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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 2, 2012

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2012 State Legislative Elections

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RedistrictingPartisan ControlPrimariesImpact of Term LimitsCompetitiveness Analysis
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Primary electionsStatewide elections, 2012State legislative special elections, 2012State Senate electionsState House electionsState executive official elections, 20122012 ballot measures

6,013 seats of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats were up for election in the November 6, 2012 state legislative elections.

This article is an overview of our analysis of thedegree of competitiveness in 2012's state legislative elections. The analysis utilizedthis 3-factor "Competitiveness Index". This report is organized into four sections. They are:

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2012 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices.Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

See also:Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections
State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2012
20102012AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index34.635.234.9
Open seats18.7%21.9%20.3%
Inc. in contested primaries20.0%23.3%21.7%
Seats with major party competition65.0%60.4%62.7%

Open seats

See also:Open seats in state legislative elections, 2012

There were6,013 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2012, in 44 states. Of that total, there were1,314 open seats, guaranteeing at least22% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was up from 19% compared to the2010 elections.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2012:

  • There were526 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were705 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were83 other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing. It also includes seats where Ballotpedia could not determine partisan control due toredistricting.
  • The total number of open seats—1,314—was up from 1,143 in 2010, a 15% increase.


  • Open state legislative seats, 2012
    ChamberSeats
    DemocraticRepublicanOtherTotal
    #%
    House4,714409531831,02321.7%
    Senate1,299117174029122.4%
    Total6,013526705831,31421.9%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats compared to 2010. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholder could not be determined due to redistricting, resulting in a larger value in 2012.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also:State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2012

    There were6,013 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2012, in 44 states. Overall, 4,790 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total,1,117 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing23% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This represented an increase from 2010 when 20% of incumbents faced contested primaries.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2012:

  • There were450 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 21% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 19% decrease from 2010.
  • There were667 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 26% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 53% increase from 2010.
  • There wereno minor party or independent incumbents in contested primaries.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—1,117—represented a 12% increase from 2010.


  • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2012
    ChamberSeats
    DemocraticRepublicanTotal[1]
    FiledCont.%FiledCont.%FiledCont.%
    House4,7141,68735120.8%2,07052725.5%3,76787823.3%
    Senate1,2994839920.5%53814026.0%1,02323923.4%
    Total6,0132,17045020.7%2,60866725.6%4,7901,11723.3%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries between 2010 and 2012.

    All contested primaries

    See also:Contested state legislative primaries, 2012

    This section shows figures onall contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were5,633 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating11,017 possible primaries. Of that total, there were2,037 contested primaries, meaning18.5% of all primaries were contested, roughly the same as in2010, when 18.3% of primaries were contested.

    In 2012:

  • There were823 contested Democratic primaries, representing 15% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 6% decrease from 2010.
  • There were1,116 contested Republican primaries, representing 21% of all possible Republican primaries and a 3% increase from 2010.
  • There were98 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 39% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 98% increase/decrease from 2010, caused, in part, by California's transition from partisan primaries to a top-two primary system.
  • The total number of contested primaries—2,037—was roughly the same as in 2010, representing a 1% increase from the 2,017 held that year.


  • Contested state legislative primaries, 2012
    ChamberDistricts
    DemocraticRepublicanTop-two/fourTotal
    #%#%#%#%
    House4,35164715.5%84120.2%7542.1%1,56318.3%
    Senate1,28217614.5%27522.7%2332.4%47419.0%
    Total5,63382315.3%1,11620.7%9839.4%2,03718.5%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries between 2010 and 2012.

    Major party competition

    See also:Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2012

    There were6,013 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2012, in 44 states. Of that total,2,384 (40%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 3,629 (60%) were contested by both major parties. This was the largest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2012:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win 1,113 seats (19%) that lacked Republican competition, a 11% increase from 2010.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win 1,267 seats (21%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 12% increase from 2010.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 4,742 seats (79%) and Republicans ran for 4,896 (81%).
  • There werefour seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—2,384—was more than in 2010 (2,142), representing a 11% increase.

  • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2012
    ChamberSeats
    UncontestedContested
    Only DemocratsOnly RepublicansTotal
    #%#%#%#%
    House4,71487718.6%99421.1%1,87539.8%2,83960.2%
    Senate1,29923618.2%27321.0%50939.2%79060.8%
    Total6,0131,11318.5%1,26721.1%2,38439.6%3,62960.4%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2010 to 2012.

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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