Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 11, 2021
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| 2021 State Legislative Competitiveness | |
|---|---|
 | |
2023» «2019 | |
Open seats •Incumbents in contested primaries •Major party competition Impact of term limits •Incumbents defeated •Primary competitiveness | |
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Ballotpedia's 11th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all220 state legislative seats with elections that took place on November 2, 2021.
Ballotpedia uses three factors to analyze the competitiveness of a state's legislative elections: how many incumbents filed for re-election, how many incumbents have contested primaries, and how many seats are contested between a Democratic and Republican candidate in the general election.
State legislative competitiveness in 2021 reached a decade-high compared to all odd-year election cycles since 2011. This increased competitiveness was driven primarily by elections in theVirginia House of Delegates, one of three chambers that held elections in 2021, the others being the New Jersey stateSenate andGeneral Assembly.
Key findings of this analysis include:
This report is organized into four sections. They are:
Competitiveness overview
Competitiveness in the 2021 state legislative elections reached a decade-high when compared to all election cycles since 2011.
The table below shows the Competitiveness Index for the 2021 state legislative elections as well as the three factors used to calculate the index. Historical indices are also shown for odd-year election cycles. Indices range from 0 to 100 with higher numbers indicating a more competitive electoral field and lower numbers indicating the opposite.Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.
| State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | AVERAGE | ||
| Competitiveness Index | 28.1 | 30.3 | 25.4 | 34.9 | 30.8 | 40.0 | 31.6 | |
| Open seats | 17.0% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 19.5% | 7.7% | 12.5% | |
| Inc. in contested primaries | 21.4% | 11.7% | 23.3% | 16.0% | 28.9% | 19.7% | 20.2% | |
| Seats with major party competition | 46.0% | 72.3% | 38.3% | 79.5% | 44.1% | 92.7% | 62.2% | |
The graph below combines these figures, showing how the increase in major party competition in 2021 affected the overall Competitiveness Index for the cycle.
The table below shows state-specific competitiveness data for Virginia and New Jersey as well as ranks by each criterion. New Jersey exceeded Virginia in every competitiveness criteria in 2021 and had the highest Competitiveness Index at 41.8 compared to Virginia's 38.0.
| State legislative Competitiveness Index scores, 2021 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Seats up | |||||||||
| Open seats | Inc. in contested primaries | Seats with major party competition | Competitiveness Index | |||||||
| % of seats up | Rank | % inc. running | Rank | % of seats up | Rank | Index | Rank | |||
| New Jersey | 120 | 10.0% | 1 | 21.3% | 1 | 94.2% | 1 | 41.8 | 1 | |
| Virginia | 100 | 5.0% | 2 | 17.9% | 2 | 91.0% | 2 | 38.0 | 2 | |
Open seats
There were220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, in two states. Of that total, there were17 open seats, guaranteeing at least8% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was down from 2017 (9%) but higher than in 2013 (7%).
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.
In 2021:
| Open state legislative seats, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Democratic | Republican | Other | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
| # | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| House | 180 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 7.2% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Senate | 40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10.0% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 220 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 17 | 7.7% | ||||||||||||||||||
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2021. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.
Incumbents in contested primaries
There were220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, in two states. Overall, 203 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total,40 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the fourth-largest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.
In 2021:
| State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Democratic | Republican | Total[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Filed | Cont. | % | Filed | Cont. | % | Filed | Cont. | % | ||||||||||||||||
| House | 180 | 101 | 20 | 19.8% | 66 | 16 | 24.2% | 167 | 36 | 21.6% | ||||||||||||||
| Senate | 40 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | ||||||||||||||
| Total | 220 | 125 | 23 | 18.4% | 78 | 17 | 21.8% | 203 | 40 | 19.7% | ||||||||||||||
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2021.
All contested primaries
This section shows figures onall contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were180 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating332 possible primaries. Of that total, there were44 contested primaries, meaning13% of all primaries were contested. This was down from 2017 (14%), which was the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections.
In 2021:
| Contested state legislative primaries, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Districts | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Democratic | Republican | Top-two/four | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||||||||||||||||
| House | 140 | 23 | 17.6% | 14 | 11.6% | 0 | - | 37 | 14.7% | |||||||||||||||
| Senate | 40 | 4 | 10.0% | 3 | 7.5% | 0 | - | 7 | 8.8% | |||||||||||||||
| Total | 180 | 27 | 15.8% | 17 | 10.6% | 0 | N/A | 44 | 13.3% | |||||||||||||||
The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2021.
Major party competition
There were220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, in two states. Of that total,16 (7%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 204 (93%) were contested by both major parties. This was the smallest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.
Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.
In 2021:
| Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Uncontested | Contested | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Only Democrats | Only Republicans | Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||||||||||||||||
| House | 180 | 07 | 3.9% | 07 | 3.9% | 14 | 7.8% | 166 | 92.2% | |||||||||||||||
| Senate | 40 | 02 | 5.0% | 00 | 0.0% | 02 | 5.0% | 38 | 95.0% | |||||||||||||||
| Total | 220 | 09 | 4.1% | 07 | 3.2% | 16 | 7.3% | 204 | 92.7% | |||||||||||||||
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2021.
See also
Footnotes
- ↑Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
