Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing

@article{Quaas2022RobustEF,  title={Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing},  author={Johannes Quaas and Hailing Jia and Christopher J. Smith and Anna Lea Albright and Wenche Aas and Nicolas Bellouin and Olivi{\'e}r Boucher and Marie Doutriaux-Boucher and Piers M. Forster and Daniel Peter Grosvenor and Stuart Jenkins and Zbigniew Klimont and Norman G. Loeb and Xiaoyan Ma and Vaishali Naik and Fabien Paulot and Philip Stier and Martin Wild and Gunnar Myhre and Michael Schulz},  journal={Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},  year={2022},  url={https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:252446168}}
Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here, we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow us to robustly conclude that the anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) – both aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

90 Citations

Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover

With global warming currently standing at approximately +1.2 °C since pre-industrial times, climate change is a pressing global issue. Marine cloud brightening is one proposed method to tackle

The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing

Abstract. Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are two of the most central, but uncertain, quantities in climate science that are crucial for assessing historical climate as well as future climate

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Abstract. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the

Aggressive Aerosol Mitigation Policies Reduce Chances of Keeping Global Warming to Below 2C

Aerosol increases over the 20th century delayed the rate at which Earth warmed as a result of increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Aggressive aerosol mitigation policies arrested aerosol radiative

Anthropogenic Aerosols Have Significantly Weakened the Regional Summertime Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere During the Satellite Era

Reanalysis data show a significant weakening of summertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in the satellite era with implications for surface weather extremes. Recent work

Historical Changes and Reasons for Model Differences in Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in CMIP6

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) allows estimates of effective radiative forcing (ERF) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6). We analyze the RFMIP

Equilibrium climate sensitivity increases with aerosol concentration due to changes in precipitation efficiency

Abstract. How Earth's climate reacts to anthropogenic forcing is one of the mostburning questions faced by today's scientific community. A leading source ofuncertainty in estimating this

Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosol particles partially mask global warming driven by greenhouse gases, both directly by reflecting sunlight back to space and indirectly by increasing cloud reflectivity.

Aerosol Background Concentrations Influence Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions as Much as the Choice of Aerosol‐Cloud Parameterization

We use an independent observational estimate of aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI) during the 2014 Holuhraun volcanic eruption in Iceland to evaluate four ACI parameterizations in a regional model. All

Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance

The Earth’s energy imbalance is the net radiative flux at the top-of-atmosphere. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed positive imbalance trend in the previous two decades is
...

146 References

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

A new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era is provided based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations, to constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions.

Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990-2015

Abstract. Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution

Aerosol radiative effects with MACv2

Abstract. Monthly global maps for aerosol properties of the Max Planck Aerosol Climatology version 2 (MACv2) areapplied in an offline radiative transfer model to determine aerosolradiative effects.

Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements

Satellite-based measurements of aerosols and surface wind speed are used to estimate the clear-sky direct radiative forcing for 2002, suggesting future atmospheric warming greater than is presently predicted, as aerosol emissions continue to decline.

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs

Pollution trends over Europe constrain global aerosol forcing as simulated by climate models

An increasing trend in surface solar radiation (solar brightening) has been observed over Europe since the 1990s, linked to economic developments and air pollution regulations and their direct as

Significance of the organic aerosol driven climate feedback in the boreal area

Direct observations on this feedback mechanism utilizing collocated long term aerosol chemical composition measurements and remote sensing observations on aerosol and cloud properties provide direct observational evidence on the significance of this negative climate feedback mechanism.

Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions

Investigations of an Icelandic volcanic eruption confirm that sulfate aerosols caused a discernible yet transient brightening effect, as predicted, but their effect on the liquid water path was unexpectedly negligible.

Anthropogenic and natural contributions to regional trends in aerosol optical depth, 1980–2006

[1] Understanding the roles of human and natural sources in contributing to aerosol concentrations around the world is an important step toward developing efficient and effective mitigation measures
...

Related Papers

Showing 1 through 3 of 0 Related Papers