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Georgia State Senate elections, 2018

From Ballotpedia

2020
2016
2018 Georgia
Senate elections
Flag of Georgia.png
GeneralNovember 6, 2018
PrimaryMay 22, 2018
Primary RunoffJuly 24, 2018
Past election results
20162014201220102008
2006200420022000
2018 elections
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Republicans maintained their majority in theGeorgia State Senate in the 2018 elections, winning35 seats toDemocrats'21. All56 Senate seats were up for election in 2018. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled37 seats and Democrats controlled19.

Republicans maintained theirtrifecta in Georgia by holding thestate House, the state Senate, and thegovernor's office.

Georgia state senators servetwo-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.

The Georgia State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. In2017, three chambers in Virginia and New Jersey were up for election. In2016, 86 out of 99 legislative chambers held elections. Prior to 2018, the Georgia State Senate last held elections in2016.

Democratic PartyFor more information about the Democratic primary,click here.
Republican PartyFor more information about the Republican primary,click here.

Post-election analysis

See also:State legislative elections, 2018

The Republican Party maintained control of both chambers of the Georgia General Assembly in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, all 56 seats were up for election. The Republican majority in the Georgia State Senate was reduced from 37-19 to 35-21. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and one Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.

The Georgia House of Representatives held elections for all 180 seats. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives was reduced from 114-64 to 105-75. Two seats were vacant before the election. Three Democratic incumbents and three Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary. Nine incumbents were defeated in the general election; two Democrats and seven Republicans.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

  • Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

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Candidates

See also:Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

Georgia State Senate elections, 2018

  • Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name.
  • Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
OfficeDemocratic Party DemocraticRepublican Party RepublicanOther
District 1

Sandra Workman

Green check mark transparent.pngBen Watson (i)

District 2

Green check mark transparent.pngLester Jackson (i)

District 3

Jerrold Dagen Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam Ligon (i)

District 4

Green check mark transparent.pngJack Hill (i)

District 5

Green check mark transparent.pngSheikh Rahman

District 6

Green check mark transparent.pngJen Jordan (i)

Leah Aldridge

District 7

Green check mark transparent.pngTyler Harper (i)

District 8

Green check mark transparent.pngEllis Black (i)

District 9

Cheryle Moses

Green check mark transparent.pngP.K. Martin (i)

District 10

Green check mark transparent.pngEmanuel Jones (i)

District 11

Green check mark transparent.pngDean Burke (i)

District 12

Green check mark transparent.pngFreddie Sims (i)

District 13

Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Kirk (i)

District 14

Rachel Kinsey

Green check mark transparent.pngBruce Thompson (i)

District 15

Green check mark transparent.pngEd Harbison (i)

District 16

Bill Lightle

Green check mark transparent.pngMarty Harbin (i)

District 17

Phyllis Hatcher

Green check mark transparent.pngBrian Strickland (i)

District 18

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Kennedy (i)

District 19

Green check mark transparent.pngBlake Tillery (i)

District 20

Green check mark transparent.pngLarry Walker (i)

District 21

Nicole Nash

Green check mark transparent.pngBrandon Beach (i)

District 22

Green check mark transparent.pngHarold Jones (i)

District 23

Green check mark transparent.pngJesse Stone (i)

District 24

Green check mark transparent.pngLee Anderson (i)

District 25

Green check mark transparent.pngBurt Jones (i)

District 26

Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Lucas Sr. (i)

District 27

Steve Smith

Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Dolezal

District 28

Green check mark transparent.pngMatt Brass (i)

District 29

Valerie Haskins

Green check mark transparent.pngRandy Robertson

District 30

Green check mark transparent.pngMike Dugan (i)

District 31

Green check mark transparent.pngBill Heath (i)

District 32

Christine Triebsch

Green check mark transparent.pngKay Kirkpatrick (i) Candidate Connection

District 33

Green check mark transparent.pngMichael Rhett (i)

District 34

Green check mark transparent.pngValencia Seay (i)

Tommy Smith

District 35

Green check mark transparent.pngDonzella James (i)

District 36

Green check mark transparent.pngNan Orrock (i)

District 37

Andy Clark Candidate Connection

Green check mark transparent.pngLindsey Tippins (i)

District 38

Green check mark transparent.pngHoracena Tate (i)

Travis Klavohn

District 39

Green check mark transparent.pngNikema Williams (i)

District 40

Green check mark transparent.pngSally Harrell

Fran Millar (i)

District 41

Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Henson (i)

District 42

Green check mark transparent.pngElena Parent (i)

District 43

Green check mark transparent.pngTonya Anderson (i)

District 44

Green check mark transparent.pngGail Davenport (i)

District 45

Jana Rodgers

Green check mark transparent.pngRenee Unterman (i)

District 46

Marisue Hilliard

Green check mark transparent.pngBill Cowsert (i)

District 47

Dawn Johnson

Green check mark transparent.pngFrank Ginn (i)

District 48

Green check mark transparent.pngZahra Karinshak

Matt Reeves

District 49

Green check mark transparent.pngButch Miller (i)

District 50

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Wilkinson (i)

District 51

Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Gooch (i)

District 52

Evan Ross

Green check mark transparent.pngChuck Hufstetler (i)

District 53

Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Mullis (i)

District 54

Michael Morgan

Green check mark transparent.pngChuck Payne (i)

District 55

Green check mark transparent.pngGloria Butler (i)

Annette Davis Jackson

District 56

Ellyn Jeager

Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Albers (i)

Write-in candidates

Primary election candidates

The candidate list below is based on the list provided by the Georgia Secretary of State. The filing deadline for the May primary was on March 9, 2018. (I) denotes an incumbent.[2]

Georgia State Senate primary candidates
DistrictDemocratic Party

Democrat

Republican Party

Republican

Other
1Sandra WorkmanApprovedaBen Watson(I)Approveda
2Lester Jackson(I)Approveda
3Jerrold DagenApprovedaWilliam Ligon(I)Approveda
4Jack Hill(I)Approveda
5Curt Thompson(I)
Sheikh RahmanApproveda
6Jen Jordan(I)ApprovedaJohn Gordon
Leah AldridgeApproveda
7Tyler Harper(I)Approveda
8Ellis Black(I)Approveda
9Cheryle MosesApprovedaP.K. Martin(I)Approveda
10Emanuel Jones(I)Approveda
11Dean Burke(I)Approveda
12Freddie Sims(I)Approveda
13Greg Kirk(I)Approveda
14Rachel KinseyApprovedaBruce Thompson(I)Approveda
15Ed Harbison(I)Approveda
16Bill LightleApprovedaMarty Harbin(I)Approveda
Tricia Stearns
17Phyllis HatcherApprovedaBrian Strickland(I)Approveda
Nelva Lee
18John F. Kennedy(I)Approveda
19Blake Tillery(I)Approveda
20Larry Walker(I)Approveda
21Nicole NashApprovedaBrandon Beach(I)Approveda
22Harold V. Jones II(I)Approveda
23Jesse Stone(I)Approveda
24Lee Anderson(I)Approveda
25Burt Jones(I)Approveda
26David E. Lucas Sr.(I)Approveda
27Steve SmithApprovedaBill Fielder
Brian Tam
Greg DolezalApproveda
28Matt Brass(I)Approveda
29Ben Anderson
Valerie HaskinsApproveda
Mayo Hadden
Randy RobertsonApproveda
30Mike Dugan(I)Approveda
31Bill Heath(I)Approveda
32Christine TriebschApprovedaKay Kirkpatrick(I)Approveda
33Michael A. Rhett(I)Approveda
34Melody Totten
Valencia Seay(I)Approveda
Tommy SmithApproveda
35Donzella James(I)Approveda
Karen Ashley
Mike Glanton Jr.
36Nan Orrock(I)Approveda
37Andy ClarkApprovedaLindsey Tippins(I)Approveda
38Horacena Tate(I)ApprovedaTravis KlavohnApproveda
39Nikema Williams(I)Approveda
40Sally HarrellApproveda
Tamara Johnson-Shealey
Fran Millar(I)Approveda
41Sabrina Mckenzie
Steve Henson(I)Approveda
42Elena Parent(I)Approveda
43Joel Thibodeaux
Tonya Anderson(I)Approveda
44Gail Davenport(I)Approveda
Keith Horton
Sandra Daniels
45Jana RodgersApprovedaRenee Unterman(I)Approveda
46Marisue HilliardApprovedaBill Cowsert(I)Approveda
47Dawn JohnsonApprovedaFrank Ginn(I)Approveda
Scott Howard
48Zahra KarinshakApprovedaMatt ReevesApproveda
49Butch Miller(I)Approveda
50John Wilkinson(I)Approveda
51Steve Gooch(I)Approveda
52Evan RossApprovedaChuck Hufstetler(I)Approveda
53Jeff Mullis(I)Approveda
54Michael MorganApprovedaChuck Payne(I)Approveda
J. Scott Tidwell
55Gloria Butler(I)ApprovedaAnnette Davis JacksonApproveda
56Ellyn JeagerApproveda
Jim Guess Jr.
Patrick Thompson
John Albers(I)Approveda
Notes• An(I) denotes an incumbent.
• Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email ourElections Team.

Margins of victory

See also:Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

Amargin of victory (MOV) analysis for the2018 Georgia State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

  • Elections won
  • Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
  • Elections won without opposition
  • Average margin of victory[3]
Georgia State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
PartyElections wonElections won by less than 10%Unopposed electionsAverage margin of victory[3]
Democratic PartyDemocratic
21
2
15
38.0%
Republican PartyRepublican
35
3
18
28.2%
Grey.png Other
0
0
0
N/A
Total
56
5
33
33.1%



The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

Georgia State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
DistrictWinning PartyLosing PartyMargin of Victory
Georgia State Senate District 9
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
3.9%
Georgia State Senate District 56
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
5.0%
Georgia State Senate District 48
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
Ends.pngRepublican
7.2%
Georgia State Senate District 17
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
8.9%
Georgia State Senate District 40
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
Ends.pngRepublican
9.5%
Georgia State Senate District 32
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
14.7%
Georgia State Senate District 45
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
16.1%
Georgia State Senate District 6
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
Ends.pngRepublican
16.8%
Georgia State Senate District 37
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
17.8%
Georgia State Senate District 46
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
20.8%
Georgia State Senate District 1
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
21.6%
Georgia State Senate District 29
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
26.0%
Georgia State Senate District 47
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
32.9%
Georgia State Senate District 3
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
35.8%
Georgia State Senate District 16
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
36.3%
Georgia State Senate District 21
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
40.8%
Georgia State Senate District 14
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
42.1%
Georgia State Senate District 27
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
45.3%
Georgia State Senate District 52
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
51.6%
Georgia State Senate District 54
Ends.pngRepublican
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
59.3%
Georgia State Senate District 55
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
Ends.pngRepublican
63.1%
Georgia State Senate District 38
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
Ends.pngRepublican
65.7%
Georgia State Senate District 34
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
Ends.pngRepublican
65.7%
Georgia State Senate District 10
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 11
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 12
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 13
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 15
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 18
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 19
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 2
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 20
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 22
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 23
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 24
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 25
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 26
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 28
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 30
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 31
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 33
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 36
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 39
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 4
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 42
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 49
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 50
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 51
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 53
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 7
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 8
Ends.pngRepublican
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 5
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 35
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 41
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 43
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed
Georgia State Senate District 44
Electiondot.pngDemocratic
None
Unopposed


Seats flipped

See also:State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018

The below map displays each seat in theGeorgia State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.

State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Georgia State Senate
DistrictIncumbent2018 winnerDirection of flip
Georgia State Senate District 40Republican PartyFran MillarDemocratic PartySally HarrellR to D
Georgia State Senate District 48Republican PartyDavid ShaferDemocratic PartyZahra KarinshakR to D

Incumbents retiring

Three incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[4] Those incumbents were:

NamePartyCurrent Office
Michael E. WilliamsEnds.pngRepublicanSenate District 27
Joshua McKoonEnds.pngRepublicanSenate District 29
David ShaferEnds.pngRepublicanSenate District 48

Process to become a candidate

See also:Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Georgia


DocumentIcon.jpgSee statutes:Title 21, Chapter 2, Article 4 of the Georgia Code

There are four ways for a candidate to gain ballot access inGeorgia: as a political party candidate, as a political organization candidate, as an independent candidate or as a write-in.

Requirements for all candidates

All candidates are required to pay a filing fee; filing fees vary from year-to-year. In lieu of a filing fee, a candidate may submit a pauper's affidavit and qualifying petition, which certifies that the candidate is unable to pay the fee. The affidavit includes a financial statement that lists the candidate's total income, assets, liabilities, and other relevant financial information. This information must indicate that the candidate has neither the assets nor the income to pay the qualifying fee normally required. The pauper's affidavit must be accompanied by a qualifying petition containing signatures as follows:[5]

  • One-fourth of 1 percent of the total number of registered voters eligible to vote in the last general election if the candidate is seeking statewide office
  • 1 percent of the total number of registered voters eligible to vote in the last election for the office being sought by the candidate if the candidate is seeking an office other than statewide office

Political party candidates

A political party candidate is nominated at his or her party's primary election. An individual cannot become a political party candidate if he or she has already qualified for the same primary election with a different political party, or if he or she has filed as an independent or political organization candidate. Political parties determine the rules for qualifying to appear on the primary election ballot. However, there are some stipulations set by the state to which all political party candidates must adhere. These include the following:[6][7][8]

  • filing a declaration of candidacy and an affidavit with the political party during the political party qualifying period, which is set by theGeorgia Secretary of State; the affidavit must state the following:
    • the name of the candidate as he or she wishes it to appear on the ballot
    • the candidate’s residence
    • the candidate’s occupation
    • the candidate’s precinct
    • that the candidate is eligible to vote in the primary in which he or she is running
    • the office the candidate is seeking
    • that the candidate is eligible to hold the office he or she is seeking
    • that the candidate will not knowingly violate any election rule or law
    • that the candidate has never been convicted or sentenced for violation of election laws, malfeasance in office or a felony involving moral turpitude, or, if the candidate has been convicted and sentenced for such crimes, that at least 10 years have passed since completion of the sentence and that the candidate's civil rights have been restored
  • paying the qualifying fee or submitting a pauper's affidavit and the accompanying qualifying petition

Within three days of the end of the qualifying period, a political party must certify to theGeorgia Secretary of State a list of those candidates who successfully qualified with the party for the primary election and turn in the qualifying fees paid by the candidates, the declarations of candidacy, and the affidavits.[9]

Political organization candidates

A political organization candidate can be nominated by his or her organization's convention, if the political organization has qualified to hold such a convention, or by petition. A candidate cannot file as a political organization candidate if he or she has already filed for the same office as a political party candidate.[7]

If nominated by convention, a political organization candidate must file a notice of candidacy with theGeorgia Secretary of State during the political party qualifying period. After a candidate is chosen at the convention, the candidate must pay the filing fee for the corresponding office to theGeorgia Secretary of State. If the candidate cannot afford the filing fee, he or she must file a pauper's affidavit and accompanying qualifying petition. With the filing fee or pauper's affidavit, a certified copy of the minutes of the convention, attested to by the chairperson and secretary of the convention, must also be filed.[5][10]

If nominated by petition, a political organization candidate must file a notice of candidacy, petition, and qualifying fee (or pauper's affidavit) with theGeorgia Secretary of State during the independent candidate qualifying period, which starts on the fourth Monday in June and ends the following Friday. The signature requirements for these petitions are the same as those for independent candidates, which are listed below. In order for a candidate filing by petition to be recognized as a political organization candidate, the political organization must provide a sworn certificate stating that the named candidate is the nominee of that political organization.[5][11]

Independent candidates

A candidate cannot run as an independent if he or she has qualified for the same office with any political party or political organization. An independent candidate must file a notice of candidacy, petition, and qualifying fee (or pauper's affidavit) with theGeorgia Secretary of State during the independent candidate qualifying period, which starts on the fourth Monday in June and ends the following Friday. The signature requirements for the petitions are as follows:[5][7][11]

  • For a candidate seeking statewide office, the petition must be signed by registered voters equal in number to 1 percent of the total registered voters eligible to vote in the last election for the same office the candidate is seeking.
  • For candidates seeking any other office, the petition must be signed by registered voters equal in number to 5 percent of the total registered voters eligible to vote in the last election for the same office the candidate is seeking.

Petitions cannot be circulated for more than 180 days between the signing of the first signature and the last.[11]

Write-in candidates

A write-in candidate can only run in the general election. A candidate cannot run as a write-in if he or she ran for the same office as a political party candidate in the immediately preceding primary election. A write-in candidate must file a notice of intention of write-in candidacy with theGeorgia Secretary of State no earlier than January 1 in the year of the election and no later than the first Monday in September in the year of the election. After the notice of intention is filed, a notice must also be published in a newspaper with general circulation in the state. Once this notice has been published, the candidate must file with theGeorgia Secretary of State a copy of the published notice, as well as an affidavit stating that the notice has been published. The affidavit can be filled out by the candidate or by the publisher or an employee of the newspaper.[12]

Qualifications

See also:State legislature candidate requirements by state

According to theGeorgia Constitution, Georgia Senators must be at least 25 years old, American citizens, Georgia citizens for at least two years and a resident of his or her Senatorial District for at least one year immediately preceding election.

Salaries and per diem

See also:Comparison of state legislative salaries
State legislative salaries, 2025[13]
SalaryPer diem
$25,315.32/year$247/day

When sworn in

See also:When state legislators assume office after a general election

Georgia legislators assume office the second Monday in January.[14]

Georgia political history

See also:Partisan composition of state senates andState government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, the Republican majority in the Georgia State Senate was reduced from 37-19 to 35-21.

Georgia State Senate
PartyAs of November 6, 2018After November 7, 2018
    Democratic Party1921
    Republican Party3735
Total5656

2016

In 2016, Republicans lost one seat, shrinking their advantage from 39-17 to 38-18.

Prior to the 2000s, Democrats maintained control in both chambers of the General Assembly. The Senate moved to a Republican majority in 2002. Republicans took control of the House in 2004.

Georgia State Senate
PartyAs of November 7, 2016After November 8, 2016
    Democratic Party1718
    Republican Party3938
Total5656

Trifectas

Astate government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Georgia gained astate government trifecta as a result of the 2004 elections, when they took control of the state House. They took control of the governor's office and the state Senate following the 2002 elections.

Georgia Party Control: 1992-2026
Eleven years of Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year9293949596979899000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526
GovernorDDDDDDDDDDDRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
SenateDDDDDDDDDDDRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
HouseDDDDDDDDDDDDDRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Wave election analysis

See also:Wave elections (1918-2016)

The termwave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makessignificant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from PresidentWoodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 toDonald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016.We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition tostate legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose494 seats for 2018 to qualify as awave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016.Click here to read the full report.

State legislative wave elections
YearPresidentPartyElection typeState legislative seats changeElections analyzed[15]
1932HooverRPresidential-1,0227,365
1922HardingRFirst midterm-9076,907
1966JohnsonDFirst midterm[16]-7827,561
1938RooseveltDSecond midterm-7697,179
1958EisenhowerRSecond midterm-7027,627
2010ObamaDFirst midterm-7027,306
1974FordRSecond midterm[17]-6957,481
1920WilsonDPresidential-6546,835
1930HooverRPresidential-6407,361
1954EisenhowerRFirst midterm-4947,513

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Click here to read the full study »


Historical context

See also:Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

F5 Pop. % with uncontested state legislative races.png

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia'scompetitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Pivot Counties

See also:Pivot Counties by state

Five of 159 Georgia counties—3.14 percent—arepivot counties. These are counties that voted forBarack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and forDonald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
CountyTrump margin of victory in 2016Obama margin of victory in 2012Obama margin of victory in 2008
Baker County, Georgia8.68%0.57%1.07%
Dooly County, Georgia2.05%6.98%3.53%
Peach County, Georgia2.91%7.48%6.75%
Quitman County, Georgia10.92%9.04%7.90%
Twiggs County, Georgia1.58%8.64%6.97%

In the 2016 presidential election,Donald Trump (R) won Georgia with 50.8 percent of the vote.Hillary Clinton (D) received 45.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Georgia voted Democratic 63.33 percent of the time and Republican 36.67 percent of the time. Georgia voted Republican in every presidential election from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Georgia. Click[show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled byDaily Kos.[18][19]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 18 out of 56 state Senate districts in Georgia with an average margin of victory of 49.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 21 out of 56 state Senate districts in Georgia with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 38 out of 56 state Senate districts in Georgia with an average margin of victory of 34.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 35 out of 56 state Senate districts in Georgia with an average margin of victory of 35.4 points.
2016 presidential results by state Senate District
DistrictObamaRomney2012 MarginClintonTrump2016 MarginParty Control
136.68%62.28%R+25.637.42%59.38%R+22R
271.82%27.15%D+44.770.63%26.31%D+44.3D
335.07%63.81%R+28.731.69%65.79%R+34.1R
433.08%65.80%R+32.729.35%67.84%R+38.5R
568.70%30.05%D+38.772.34%24.32%D+48D
645.58%52.92%R+7.355.38%39.80%D+15.6D
728.95%70.10%R+41.224.03%74.43%R+50.4R
841.75%57.41%R+15.736.71%61.10%R+24.4R
935.04%63.51%R+28.543.13%52.97%R+9.8R
1078.63%20.86%D+57.878.91%19.33%D+59.6D
1138.94%60.35%R+21.434.78%63.64%R+28.9R
1264.60%34.91%D+29.762.31%36.40%D+25.9D
1334.63%64.69%R+30.130.32%67.98%R+37.7R
1424.36%73.84%R+49.525.25%70.49%R+45.2R
1572.45%27.00%D+45.468.37%29.72%D+38.7D
1629.34%69.42%R+40.130.18%66.82%R+36.6R
1738.54%60.50%R+2240.82%56.50%R+15.7R
1837.47%61.63%R+24.236.26%61.42%R+25.2R
1932.10%66.85%R+34.826.78%71.47%R+44.7R
2035.17%63.87%R+28.733.52%63.95%R+30.4R
2122.40%75.95%R+53.527.11%68.37%R+41.3R
2271.69%27.62%D+44.170.20%27.44%D+42.8D
2342.92%56.25%R+13.340.09%58.00%R+17.9R
2430.63%68.21%R+37.629.60%67.47%R+37.9R
2536.56%62.53%R+2633.37%64.41%R+31R
2669.98%29.42%D+40.666.38%31.97%D+34.4D
2717.90%80.63%R+62.724.19%71.61%R+47.4R
2827.04%71.68%R+44.626.14%70.53%R+44.4R
2936.76%62.33%R+25.635.73%61.65%R+25.9R
3031.07%67.60%R+36.530.10%66.85%R+36.8R
3125.36%73.39%R+4823.96%73.27%R+49.3R
3231.48%66.67%R+35.240.42%54.49%R+14.1R
3357.80%40.94%D+16.961.07%35.43%D+25.6D
3479.18%20.30%D+58.979.12%18.96%D+60.2D
3574.22%25.14%D+49.176.00%21.88%D+54.1D
3685.87%12.65%D+73.287.68%8.98%D+78.7D
3731.83%66.57%R+34.737.32%58.24%R+20.9R
3878.34%20.69%D+57.680.51%16.42%D+64.1D
3983.55%15.59%D+6885.10%11.98%D+73.1D
4044.12%54.27%R+10.154.01%41.15%D+12.9R
4174.88%23.96%D+50.976.95%20.03%D+56.9D
4271.46%26.71%D+44.777.68%18.09%D+59.6D
4371.46%27.89%D+43.672.06%26.01%D+46D
4485.49%13.93%D+71.685.45%12.57%D+72.9D
4531.28%67.21%R+35.937.09%58.56%R+21.5R
4636.03%62.30%R+26.338.14%58.02%R+19.9R
4732.27%65.98%R+33.731.39%64.96%R+33.6R
4841.50%56.96%R+15.550.56%45.26%D+5.3R
4920.95%77.67%R+56.722.83%73.86%R+51R
5018.59%80.12%R+61.516.29%81.10%R+64.8R
5117.26%81.33%R+64.115.52%81.81%R+66.3R
5226.51%72.08%R+45.623.50%73.54%R+50R
5323.96%74.24%R+50.317.78%79.02%R+61.2R
5423.35%75.14%R+51.820.30%76.91%R+56.6R
5575.63%23.69%D+51.977.68%20.13%D+57.5D
5637.41%60.92%R+23.545.81%49.23%R+3.4R
Total45.51%53.33%R+7.845.89%51.05%R+5.2-
Source:Daily Kos


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 1.01.1The registration deadline was extended to October 16, 2018, in Clay, Grady, Randolph, and Turner counties by executive order of Gov. Nathan Deal in response to Hurricane Michael.
  2. Georgia Secretary of State, "Qualifying Candidate Information," accessed March 13, 2018
  3. 3.03.1Excludes unopposed elections
  4. Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
  5. 5.05.15.25.3Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-132," accessed February 5, 2014
  6. Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-151," accessed March 6, 2025
  7. 7.07.17.2Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-137," accessed March 6, 2025
  8. Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-153," accessed March 6, 2025
  9. Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-154," accessed March 6, 2025
  10. Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-172," accessed March 6, 2025
  11. 11.011.111.2Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-170," accessed March 6, 2025
  12. Georgia Code, "Section 21-2-133," accessed March 6, 2025
  13. National Conference of State Legislatures, "2025 Legislator Compensation," December 2, 2025
  14. Georgia Secretary of State, "Georgia Constitution - Article III, Section IV, Paragraph I," accessed February 12, 2021
  15. The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
  16. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  17. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  18. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  19. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Current members of theGeorgia State Senate
Leadership
Majority Leader:Jason Anavitarte
Minority Leader:Harold Jones
Senators
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Vacant
District 19
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Vacant
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Republican Party (31)
Democratic Party (23)
Vacancies (2)


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