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California's 25th Congressional District election, 2018

From Ballotpedia



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2016
California's 25th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 9, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Stephen Knight (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in California
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): EVEN
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
California's 25th Congressional District
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California elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Nonprofit executiveKatie Hill (D) defeated incumbent Rep.Steve Knight (R) in the general election forCalifornia's 25th Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in theU.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. TheDemocratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House.From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Knight was first elected in2014, defeatingRepublicanTony Strickland by a margin of 5 percentage points. In2016 he was re-elected, defeatingDemocratBryan Caforio (D) by a margin of 6 percentage points.Hillary Clinton won this district with 50.3 percent of the vote in the2016 presidential race. Two of theforecasting outlets covered by Ballotpedia rated the race a "Toss-up" in the month leading up to election day. TheLos Angeles Times called the race "one of the most fiercely competitive congressional races in the country."[1]


Grey.pngFor more information about the top-two primary,click here.

Contents

Timeline

  • October 30, 2018: TheNew York Times released a poll that had the race close, with Knight receiving 48 percent support and Hill receiving 44 percent. Its margin of error was +/- 4.8 percentage points.
  • October 9, 2018: TheHouse Majority PAC announced a $800,000adbuy opposing Knight.
  • October 4, 2018:The Los Angeles Times released apoll conducted by UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies showing Hill leading Knight 50 to 46 percent. The margin of error was 5 percent.
  • September 20, 2018: A NYT Upshot / Siena CollegePoll showed Knight leading Hill 47-45 percent. The margin of error was 5 percentage points.
  • September 8, 2018: Former PresidentBarack Obama (D) spoke on behalf of Hill at an event at the Anaheim Convention Center.[2]
  • September 7. 2018: TheCongressional Leadership Fund released anad critical of Hill and California's gas tax.
  • August 22, 2018: TheNational Republican Congressional Committee released anad critical of Hill and California's gas tax.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House California District 25

Katie Hill defeated incumbentStephen Knight in the general election for U.S. House California District 25 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Katie Hill
Katie Hill (D)
 
54.4
 
133,209
Image of Stephen Knight
Stephen Knight (R)
 
45.6
 
111,813

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 245,022
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 25

IncumbentStephen Knight andKatie Hill defeatedBryan Caforio,Jess Phoenix, andMary Pallant in the primary for U.S. House California District 25 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Stephen Knight
Stephen Knight (R)
 
51.8
 
61,411
Image of Katie Hill
Katie Hill (D)
 
20.7
 
24,507
Image of Bryan Caforio
Bryan Caforio (D)
 
18.4
 
21,821
Image of Jess Phoenix
Jess Phoenix (D)
 
6.4
 
7,549
Mary Pallant (D)
 
2.7
 
3,157

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 118,445
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


Candidate profiles

See also:Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages
Katie Hill, Nonprofit executive
Katie Hill.jpg

Campaign websiteFacebookTwitter

Party:Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Hill earned her master's degree in public administration and her bachelor's degree in English from California State University, Northridge.[3] Hill's professional experience includes working as the executive director of the nonprofit organization PATH (People Assisting the Homeless). She worked to pass ballot initiatives Measure H and Prop HHH aiming to decrease homelessness in the Los Angeles area.


Key messages
  • Hill highlighted her nonprofit experience, which she said was focused on California's Medicare expansion. She said she would use that experience to help design a more affordable and accessable health care system.[4]
  • Hill cited statements made by Knight including the quote, "I think Social Security was a bad idea," to highlight a policy difference on Social Security between Knight and herself.[5]
  • Hill advocated for restructuring the tax code and closing loopholes to "ensure that the wealthy pay at least the same percentage of their income in taxes as the rest of us do."[6]
Stephen Knight, U.S. Representative
Stephen Knight.jpg

Campaign websiteFacebookTwitter

Party:Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office:U.S. House California District 25 (Assumed office: 2015); California State Senate District 21 (2013-2015); California State Assembly District 36 (2009-2013)

Biography: Knight's professional experience included serving as an officer with the Los Angeles Police Department, a soldier in the United States Army, and a member of Community Resources Against Street Hoodlums.[7] Knight served as a city council member inPalmdale, California from 2005 to 2008. He served as a member of the state Assembly from 2008 to 2012 and a member of the state Senate from 2012 to 2014. Knight was first elected as the 25th Congressional District representative in 2015.

Key messages
  • Knight campaigned on his record in the House, touting 25 accomplishments of his tenure on his campaign website. These included several bills aimed at helping small businesses compete for federal contracts.[8]
  • Knight said that Social Security's trust funds would be exhausted by 2035 and the program would become insolvent. He advocated for reforms like changing the pay structure and closing what he called a loophole that "allows individuals to receive both unemployment insurance and disability payments."[9]
  • Knight advocated for simplification of the tax code and reduction in tax rates, steps he said would stimulate growth and combat unemployment.[9]


Polls

See also:Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
California's 25th Congressional District Election
PollKnight (R)Hill (D)Undecided/someone else/didn't answerMargin of ErrorSample Size
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 25-28, 2018
48%44%8%+/-4.8504
UC Berkley/Los Angeles Times
September 16-23, 2018
46%50%4%+/-5%680 likely voters
NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll
September 17-19, 2018
47%45%7%+/-5%500 likely voters
Global Strategy Group
June 11-21, 2018
45%40%15%+/-4.9%400 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org
Click [show] to see older poll results 
Top-two primary in California's 25th Congressional District
PollKnight (R)Caforio (D)Hill (D)Phoenix (D)OtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
February 11-15, 2018
43%19%10%7%5%7%+/-4.4%500 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org
Top-two primary in California's 25th Congressional District
PollCaforio (D)Knight (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
FM3 Research, Caforio vs. Knight
January 24-28, 2018
48%47%5%+/-3.8650 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org
Top-two primary in California's 25th Congressional District
PollHill (D)Knight (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
FM3 Research, Hill vs. Knight
January 24-28, 2018
53%40%7%+/-3.8650 likely voters
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to theFederal Election Commission.

NamePartyReceipts*Disbursements**Cash on handDate
Stephen KnightRepublican Party$2,628,084$2,631,813$33,464 As of December 31, 2018
Katie HillDemocratic Party$8,569,626$8,505,044$64,582 As of December 31, 2018

Source:Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

*According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
**According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to asoutside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees,super PACs, trade associations, and501(c)(4)nonprofit groups.[10][11][12]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, pleaseemail us.

  • On March 26, 2018, theAmerican Action Network announced a $1 million ad campaign targeting California's 25th District and 25 other congressional districts. The group's 25th District ad asked voters to thank incumbentSteve Knight (R) for supporting the tax bill passed by Congress in December 2017.[13]
    • TheLos Angeles Times reported on January 3, 2018, that the American Action Network had made a six-figure TV and digital ad buy in support ofSteve Knight and three other Republican members of the California congressional delegation. The group's ads thank the members for their support for thetax bill that was passed by Congress in December 2017.[14]
  • TheCourage Campaign Super PAC reported spending $1,607.90 to oppose Knight in 2017.[15]
  • TheHouse Majority PAC, aNancy Pelosi-connected group, announced plans to spend $43 million on television advertisements in 2018. Some of the spending would be in this race's media market, according to theWashington Post.[16] On October 9, House Majority PAC announced $800,000 in spending to run the ad"Retire" in the district.[17]
  • TheIndependence USA PAC spent $4.5 million supporting Hill as of October 26, 2018.[18]
  • Onward Together, a political action committee formed byHillary Clinton, donated $5,000 to Hill in June 2018.[19]
  • PAC for a Change, a political action committee led by former U.S. Sen.Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), reported spending $3,806.40 to oppose Knight through February 28, 2018.[20]


Race ratings

See also:Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets:The Cook Political Report,Inside Elections,Sabato's Crystal Ball, andDDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe andSolid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[21]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[22][23][24]

Race ratings: California's 25th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also:The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also:FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made California's 25th Congressional District the 235th most Republican nationally.[25]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[26]


Noteworthy endorsements

See also:Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, pleaseclick here.


Click the links below for to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites.

Click here to see a list of endorsements in the June 5, 2018 top-two primary 

Ballotpedia tracks endorsements by organizations and elected officials. To notify us of other endorsements, pleaseemail us.

Primary election endorsements
EndorsementDemocratic PartyCaforio[27]Democratic PartyHill[28]Republican PartyKnightDemocratic PartyPhoenix[29]
Federal officials
Jerry McNerney, U.S. representative
Nanette Barragan, U.S. representative
Judy Chu, U.S. representative
Lois Frankel, U.S. representative
Jimmy Gomez, U.S. representative
Jackie Speier, U.S. representative
Lois Capps, former U.S. representative
State figures
Sharon Davis, former California first lady
Gavin Newsom, lieutenant governor of California
Ben Allen, California state senator
Henry Stern, California state senator
Dante Acosta, California state assemblyman
Laura Friedman, California state assemblywoman
Jacqui Irwin, California state assemblywoman
Tom Lackey, California state assemblyman
Fran Pavley, former California state senator
Local figures
Sheila Kuehl, Los Angeles County supervisor
Don Knabe, former Los Angeles County supervisor
Susan Rose, former Santa Barbara County supervisor
Peter Foy, Ventura County supervisor
Kathy Long, former Ventura County supervisor
Cameron Smyth, mayor of Santa Clarita
Bob Huber, mayor of Simi Valley
Mike Judge, Simi Valley mayor pro tem
Mike Bonin, Los Angeles city councilman
Paul Koretz, Los Angeles city councilman
Joy Picus, former Los Angeles city councilwoman
Dee Dee Cavanaugh, Simi Valley city councilwoman
Keith Mashburn, Simi Valley city councilman
Cheryl Heitmann, Ventura city councilwoman
Lindsey Horvath, West Hollywood city councilwoman
Wendy Greuel, former Los Angeles city controller
Rick Tuttle, former Los Angeles city controller
Juan Carillo, Palmdale city councilman
Michael Dutton, Antelope Valley Union High School District board member
Jannie Dutton, Keppel Union School District board president
Manuel Magana, Keppel Union School District board member
Christy Smith, Newhall School District board president[30][31]
Joyce Ricks, Palmdale School District president
Ralph Velador, Palmdale School District board member
Christopher Trunkey, Saugus Union School District president
Gonzalo Freixes, former Newhall School District president
Robert "Bo" Bynum, former Palmdale School District board member
Arleigh Kidd, former Simi Valley Unified School District president
Kathy MacLaren, Palmdale Water Board director
Gloria Dizmang, former Palmdale Water Board director
Organizations
Our Revolution, Santa Clarita
Greater and Grander
Americans for Democratic Action of Southern California
Free Thought Equality
Gaaays in Spaaace
Blue Grizzlies
Party of Reason and Progress
Blue Wave Crowdsource
Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1277
American Nurses Association
American Postal Workers Union
Blue America
Communications Workers of America, Southern California Council
Democracy for America
EMILY's List
Equality California
The Feminist Majority
Heart of L.A. Democratic Club
International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local 416 and Local 433
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 40
International Union of Operating Engineers Local 12
International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 36
Justice Democrats
L.A. County Young Democrats
Laborers' International Union of North America Local 300
NARAL
National Association of Letter Carriers Local 2200, Local 4430, and Local 2902
National Nurses United
North Valley Democratic Club
Progressive Democrats of the Santa Monica Mountains
Santa Clarita Valley Young Democrats
Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers Local Union 105
Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
Southeast Antelope Valley Initiative
Southern California District Council of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union
Stonewall Democratic Club
The Suburban Women's Action Network
Teamsters Joint Council 42
United Aerospace Workers Local 887
United Association of Plumbers, Pipefitters and Welders Local 761
United Steelworkers Los Angeles and Orange County Legislative Education Committee
Utility Workers Union of America
Victory Fund
The Women's Political Committee

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, pleaseemail us.

Democratic Party Katie Hill

Support

"Climb" - Katie Hill campaign ad, released April 24, 2018
"Katie Hill for Congress" - Katie Hill campaign ad, released October 24, 2018

Oppose

"$3,000" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 19, 2018
"Immature" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 27, 2018
"Expensive" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 7, 2018
"Paying at the Pump" - NRCC ad, released August 22, 2018

Republican Party Steve Knight

Oppose

"Retire" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 9, 2018
"Rachael For Katie Hill" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 4, 2018
"Ady vs Steve Knight" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 4, 2018
"Fits" - DCCC ad, released September 17, 2018
"Gas Mask" - League of Conservation Voters ad, released September 17, 2018
"Steve Knight: Bought by the Gun Lobby" - Giffords PAC ad, released May 9, 2018

Campaign themes

Website

The campaign themes below were taken from the candidates' 2018 campaign websites.

Katie Hill

Universal Health Care

In a country with this much wealth, we should have a system that ensures every American can get the health care they need. I’ve worked on the Medicaid expansion, that brought coverage to 13.5 million Californians, and I will use that experience to get us to Medicare for All. I am ready to take immediate steps to provide health care relief for the people who need it by strengthening the ACA and laying the foundation for a Medicare For All system that works for all of us.

Women’s Reproductive Rights

Women need to have control of their own bodies, including if and when to start a family. It’s not the government’s place to regulate the most personal, difficult decisions a woman will ever have to make. I support expanding access to comprehensive sexual health education and under a Medicare for All system, all men and women would have access to family-planning services such as birth control, cancer screenings and STI testing/treatment. This is why I stand with Planned Parenthood, as its California health centers provide our low-income neighbors critical and basic reproductive health care.

Senior Care

We have a moral responsibility to take care of our seniors. That includes protecting Medicare and Social Security, ensuring families are able to support aging loved ones with the long-term care they need, and providing a safety net for the generations who came before us. We need to invest in research and finding a cure for devastating diseases like Alzheimer's and Dementia that affect so many of our seniors, and all of those who care for them.

Supporting our Troops Veterans Care

We have to ensure that our troops have the resources that they need, because too often during my time at PATH, I saw veterans living on the streets. As a member of a family of veterans, who benefitted from the G.I. Bill, I support increasing educational benefits and opportunities for veterans. I know that it is imperative that our troops receive the proper mental health and substance abuse disorder treatment when returning from service. We have no greater obligation as a country than to take care of the men and women who have risked everything to protect us. Our veterans deserve the best possible care at every stage of their lives.

Mental Health Treatment

One in seven Americans will experience a serious mental health condition at some point in their lifetime. The impact this has on our society cannot be understated, and we need to address it as such. We have to de-stigmatize the issue, and ensure that every single American is able to get the care they need. Mental health must be included in all discussions of health care access.

Addiction

Drug overdoses killed more Americans last year than the worst year ever for gun deaths (1993), HIV (1995), car crashes (1972), or the entire Vietnam war. Treatment options are dangerously unavailable or costly, and the epidemic has touched nearly every American family in some way at this point, including mine. We need to treat it as the public health crisis it is, and provide the resources accordingly.

Environment

Protecting the planet is not just an environmental issue, but a human health issue. Our families and communities need clean air, water and a non-toxic food supply so we can flourish for generations to come. In 2015, the Department of Defense informed Congress the implications of climate change included aggravating global issues such as poverty, social tensions and food shortages. These are all threats to vital human health and sustainability we must take seriously and should inspire us to do whatever it takes reverse the damage done to our environment.

Right here at home, the Aliso Canyon gas blowout is an example of how non-renewable energy sources and corrupt energy companies can have a detrimental effect on our environment. We must shut down this facility now and move to 100% clean energy, get off fossil fuels, and stop building new power plants.

Special Needs

Several members of my family on both sides have special needs, ranging in age from children to seniors. I know the demands that families face as caretakers, and that we as a community need to come together and provide support and resources at every stage of life. I know first hand how our system can do a better job of ensuring that people with special needs have high quality education, and every opportunity to achieve the highest possible level of self sufficiency in life. It’s vitally important that the federal government adequately funds community resource centers, programs, education, and the support necessary for these Americans and I'm ready to be an advocate for this in Congress.

Gun Safety

As a lifelong gun owner, I am ready to be a sensible voice in the debate around gun violence. I believe that respecting the Second Amendment and advocating for gun safety measures are not mutually exclusive, which is why I am proud to have the distinction as a Gun Sense Candidate from Moms Demand Action. Like we already have in California, I support a federal ban on assault weapons, high capacity magazines and bump stocks, as well as increasing waiting periods, raising the minimum age to purchase all weapons, and expanding our current background check system. These measures can have a significant impact on reducing gun violence, while also adequately retaining the right to bear arms. It’s time to move past inflammatory politics and take steps now to curb gun violence, because protecting our kids and our communities is something we can ALL agree on.

Law Enforcement and Public Safety

As the daughter of a police officer I understand the vital service that our law enforcement officials provide for us on a daily basis. We need to provide fully for our peace officers so that they can protect our communities while also addressing the underlying causes of crime such as poverty.

Income Inequality

Last year, the wealthiest 10% of families in the US held 76% of the total wealth in our country, while the bottom half of the population accounted for just 1%. We need to close that gap, and ensure that the wealthy pay the same percentage of their income in taxes as the rest of us do. If we did that, we would have all the resources we’d need to invest in rebuilding the middle class and ensuring a strong future for our country.

Local Jobs

At the federal level, we should create incentives for local governments to attract and retain industries and employers that make the most sense for that community, provided they demonstrate public-private partnerships to train and hire local community members in living-wage jobs. In our district, that includes film, green energy, technology, and more. Extra incentives should be provided to those communities that connect the jobs to re-entry or to other underprivileged populations.

Education

Education is the pathway to self-sufficiency in America. Everyone should have access to a good education – from preschool to college – no matter where they come from or what their family can afford. We must ensure the prosperity of our public school system, we must listen to administrators and teachers about the issues in their classrooms and consult with schools directly when drafting policies that affect them. I also support universal preschool, which is shown to decrease the K12 achievement gap across all American youth.

Public Education

The federal government has to fully fund the education mandates they set at the national level and we ultimately have to protect our public schools from privatization. Investing in these programs across the country provides critical funding aimed at supporting the nation’s neediest students; our poor, rural, and minority students and students with special needs. These funds help supplement what states are able to invest to give these children a level playing field and equitable access to an education that will help foster their growth as citizens of the future.

Affordable Housing and Homelessness

The growing homelessness crisis is a direct result of the shortage of affordable housing and skyrocketing rents in our communities. In my experience at PATH, I also know that homelessness disproportionately affects people of color, survivors of domestic violence, single-parent households and veterans -- all populations we must do better in serving. It is estimated that California has 1 million units of housing less than it needs, and we must address our nation's housing crisis at the federal level.

Immigration

Rebuilding the middle class includes achieving real immigration reform that protects our country while valuing the people who have lived and worked alongside us for years. Our friends and neighbors – no matter where they were born or how they got here – should be granted the opportunity to work for a better future for themselves and their families. We have to provide a clear path to citizenship for our dreamers and protect measures to keep families together. We can do this while also strengthening our borders against national security threats as well as the trafficking of sex workers, drugs and weapons. I know if we can get beyond partisan politics on this issue, we can work together to make real progress on immigration.

Criminal Justice Reform

Too many people are stuck, unable to move into the middle class, because of a failed criminal justice system that disproportionately impacts people of color, poor people, those who have suffered from addiction or mental health disorders, and those who have simply made mistakes. We need a system that focuses on rehabilitation and provides people who have served their time with the opportunity to become self-sufficient, contributing members of society again.

Labor and Unions

After World War II, America enjoyed one of the most prosperous and expansive middle classes the world has ever seen — and a large part of that was due to the fact that union participation was higher than ever. I believe protecting our ability to organize, unionize and collectively bargain is vital to maintaining a sustainable economy. We need to ensure workers are treated fairly and with the dignity they deserve in their efforts to achieve American Dream.

Childcare

A lack of access to childcare shouldn’t be the barrier to people being able to get and keep a good job. We need to ensure that parents can provide for their families and thrive in the middle class. Universal preschool would be a strong first step, but it would not be the last.

Small Businesses

Small businesses employ most Americans -- but they are largely ignored in policy decisions and corporations gain the most in terms of tax cuts and regulatory relief. Expansion in health care access has contributed to more people starting or expanding their own small businesses and providing economic development right in their neighborhoods. Medicare for All, reinstating small-business deductions cut by the GOP and stronger education systems will help our small businesses thrive.

Campaign Finance Reform

If we want a government that represents the will of the people and not special interests, we have to reform the way in which we finance our campaigns. This includes tax rebates for small dollar donors and public financing pathways that make it possible for service minded individuals to run competitive campaigns against political insiders.

Lobbying

We must put an end to the revolving door between the capitol and lobbying firms by banning former members of Congress and their high-paid staff from becoming lobbyists for five years.

Corporate Responsibility

America is a great place to enjoy economic freedoms not afforded in other countries. With that freedom comes a responsibility to give back to the people and the country that make so much prosperity possible. That is why I believe in creating policies that incentivize businesses to act in a socially responsible manner, to reinvest profits here at home and to share prosperity with their highly productive workforces. Measures like these can ensure record breaking corporate profits finally do find their way back into the pockets of hard working Americans.

Getting Big Money Out Of Politics

We have to reduce the undue influence of big money on our politics by abolishing Super PACs - entities that sponsor political activities without donor limits and donor disclosures.

Women in Government

Women make up more than half of our population, yet only 20% of Congress is comprised of women. If we want a government more representative of the public’s values and perspectives, we need more women weighing in on all policy decisions. It’s inexcusable that in 2018 we are so far from gender parity and the only way to ensure women have a voice on the floor is to elect them and give them a seat at the table. Women’s issues extend far beyond reproductive rights. We need to be working towards equal pay for women, ensuring access to affordable childcare and make sure women aren’t being hit with unfair taxes on feminine products. It’s time to level the playing field and claim our voice in government and I’m ready to lead that charge in Congress.

Racial Justice

Through my work at PATH I became intimately familiar with the ways in which our broken system disproportionately affects people of color in a negative way. For example, in LA County, nearly 50% of the homeless population we served was African American, despite the fact they only make up less than 10% of the total population. If we are going to live up to the ideals of American freedom and give every single person in this country a fighting chance to flourish, we have to be aware of the ways in which racial injustices are perpetrated through the criminal justice system, education, housing and in the workplace. I’ve spent my career being a voice for the most vulnerable populations in our communities and I’m ready to continue to be a voice in Congress, but I can’t do it alone. Let’s work together to build a more just and equitable society.

LGBTQ

I’ve identified as bisexual since I was a teenager and if we want to achieve equality for all in our policies, we need more voices from the LGBTQ community in Congress. I am proud to be endorsed by Equality California, Equality PAC, the LGBTQ Victory Fund and the Stonewall Democratic Club, and if elected, I will be the only openly bisexual woman in the House of Representatives. The federal government has no business in restricting basic human rights based on sexual orientation and I am ready to protect equality at every turn in Congress.

Millennials in Government

As millennials, we’re stuck with having to live with the long term consequences of decisions career politicians won’t be around to experience. Millennials now make up the largest voting bloc in the country and it’s our time to step up. Our generation has the opportunity to be the change we want to see in the world if we turn out to vote for issues like income inequality, affordable housing, education, health care for all and the environment. These are the top challenges our generation is having to face head on and I believe we’re the ones to make real change happen. This country needs millenials to turn out in a big way this election and I’m ready to be your voice, but I can’t do it alone, we have to do this together.[32]

Steve Knight

Economy

Middle class families still face huge financial challenges and declining wages after years of slow job growth. Government policies that increase the cost of doing business and get in the way of job creation have taken their toll on the people least able to afford it. Only by unleashing the private sector through smart tax incentives and rolling back expensive red-tape can we begin to restore America’s economic strength. Southern California has tremendous potential for new middle-class jobs particularly through the aerospace sector. While in the State Senate, I successfully championed a tax credit that will allow California to build the next generation Air Force Stealth Bomber and will bring thousands of new middle class jobs. We need to replicate this model for all industries because it’s clear that we are more competitive when taxes are reasonable. Our nation has produced one of the most robust and innovative economies in world history. However, until we reverse the policies that are holding it back through over-regulation and taxation, Americans will continue to see median incomes decrease and unemployment numbers increase.

Education

Decisions about the best way to educate students should be made at the local level where parents have a voice for their children, which is why I have consistently fought for local control throughout my career. Every community has unique needs, which make one-size-fits-all policies ineffective. Instead, we need to empower local schools and hold them accountable for their results. We must also provide stable funding so class sizes remain small and educational support services remain intact. Public schools must also reflect the needs of our modern economy by offering more opportunities for career technical education or trades to serve students looking to join the workforce immediately. Finally, we must look at strategies for fixing higher education so it can remain an option for middle and working class families who have been squeezed by rising tuition costs.

Immigration

Americans are rightly frustrated that our nation’s borders are still not secured after years of talk from Washington politicians and unelected bureaucrats. Reforming immigration laws is not possible until we are confident that all the points of entry into our country are no longer vulnerable to individuals entering illegally. The US has already seen previous attempts to deal with illegal immigration fail because the border has never truly been secured. While we should recognize that we are a nation of immigrants and modernize these laws to better meet the needs of our economy, we cannot continue to allow unchecked, illegal immigration to continue. I will fight to secure America’s borders first, and only after this is accomplished can we begin a broader overhaul of our immigration laws.

Debt and Government Spending

During the past ten years, the national debt has more than doubled and now stands at a staggering $19 trillion—more than $61,000 for every American. The unsustainable debt currently being passed on to our children is morally wrong and is a blatant act of generational theft. Making sure we right this wrong and stop spending ourselves down the road of bankruptcy must be a top priority in Washington. There is no excuse; we need a long-term plan to pay down our debt. It is time to balance the federal budget by providing real leadership and bringing common-sense back to government spending habits. This can be accomplished by prioritizing our programs that provide essential core services, and either eliminating or streamlining those that do not. While it may not be easy, we can longer afford to keep running up the bill on our nation’s youth.

Taxes

The cause of our national debt is not a lack of tax revenue—instead it was created by a spending addiction in Washington. As unemployment remains stubbornly high in an economic recovery that is still fragile, now is not the time to increase taxes on Americans. Instead, we must pursue comprehensive tax reform by lowering tax rates and in turn eliminating deductions and credits. With the tax code now stretching over 70,000 pages long, the need to simplify our system so that it benefits a shrinking middle class has never been greater. Upward mobility should not be something that is unique to those who can afford the most expensive accountants. By having a fairer, simpler tax code with lower rates, we can start to once again increase the size of our middle class – enhancing economic growth and providing higher tax revenues over time.

National Security

The world is safest when America is a leader in international affairs. Unfortunately we have witnessed what happens when we abandon this leadership role as violence, instability and chaos have increased globally under the current administration—look no further than the rise of ISIS as a global terror organization. In order to restore our position as a global leader, we need to ensure we have a strong military, effective intelligence services and the courage to confront threats. While serving in the army, I saw first-hand how important our presence in the world was for maintaining peace and protecting national interests. In the face of growing, international threats, making smart investments into our national security apparatus is more critical than ever. Failing to do so only emboldens aggressive nations and the spread of terrorism, which will cost exponentially more if conflict arises. Strong national defense must continue to be a focus in Washington because we must give our men and women in uniform the resources they need to protect us.

2nd Amendment Rights

Our nation’s founders enshrined the right to bear firearms in the Constitution, which means the government has no right to enact arbitrary restrictions. Undermining the 2nd Amendment by crafting gun control laws aimed to reduce violence rarely results in safer communities. Instead, it is responsible gun owners who pay the price as criminals rarely comply with the laws enacted to keep firearms out of their hands. There is no law Congress can pass to stop gun violence, however we must examine better policing strategies and mental health services in order to provide a more direct path to solving the problem of gun violence.

Social Security

We must act to ensure that Social Security is preserved and protected for current and future retirees; there is no doubt about this. That means that everyone who is currently receiving Social Security payments must continue doing so, and we should also take steps to ensure that the program is available for future generations.

Unfortunately decades of inaction by both political parties has put our Social Security system directly in harm’s way. In 1945, there were approximately 42 workers paying into the system for every retiree receiving Social Security benefits. Currently, there are only about 3 workers for every retiree, and soon there will be only 2 workers for every beneficiary. The program is paying out far more than it is bringing in and its trust funds will be exhausted by 2035. This means that in two decades, Social Security will become insolvent because it will not be able to pay out one hundred percent of promised benefits to retirees. This is unacceptable.

Many believe that even the slightest mention of Social Security reform is politically unthinkable, and feel the best course of action is to ignore this problem or let future generations sort it out. This line of thinking is irresponsible and will endanger our children’s future. Instead, what we ought to do is set politics aside and work on a bipartisan solution that will preserve Social Security for current and future generations.

This will not be a simple process, and we will need to pursue several approaches to address this multi-faceted problem. For example, the House is currently working to eliminate costly Social Security fraud and abuse by closing a loophole in the disability insurance program that allows individuals to receive both unemployment insurance and disability payments.

Additionally, by addressing the current pay structure we can ensure public funding is appropriately dispersed among those living on a fixed income. Just because someone spent their career working 9-5, and earning 9.50 an hour, doesn’t mean they should be subjected to a poverty-stricken retirement at less than $950.00 per month.

Protecting and preserving Social Security for future generations is extremely important, and will require bipartisan cooperation. I look forward to continuing to work with my colleagues in the House on ensuring our most reliable safety net is around for the retirees of today and tomorrow.[33]

Interview with The Signal

Hill and Knight spoke toThe Signal about their platforms, and the conversations were recorded and published by the outlet. You can view the videos below.[34]

Katie Hill
Decision 2018: Katie Hill, 25th Congressional District, published May 21, 2018
Steve Knight
Decision 2018: Steve Knight, 25th Congressional District, published May 21, 2018

Social media

Twitter accounts

Tweets by Katie HillTweets by Steve Knight

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic PartyKatie HillFacebook

Republican PartySteve KnightFacebook


Republican district won by Hillary Clinton

See also:U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 andSplit-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts thatHillary Clinton (D) won in the2016 presidential election.[35] Nearly all were expected to be among the House'smost competitive elections in 2018.

Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.


2018 election results in Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
DistrictIncumbent2018 winner2018 margin2016 presidential margin2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 2ndRepublican PartyMartha McSallyDemocratic PartyAnn KirkpatrickD+9.5Clinton+4.9Romney+1.5
California's 10thRepublican PartyJeff DenhamDemocratic PartyJosh HarderD+2.6Clinton+3.0Obama+3.6
California's 21stRepublican PartyDavid ValadaoDemocratic PartyTJ CoxD+0.8Clinton+15.5Obama+11.1
California's 25thRepublican PartySteve KnightDemocratic PartyKatie HillD+6.4Clinton+6.7Romney+1.9
California's 39thRepublican PartyEd RoyceDemocratic PartyGil CisnerosD+1.4Clinton+8.6Romney+3.7
California's 45thRepublican PartyMimi WaltersDemocratic PartyKatie PorterD+1.6Clinton+5.4Romney+11.8
California's 48thRepublican PartyDana RohrabacherDemocratic PartyHarley RoudaD+5.8Clinton+1.7Romney+11.7
California's 49thRepublican PartyDarrell IssaDemocratic PartyMike LevinD+7.4Clinton+7.5Romney+6.7
Colorado's 6thRepublican PartyMike CoffmanDemocratic PartyJason CrowD+11.2Clinton+8.9Obama+5.1
Florida's 26thRepublican PartyCarlos CurbeloDemocratic PartyDebbie Mucarsel-PowellD+1.8Clinton+16.1Obama+11.5
Florida's 27thRepublican PartyIleana Ros-LehtinenDemocratic PartyDonna ShalalaD+6.0Clinton+19.7Obama+6.7
Illinois' 6thRepublican PartyPeter RoskamDemocratic PartySean CastenD+5.6Clinton+7.0Romney+8.2
Kansas' 3rdRepublican PartyKevin YoderDemocratic PartySharice DavidsD+9.1Clinton+1.2Romney+9.5
Minnesota's 3rdRepublican PartyErik PaulsenDemocratic PartyDean PhillipsD+11.4Clinton+9.4Obama+0.8
New Jersey's 7thRepublican PartyLeonard LanceDemocratic PartyTom MalinowskiD+4.7Clinton+1.1Romney+6.2
New York's 24thRepublican PartyJohn KatkoRepublican PartyJohn KatkoR+6.3Clinton+3.6Obama+15.9
Pennsylvania's 1stRepublican PartyBrian Fitzpatrick[36]Republican PartyBrian FitzpatrickR+2.6Clinton+2.0Obama+2.6
Pennsylvania's 5thRepublican PartyPat Meehan[37]Democratic PartyMary Gay ScanlonD+30.2Clinton+28.2Obama+27.7
Pennsylvania's 6thRepublican PartyRyan Costello[38]Democratic PartyChrissy HoulahanD+17.6Clinton+9.3Obama+3.2
Pennsylvania's 7thRepublican PartyCharlie Dent[39]Democratic PartySusan WildD+11.3Clinton+1.1Obama+7.0
Texas' 7thRepublican PartyJohn CulbersonDemocratic PartyLizzie Pannill FletcherD+5.0Clinton+1.4Romney+21.3
Texas' 23rdRepublican PartyWill HurdRepublican PartyWill HurdR+0.5Clinton+3.4Romney+2.6
Texas' 32ndRepublican PartyPete SessionsDemocratic PartyColin AllredD+6.3Clinton+1.9Romney+15.5
Virginia's 10thRepublican PartyBarbara ComstockDemocratic PartyJennifer WextonD+12.4Clinton+10.0Romney+1.6
Washington's 8thRepublican PartyDavid ReichertDemocratic PartyKim SchrierD+6.2Clinton+3.0Obama+1.6


Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections..

Race background

California's 25th District was listed as one of theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.[40]

IncumbentSteve Knight was included as one of the initial members of theNational Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program in 2018.[41]


District history

2016

See also:California's 25th Congressional District election, 2016

California's 25th Congressional District was abattleground district in 2016. IncumbentStephen Knight (R) won re-election to his second term in 2016. He defeatedBryan Caforio (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Knight and Caforio defeatedJeffrey Moffatt (R) andLou Vince (D) in thetop-two primary on June 7, 2016.[42][43][44][45][46][47]

U.S. House, California District 25 General Election, 2016
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngStephen KnightIncumbent53.1%138,755
    Democratic Bryan Caforio46.9%122,406
Total Votes261,161
Source:California Secretary of State


U.S. House, California District 25 Primary, 2016
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngStephen KnightIncumbent48.3%63,769
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngBryan Caforio29.1%38,382
    Democratic Lou Vince15.4%20,327
    Republican Jeffrey Moffatt7.3%9,620
Total Votes132,098
Source:California Secretary of State

2014

See also:California's 25th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 25th Congressional District of California held an election for theU.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. IncumbentBuck McKeon did not seek re-election in 2014.[48]Stephen Knight (R) defeatedTony Strickland (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, California District 25 General Election, 2014
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngSteve Knight53.3%60,847
    Republican Tony Strickland46.7%53,225
Total Votes114,072
Source:California Secretary of State

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in California heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held seven of 10state executive positions and the remaining three positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of California was DemocratJerry Brown.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of theCalifornia State Legislature. They had a 55-25 majority in the state Assembly and a 27-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • California was astate government trifecta, meaning that Democrats held the governorship and majorities in the state house and state senate.

2018 elections

See also:California elections, 2018

California held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for California
 CaliforniaU.S.
Total population:38,993,940316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):155,7793,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:61.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.9%12.6%
Asian:13.7%5.1%
Native American:0.7%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.4%0.2%
Two or more:4.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:31.4%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,818$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source:U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Clickhere for more information on the 2020 census andhere for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the censushere.

As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).[49][50]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from theCalifornia Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016
YearFirst-place candidateFirst-place candidate votes (%)Second-place candidateSecond-place candidate votes (%)Margin of victory (%)
2016Democratic PartyHillary Clinton61.7%Republican PartyDonald Trump31.6%30.1%
2012Democratic PartyBarack Obama60.2%Republican PartyMitt Romney37.1%23.1%
2008Democratic PartyBarack Obama61.1%Republican PartyJohn McCain37%24.1%
2004Democratic PartyJohn Kerry54.4%Republican PartyGeorge W. Bush44.4%10%
2000Democratic PartyAl Gore53.5%Republican PartyGeorge W. Bush41.7%11.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results ofU.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016
YearFirst-place candidateFirst-place candidate votes (%)Second-place candidateSecond-place candidate votes (%)Margin of victory (%)
2016Democratic PartyKamala Harris61.6%Democratic PartyLoretta Sanchez38.4%23.2%
2012Democratic PartyDianne Feinstein62.5%Republican PartyElizabeth Emken37.5%25%
2010Democratic PartyBarbara Boxer52.2%Republican PartyCarly Fiorina42.2%10%
2006Democratic PartyDianne Feinstein59.5%Republican Party Richard Mountjoy35.1%24.4%
2004Democratic PartyBarbara Boxer57.8%Republican PartyBill Jones37.8%20%
2000Democratic PartyDianne Feinstein55.9%Republican PartyTom Campbell36.6%19.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.

Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016
YearFirst-place candidateFirst-place candidate votes (%)Second-place candidateSecond-place candidate votes (%)Margin of victory (%)
2014Democratic PartyJerry Brown60%Republican PartyNeel Kashkari40%20%
2010Democratic PartyJerry Brown53.8%Republican PartyMeg Whitman40.9%12.9%
2006Republican PartyArnold Schwarzenegger55.9%Democratic Party Phil Angelides39.0%16.9%
2002Democratic PartyGray Davis47.3%Republican Party Bill Simon42.4%4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in theU.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016
YearDemocratsDemocrats (%)RepublicansRepublicans (%)Balance of power
2016Democratic Party3973.5%Republican Party1426.4%D+25
2014Democratic Party3973.5%Republican Party1426.4%D+25
2012Democratic Party3871.7%Republican Party1528.3%D+23
2010Democratic Party3464.1%Republican Party1935.8%D+15
2008Democratic Party3464.1%Republican Party1935.8%D+15
2006Democratic Party3464.1%Republican Party1935.8%D+15
2004Democratic Party3362.3%Republican Party2037.7%D+13
2002Democratic Party3362.3%Republican Party2037.7%D+13
2000Democratic Party3261.5%Republican Party2038.5%D+12

Trifectas, 1992-2017

Astate government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

California Party Control: 1992-2025
Twenty years with Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year92939495969798990001020304050607080910111213141516171819202122232425
GovernorRRRRRRRDDDDDRRRRRRRDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
SenateDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
AssemblyDDDSRDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD


Pivot Counties

See also:Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted forBarack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and forDonald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election,Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote.Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click[show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled byDaily Kos.[51][52]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points.
2016 Presidential Results by State Assembly District
DistrictObamaRomney2012 MarginClintonTrump2016 MarginParty Control
139.63%57.31%R+17.736.09%56.75%R+20.7R
264.68%30.51%D+34.262.20%28.98%D+33.2D
342.41%54.46%R+12.139.47%53.31%R+13.8R
463.16%33.86%D+29.363.03%29.95%D+33.1D
541.27%55.92%R+14.738.51%54.85%R+16.3R
638.59%59.09%R+20.541.17%52.02%R+10.9R
767.59%29.61%D+3867.63%25.69%D+41.9D
851.72%45.62%D+6.151.77%41.03%D+10.7D
960.56%37.52%D+2361.47%32.89%D+28.6D
1073.76%23.28%D+50.575.65%17.96%D+57.7D
1160.96%36.87%D+24.158.86%35.17%D+23.7D
1245.19%52.50%R+7.343.11%51.05%R+7.9R
1364.23%33.88%D+30.462.97%31.79%D+31.2D
1468.80%28.72%D+40.169.55%24.47%D+45.1D
1586.82%9.56%D+77.387.39%7.04%D+80.4D
1657.74%40.10%D+17.664.47%29.23%D+35.2R
1787.07%9.36%D+77.788.12%6.95%D+81.2D
1886.89%10.23%D+76.785.89%8.44%D+77.5D
1978.94%18.38%D+60.681.63%13.34%D+68.3D
2075.74%22.15%D+53.675.52%19.12%D+56.4D
2155.61%42.03%D+13.654.63%39.46%D+15.2D
2271.43%26.31%D+45.175.16%19.75%D+55.4D
2343.46%54.71%R+11.243.95%50.78%R+6.8R
2472.16%24.96%D+47.278.19%15.93%D+62.3D
2572.40%25.26%D+47.173.61%20.90%D+52.7D
2641.15%56.68%R+15.541.54%52.93%R+11.4R
2776.36%21.54%D+54.877.76%17.29%D+60.5D
2866.64%30.77%D+35.970.63%23.08%D+47.6D
2969.95%26.66%D+43.370.00%22.96%D+47D
3066.99%30.86%D+36.166.70%27.32%D+39.4D
3161.98%36.21%D+25.862.13%32.93%D+29.2D
3256.20%41.81%D+14.456.50%37.98%D+18.5D
3341.80%55.51%R+13.740.02%54.61%R+14.6R
3433.96%63.85%R+29.934.07%60.21%R+26.1R
3547.82%49.42%R+1.649.57%43.43%D+6.1R
3648.79%48.48%D+0.349.94%43.86%D+6.1R
3760.97%36.28%D+24.764.27%29.21%D+35.1D
3846.73%50.84%R+4.149.64%44.39%D+5.2R
3973.75%23.67%D+50.174.64%19.80%D+54.8D
4053.14%44.72%D+8.454.08%40.01%D+14.1R
4159.74%37.72%D+2262.82%31.27%D+31.5D
4244.98%52.93%R+7.945.61%49.70%R+4.1R
4367.35%29.62%D+37.768.94%25.45%D+43.5D
4452.37%45.51%D+6.957.12%36.99%D+20.1D
4563.46%34.12%D+29.367.36%27.39%D+40D
4673.73%23.65%D+50.176.20%18.48%D+57.7D
4771.49%26.54%D+44.970.10%24.80%D+45.3D
4864.08%33.44%D+30.665.60%28.50%D+37.1D
4964.69%33.26%D+31.467.57%27.17%D+40.4D
5070.79%26.51%D+44.376.72%18.33%D+58.4D
5183.48%13.50%D+7084.05%10.19%D+73.9D
5265.01%32.92%D+32.165.78%28.71%D+37.1D
5384.64%12.59%D+7284.83%9.63%D+75.2D
5483.62%13.88%D+69.785.15%10.12%D+75D
5545.77%52.23%R+6.549.92%44.61%D+5.3R
5662.14%36.26%D+25.964.21%31.24%D+33D
5763.71%34.01%D+29.765.92%28.39%D+37.5D
5870.24%27.80%D+42.472.54%22.26%D+50.3D
5993.24%5.19%D+8890.70%5.09%D+85.6D
6051.32%46.31%D+552.48%41.97%D+10.5D
6163.43%34.55%D+28.962.47%31.62%D+30.9D
6280.81%17.00%D+63.882.05%13.06%D+69D
6376.06%21.73%D+54.377.35%17.38%D+60D
6488.74%9.98%D+78.886.21%9.61%D+76.6D
6551.90%45.68%D+6.256.73%37.28%D+19.4D
6654.18%43.24%D+10.959.97%33.60%D+26.4D
6739.61%58.33%R+18.738.89%55.94%R+17.1R
6842.55%55.12%R+12.649.42%44.58%D+4.8R
6967.37%30.30%D+37.171.94%22.33%D+49.6D
7067.38%29.93%D+37.568.13%25.09%D+43D
7138.47%59.51%R+2138.19%56.26%R+18.1R
7246.71%51.06%R+4.451.40%43.13%D+8.3R
7338.68%59.36%R+20.743.89%50.38%R+6.5R
7445.14%52.42%R+7.350.71%43.29%D+7.4R
7539.42%58.50%R+19.143.22%50.68%R+7.5R
7648.76%49.04%R+0.353.11%40.38%D+12.7R
7748.25%49.83%R+1.655.16%38.94%D+16.2R
7863.15%34.08%D+29.167.48%25.85%D+41.6D
7961.21%36.91%D+24.364.24%30.04%D+34.2D
8069.47%28.67%D+40.873.15%21.34%D+51.8D
Total60.35%37.19%D+23.262.25%31.89%D+30.4-
Source:Daily Kos


See also

Footnotes

  1. Los Angeles Times, "Never mind the candidates. In a key midterm contest, it's all about Trump," July 15, 2018
  2. Real Clear Politics, "Obama, on Campaign Swing, Urges 'Sanity in Our Politics'," September 10, 2018
  3. Katie Hill 2018 campaign website, "About Me," accessed March 30, 2018
  4. Katie Hill for Congress, "Issues," accessed September 17, 2018
  5. Katie Hill for Congress, "Media," accessed September 17, 2018
  6. Cite error: Invalid<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs namedkatiessues
  7. Project Vote Smart, "Biography," accessed March 13, 2014
  8. Steve Knight, "25 for the 25th," accessed September 17, 2018
  9. 9.09.1Steve Knight for Congress, "Policy," accessed September 17, 2018
  10. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  11. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  12. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  13. American Action Network, "American Action Network continues promoting tax reform with $1 million campaign," March 26, 2018
  14. Los Angeles Times, "Ads thank four California Republicans for their votes to pass tax plan," January 3, 2018
  15. Federal Election Commission, "Courage Campaign Super PAC," accessed March 22, 2018
  16. Washington Post, "Democratic super PAC makes plans to spend $43 million on House races," March 8, 2018
  17. House Majority PAC, "HMP Launches $20 Million Media Blitz in 13 Districts," October 9, 2018
  18. Federal Election Commission, "Independent Expenditures," accessed October 29, 2018
  19. CNN, "Hillary Clinton steps up her involvement in the midterms," July 30, 2018
  20. Federal Election Commission, "PAC for a Change," accessed March 22, 2018
  21. Inside Electionsalso usesTiltratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  22. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  23. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  24. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  25. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  26. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  27. Cite error: Invalid<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs namedcaforioendorsements
  28. Cite error: Invalid<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs namedhillendorsements
  29. Elisabeth Moore, "Email exchange with Carlos Phoenix," May 22, 2018
  30. Smith initially endorsed Caforio but changed her endorsement to Hill in February 2018.
  31. The Signal, "Dems choice for 38th Assembly District changes support for 25th Congressional District," February 27, 2018
  32. Katie Hill 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed May 14, 2018
  33. Steve Knight 2018 campaign website, "Policy," accessed May 14, 2018
  34. The Signal, "VIDEO: 25th Congressional District candidates speak to The Signal," May 21, 2018
  35. This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  36. The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick.Click here to read more.
  37. The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan.Click here to read more.
  38. The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello.Click here to read more.
  39. The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent.Click here to read more.
  40. DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  41. The Washington Post, "Republicans believe these 10 House incumbents will face the toughest campaigns of 2018," February 15, 2017
  42. Los Angeles Times, "Democrat Lou Vince says he will challenge Rep. Stephen Knight," April 30, 2015
  43. Daily KOS, "Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Steve Knight might be the one who gets 'dropped on his ass'," April 23, 2015
  44. Evan Thomas' campaign website, "2016 campaign announcement," June 25, 2015
  45. Los Angeles Times, "Democratic lawyer announcing challenge to GOP Rep. Steve Knight," December 10, 2015
  46. California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
  47. The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
  48. USA Today, "House Armed Services Chairman Buck McKeon to retire," January 16, 2014
  49. California Demographics, "California Cities by Population," accessed April 2, 2018
  50. U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts California," accessed April 2, 2018
  51. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  52. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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