2020 State Legislative Competitiveness
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2020 State legislative competitiveness
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Congressional •State executive

Of the 86 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2020, 23 of them—12 senate chambers and 11 house chambers—included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due toterm limits.^[2] In those 23 chambers, term limits affected 1,356 seats up for election.^[2] There are 99 chambers nationwide.

Term limits affect the members of 29 legislative chambers in 15 states. There are 1,972 state senate seats and 5,411 state house seats in the U.S. Of the 1,972 senate seats, 562 seats (29%) are subject to term limits. Of the 5,411 house seats, 1,368 seats (25%) are subject to term limits.

See also:State legislative elections, 2020

Term-limited legislators by state

The map below shows the 15 states that use term limits for state legislators. All 15 states held elections in 2020 except Louisiana.^[4] Click on a state below to see the total number of term-limited state legislators in 2020 as well as a breakdown of the totals for each legislative chamber.

States where term limits had the greatest impact

• Missouri'sSenate had the highest percentage of term-limited state senators in 2020. Eight of the 17 seats up for election in 2020 (47%) had term-limited incumbents.
• Missouri'sHouse had the highest percentage term-limited state representatives in 2020. 34 of the 163 seats up for election in 2020 (21%) had term-limited incumbents.

States where term limits had the least impact

• No incumbents in theArkansas Senate were affected by term limits in 2020. InOklahoma, one out of the 24 senate seats up for election in 2020 (4%) had a term-limited incumbent.
• No incumbents were affected by term limits in both theArkansas House andCalifornia Assembly in 2020. InNevada, one out of the 42 assembly seats up for election in 2020 (2%) had a term-limited incumbent.

Democratic and Republican term-limited incumbents

Term limits can often affect the competitiveness of a state legislative election because term limits create open seats. Open seats are believed to be more electorally competitive than seats in which an incumbent is running for re-election because incumbents tend to win re-election. A2015 study by Ballotpedia found that in state legislative elections between 1972 and 2014, the incumbency win rate never fell below 90 percent, with the exception of 1974 when 88 percent of incumbents won re-election.

204 state legislators associated with either the Democratic or Republican parties—82 Democratic and 122 Republican—were term-limited in 2020. Seven minor-party or independent incumbents were also term-limited.

Senate

60 state senators—21 Democrats, 33 Republican, and six nonpartisan—were term-limited in 2020. Going into the November elections,Democrats had majorities in four of the 12 term-limited state senates.Republicans had majorities in seven of the 12 state senates.^[5] Nebraska's state Senate is term-limited and officiallynonpartisan.

Three state senates—California,Maine, andNevada—had more term-limited Democrats than Republicans. Six state senates—Colorado,Florida,Missouri,Ohio,Oklahoma,andSouth Dakota—had more term-limited Republicans than Democrats. Two states—Arizona andMontana—had an equal number of term-limited Democrats and Republicans.

2020 term-limited state senate elections
State	Majority party	Democratic term-limited	Republican term-limited	Nonpartisan term-limited	Seats up in 2020	% of seats
Arizona	Republican	1	1	0	30	6.7%
Arkansas	Republican	0	0	0	17	0.0%
California	Democratic	5	1	0	20	30.0%
Colorado	Democratic	1	3	0	18	22.2%
Florida	Republican	2	5	0	20	35.0%
Maine	Democratic	2	1	0	35	8.6%
Missouri	Republican	3	5	0	17	47.1%
Montana	Republican	5	5	0	25	40.0%
Nebraska	Nonpartisan[6]	0	0	6	25	24.0%
Nevada	Democratic	2	0	0	10	20.0%
Ohio	Republican	0	5	0	16	31.3%
Oklahoma	Republican	0	1	0	24	4.2%
South Dakota	Republican	0	6	0	35	17.1%
Total	---	21	33	6	292	20.5%

House

151 state representatives—61 Democratic, 89 Republican, and one independent—were term-limited in 2020. Going into the November elections,Democrats had majorities in three of the 11 term-limited state houses.Republicans had majorities in eight of the 11 state house of representatives.^[7]

Two state houses—Maine andMichigan—had more term-limited Democrats than Republicans. Nine state houses—Arizona,Colorado,Florida,Missouri,Montana,Nevada,Ohio,Oklahoma, andSouth Dakota—had more term-limited Republicans than Democrats.

2020 term-limited state house elections
State	Majority party	Democratic term-limited	Republican term-limited	Nonpartisan term-limited	Seats up in 2020	% of seats
Arizona	Republican	1	4	0	60	8.3%
Arkansas	Republican	0	0	0	100	0.0%
California	Democratic	0	0	0	80	0.0%
Colorado	Democratic	4	5	0	65	13.8%
Florida	Republican	7	11	0	120	15.0%
Maine	Democratic	18	3	1	151	14.6%
Michigan	Republican	12	10	0	110	20.0%
Missouri	Republican	6	28	0	163	20.9%
Montana	Republican	7	9	0	100	16.0%
Nevada	Democratic	0	1	0	42	2.4%
Ohio	Republican	4	8	0	99	12.1%
Oklahoma	Republican	0	4	0	101	4.0%
South Dakota	Republican	2	6	0	70	11.4%
Total	---	61	89	1	1261	12.0%

State senators

See also:Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2020

There were 43 state senates that held general elections in 2020. In 13 of these states, state senators wereterm-limited. Louisiana and Michigan were the only states with state senate term limits that did not have a general election in 2020.

60 state senators wereterm-limited. This represented22% of the 275 seats up for election in the 12 term-limited state senates with elections on Nov. 3.^[5] This included:

• 21 incumbent Democratic state senators
• 33 incumbent Republican state senators
• 6 nonpartisan state senators^[8]

Some of the 60 state senators listed below may have resigned before their term ended. These officials were still counted in the total number of term-limited state senators in 2020.

State representatives

See also:Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2020

There were 43 state houses that held general elections in 2020. In 13 of these states, state representatives wereterm-limited. Louisiana did not hold state house elections in 2020 and Nebraska does not have a state house.

151 state representatives were term-limited in 2020. This represented14% of the 1,081 seats up for election in the 11 term-limited state houses with elections on Nov. 3.^[7] This included:

• 61 incumbent Democratic state representatives
• 89 incumbent Republican state representatives
• 1 incumbent independent state representative

Some of the 151 state representatives listed below may have resigned before their term ended. These officials were still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2020.

Year-to-year comparisons

Overview

The table below shows term-limited state legislators by year from 2010 to 2020. Between those years, 1,672 state legislators were term-limited. Republicans had 181 more term-limited legislators than Democrats.

• Democratic legislators term-limited: 717
• Republican legislators term-limited: 898
• Nonpartisan legislators term-limited: 57

Term-limited state legislators by year
Year	Dem. senators	Rep. senators	Nonpartisan sentators	Dem. representatives	Rep. representatives	Nonpartisan representatives	Total term-limited
2020	21	33	6	61	89	1	211
2019	4	12	0	13	17	1	47
2018	28	62	6	58	115	2	271
2017	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2016	29	26	12	84	102	0	253
2015	3	4	0	7	7	0	21
2014	22	24	17	73	87	0	223
2013	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2012	35	40	8	87	85	0	255
2011	5	1	0	5	4	1	16
2010	54	66	1	128	124	2	375
Total	201	268	50	516	630	7	1,672

2020

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2020

In 2020, 211 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. A total of 60 state senators were term-limited in 2020. A total of 151 state representatives were termed out in 2020.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2020 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

2019

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2019

In 2019, 47 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits.Louisiana was the only state holding elections for a term-limited legislature in 2019.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2019 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

2018

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2018

In 2018, 271 state legislators were termed out in state senates and state houses combined. A total of 96 state senators were term-limited in 2018. A total of 175 state representatives were termed out in 2018.

As a result ofterm limits in the2018 state legislative elections, more Republican legislators were ineligible to run than Democratic legislators.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

Chambers

The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2018.

Post-election results

Thirty-five of the 271 term-limited seats (12.9%) changed partisan control in the 2018 elections. Democrats had a net gain of 15 seats and Republicans had a net loss of 13 seats. Ten seats switched from Democrat to Republican, 23 seats flipped from Republican to Democrat, and two seats changed from independent to Democrat.^[10]

Nebraska senators are officially nonpartisan. Five Nebraska senators term-limited in 2018 were affiliated with the Republican Party, while the other was affiliated with the Democratic Party. The Nebraska senators were counted as major party incumbents in the post-election results.

2017

No states with term limits held elections in 2017.

2016

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2016

In2016, 253 state legislators were termed out in state senates and state houses combined. A total of 67 state senators were termed out in 2016. This represented 20.2 percent of the 331 total state senate seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state senates with elections in November 2016. A total of 186 state representatives were termed out. This represented 14.8 percent of the 1,261 total seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state houses with elections in November 2016.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2016 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

Chambers

The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2016.

2015

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2015

In 2015, 21 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits.Louisiana was the only state holding elections for a term-limited legislature in 2015.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2015 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

2014

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2014

In2014, a total of 223 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. This was14 percent of the 1,592 state legislative seats up for election in the14 term-limited states with 2014 elections, and 3.7 percent of the 6,047 state legislative seats that were up for election altogether in2014, including the non-term-limited states.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2014 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

Chambers

The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2014.

2013

No states with term limits held elections in 2013.

2012

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2012

In 2012, 255 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. This was 14.3 percent of the 1,786 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2012 elections, and about 4 percent of the 6,015 state legislative seats that were up for election altogether in 2012, including the non-term-limited states.

In 2012, the last election cycle in which the same seats were up for election as 2016, Republicans had a marginal disadvantage in terms of the number incumbents lost to term limits as well as the number of chambers in which each party saw more members lost to term limits. However, Democrats lost one more state representative than Republicans did during this cycle.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2012 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

Chambers

The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2012.

2011

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2011

In 2011, 16 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits.Louisiana was the only state withterm limits that held an election in 2011. The 16 state legislators termed-out in 2011 made up 10.4 percent of the total legislative seats up for election in Louisiana.

There were sixstate senators termed-out in 2011, making up 15.4 percent of the39 state senate seats up for election in 2011. There were tenstate representatives termed-out in 2011, making up 9.5 percent of the105 state representative seats up for election in 2011.

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2011 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

2010

See also:Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010

In 2010, 375 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits. This was 23 percent of the 1,600 state legislative seats up for election in the14 term-limited states with 2010 elections.

TheRepublican Party had more members impacted byterm limits in the2010 state legislative elections than the Democratic Party, both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party lost (190, versus 182 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers lost more Republicans (13, versus 10 for the Democratic Party).

Incumbents

The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2010 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

Chambers

The following table detailed the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits in 2010.

See also

• State legislatures with term limits
• State legislative elections, 2020
• Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2020
• Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2020
• Term limits on the ballot
• Term limits in the United States

Footnotes

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