Kansas State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Kansas Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 2, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| •State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All40 seats in theKansas State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained one seat in theNovember 2016 general election.
Introductions
Elections for theKansas State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on August 2, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.
Majority control
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Kansas State Senate:
| Kansas State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 8 | 9 | |
| Republican Party | 32 | 31 | |
| Total | 40 | 40 | |
Incumbents retiring
Eight incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Kay Wolf |  Republican | Senate District 7 |
| Jeff King | Republican | Senate District 15 |
| Michael O'Donnell | Republican | Senate District 25 |
| Leslie Donovan | Republican | Senate District 27 |
| Steve Abrams | Republican | Senate District 32 |
| Mitch Holmes | Republican | Senate District 33 |
| Garrett Love | Republican | Senate District 38 |
| Ralph Ostmeyer | Republican | Senate District 40 |
2016 election competitiveness
Kansas saw improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Kansas performed in the study are provided in the image below.Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In theKansas State Senate, there were eight Democratic incumbents and 32 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In theHouse, there were 28 Democratic incumbents and 97 Republican incumbents. Twenty-four state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 28 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Kansas can be foundbelow.
Primary election
In the primary elections held on August 2, 2016, six incumbents were defeated in the stateSenate, while nine incumbents were defeated in the stateHouse. Outside of the one incumbent Democrat who was defeated in the House, the other 14 incumbents who were ousted were conservative Republicans displaced by moderate Republicans running against the conservative policies of Gov.Sam Brownback (R). Before the 2016 primary, moderate Republicans had been losing ground in the state legislature, shifting from a more moderate Republican-controlled state legislature to a more conservative one after the 2012 elections. In 2012, 18 Republican incumbents were unseated.
Before the primary, there were 25 conservative incumbents in the Senate that would follow the governor's agenda. Following the primary results, the number dropped to 18 conservative members. The House saw a similar number of conservative seats change to moderate.[2]
Senate incumbents defeated
- John Skubal defeated incumbentJeff Melcher in the District 11 Republican primary by a 56-44 margin.
- Bruce Givens defeated incumbentForrest Knox in the District 14 Republican primary by a 52-48 margin.
- Dinah Sykes defeated incumbentGreg Smith in the District 21 Republican primary by a 58-42 margin.
- Randall Hardy defeated incumbentTom Arpke in the District 24 Republican primary by a 47-42 margin.
- Edward Berger defeated incumbentTerry Bruce in the District 34 Republican primary by a 57-43 margin.
- State Rep.John Doll defeated incumbentLarry Powell in the District 39 Republican primary by a 57-43 margin.
Senate leadership changes
In the past two election cycles, members of the Republican leadership had been defeated in Senate primary races. In 2016, Senate Majority LeaderTerry Bruce (R) was defeated, while Senate PresidentStephen Morris (R) was defeated in 2012.
Heading into the general election, Kansas was one of23 Republican trifecta states.Read more about party control in Kansas »
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Kansas State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 40 races in the Kansas State Senate in 2016, 37 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 28.1 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Republican candidates in the Kansas State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 31 races. In the 31 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.9 percent. Democrats won nine races in 2016. In the six races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.6 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Eight of the 37 contested races in 2016—21.6 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Five races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won six races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Kansas State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 3 D 3.1 percent District 5 R 1.9 percent District 7 R 8.6 percent District 8 R 5.6 percent District 10 R 2.6 percent District 18 D 3.2 percent District 21 R 7.9 percent District 28 R 2.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Kansas State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 26 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 23 winning Kansas State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 24.2 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Kansas State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 18 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 18 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 25.7 percent. Eight Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.9 percent. |
Kansas State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 9 18.6 percent 8 18.9 percent 3 3 33.3 percent Republican 31 29.9 percent 18 25.7 percent 0 0 N/A Total 40 28.1 percent 26 24.2 percent 3 3 7.5 percent
Click[show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Kansas State Senate districts in 2016.
| Kansas State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 16.6 percent |
| District 2 | D | 32.2 percent |
| District 3 | D | 3.1 percent |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | 1.9 percent |
| District 6 | D | 41.6 percent |
| District 7 | R | 8.6 percent |
| District 8 | R | 5.6 percent |
| District 9 | R | 20.0 percent |
| District 10 | R | 2.6 percent |
| District 11 | R | 30.0 percent |
| District 12 | R | 46.6 percent |
| District 13 | R | 12.3 percent |
| District 14 | R | 45.3 percent |
| District 15 | R | 21.8 percent |
| District 16 | R | 29.3 percent |
| District 17 | R | 18.0 percent |
| District 18 | D | 3.2 percent |
| District 19 | D | 14.6 percent |
| District 20 | R | 30.7 percent |
| District 21 | R | 7.9 percent |
| District 22 | D | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | 21.1 percent |
| District 24 | R | 18.1 percent |
| District 25 | D | 17.0 percent |
| District 26 | R | 38.9 percent |
| District 27 | R | 33.0 percent |
| District 28 | R | 2.9 percent |
| District 29 | D | Unopposed |
| District 30 | R | 17.1 percent |
| District 31 | R | 49.0 percent |
| District 32 | R | 24.5 percent |
| District 33 | R | 53.1 percent |
| District 34 | R | 64.4 percent |
| District 35 | R | 42.7 percent |
| District 36 | R | 70.3 percent |
| District 37 | R | 36.2 percent |
| District 38 | R | 51.5 percent |
| District 39 | R | 58.0 percent |
| District 40 | R | 48.5 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also:Kansas elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Kansas in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering January 1, 2015–December 31, 2015 | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline for the primary election | |
| July 25, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering January 1, 2016–July 21, 2016 | |
| July 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due for last minute contributions of $300 or more received between July 22, 2016, and July 27, 2016 | |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline for the general election | |
| August 2, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering July 22, 2016–October 27, 2016 | |
| November 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due for last minute contributions of $300 or more received between October 28, 2016, and November 2, 2016 | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 10, 2017 | Campaign finance | Report due covering October 28, 2016–December 21, 2016 | |
| Source:Kansas Governmental Ethics Commission, "2016 Election Cycle Reporting Periods and Due Dates for Campaign Finance Reports," updated April 21, 2015 Kansas Secretary of State, "2016 Election Information," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 4 of the 40 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. Four Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 36 (90.0%) of the 40 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Eleven incumbents faced primary competition on August 2. Eight incumbents did not seek re-election and another 21 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary:
- District 11:Jeff Melcher (R)
- District 14:Forrest Knox (R)
- District 21:Greg Smith (R)
- District 24:Tom Arpke (R)
- District 34:Terry Bruce (R)
- District 39:Larry Powell (R)
Retired incumbents
Eight incumbents did not run for re-election, while 32 (80.0%) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, eight Republicans, can be foundabove.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia'sCompetitiveness Index—the number ofopen seats,incumbents facing primary opposition, andgeneral elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than inrecent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Kansas' rates foropen seats, incumbents that facedprimary challenges, andmajor party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Kansas Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.4% | 18.8% | 60.0% | 29.7 | 24 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia'scompetitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Kansas in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Kansas State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2012 | 108 | $7,458,259 |
| 2008 | 98 | $6,038,988 |
Qualifications
Section 4 of Article 2 of theKansas Constitution states: "During the time that any person is a candidate for nomination or election to the legislature and during the term of each legislator, such candidate or legislator shall be and remain a qualified elector who resides in his or her district."[6]
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑kwch.com, "Primary election results show changes coming to KS politics," accessed August 4, 2016
- ↑This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑4.04.1Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Kansas," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑Kansas State Library, "Kansas Constitution," accessed March 28, 2014
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