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Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014

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Arizona Gubernatorial Election
Primary Date:
August 26, 2014
General Election Date:
November 4, 2014
Race rating:
November 4 Election Winner:
Doug DuceyRepublican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Jan BrewerRepublican Party
JanBrewer Portrait.jpg
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TheArizona gubernatorial election took place onNovember 4, 2014, following a primary onAugust 26. IncumbentJan Brewer, a Republican who went fromArizona Secretary of State toArizona Governor following formerDemocratic Gov.Janet Napolitano's 2009 departure, won a full term as governor in 2010 and was ineligible for re-election in 2014 because of term limits. Brewer initially considered mounting a legal challenge to the term limit laws barring her from seeking a second consecutive four-year term, but ultimately conceded the issue.Doug Ducey (R) won the race againstFred DuVal (D) to replace Brewer.

In the months prior to the general election, the race was rated "Likely R" byThe Cook Political Report, predicting that another Republican would likely follow Brewer in the position.[1] Meanwhile,Governing rated the race between major party nominees Ducey and DuVal as a "Toss-up."[2] Learn more about Brewer, the 2014 candidates and the Republican primary by jumping to therace background section.

TheArizona State Senate was also identified by Ballotpedia as one of the top 20 legislative chambers to watch in 2014. Both legislative chambers and the governor's office were held by the Republican Party, making Arizona astate government trifecta. Republicans maintained trifecta status following the 2014 election.

Aprimary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Arizona utilizes asemi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[3]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, seethis article.

Candidates

General election

Republican PartyDoug DuceyGreen check mark transparent.png[4][5]
Democratic PartyFred DuVal[6]
Libertarian PartyBarry J. Hess[7][8]
Independent (Americans Elect)J.L. Mealer[9]
Grey.png (Write-in)J. Johnson
Grey.png (Write-in)Diana-Elizabeth Kennedy
Grey.png (Write-in)Brian Bailey[10]
Grey.png (Write-in)Carey Dolego[10]
Republican Party (Write-in)Alice Novoa
Unaffiliated,Curtis Woolsey

Term-limited

Republican PartyJan Brewer -Incumbent

Lost in the primary

Republican PartyMike Aloisi[11]
Republican PartyKen Bennett[12]
Republican PartyChristine Jones[13]
Republican Party (Write-in)Alice Lukasik[14]
Republican PartyFrank Riggs[15]
Republican PartyScott Smith[16][17]
Republican PartyAndrew Thomas[4][18]

Results

General election

Governor of Arizona, 2014
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey53.4%805,062
    DemocraticFred DuVal41.6%626,921
    LibertarianBarry J. Hess3.8%57,337
    Americans ElectJ.L. Mealer1%15,432
    Nonpartisan Write-ins0.1%1,664
Total Votes1,506,416
Election results viaArizona Secretary of State

Primary election

Republican primary

Governor of Arizona Republican Primary, 2014
CandidateVote %Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey37.2%200,607
Scott Smith22.1%119,107
Christine Jones16.7%89,922
Ken Bennett11.5%62,010
Andrew Thomas8.1%43,822
Frank Riggs4.5%24,168
Mike Aloisi (Write-in)0%27
Alice Lukasik (Write-in)0%27
Total Votes539,690
Election results viaArizona Secretary of State.

Democratic primary

  • Uncontested

Race background

Term limits for Gov. Brewer

IncumbentJan Brewer (R) was term-limited from seeking re-election, which left the seat open for the 2014 election. The race was ratedLikely R byThe Cook Political Report, meaning Brewer was likely to be succeeded by another Republican according to their assessment.[19]Governing rated the general election race betweenDoug Ducey (R) andFred DuVal (D) as aToss-up.[20]

Brewer was originally appointed to the position in 2009, and she was then elected to it in 2010. Arizona's term limit laws preclude any individual who has occupied the governor's office during two consecutive terms from running for re-election. Brewer asserted that the law did not adequately account for the conditions of her incomplete first term, but she did not pursue a court challenge for an exemption.[21]

Republican primary

Candidates in the GOP primary included outgoingArizona State TreasurerDoug Ducey,Secretary of StateKen Bennett, Mesa MayorScott Smith, and former GoDaddy.com Executive Vice PresidentChristine Jones. Ducey won the primary with 37.2 percent of the vote, followed by Smith in second place with 22.1 percent.

Democratic primary

Former Arizona Board of Regents PresidentFred DuVal won the Democratic nomination by default as the only candidate to file in the primary.[22]

Debates

September 29 debate

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission hosted a debate featuringDoug Ducey (R),Fred DuVal (D),Barry J. Hess (L) andAmericans Elect candidateJ.L. Mealer. The four candidates disagreed over the state's expansion ofMedicaid, a health-insurance program for low-income residents, under theAffordable Care Act. Ducey, who opposed the expansion prior to implementation, said he would allow continued expansion over a three-year period where the federal government provides matching funds. DuVal and Mealer voiced support for the expansion, with DuVal noting that repeal would be burdensome not only to patients but the state economy. Hess said he would end the expansion because its success had led to excessive tax increases.[23]

The debate also highlighted differences among the major party candidates overGov. Jan Brewer's decision to block issuance of driver's licenses to young adults who came to the United States without proper documentation. Ducey said he would continue the policy if elected. DuVal said that repealing the prohibition would be his first act as governor.[23]

Polls

General election
Ducey vs. DuVal vs. Hess

Arizona Governor - General election match-ups
PollDoug Ducey (R)Fred DuVal (D)Barry J. Hess (L)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
American Encore
October 20-22, 2014		42%35%7%15%+/-4601
Moore Information
October 7-8, 2014		36%39%3%22%+/-4.9400
Keating (D-Restore Arizona's Future PAC)
September 17-19, 2014		41%39%7%13%+/-4.0600
Terrance (R-Arizona Free Enterprise Club)
September 15-17, 2014		44%38%6%11%+/-4.5505
The Arizona Republic
August 24-25, 2014		35%35%12%18%+/-4.0588
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)
February 3-6, 2014		32%32%6%30%+/-3.5500
AVERAGES 38.33% 36.33% 6.83% 18.17% +/-4.15 532.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org.

Ducey vs. Duval

Governor of Arizona - Ducey vs. DuVal
PollDoug Ducey (R)Fred DuVal (D)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
October 16-23, 2014		50%40%10%+/-42,621
Rasmussen Reports
October 14-16, 2014		47%42%10%+/-31,056
New York Times/CBS/YouGov
September 20-October 1, 2014		50%39%11%+/-32,808
Rasmussen Reports
August 27-28, 2014		40%40%13%+/-4.0850
Susquehanna Polling and Research
November 2013		36%33%31%+/--600
AVERAGES 44.6% 38.8% 15% +/-1.2 1,587
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org.

Primary polling
Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP Primary
PollKen BennettDoug DuceyChristine JonesFrank RiggsScott SmithAndrew ThomasUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Harper Polling
August 19-20, 2014		14%32%16%2%19%7%10%+/-3.44812
Arizona Automobile Dealers Association
August 15, 2014		10%31%16%3%23%7%10%1,300
Harper Polling
July 16-17, 2014		12%23%21%1%13%7%22%+/-3.29885
Gravis Marketing
July 14, 2014		7%28%19%1%14%8%24%+/-4.0691
Magellan Strategies
July 9-10, 2014		11%26%22%2%14%6%19%+/-4.02593
Harper Polling
June 25-26, 2014		12%33%15%2%14%3%22%+/-3.48791
AVERAGES 11% 28.83% 18.17% 1.83% 16.17% 6.33% 17.83% +/-3.04 845.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican primary

Arizona Governor - GOP primary
PollKen BennettChristine JonesAl MelvinAndrew ThomasDoug DuceyScott SmithUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Susquehanna Polling and Research
(November 2013)
20%4%2%4%8%6%53%+/--245
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign media

General election

Doug Ducey

Doug Ducey ad: Different (October 15, 2014)

Fred DuVal

Fred DuVal ad: Trust (September 19, 2014)
Fred DuVal ad: Forward (October 22, 2014)

Outside organizations

Republican Governors Association

RGA ad: What is Fred DuVal Hiding? (October 14, 2014)

Primary election

Doug Ducey

Doug Ducey: "Direct Message" - Posted to YouTube at 4/29/14

Scott Smith

Proven Results - Posted to YouTube 7/10/14
Protecting Arizona - Posted to YouTube 7/9/14
Scott Smith for Arizona Governor 2014 - Posted to YouTube 6/10/14

Past elections

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jan Brewer won re-election to the office of Governor of Arizona. She defeated Terry Goddard (D), Barry J. Hess (LBT), Larry Gist (Green) and various write-in challengers in the general election.

Governor of Arizona, 2010
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngJan BrewerIncumbent54.3%938,934
    Democratic Terry Goddard42.4%733,935
    Libertarian Barry J. Hess2.2%38,722
    Green Larry Gist0.9%16,128
    N/A Write-ins0.1%2,017
Total Votes1,729,736
Election results viaArizona Secretary of State.

2006

Arizona Governor, 2006
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngJanet NapolitanoIncumbent62.6%959,830
    Republican Len Munsil35.4%543,528
    Libertarian Barry J. Hess, II2%30,268
    Write-in Arthur Ray Arvizu0%10
    Write-in Robert B. Winn0%3
    Write-in Brian Wright0%6
Total Votes1,533,645
Election results viaArizona Secretary of State

2002

Arizona Governor, 2002
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngJanet Napolitano46.2%566,284
    Republican Matt Salmon45.2%554,465
    Independent Richard Mahoney6.9%84,947
    Libertarian Barry Hess1.7%20,356
    Write-in Assorted0%59
Total Votes1,226,111
Election results viaArizona Secretary of State

Voter turnout

Political scientist Michael McDonald's United States Elections Project studied voter turnout in the 2014 election by looking at the percentage of eligible voters who headed to the polls. McDonald used voting-eligible population (VEP), or the number of eligible voters independent of their current registration status, to calculate turnout rates in each state on November 4. He also incorporated ballots cast for the highest office in each state into his calculation. He estimated that 81,687,059 ballots were cast in the 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia, representing 35.9 percent of the VEP.[24] By comparison, 61.6 percent of VEP voted in the 2008 presidential election and 58.2 percent of VEP voted in the 2012 presidential election.[25]

Quick facts

  • According toPBS Newshour, voter turnout in the 2014 midterms was the lowest since the 1942 midterms, which took place during the nation's involvement in World War II.[26]
  • Forty-three states and the District of Columbia did not surpass 50 percent turnout in McDonald's analysis.
  • The three states with the lowest turnout according to McDonald's analysis wereTexas (28.3 percent),Tennessee (28.6 percent), andIndiana (28.8 percent).
  • Maine (58.5 percent),Wisconsin (56.5 percent), andColorado (54.5 percent) were the three states with the highest turnout.
  • Twelve states increased voter turnout in 2014 compared to the 2010 midterm elections.[27]
Voter turnout rates, 2014
StateTotal votes counted% voter eligible populationTop statewide office up for electionSize of lead (Raw votes)Size of lead (%)
Alabama1,191,27433.2Governor320,31927.2
Alaska285,43154.4Governor4,0041.6
Arizona1,537,67134.1Governor143,95112.5
Arkansas852,64240.1Governor118,66414.0
California7,513,97230.8Governor1,065,74817.8
Colorado2,080,07154.5Governor50,3952.4
Connecticut1,096,50942.5Governor26,6032.5
Delaware234,03834.4Attorney General31,15513.6
District of Columbia177,17635.8Mayor27,93419.0
Florida6,026,80243.3Governor66,1271.1
Georgia2,596,94738.5Governor202,6858.0
Hawaii369,55436.5Governor45,32312.4
Idaho445,30739.6Governor65,85214.9
Illinois3,680,41740.9Governor171,9004.9
Indiana1,387,62228.8Secretary of State234,97817.8
Iowa1,142,28450.2Governor245,54821.8
Kansas887,02343.4Governor33,0523.9
Kentucky1,435,86844.0U.S. Senate222,09615.5
Louisiana1,472,03943.8U.S. Senate16,4011.1
Maine616,99658.5Governor29,8204.9
Maryland1,733,17741.5Governor88,6486.1
Massachusetts2,186,78944.6Governor40,3611.9
Michigan3,188,95643.2Governor129,5474.3
Minnesota1,992,61350.5Governor109,7765.6
Mississippi631,85828.9U.S. Senate141,23433.0
Missouri1,426,30331.8Auditor684,07453.6
Montana373,83147.3U.S. Senate65,26217.9
Nebraska552,11541.5Governor97,67818.7
Nevada547,34929.0Governor255,79346.7
New Hampshire495,56548.4Governor24,9245.2
New Jersey1,955,04232.5N/AN/AN/A
New Mexico512,80535.7Governor73,86814.6
New York3,930,31029.0Governor476,25213.4
North Carolina2,939,76741.2U.S. Senate48,5111.7
North Dakota255,12845.0U.S. House At-large seat42,21417.1
Ohio3,149,87636.2Governor933,23530.9
Oklahoma824,83129.8Governor122,06014.7
Oregon1,541,78253.5Governor59,0294.5
Pennsylvania3,495,86636.0Governor339,2619.8
Rhode Island329,21242.2Governor14,3464.5
South Carolina1,261,61135.2Governor179,08914.6
South Dakota282,29144.9Governor124,86545.1
Tennessee1,374,06528.6Governor642,21447.5
Texas4,727,20828.3Governor957,97320.4
Utah577,97330.2Attorney General173,81935.2
Vermont193,08738.8Governor2,0951.1
Virginia2,194,34636.6U.S. Senate16,7270.8
Washington2,123,90143.1N/AN/AN/A
West Virginia451,49831.2U.S. Senate124,66727.6
Wisconsin2,410,31456.5Governor137,6075.7
Wyoming168,39039.3Governor52,70333.6

Note: Information from the United States Elections Project was last updated on December 16, 2014.

Campaign finance

Comprehensive donor information for this election has been collected by Follow the Money. Based on available campaign finance records, the candidates raised a total of$21,778,948 during the election. This information was last updated on May 9, 2015.[28]

Campaign Contribution Totals
CandidateOfficeResultContributions
Doug DuceyRepublican PartyArizona GovernorWon$8,081,966
Christine JonesRepublican PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$5,554,672
Fred DuValDemocratic PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$4,668,341
Scott SmithRepublican PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$1,652,090
Ken BennettRepublican PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$786,082
Andrew ThomasRepublican PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$763,957
Frank RiggsRepublican PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$225,149
Al MelvinDemocratic PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$35,009
J. JohnsonGrey.pngArizona GovernorDefeated$5,821
Barry J. HessLibertarian PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$3,634
J.L. MealerGrey.pngArizona GovernorDefeated$1,922
Alice NovoaRepublican PartyArizona GovernorDefeated$305
Carey DolegoGrey.pngArizona GovernorDefeated$0
Diana-Elizabeth KennedyGrey.pngArizona GovernorDefeated$0
Curtis WoolseyArizona GovernorDefeated$0
Brian BaileyGrey.pngArizona GovernorDefeated$0
Grand Total Raised$21,778,948

Key deadlines

DeadlineEvent
May 28, 2014Filing deadline for major party candidates
July 17, 2014Filing deadline for write-in candidates (Primary)
August 26, 2014Primary election
September 25, 2014Filing deadline for write-in candidates (General)
November 4, 2014General election
December 1, 2014Official Canvass of general election results
January 5, 2015Inauguration day for state executive officials in general election

Recent news

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search forArizona + Governor + Election + 2014


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  2. ↑Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  3. ↑Arizona Legislature, "Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 16-467," accessed November 25, 2025
  4. ↑4.04.1East Valley Tribune, State treasurer Doug Ducey files paperwork to explore Ariz governor run, July 23, 2013
  5. ↑Doug Ducey for Governor 2014 Official campaign website, "Homepage," accessed September 1, 2013
  6. ↑Fred DuVal Governor 2014, accessed April 2, 2013
  7. ↑ABC 15, LIST: Race heats up for Arizona Governor, January 9, 2014
  8. ↑The Republic, "Libertarian candidate to be on ballot in Arizona governor's race after GOP challenge dismissed," June 19, 2014
  9. ↑J.L. Mealer Governor 2014, accessed July 25, 2013
  10. ↑10.010.1Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 General Election Writein Candidates," accessed September 29, 2014Cite error: Invalid<ref> tag; name "candlist" defined multiple times with different content
  11. ↑Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Election Writein Candidates," accessed July 3, 2014
  12. ↑Eastern Arizona Courier, "Bennett announces candidacy," September 17, 2013
  13. ↑Christine Jones for Governor 2014 Official Campaign Website, "Homepage," accessed September 19, 2013
  14. ↑Cite error: Invalid<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs namedfulllisting
  15. ↑The Arizona Republic, "Former California congressman enters Arizona governor race," January 23, 2014
  16. ↑azcentral.com, "Mesa Mayor Smith will quit to run for governor," January 9, 2014
  17. ↑Politico, "Republican mayor Scott Smith rises in Arizona," March 8, 2013
  18. ↑The Arizona Republic, "Disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Thomas to run for governor," April 26, 2013
  19. ↑The Cook Political Report, "Governors Race Ratings 2014," September 15, 2014
  20. ↑Governing, "2014 Governors Races," September 10, 2014
  21. ↑USA Today, "Facing term limit, Ariz. Gov. Brewer won't run again," March 12, 2014
  22. ↑AZCentral, "Fred DuVal sees pros, cons of no primary challenger," May 8, 2014
  23. ↑23.023.112 News & The Arizona Republic, "Governor candidates debate Arizona highs, lows," September 30, 2014
  24. ↑United States Elections Project, "2014 November General Election Turnout Rates," November 7, 2014
  25. ↑TIME, "Voter Turnout in Midterm Elections Hits 72-Year Low," November 10, 2014
  26. ↑PBS, "2014 midterm election turnout lowest in 70 years," November 10, 2014
  27. ↑U.S. News & World Report, "Midterm Turnout Down in 2014," November 5, 2014
  28. ↑Follow the Money, "Overview of Arizona 2014 elections," accessed May 9, 2015
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