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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 6, 2016

From Ballotpedia
2016 State
Legislative Elections
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Part 1: Overview
Part 2: Battlegrounds
Part 3: Competitiveness
  Impact of term limits
Part 4: Elections by state
  Election dates
2016 Elections
Choose a chamber below:


Ballotpedia’s annual study of state legislative election competitiveness revealed that2016 elections were less competitive than recent elections on average, but more competitive than the 2014 elections.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Incumbents ran for 82.6% of seats up for election in 2016.
  • Of the incumbents running for re-election, 79.8% did not face primary opposition.
  • In 42.4% of general election races, candidates faced no opposition from the other party.

    • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2016 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices.Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    See also:Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections
    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2016
    2010201220142016AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index34.635.230.831.733.1
    Open seats18.7%21.9%16.8%17.4%18.7%
    Inc. in contested primaries20.0%23.3%19.5%20.2%20.8%
    Seats with major party competition65.0%60.4%56.0%57.6%59.8%

    Open seats

    See also:Open seats in state legislative elections, 2016

    There were5,916 state legislative seats up for election on November 8, 2016, in 44 states. Of that total, there were1,032 open seats, guaranteeing at least17% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the same percentage as in 2014 (17%) but lower than in 2010 (19%) and 2012 (22%).

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2016:

  • There were421 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were602 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There werenine other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing. It also includes seats where Ballotpedia could not determine partisan control due toredistricting.
  • The total number of open seats—1,032—was the second-lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010, representing a 1% increase from 2014.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2016
    ChamberSeats
    DemocraticRepublicanOtherTotal
    #%
    House4,710330457779416.9%
    Senate1,20691145223819.7%
    Total5,91642160291,03217.4%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2016. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholders could not be determined due to redistricting.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also:State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2016

    There were5,916 state legislative seats up for election on November 8, 2016, in 44 states. Overall, 4,887 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total,985 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the same percentage as in 2010 and 2014 (20%) but lower than in 2012 (23%).

    A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about theterms andmethodologies used in this analysis.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2016:

  • There were402 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 19% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 3% decrease from 2014.
  • There were582 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 22% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 2% increase from 2014.
  • There wasone minor party or independent incumbent in contested primaries, representing 8% of all minor party or independent incumbents who filed for re-election.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—985—was up from 2014 (983), representing no percentage change.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2016
    ChamberSeats
    DemocraticRepublicanTotal[1]
    FiledCont.%FiledCont.%FiledCont.%
    House4,7101,71731518.3%2,19048021.9%3,91879520.3%
    Senate1,2064518719.3%51710219.7%96919019.6%
    Total5,9162,16840218.5%2,70758221.5%4,88798520.2%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2010 to 2016.

    All contested primaries

    See also:Contested state legislative primaries, 2016

    This section shows figures onall contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were5,538 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating10,827 possible primaries. Of that total, there were1,800 contested primaries, meaning17% of all primaries were contested. This was up from 2014 (16%) but down from 2010 (18%) and 2012 (18%).

    In 2016:

  • There were752 contested Democratic primaries, representing 14% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 16% increase from 2014.
  • There were940 contested Republican primaries, representing 18% of all possible Republican primaries and a 2% decrease from 2014.
  • There were108 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 43% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 15% increase from 2014.
  • The total number of contested primaries—1,800—was up from 1,698 in 2014, representing a 6% increase.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2016
    ChamberDistricts
    DemocraticRepublicanTop-two/fourTotal
    #%#%#%#%
    House4,34958614.0%72817.5%7341.0%1,38716.3%
    Senate1,18916614.8%21219.0%3549.3%41317.9%
    Total5,53875214.2%94017.8%10843.4%1,80016.6%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2010 to 2016.

    Major party competition

    See also:Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2016

    There were5,916 state legislative seats up for election on November 8, 2016, in 44 states. Of that total,2,508 (42%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 3,408 (58%) were contested by both major parties. The number of seats with no major party competition was less than in 2014 (2,584) but more than in 2010 (2,142) and 2012 (2,384).

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2016:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win 1,272 seats (22%) that lacked Republican competition, a 3% increase from 2014.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win 1,233 seats (21%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 9% decrease from 2014.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 4,680 seats (79%) and Republicans ran for 4,641 (78%).
  • There werethree seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—2,508—was less than in 2014 (2,584), representing a 3% decrease.


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2016
    ChamberSeats
    UncontestedContested
    Only DemocratsOnly RepublicansTotal
    #%#%#%#%
    House4,7101,01121.5%97320.7%1,98742.2%2,72357.8%
    Senate1,20626121.6%26021.6%52143.2%68556.8%
    Total5,9161,27221.5%1,23320.8%2,50842.4%3,40857.6%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2010 to 2016.

    See also

    v • e
    Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections
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    1. ↑Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.