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Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2022

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2022 Elections
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September 27, 2022

We've compiled a list of 15 elections we watched on November 8, 2022, including races for theU.S. Senate,U.S. House,governors,other state executives,state supreme court judgeships,state legislatures, andmayor.

These elections were selected by members of Ballotpedia's editorial department based on past election results, unique election-specific circumstances, and race ratings published by elections forecasters. The final selections were made with the goal of including a mix of federal, state, and local races in mind.

The top 15 elections are grouped by race type and ordered alphabetically. Know of an election you think should be included? Email us ateditor@ballotpedia.org.

See more of our 2022 election analysis by visiting ourElection Analysis Hub.

Top 15 elections to watch

U.S. Senate

See also:United States Senate elections, 2022
U.S. Senate

Thirty-four of the 100 seats in theU.S. Senate were up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 began their six-year terms on January 3, 2023.Two special elections also took place on November 8, 2022. Onespecial election was held to fill the final four years of Sen.Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) six-year term that began in 2021. Inhofe announced his resignation effective January 3, 2023.[1] The otherspecial election was held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term thatKamala Harris (D-Calif.) was elected to in2016. That U.S. Senate seat was also up for regular election in 2022, for a total of 35 individual seats up. Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 21[2] seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2022.

Arizona

IncumbentMark Kelly (D),Blake Masters (R), andMarc Victor (L) ran in the general election for one of Arizona'sU.S. Senate seats. As of August 2022, three independent election forecasters rated the raceToss-up. Kelly took office in December 2020 after defeating incumbent Sen.Martha McSally (R), 51.2% to 48.8%, in aspecial election in November 2020.[3] In 2018,Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated McSally, 50.0% to 47.6%, for the state's other U.S. Senate seat. The two most recent presidential elections in Arizona were similarly close. PresidentJoe Biden (D) carried the state over PresidentDonald Trump (R), 49.4% to 49.1%, in the2020 presidential election. Trump won the state in the2016 presidential election, 48.7% to 45.1%. Before joining Congress, Kelly served as a U.S. Navy pilot and a NASA astronaut. Masters is a venture capitalist who served as COO of Thiel Capital from 2018 to 2022.

Georgia

IncumbentRaphael Warnock (D),Herschel Walker (R), andChase Oliver (L) ran to representGeorgia in theU.S. Senate. Warnock defeatedKelly Loeffler (R) in a runoff election on January 5, 2021, 51% to 49%. Gov.Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler to this seat in 2019 after former U.S. Sen.Johnny Isakson (R) resigned for health reasons. Warnock andJon Ossoff—who defeatedDavid Perdue (R), 50.6% to 49.4% in a runoff for the state's other Senate seat on the same day—became the first Democrats to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate since 2005.[4] In Georgia, a general election advances to a runoff between the two top finishers if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. Warnock serves as the senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. also served as pastor. Walker is a Hall of Fame professional football player who attended the University of Georgia, played in the National Football League, and owned two food-supply businesses.

Pennsylvania

John Fetterman (D),Mehmet Oz (R), and six other candidates ran in Pennsylvania’sU.S. Senate election. Incumbent SenatorPat Toomey (R)—who was first elected in 2010—did not seek re-election. The past two presidential elections in Pennsylvania were decided by less than two percentage points. Pennsylvania is one of two states in 2022, along withWisconsin, where Republicans are defending a seat in a state thatJoe Biden (D) won in2020.CBS News' Sarah Ewall-Wice wrote, "The Senate race in Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground for both parties fighting over who will control the Senate after the November elections. Democrats see it as a possible pickup, with GOP Senator Pat Toomey retiring."[5]Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski wrote, "Keeping the seat in Republican hands is an important part of the party's effort to flip control of the 50-50 Senate."[6]

Wisconsin

Wisconsin

Incumbent U.S. Sen.Ron Johnson (R), Lieutenant GovernorMandela Barnes (D), and write-in candidateScott Aubart (American Independent Party) ran in the general election to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate. Johnson was first elected in 2010, defeating then-incumbent Sen.Russ Feingold (D), 52% to 47%. Johnson won re-election in2016 in a rematch with Feingold, 50% to 47%. In2018, incumbent Sen.Tammy Baldwin (D) defeatedLeah Vukmir (R), 55% to 45%, for the state's other U.S. Senate seat. The two most recent presidential elections in Wisconsin were both decided by less than one percentage point. In the2020 election, PresidentJoe Biden (D) won the state over then-incumbent PresidentDonald Trump (R), 49.5% to 48.8%. In the2016 election, Trump carried Wisconsin with 47.2% of the vote toHillary Clinton's (D) 46.5%. At the start of the 2022 election cycle,Inside Elections rated this stateBattleground Republican.[7] Wisconsin was one of two states that held aU.S. Senate election in 2022 with a Republican incumbent that PresidentJoe Biden carried in the2020 presidential election. Wisconsin was also one of six states with one Democratic and one Republican U.S. Senator as of the2022 U.S. Senate elections.[8]

Gubernatorial races

See also:Gubernatorial elections, 2022

There were 36gubernatorial seats on the ballot in 2022. The governor is the political and ceremonial head of each state and he or she may also assume additional roles, such as the commander-in-chief of the National Guard when the role is not federalized. The governor may also have the ability to commute or pardon a criminal sentence. These elections took place in the context of the2020 census and reapportionment, the lead-up to the2024 presidential election, and the recovery from thecoronavirus pandemic. Heading into the 2022 elections, 28 states had Republican governors and 22 states had Democratic governors. Of the offices up for election in 2022, 20 were held by Republicans and 16 were held by Democrats.

Arizona

Katie Hobbs (D),Kari Lake (R),Barry J. Hess (L), andWilliams Pounds (Independent-Green Party) ran in the general election forgovernor of Arizona.Doug Ducey (R) was not able to run for re-election due toterm limits. Hobbs, a former social worker, is thesecretary of state, a position to which she was first elected in2018. Previously, Hobbs served in theArizona State Senate from 2013 to 2019 and in theArizona House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013. Lake is a former news anchor for Fox 10 News inPhoenix. Lake said she is "running ... on a platform of common sense conservatism dedicated to individual liberties, low taxes, limited regulation, and protecting Arizona's great Western heritage."[9] Hobbs campaigned on expanding career and technical training, creating a state-level child tax credit to lower costs for families with children, and strengthening border security.[10] Hobbs said she would "veto unabashedly any further restrictions on access to reproductive health care."[11]

Kansas

Kansas

IncumbentLaura Kelly (D),Derek Schmidt (R),Seth Cordell (L), andDennis Pyle (Independent) ran in the general election forgovernor of Kansas on November 8, 2022. This is theonly governorship Democrats are defending in 2022 in a state thatDonald Trump (R) won in2020. TheCook Political Report,Sabato's Crystal Ball, andInside Electionsrate the election as atoss-up. Kelly was elected governor in2018, defeating RepublicanKris Kobach by a margin of five percentage points. Kobach had defeated then-incumbent Gov.Jeff Colyer (R) in theRepublican primary by 343 votes, or one-tenth of a percentage point. Before becoming governor, Kelly served in theKansas State Senate from 2005 to 2019.

Nevada

IncumbentSteve Sisolak (D),Joe Lombardo (R),Edward Bridges II (I), andBrandon Davis (L) ran in the general election forgovernor of Nevada on November 8, 2022. Sisolak was first elected governor in 2018 after serving on the Clark County Commission and the Nevada Board of Regents. Lombardo served in the U.S. Army, Army Reserve, and the National Guard and was a police office in Las Vegas. Lombardo was elected Clark County sheriff in 2014. PresidentJoe Biden (D) carried Nevada over PresidentDonald Trump (R), 50.1% to 47.7%, in the2020 presidential election.Hillary Clinton (D) carried the state in the2016 presidential election, 47.9% to 45.5%.

Oregon

Tina Kotek (D),Christine Drazan (R),Betsy Johnson (I), andR. Leon Noble (L) ran in the Oregon gubernatorial election on November 8, 2022. Incumbent GovernorKate Brown (D) wasterm-limited and could not run for re-election. Kotek, Drazan, and Johnson led the field infundraising and media coverage.[12] Kyle Kondik ofSabato’s Crystal Ball wrote, “the state is hosting an unusual 3-way race among a trio of women who are all recent members of the state legislature. [...] The race sets up an unusual situation where the winner may not need to crack even 40%.”[12] Writing about theJuly 29 gubernatorial debate,Oregon Public Broadcasting’s Dirk VanderHart said the candidates, “attempted to stake out the political lanes they hope to ride to victory in November: Kotek as the accomplished progressive, Johnson as the centrist unifier, and Drazan as the change agent for a state that has [...] one-party control.”[13] Brown defeated state Rep.Knute Buehler (R), 50% to 44%, to win re-election in 2018. The last time Oregon voted for a Republican presidential candidate was 1984 and for a Republican senator, 2002.

U.S. House

See also:United States House of Representatives elections, 2022
U.S. House

The seats of all 435 representatives to theU.S. House were up for election. As a result of the2020 elections, Democrats maintained a majority in the U.S. House, winning 222 seats to Republicans' 213. As of September 2022, Democrats held a 221-212 advantage in the U.S. House with two vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. The 2022 election was the first to take place following apportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. As a result of apportionment, six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained seats, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.

Colorado's 8th Congressional District

Yadira Caraveo (D),Barbara Kirkmeyer (R), and three others ran in the general election forColorado's 8th Congressional District on November 8, 2022. The 8th District, located north of Denver and including parts ofAdams,Larimer, andWeld Counties, was one of sevennew congressional districts created after the 2020 census and the first new congressional district in Colorado since 2001.Bloomberg Government's Zach Cohen wrote, "The diversity and competitiveness of Colorado's new 8th District has it primed to serve as a key House race in congressional midterms this year and beyond."[14]

New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District

IncumbentChris Pappas (D) andKaroline Leavitt (R) ran in the general election forNew Hampshire's 1st Congressional District on November 8, 2022. The 1st District was one of31 U.S. House districts thatDonald Trump (R) won in the2016 presidential election and a Democratic candidate won in the2018 midterm elections. From 2010 to 2016, the 1st District switched between Democratic and Republican control four times between two candidates:Carol Shea-Porter (D) andFrank Guinta (R). Guinta challenged and defeated incumbent Shea-Porter in 2010 and 2014. Shea-Porter challenged and defeated incumbent Guinta in 2012 and 2016 before retiring.

State legislatures

See also:State legislative elections, 2022

Eighty-eight of the country's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections. Elections in those 88 chambers represented 6,278 of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats (85%).Heading into the 2022 elections, Republicans controlled 54% of all state legislative seats nationally, while Democrats held 44%. Republicans held a majority in 62 chambers, and Democrats held the majority in 36 chambers. One chamber—theAlaska House—was organized under a multipartisan, power-sharing coalition.

Arizona House of Representatives

Republicans had held 31 of the 60 seats in theArizona House of Representatives since after the 2018 elections, giving that party a two-seat majority over that period.[15] All 60 seats were up for election in 2022.Republicans needed to lose fewer than two net seats to maintain control of the chamber, and Democrats needed to win three net seats to flip the chamber. Arizona has been under a Republicantrifecta since 2009 when Jan Brewer assumed the governorship and Republicans have held majorities in both legislative chambers since 1993. Arizona voters decided all 30 seats in theArizona State Senate and thegovernor's race in 2022. Arizona enacted new legislative maps on January 24, 2022, after the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission voted to finalize and certify them on Jan. 21.[16][17] The commission's nonpartisan chairwoman joined the two Republican members voting in favor of the map, and the commission's two Democratic members were opposed.[18]

Colorado State Senate

Colorado State Senate

Democrats had a 21-14 majority in theColorado State Senate. Seventeen seats were up for election in 2022. As of the 2022 election, the Democratic Party controlled eight seats and the Republican Party controlled nine seats. Currently, the state of Colorado is under a Democratictrifecta, which has been in place since 2019. If the Democratic Party lost no more than three seats in the state Senate, nine seats in the state House, and maintains control of the governorship it would have maintained its trifecta. If the Republican Party flipped four or more seats in the state Senate, then the Democratic Party would have lost its trifecta. Colorado voters decided all 65 seats in theColorado House of Representatives and thegovernor's race in 2022. TheColorado Supreme Court approved the state's legislative redistricting plans on November 15, 2021, after the Colorado Independent Legislative Redistricting Commission adopted them on October 11 and 12, 2021.[19]Colorado Politics' Evan Wyloge wrote that the new maps created nine House districts where previous election results fell within a five percentage point margin and eight such Senate districts. At the time of approval, Democrats held a 42-23 majority in the House and a 20-15 majority in the Senate.[20] All twelve commissioners—four unaffiliated commissioners, four Democrats, and four Republicans—approved the final vote for the state Senate map.[21]

Municipal elections

See also:United States mayoral elections, 2022

Ballotpedia covered34 mayoral elections in 2022. This included all mayoral elections inAmerica's 100 largest cities by population and ineach state capital. Heading into 2022, the mayors of 62 of the country's 100 largest cities were affiliated with the Democratic Party, 26 were Republicans, four were independents, seven mayors were nonpartisan, and one mayor's partisan affiliation was unknown. Thirty-eight state capitals had a Democratic mayor, five had a Republican mayor, one mayor was independent, two were nonpartisan, and four mayors' partisan affiliations were unknown.

Los Angeles Mayor

Karen Bass andRick Caruso ran in the nonpartisan general election for mayor ofLos Angeles, California. The candidates advanced from the June 7 primary election since neither received 50% of the vote. Incumbent MayorEric Garcetti could not run for re-election due to term limits.The New York Times' Jennifer Medina wrote that the race “has focused on voters’ worries about public safety and homelessness in the nation’s second-largest city” and could “become a test of whether voters this year favor an experienced politician who has spent nearly two decades in government or an outsider running on his business credentials.”[22] This was the first even-year election for Los Angeles mayor since the 2015 passage ofCharter Amendment 1, which shifted city elections to even-numbered years beginning in 2020. Bass representedCalifornia's 37th Congressional District and served in theCalifornia State Assembly from 2005 to 2010. Caruso was the founder and chief executive officer of a retail complex development company and served on Los Angeles’ Department of Water and Power Commission, as the president of Los Angeles’ Police Commission, and on the USC Board of Trustees.[23][24]

State supreme court elections

See also:State supreme court elections, 2022

Thirty states are holding state supreme court elections in 2022. In total, 84 of the 344 seats on state supreme courts are up for election. Of these seats, 64 were held by nonpartisan justices, 12 were held byRepublican justices, and eight were held byDemocratic justices.

Ohio Supreme Court

Ohio Supreme Court

The seats of threeOhio Supreme Court justices were up forpartisan election—Republican justicesMaureen O'Connor,Pat Fischer, andPat DeWine. According to an analysis byBolts, Ohio was one of four states where the partisan balance of the state's highest court could change as a result of the 2022 elections.[25] Heading into the election, Ohio's supreme court was made up of four Republican justices and three Democratic justices. This marked the first Ohio Supreme Court election where candidates were listed on the general election ballot with a party signifier next to their names.Politico's Zach Montellaro and Shia Kapos wrote, "For the first time in the state, candidates will have party affiliation next to their name on the general election ballot — previously they were nominated by the parties, but party affiliation was not listed for the general election — and the race would be moved up the ballot to be grouped with other statewide offices instead of being listed down below."[26] Ohio last held state supreme court elections in2020.

Other state executive elections

See also:State executive official elections, 2022

State executive offices up for election in 2022 included 30lieutenant gubernatorial seats, 30attorney general seats, and 27secretary of state seats. Including down-ballot races, there were 307 state executive seats up for election across 44 states in 2022.State executives act in many capacities according to the powers granted to them by their state's constitution. They are also charged with implementing and enforcing laws made by state legislatures. There are 748executive seats spread across13 distinct types of offices in the United States.[27] The secretary of state is a state-level position in 47 of the 50 states that often serves as the chief election official in their state, administering state elections and maintaining official election results. This is one of 27 elections—14 Republican-held and 13 Democratic-held—for secretaries of state that took place in 2022.

Arizona Secretary of State

Adrian Fontes (D) andMark Finchem (R) ran in the general election for Arizona secretary of state on November 8, 2022. The incumbent—Katie Hobbs (D)— ran for governor. Hobbs defeatedSteve Gaynor (R), 50.4% to 49.6%, in 2018. Before that year,Republican Party had held the office since the 1994 elections. Fontes is an attorney who served in the United States Marine Corps and was theMaricopa County Recorder from 2016 to 2020.[28] Finchem is a rancher, former police officer, and software company executive who was elected as a member of theArizona House of Representatives in 2015.[29]

Election coverage by office

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Election coverage by state

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Election resources

Footnotes

  1. ↑Tulsa World, "U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe announces retirement after 35 years in Congress representing Oklahoma," February 25, 2022
  2. ↑This number includes Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) seat, up for a special election on November 8, 2022.
  3. ↑McSally had been appointed to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Sen.Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and death of Sen.John McCain. (R-Ariz.)
  4. ↑Newsweek, “Walker's Chances of Beating Warnock With 100 Days to Midterm: Polls,” August 11, 2022
  5. ↑CBS News, "Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman to return to in-person campaigning after stroke in May," August 5, 2022
  6. ↑Roll Call, "Oz seeks to rally GOP against very online Fetterman campaign," August 22, 2022
  7. ↑Inside Elections, "Senate Ratings," March 8, 2021
  8. ↑This includes Sen. Angus King (Maine) who was an independent that caucuses with Democrats.
  9. ↑Kari Lake 2022 campaign website, "Kari Lake Bio," accessed June 29, 2022
  10. ↑Katie Hobbs 2022 campaign website, "KATIE HOBBS' PLAN FOR SECURING ARIZONA," accessed November 6, 2022
  11. ↑KTAR News, "Democratic Arizona gubernatorial Hobbs vows to protect women, providers following abortion ruling," June 25, 2022
  12. ↑12.012.1Sabato's Crystal Ball, "The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West," August 18, 2022
  13. ↑Oregon Public Broadcasting, "Oregon governor candidates stake their positions in first debate," July 29, 2022
  14. ↑Bloomberg Government, "Colorado’s Most Competitive House District Could Be ‘Bellwether,'" July 7, 2022
  15. ↑The current partisan balance of the Arizona House is 31 Republicans, 28 Democrats, and one vacancy.
  16. ↑Phone conversation with Valerie Neumann, AIRC executive assistant, Jan. 25, 2022
  17. ↑Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, "Official Maps," accessed Jan. 21, 2022
  18. ↑Tucson Sentinel, "Arizona Redistricting Commission gives final certification to new election maps," Jan. 21, 2022
  19. ↑The Colorado Sun, "Colorado legislative maps get final approval from state Supreme Court," Nov. 15, 2021
  20. ↑Colorado Politics, "Supreme Court approves Colorado legislative redistricting maps," Nov. 15, 2021
  21. ↑The Denver Post, "Colorado’s redistricting commission picked new maps for the state House and Senate. Here’s what they look like." Oct. 12, 2021
  22. ↑The New York Times, "Rick Caruso and Karen Bass head to a runoff in the Los Angeles mayor’s race.," June 8, 2022
  23. ↑LinkedIn, "Caruso," accessed May 16, 2022
  24. ↑Rick Caruso's campaign website, "Meet Rick Caruso," accessed May 16, 2022
  25. ↑Bolts, "Your State-by-State Guide to the 2022 Supreme Court Elections," May 11, 2022
  26. ↑Politico, "Redistricting, abortion supercharge state Supreme Court races," August 17, 2022
  27. ↑There are 13 state executive offices as Ballotpediadefines the term, however there are other executive offices in some states that are not covered by Ballotpedia.
  28. ↑Elect Fontes, "Meet Adrian Fontes," accessed September 14, 2022
  29. ↑Mark Finchem, Secretary of State, "Meet Mark Finchem," accessed September 14, 2022