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2018 Alaska Senate elections
General	November 6, 2018
Primary	August 21, 2018

Republicans maintained their majority in the 2018 elections forAlaska State Senate, as, after the election, they controlled13 seats toDemocrats'seven.Ten of the 20 Senate seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held14 seats to Democrats'six.

TheRepublican Party would have gained atrifecta in Alaska in 2018 by holding its majority in thestate Senate, gaining a numerical majority in thestate House, and winning thegovernorship. Alaskaremained under divided government, however, because Republicans were not able to organize a majority in House. The majority was eventually organized by a bipartisan coalition, and the two parties split control of leadership positions and committee chairs. To read more about what happened in the state House,click here.

TheAlaska State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

Alaska state senators serve staggered,four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.

For more information about the Democratic primary,click here.
For more information about the Republican primary,click here.

Post-election analysis

See also:State legislative elections, 2018

The Republican Party maintained control of the Alaska State Senate and entered into a power-sharing agreement with the Democratic Party in the Alaska House of Representatives in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 10 out of 20 seats were up for election. The Republican majority was reduced from 14-6 to 13-7. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.

The Alaska House of Representatives was identified as abattleground chamber. All 40 seats were up for election. The Democratic and Republican parties entered into a power-sharing agreement. The Republicanmajority was reduced from 23-16 to 21-17. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the primary. Two incumbents were defeated in the general election; one Democrat and one independent.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

• Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

Want more information?

• Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
• 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
• 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
• 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities

Candidates

See also:Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

Alaska State Senate General Election 2018
Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name. = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office	Democratic	Republican	Other
District A	Scott Kawasaki	Pete Kelly (i)
District C		Click Bishop (i)
District E	Susan Kay	Mike Shower (i)
District G	Oliver Schiess	Lora Reinbold
District I	Elvi Gray-Jackson	Jimmy Crawford
District K	Sam Cason	Mia Costello (i)
District M	Janice Park	Chris Birch
District O		Peter Micciche (i)
District Q	Jesse Kiehl		Don Etheridge (Independent)
District S	Lyman Hoffman (i)

Write-in candidates

• Ron Gillham (R), District O

Primary candidates

The candidate list below is based on a candidate filing list provided by the Alaska Division of Elections. The filing deadline for the August primary was on June 1, 2018.^[1]

Alaska State Senate Primary Election 2018
Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name. = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office	Democratic, Libertarian, and Independence	Republican	Other
District A	Scott Kawasaki	Pete Kelly (i)
District C		Click Bishop (i)
District E	Susan Kay	Mike Shower (i) Randall Kowalke Did not make the ballot: George Rauscher
District G	Oliver Schiess	Lora Reinbold Dan Saddler
District I	Elvi Gray-Jackson	Jimmy Crawford
District K	Sam Cason	Mia Costello (i)
District M	Janice Park	Chris Birch Bekah Halat
District O		Peter Micciche (i) Ron Gillham
District Q	Jesse Kiehl
District S	Lyman Hoffman (i)

Margins of victory

See also:Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

Amargin of victory (MOV) analysis for the2018 Alaska State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

• Elections won
• Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
• Elections won without opposition
• Average margin of victory^[2]

Alaska State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party	Elections won	Elections won by less than 10%	Unopposed elections	Average margin of victory[2]
Democratic	4	1	1	15.4%
Republican	6	0	2	26.4%
Other	0	0	0	N/A
Total	10	1	3	20.9%

The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

Alaska State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
District	Winning Party	Losing Party	Margin of Victory
Alaska State Senate District A	Democratic	Republican	2.0%
Alaska State Senate District K	Republican	Democratic	14.4%
Alaska State Senate District M	Republican	Democratic	17.3%
Alaska State Senate District I	Democratic	Republican	20.2%
Alaska State Senate District Q	Democratic	Independent	24.1%
Alaska State Senate District G	Republican	Democratic	25.4%
Alaska State Senate District E	Republican	Democratic	48.7%
Alaska State Senate District C	Republican	None	Unopposed
Alaska State Senate District S	Democratic	None	Unopposed
Alaska State Senate District O	Republican	None	Unopposed

Seats flipped

See also:State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018

The below map displays each seat in theAlaska State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.

State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Alaska State Senate
District	Incumbent	2018 winner	Direction of flip
Alaska State Senate District A	Pete Kelly	Scott Kawasaki	R to D

Incumbents retiring

Four incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.^[3] Those incumbents were:

Name	Party	Current Office
Anna MacKinnon	Republican	Senate District G
Berta Gardner	Democratic	Senate District I
Kevin Meyer	Republican	Senate District M
Dennis Egan	Democratic	Senate District Q

Process to become a candidate

See also:Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Alaska

See statutes:Title 15.25 of the Alaska Election Law

A person who seeks to become a candidate for office in a primary election must file a declaration of candidacy. This declaration must be made under oath before an authorized officer and must be filed with the Alaska Division of Elections. The form must be delivered in person or by mail at or before 5:00 p.m. on June 1 of the year in which the general election is taking place.^[4][5]

At the time of filing a declaration of candidacy, a candidate must pay a nonrefundable filing fee to the Alaska Division of Elections. For the offices ofgovernor,lieutenant governor,United States Senator, andUnited States Representative, the filing fee is $100. The filing fee for state legislative candidates is $30. Candidates must also submit a financial disclosure form (for further information on campaign finance requirements, seethis article).^[6][7]

Write-in candidates

A write-in candidate must file a declaration of intent with the Alaska Division of Elections. The form must be filed no later than five days prior to the general election. A write-in candidate must also file a financial disclosure statement alongside the declaration of intent. If a write-in candidate is running for governor, the candidate must file a joint declaration of intent with a candidate for lieutenant governor.^[8][8][9]

Qualifications

See also:State legislature candidate requirements by state

Article II, Section 2 of theAlaska Constitution states: A member of the legislature shall be a qualified voter who has been a resident of Alaska for at least three years and of the district from which elected for at least one year, immediately preceding his filing for office. A senator shall be at least twenty-five years of age.

Salaries and per diem

See also:Comparison of state legislative salaries

When sworn in

See also:When state legislators assume office after a general election

Alaska legislators assume office on the third Tuesday of January following their election.^[11][12]

Alaska political history

See also:Partisan composition of state senates andState government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, Republicans increased their majority in the Alaska State Senate from 14-6 to 13-7.

2016

In the 2016 elections, Republicans maintained their 14-6 majority in the chamber.

Trifectas

Astate government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Alaska came under divided government in 2014 when Alaska electedindependentBill Walker as governor. From 1992 to 2017, Alaska was under trifecta control for six years, with Republicans controlling the state from 2003 to 2006 and from 2013 to 2014.

Wave election analysis

See also:Wave elections (1918-2016)

The termwave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makessignificant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from PresidentWoodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 toDonald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016.We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition tostate legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose494 seats for 2018 to qualify as awave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016.Click here to read the full report.

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Click here to read the full study »

Historical context

See also:Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia'scompetitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Redistricting in Alaska

See also:Redistricting in Alaska

Because state senators in Alaska serve four-year terms, winning candidates in the 2018 election served through 2022 but had no role inAlaska's redistricting process—the drawing of boundary lines for congressional and state legislative districts—after the 2020 Census. Alaska is one of six states that use an independent commission to draw state legislative district lines.

Because Alaska has only one congressional district, congressional redistricting is not necessary. A non-politician commission draws state legislative district lines. In place since 1998, Alaska's redistricting commission comprises five members. Two commissioners are appointed by thegovernor, one by thestate Senate majority leader, one by thestate House majority leader, and one by the chief justice of theAlaska Supreme Court. State law mandates that commissioners "be chosen without regard to party affiliation." One commissioner must be selected from each of the state's judicial districts.^[16]

TheAlaska Constitution requires that state legislative districts be contiguous and compact. Furthermore, every state legislative district must contain a "relatively integrated socio-economic area." Each state legislative district is served by one state senator and two state representatives.^[16]

Pivot Counties

See also:Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted forBarack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and forDonald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Alaska are Pivot Counties.

In the 2016presidential election,Donald Trump (R) won Alaska with 51.3 percent of the vote.Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.6 percent.Libertarian candidateGary Johnson received 5.9 percent, which was his third-best showing in a state in 2016.^[17] From when it gained statehood in 1959 to 2017, Alaska voted Republican in 14 out of 15 presidential elections. The only time it voted Democratic was in 1964 when President Lyndon Johnson (D) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater (R) with 61.1 percent of the national vote.^[18] From 1960 to 2016, Alaska voted for the winning presidential candidate in 60 percent of presidential elections.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Alaska. Click[show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled byDaily Kos.^[19][20]

See also

• Alaska State Senate
• Alaska State Legislature
• State legislative elections, 2018
• Alaska state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
• Alaska state legislative Republican primaries, 2018

External links

Suggest a link

• Alaska State Legislature

Footnotes

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