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Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014 (Data)

From Ballotpedia
Main analysis:Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Figure 1

Figure 1: Pop. % with Marginal Races
YearState Senate 5% MarginalityState Senate 10% MarginalityState House 5% MarginalityState House 10% Marginality
19685.412.08.415.5
196931.631.69.723.4
197010.320.39.417.6
19719.321.414.226.6
19728.816.99.717.9
19736.129.213.525.9
197410.117.39.117.6
19756.914.39.017.3
197613.021.86.714.7
19776.212.38.620.9
19786.813.97.113.9
197910.516.98.317.9
19809.817.46.913.6
198110.618.47.118.4
19828.917.26.813.7
19838.116.25.411.9
19847.413.55.911.6
19857.319.8
19867.712.15.610.5
19878.717.26.715.9
19885.212.35.610.5
198950.050.012.222.0
19907.717.76.312.5
199112.523.88.418.8
19928.214.97.914.3
199312.717.76.113.4
19948.716.77.213.3
19959.624.05.815.9
19969.215.86.712.6
19972.517.77.311.6
19984.611.44.810.3
19995.210.35.08.1
20006.412.74.710.7
200110.015.05.213.4
20025.712.55.411.0
20032.49.55.412.0
20045.29.45.110.7
20055.211.8
20067.212.76.311.9
20078.313.27.412.2
20085.711.36.512.4
20090.00.08.213.4
20107.614.66.313.0
20116.814.54.110.5
20125.412.36.913.9
20137.512.58.714.5
20145.012.04.910.2

Figure 2

Figure 2: Pop. % with Marginal Legislative Races
YearState Legislature 5% MarginalityState Legislature 10% Marginality
19686.913.8
196913.624.8
19709.918.9
197111.523.8
19729.217.4
19739.527.7
19749.617.4
19758.015.9
19769.818.3
19777.316.4
19787.013.9
19799.417.4
19808.315.4
19818.618.4
19827.915.5
19837.114.6
19846.712.5
19857.319.8
19866.711.3
19877.916.7
19885.411.4
198913.222.8
19907.015.0
199110.721.6
19928.014.6
19939.515.7
19948.015.0
19957.719.9
19968.014.2
19974.814.8
19984.710.9
19995.19.2
20005.511.6
20016.914.0
20025.511.8
20033.610.5
20045.110.1
20055.211.8
20066.712.3
20078.012.8
20086.111.8
20098.013.1
20106.913.8
20115.612.7
20126.113.1
20138.113.5
20144.911.1

Figure 3

Figure 3: Pop. % with Marginal Races vs. % of Southern Democratic Legislators
YearSouthern State Legislature 5% MarginalitySouthern State Legislature 10% MarginalitySouthern Percent of State Legislature who are Democrats
19683.69.085.2
196910.023.084.4
19705.311.185.5
19716.110.685.5
19726.311.081.6
197310.720.581.8
19745.29.186.6
19756.714.186.6
19765.39.487.7
19778.019.087.2
19784.19.285.1
19799.216.083.9
19808.514.380.0
198110.026.079.5
19825.59.381.7
19833.811.781.5
19846.19.976.9
19852.08.077.1
19867.511.274.4
19879.314.574.0
19886.011.871.0
19897.012.070.5
19907.213.370.2
199111.021.568.5
19928.314.865.1
19936.013.064.4
19947.613.058.4
19957.719.556.6
19969.913.954.9
19977.09.054.2
19985.39.253.6
19995.39.553.7
20004.710.652.3
20014.013.051.7
20023.710.746.9
20032.98.846.6
20043.26.745.2
20054.011.045.1
20064.88.445.6
200711.016.846.3
20086.09.846.5
20099.013.046.2
20104.910.538.9
20116.612.837.2
20123.27.936.8
201310.014.036.2
20142.55.934.2

Figure 4

Figure 4: Pop. % in Marginal Non-Southern Legislative Races
YearNon-Southern State Legislature 5% MarginalityNon-Southern State Legislature 10% Marginality
19688.015.5
196914.825.5
197011.020.8
197117.438.2
197210.219.6
19739.328.9
197411.020.0
197511.721.0
197611.220.9
19777.215.9
19787.915.4
197910.021.6
19808.215.7
19818.517.6
19828.717.6
198313.820.4
19846.813.4
198511.328.8
19866.411.4
19875.121.2
19885.211.3
198917.931.0
19906.915.5
199110.021.9
19927.914.6
199310.516.4
19948.115.8
19957.322.0
19967.214.3
19974.216.4
19984.511.5
19993.77.3
20005.812.0
20018.114.4
20026.312.3
20035.013.8
20045.911.4
20056.312.5
20067.513.8
20071.74.7
20086.212.7
20097.113.1
20107.615.0
20112.512.5
20127.415.5
20137.513.3
20146.013.3

Figure 5

Figure 5: Pop. % with Uncontested State Legislative Races
YearState Senate Percent UncontestedState House Percent Uncontested
197129.328.0
197221.121.7
197311.722.2
197424.127.6
197555.237.0
197625.729.4
197711.628.2
197825.431.0
197941.435.1
198023.931.6
198117.828.0
198227.628.9
198332.839.5
198430.533.1
198525.7
198629.233.2
198733.941.9
198831.934.1
19890.025.9
199025.533.2
199120.926.5
199227.428.4
199310.119.9
199426.833.1
199536.829.0
199627.330.1
199710.128.8
199832.437.4
199955.638.3
200032.236.0
200110.022.7
200236.335.0
200328.738.3
200435.737.0
200528.3
200629.036.2
200732.039.7
200834.637.0
20090.020.4
201023.833.0
201129.439.1
201236.136.4
20135.023.4
201432.840.4

Figure 6

Figure 6: Pop. % with Uncontested State Legislative Races by Region
YearState Legislature Percent UncontestedNon-Southern State Legislature Percent UncontestedSouthern State Legislature Percent Uncontested
197128.712.343.7
197221.412.050.3
197316.613.236.1
197425.816.257.6
197545.622.958.6
197627.517.560.5
197719.514.149.0
197828.218.459.2
197938.126.344.8
198028.021.251.7
198123.521.146.0
198228.218.756.3
198335.37.754.9
198431.820.664.5
198525.71.358.0
198631.223.554.6
198736.89.359.0
198833.024.359.4
198925.21.257.0
199029.522.852.1
199123.23.137.8
199227.920.048.7
199314.88.438.0
199429.921.451.8
199532.84.940.3
199628.721.049.9
199719.18.856.0
199834.927.455.2
199946.74.957.8
200034.327.455.0
200118.28.142.0
200235.728.553.0
200332.26.352.4
200436.427.359.1
200528.37.552.0
200632.624.752.7
200734.89.353.5
200835.827.655.9
200919.96.036.0
201028.721.249.2
201133.51.948.9
201236.228.952.1
201314.14.246.0
201436.728.356.4

Figure 7

Figure 7: Incumbency Win and Run Rates in State Legislative Races
YearState Senate Incumbent Re-election PercentState Senate Incumbent Run PercentState House Incumbent Re-election PercentState House Incumbent Run Percent
197189.158.089.261.7
197292.466.792.171.4
197366.660.481.270.1
197487.270.090.274.5
197591.072.091.776.2
197689.773.195.579.1
197784.466.096.576.1
197892.967.293.677.2
197992.574.592.080.4
198090.276.594.082.5
198191.268.894.875.4
198293.069.593.074.8
198392.679.794.682.1
198492.080.295.685.5
198587.592.4
198696.679.096.884.3
198793.285.395.479.0
198896.880.096.587.5
19890.094.788.9
199092.579.394.684.1
199181.572.786.577.5
199292.970.294.572.7
199391.387.394.485.7
199491.972.692.878.0
199583.085.294.785.6
199695.769.296.680.5
199794.084.899.585.9
199895.872.397.479.2
199995.781.196.889.3
200095.871.997.977.6
200191.285.095.077.1
200294.466.796.273.4
200397.580.096.182.3
200496.672.897.181.2
200596.187.5
200696.469.796.876.8
200791.370.897.676.9
200897.169.797.678.1
20090.094.983.7
201090.960.191.576.3
201195.880.795.779.6
201296.766.595.471.3
2013100.097.597.485.5
201497.269.496.078.1

Figure 8

Figure 8: Incumbency Win and Run Trends in State Legislative Races
YearState Legislature Incumbent Re-election PercentState Legislature Incumbent Run Percent
197189.259.7
197292.268.9
197373.964.8
197488.772.3
197591.474.2
197692.776.1
197790.670.7
197893.372.2
197992.377.6
198092.379.7
198193.372.5
198293.072.0
198393.480.5
198493.983.0
198587.592.4
198696.781.6
198794.083.0
198896.783.7
198994.786.4
199093.681.8
199183.774.7
199293.771.4
199392.886.5
199492.475.2
199589.085.4
199696.274.8
199796.785.3
199896.675.8
199996.385.4
200097.075.0
200193.679.8
200295.369.9
200396.980.9
200496.877.1
200596.187.5
200696.673.2
200793.773.0
200897.474.0
200994.981.5
201091.268.7
201195.880.2
201296.168.8
201398.891.6
201496.573.8

Figure 9

Figure 9: U.S. House Marginal Races
YearU.S. House 5% MarginalityU.S. House 10% Marginality
19467.920.8
194814.126.3
195010.520.7
19529.319.0
19548.421.4
19569.820.4
195812.823.9
19609.719.6
19628.317.1
196413.225.0
196610.216.4
19685.815.0
19706.312.1
19725.812.2
19749.420.7
19768.114.7
19786.915.2
19808.515.9
19827.916.4
19846.412.6
19865.810.4
19883.57.1
19906.511.5
19929.518.5
19949.919.6
19969.418.0
19983.79.7
20004.49.7
20024.98.4
20042.34.9
20068.114.0
20085.611.1
20108.318.7
20126.614.4
20145.110.2

Figure 10

Figure 10: U.S. Senate Marginal Races
YearU.S. Senate 5% MarginalityU.S. Senate Marginality
194017.128.6
194211.829.4
194428.640.0
194611.125.0
194815.218.2
19508.341.7
195228.657.1
195423.734.2
195611.442.9
195820.632.4
196017.629.4
196223.148.7
196422.942.9
19668.625.7
196817.641.2
197017.134.3
197215.248.5
197426.541.2
197612.130.3
197817.626.5
198039.454.5
198221.233.3
198418.818.8
198629.441.2
198821.233.3
19908.826.5
199217.638.2
199411.422.9
199612.145.5
199814.723.5
200023.529.4
200217.626.5
200420.623.5
200612.118.2
200811.425.7
201013.516.2
201212.133.3
201413.919.4

Figure 11

Figure 11: Pop. % in Marginal Presidential Elections
YearStates in Presidential Elections 5% MarginalityStates in Presidential Elections 10% MarginalityPercent of National Presidential Vote Obtained by the Democratic Candidate
193214.027.359.2
19360.42.062.5
194042.256.655.0
194435.960.053.8
194854.861.352.4
195210.038.544.6
19567.114.642.2
196051.880.950.1
19644.211.161.3
196843.867.649.6
19720.07.538.2
197658.678.051.1
198027.448.144.7
19844.622.340.8
198838.450.746.1
199229.552.553.5
199613.144.454.7
200025.840.950.3
200420.938.548.8
200817.330.153.7
201215.637.452.0

Figure 12

Figure 12: Pop. % with Marginal Gubernatorial Election Results
YearGubernatorial 5% MarginalityGubernatorial 10% Marginality
1935-193827.351.9
1939-194217.238.6
1943-194620.833.9
1947-195015.435.4
1951-195421.748.1
1955-195820.935.9
1959-196226.857.2
1963-196614.235.2
1967-197018.552.5
1971-197437.248.4
1975-197815.840.0
1979-198235.356.4
1983-198612.140.7
1987-199038.951.0
1991-199428.451.4
1995-199818.830.5
1999-200219.858.4
2003-20069.227.8
2007-201026.238.3
2011-201428.843.7

Figure 13

Figure 13: Non-Southern Pop. % with Marginal Gubernatorial Election Results
YearNon-Southern Gubernatorial 5% MarginalityNon-Southern Gubernatorial 10% Marginality
1935-193835.367.2
1939-194223.252.1
1943-194627.544.7
1947-195020.647.4
1951-195429.264.6
1955-195827.146.5
1959-196235.567.3
1963-196617.044.8
1967-197024.354.7
1971-197437.653.5
1975-197813.644.7
1979-198245.360.9
1983-198615.129.4
1987-199039.048.5
1991-199423.039.1
1995-199826.737.3
1999-200221.861.7
2003-200611.124.2
2007-201022.740.3
2011-201431.247.4

Appendix A1

State Senate Competitiveness
Year5% Marginality, Percentage of Elections10% Marginality, Percentage of Elections5% Marginality, Percentage of Populations10% Marginality, Percentage of Populations
19689.518.35.412.0
196931.631.631.631.6
197011.121.410.320.3
19717.918.59.321.4
197210.420.78.816.9
19735.026.76.129.2
197410.520.310.117.3
19756.012.06.914.3
197610.719.813.021.8
19775.110.26.212.3
19788.215.86.813.9
19798.613.810.516.9
198010.919.49.817.4
198111.519.710.618.4
19829.117.28.917.2
19837.315.78.116.2
19849.416.07.413.5
1985
19866.814.27.712.1
19878.815.28.717.2
19887.616.45.212.3
198950.050.050.050.0
19909.019.37.717.7
19919.417.012.523.8
19929.417.68.214.9
199312.517.512.717.7
19948.716.68.716.7
19959.120.59.624.0
19967.815.59.215.8
19972.517.52.517.7
19985.612.74.611.4
19995.310.65.210.3
20006.914.86.412.7
200110.015.010.015.0
20027.915.35.712.5
20032.99.92.49.5
20047.414.05.29.4
2005
20068.315.67.212.7
20078.213.58.313.2
20087.214.15.711.3
20090.00.00.00.0
20109.018.27.614.6
20116.412.96.814.5
20127.616.75.412.3
20137.512.57.512.5
20146.012.75.012.0

Appendix A2

State House Competitiveness
Year5% Marginality, Percentage of Elections10% Marginality, Percentage of Elections5% Marginality, Percentage of Populations10% Marginality, Percentage of Populations
19689.318.28.415.5
196911.423.99.723.4
197010.419.89.417.6
197111.320.914.226.6
197211.020.29.717.9
197310.721.113.525.9
197410.219.19.117.6
19756.713.49.017.3
19768.316.96.714.7
19777.518.28.620.9
19788.615.87.113.9
19797.715.68.317.9
19808.115.76.913.6
19817.518.97.118.4
19828.015.96.813.7
19834.910.85.411.9
19847.414.35.911.6
19856.117.27.319.8
19866.812.95.610.5
19876.114.56.715.9
19887.013.25.610.5
198911.120.012.222.0
19907.915.56.312.5
19917.116.58.418.8
19929.117.37.914.3
19936.113.36.113.4
19947.815.27.213.3
19955.214.35.815.9
19967.414.46.712.6
19977.211.17.311.6
19986.111.94.810.3
19994.98.15.08.1
20006.613.24.710.7
20015.013.35.213.4
20027.214.65.411.0
20034.410.65.412.0
20047.714.75.110.7
20055.011.75.211.8
20068.516.06.311.9
20077.111.87.412.2
20087.514.56.512.4
20098.313.38.213.4
20108.116.26.313.0
20114.410.34.110.5
20128.116.26.913.9
20138.914.48.714.5
20146.513.14.910.2

Appendix A3

State Legislature Competitiveness
Year5% Marginality, Percentage of Elections10% Marginality, Percentage of Elections5% Marginality, Percentage of Populations10% Marginality, Percentage of Populations
19689.318.26.913.8
196912.724.413.624.8
197010.520.19.918.9
197110.420.211.523.8
197210.920.39.217.4
19739.722.19.527.7
197410.319.49.617.4
19756.513.18.015.9
19768.817.59.818.3
19777.116.87.316.4
19788.515.87.013.9
19797.915.29.417.4
19808.716.58.315.4
19818.219.18.618.4
19828.216.17.915.5
19835.712.57.114.6
19847.814.66.712.5
19856.117.27.319.8
19866.813.26.711.3
19876.914.77.916.7
19887.113.85.411.4
198911.520.313.222.8
19908.116.27.015.0
19917.816.610.721.6
19929.217.48.014.6
19937.314.19.515.7
19948.015.58.015.0
19956.115.87.719.9
19967.414.68.014.2
19976.412.34.814.8
19986.012.04.710.9
19995.08.75.19.2
20006.713.55.511.6
20015.913.66.914.0
20027.414.85.511.8
20034.010.43.610.5
20047.714.65.110.1
20055.011.75.211.8
20068.515.96.712.3
20077.412.38.012.8
20087.414.46.111.8
20098.213.28.013.1
20108.216.56.913.8
20115.011.15.612.7
20128.016.36.113.1
20138.614.18.113.5
20146.413.14.911.1
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