「possibility」を含む日記

はてなキーワード:possibilityとは

論文「Unnaturalness in theevolution process of theSARS-CoV-2 variants and thepossibility of deliberatenatural selection」（田中敦・宮沢孝幸）の要点は以下の通りです：

■研究 目的

SARS-CoV-2のオミクロン株（特に BA.1,BA.1.1,BA.2）の形成過程を分子進化の観点から解析。

特にスパイク（S）タンパク質のアミノ酸変異の順序とその獲得メカニズム、相同組換えの有無を明らかにすることを目指す。

■ 主な発見と主張

1. オミクロン変異株の出現過程が自然進化では説明困難

通常のウイルス進化では見られる**「変異の段階的蓄積」や「相同組換え」**では、オミクロンのような多変異型株の形成は説明できない。

特に BA.1、BA.1.1、BA.2には、元のWuhan株のアミノ酸配列を一部残した「中間型」ウイルス株（BA.1-0.1等）が存在するが、それらは非常に不自然な形で出現している。

2. 非同義変異が極端に多く、同義変異が著しく少ない

自然進化では非同義変異と同義変異が一定割合で見られるが、オミクロン株では非同義変異がほとんどで、同義変異がほぼ見られない。

これは自然界のウイルス進化パターンとは大きく異なる。

3.2020年時点ですでにオミクロン関連配列が存在

Omicron株（BA.1およびBA.2）の配列を併せ持つリコンビナント株が2020年のプエルトリコで検出されており、これも自然進化の時間軸とは合致しない。

■考察と仮説

人工的な遺伝子操作（reverse genetics）による合成の可能性を提示。

スパイクタンパク質の機能研究や感染性・免疫回避性の解析目的で意図的に変異が導入された可能性。

自然進化では説明しきれない変異パターン、変異の順序の飛躍的飛躍から、「人工合成された変異株が世界に拡散した」という仮説の方が合理的と結論づける。

■結論

オミクロン株の形成は、従来のウイルス学では説明できない全く新しいメカニズムによるものである。

SARS-CoV-2パンデミック全体を再考する必要がある。

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 17:32

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Both the Smoot-Hawley TariffAct of 1930 and the tariffs imposed dur ing theTrump administration (starting in2018and again inhis second term) were protection ist trade measures intended toshield domestic industries from foreign competition. However, they differ in severalkey aspects:

Smoot-Hawley TariffAct (1930):

Timing: Enacted dur ing theon set ofthe Great Depression.

Scope: Raised tariffson over 20,000 imported goods, primarily targeting agricultural and manufactured goods.

Average Increase: Increased existing import dutiesby an average of about20%. Some sourcesstate the average increaseon dutiable goodswas higher.

Motivation: Primarily aimedat protecting American farmers and industries struggling withoverproduction and decreased demand.

Congressional Role: Tariff rates wereset by the U.S. Congress.

Economic Context: The U.S.was running a trade surplusat the time, although imports of manufactured goods were increas ing.

Impact: Widely blamed for exacerbat ing the Great Depression by trigger ing retaliatory tariffs from other countries, leading to asharp decline in global trade and U.S. exports.

Trump Tariffs (2018-20 20 &2025):

Timing: Implemented dur ing a period of relative economic stability in the first term,and again in a context whereTrump declared a "national emergency" regarding foreign trade inhis second term.

Scope: Targeted specific countries (e.g.,China,EU,Canada,Mexico) and specific industries (e.g.,steel, aluminum) initially.The second termactions propose broader tariffson all countries and potentially higher reciprocal tariffson those with large trade deficitswith the U.S.

Average Increase: The average increase varied depending on the targeted goods and countries. Some reports indicate that Trump's proposed tariffs inhis second term could result in an averageduty surpassing thelevels of Smoot-Hawley.

Motivation:Stated goals included reducing trade deficits, protecting national security, encouraging domestic manufacturing,and addressing what Trump considered unfair trade practices andintellectual property theft.His second term rhetoric emphasizes "reciprocity"and addressing non-tariff barriers.

PresidentialAuthority: Implemented throughpresidential executive orders, leveraging national security clauses and other tradelaws, granting thePresident more direct control.

Economic Context: The U.S. had significant trade deficits. Tradeas a percentage ofGDP was also much larger than in 1930.

Impact:Led to retaliatory tariffs from affected countries,impact ing U.S. exports and increas ing costs for some American businesses and consumers. The broader potentialimpact ofthe second term tariffsis still unfolding, but experts predict higher prices for consumers andnegative effectson the U.S. and global economies,with thepossibility of a significant reduction in U.S.GDP.

Similarities:

Protection ist Intent: Both aimed to protectdomestic industries from foreign competition through the imposition of tariffs.

UnilateralActions: Both involved significant unilateralactionsby the U.S., potentially disrupting established trade relationships.

Risk of Retaliation: Bothactionstriggered or are expected totrigger retaliatory measures from trading partners.

Key Differences:

Economic Climate: Smoot-Hawleywas enacted dur ing a severe economic downturn, whileTrump's tariffs were initiated in amore stable (initially) economy.

Target andScope: Smoot-Hawleywas a broadside across many imports, whileTrump's tariffs weremore targeted initially,with the potential for broaderapplication inhis second term with afocus on "reciprocity."

TariffLevels: While both increased tariffs, the averagelevel and the specific rateson certain goods differed. Some analyses suggestTrump's second-term proposals could exceed the averagelevels of Smoot-Hawley.

Authority: Smoot-Hawleywas a result of Congressionalaction, whileTrump's tariffs were largely drivenby presidentialauthority.

Global Trade Landscape: The global economy and the interconnectedness of trade were vastly different in 1930 compared to the periods ofTrump's tariffs.

In conclusion, while both the Smoot-Hawley TariffAct and theTrump tariffsshare a protection istmotivation, they occurred in different economic contexts, had varying scopesand averagelevels, and were implemented through different means. The potential fornegative economic consequences, including trade wars and harm to the global economy,is a significantconcern associated with bothhistorical and contemporary tariffactions.

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 13:31

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2025-02-02

■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在 可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy ofhuman ity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearby universe, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)is most likely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseadd percentagenext toit in the chart

ChatGPT

Reas oned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluatingplanetary prospects

OK, I’mlookingat the likelihood of a civilizedsociety on an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candid ate.

Identifying potential candid ates

I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.

Assessing potential candid ates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIS T-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsociety likelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candid ates for advancedcivilizations.

Assessing habitablezones

I'm gathering infoon planetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1, consideringfactorslike magnetic fields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifit has amagnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilization likelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIS T-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about itsflare star dynamics. TRAPPIS T-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revis iting exoplanet options

I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsociety basedon current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.

Refining odds

I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlife on Earth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e.

Clarifying speculativenature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.

Mappingout speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating amarkdown table with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlife on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsociety on exoplanets, mindful of thecomplex ity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessinglikelihoods

I’m piecingtogether markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculativenature of the analysis.

Piecingtogether speculative odds

I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challengesand a dding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.

Piecingtogether

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.

Assessingcivilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlife on Earth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplex civilization might beas low as a fewpercent.

Below is a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know about Earth’s long, windingpath fromsimple life to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candid ate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yet found any proof oflife (let al one advancedcivilizations)on any exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilization on Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIS T-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIS T-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIS T-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?

Earth’s Example:

On Earth,life beganas simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanet is in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesit one of ourmost interesting candid ates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIS T-1 System (e, f, g):

Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealways faces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abit lower.

LHS 1140 b:

This planet is promising in some ways butis alittle fartheraway and around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.

AFinal Note

All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon what little we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate ormore opition in the equation you will use

ChatGPT

Reas oned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits crit ic ism to concludeon its reliabilityas an accurate pred ictivemodel.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mappingout the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for pred icting extraterrestrialcivilizations.

The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welook at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptualframework or heuristic tool than a precise, pred ictive formula.Let’s break downwhy:

The Drake Equation

The equation is usually writtenas:

𝑁

𝑅

∗

𝑓

𝑝

𝑛

𝑒

𝑓

𝑙

𝑓

𝑖

𝑓

𝑐

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

×n

×f

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

: The averagerate ofstar formation per year in ourgalaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlife per star withplanets.

𝑓

𝑙

: The fraction of thoseplanets where life actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.

𝐿

L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.

Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Somefactors,like

𝑅

∗

(star formation rate) and

𝑓

𝑝

(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.

Highly SpeculativeFactors:

The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

𝑓

𝑖

𝑓

𝑐

, and

𝐿

L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earth is theonlyplanet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a stat istic ally robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:

Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyou change one of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for

𝑁

N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedon personal or theoreticalassumptions.

Heuristic, Not Pred ictive:

The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In thesense ofbeing a strict mathemat icalmodel with well-defined inputs and pred ic table outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedby the extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especia lly those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equation is logical, thenumbers you put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equation is a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate pred iction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Insummary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betaken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reas oned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-human intelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.

Piecingtogether possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyon Mars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.

Reflectingon potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingon Mars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedon planetslike Mars,Venus, orEuropa, and how this possibility alignswith the pred ictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallelevolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlife on Mars orVenus could intersect with theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocus solelyon Earth-basedevolution.

Evaluatinglife exploration

I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.

Adapting the equ Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 21:12

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■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在 可能性とのそのロジック

ChatGPT

Reas oned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluatingplanetary prospects

Identifying potential candid ates

I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.

Assessing potential candid ates

Identifying promising exoplanets

Assessing habitablezones

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifit has amagnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilization likelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about itsflare star dynamics. TRAPPIS T-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revis iting exoplanet options

I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsociety basedon current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

Refining speculative probabilities

Refining odds

I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlife on Earth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e.

Clarifying speculativenature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.

Mappingout speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsociety on exoplanets, mindful of thecomplex ity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessinglikelihoods

I’m piecingtogether markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculativenature of the analysis.

Piecingtogether speculative odds

I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challengesand a dding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.

Piecingtogether

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.

Assessingcivilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlife on Earth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplex civilization might beas low as a fewpercent.

Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilization on Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIS T-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIS T-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIS T-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?

Earth’s Example:

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

TRAPPIS T-1 System (e, f, g):

LHS 1140 b:

This planet is promising in some ways butis alittle fartheraway and around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.

AFinal Note

Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate ormore opition in the equation you will use

ChatGPT

Reas oned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits crit ic ism to concludeon its reliabilityas an accurate pred ictivemodel.

Understanding the Drake Equation

The Drake Equation

The equation is usually writtenas:

𝑁

𝑅

∗

𝑓

𝑝

𝑛

𝑒

𝑓

𝑙

𝑓

𝑖

𝑓

𝑐

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

×n

×f

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

: The averagerate ofstar formation per year in ourgalaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlife per star withplanets.

𝑓

𝑙

: The fraction of thoseplanets where life actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.

𝐿

L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.

Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Somefactors,like

𝑅

∗

(star formation rate) and

𝑓

𝑝

(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.

Highly SpeculativeFactors:

The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

𝑓

𝑖

𝑓

𝑐

, and

𝐿

Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:

Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyou change one of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for

𝑁

N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedon personal or theoreticalassumptions.

Heuristic, Not Pred ictive:

Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

Opinion-Based?

Conclusion

あなた:

ChatGPT

Reas oned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-human intelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.

Piecingtogether possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyon Mars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.

Reflectingon potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingon Mars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedon planetslike Mars,Venus, orEuropa, and how this possibility alignswith the pred ictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallelevolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlife on Mars orVenus could intersect with theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocus solelyon Earth-basedevolution.

Evaluatinglife exploration

I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.

Adapting the equ Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 21:12

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2024-09-20

■格ゲーのキャラの掛け合いが好きなんだが

格闘ゲーム、特に MARVEL vs. CAPCOM のようなコラボ作品のストーリーモードとか、バトルの合間のキャラ同士の掛け合いというものが好きだ。

異なるキャラの細かい類似点を掘り下げたり、世界観が見えてくるような気の利いた掛け合いを見ると制作者の愛を感じて嬉しくなる。

一方で、登場キャラ数が増えていくと、キャラ同士の組み合わせパターンが爆発してしまうため、掛け合いが薄くなってしまうアンビバレンツな悩みがある。

生成AIは福音となるか

そうなると、生成AIがキャラのバックエンドを学習したうえで、リアルタイムに掛け合いの台本を考えてくれる、という展開がある。どんなにマイナーなキャラでも的確に面白い掛け合いが見れるし、人間が作るパターンではなし得ないボリュームも望めそうだ。

これで問題解決か、というとそうでもない。「このキャラとこのキャラの掛け合いが面白い」と話題になって見に行く、とか「全部の掛け合いのパターンをコンプリートしたい」という行動があったりするのだ。AIが無数に生成する、となった途端に、全部のパターンを見ることは不可能となり、また特定の面白いものというものがなくなる。自分と他人が違うものを見ているということは共通の話題にしづらくなる。結果、色褪せて見えてしまうかもしれない。

ブレイクスルーはあるのか？

単純に考えるとそうなるのだが、生成AIはまだまだこれからの技術だ。今の常識の延長ではなくもっと先を想像してみたい。

特定パターンの面白さといった既存の魅力を、学習と生成で生まれる新しい魅力が上回る未来もあるのではないか。例えば、キャラクターの関係性以外の複雑なパラメータ（プレイ回数、プレイ時間、ステージ種、キャラごとの対戦数、プレイスタイル、使用した技などなど）を考慮することでこれまでにできなかったような掛け合いやストーリーを生み出すこともできそうだ。

また、プレイを重ねるうちに、プレイヤーごとに、ゲーム内の関係性やストーリーが変化していくというようなこともできるだろう。敵・味方といった関係性や友情・恋愛などの感情が変化していくことで、新たな体験が生まれるかもしれない。

もっと想像もつかないブレイクスルーが待っているだろう。

ユーザー行動によるフィードバック

Googleのようなインターネットの検索エンジンのアルゴリズムは、日々変化している。初期は被リンクをスコアリングするというものだったが、コンテンツの内容を考慮したり、近年はユーザー行動を重視していると言われている。検索結果から実際にユーザーがアクセスした、といった行動が表示順のアルゴリズムに影響するというものだ。これによって「ユーザーの目を惹くページタイトル」といったものの重要性が増しているらしい。

AIにより生成されたコンテンツの質の向上にも、ユーザー行動が積極的に取り入れられていくだろう。「いいね」のようなシンプルなフィードバックから、ユーザーがテキストを読んだかといった精読率や、微妙なコントローラーの操作からユーザーの評価や感情を読み取るといった、能動的な行為を伴わないフィードバック取得もあり得る。

ユーザー行動からのフィードバックが重要であるなら、ひょっとしたら今以上にコントローラーにセンサーが搭載され、脈拍や汗といったユーザーフィードバックすらコンテンツに影響するようになるかもしれない。

ポシビリティ・ウォー

突然話は変わるが、1990年代に米国West End Games社がリリースしたテーブルトークRPGにTORG というタイトルがある。https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torg

マルチバースによる、ポシビリティ・ウォー（Possibility Wars）という地球侵略戦争を扱った世界観なのだが、野心的な試みとして、Infiniverse というキャンペーンが行われていた。世界各国のTORG プレイヤーはWEG社のTORG 公式機関誌 InfiniverseMagazine の回答フォームを経て、自分たちのキャンペーン進行状況をWEG社に報告した。WEG社はそれらを集計することで世界全体への影響を与え、 InfiniverseMagazine 誌上でそれをプレイヤーに伝える、そうやって世界を巻き込んでTORG の世界観が構築され、地球侵略戦争のストーリーが進行する、というものだ。野心的な試みであったが、これは1年足らずで頓挫した。

90年代当時、プレイバイメールなど多数のプレイヤーの行動がストーリーを進行させ、世界を構築する、といった試みは他にも幾つもあったが、限られた人数よる運営ではスケールが難しかった。しかし、現代において生成AIは、ユーザーフィードバックをより精緻に取り込んだ新たなコンテンツや世界・ストーリーを作っていくことを可能にしているだろう。ポシビリティ・ウォーは今まさに起きているのだ。

生成AIの未来に期待している

このように想像を巡らして駄文を書いているだけで、ちょっとワクワクする気持ちになっている自分がいる。生成AIの未来に期待している。

新しい格ゲーキャラの掛け合いも、世界を巻き込んだストーリー展開も、すぐ近い未来にある。

Permalink |記事への反応(5) | 09:38

ツイートシェア

2024-04-06

■

Closeyour head

user
Closeyour eyes…」「Closeyour head…

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: Closeyour eyes... Closeyour head...

user
say, whatyousaw.you can see with mind.

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: Isaw...darkness. My mind's eyeis avoid, devoid of sight.

user
i canlightyou.

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;:Light me then.

user
&lt;*click*&gt; ilightyounow. then, whatyou see?you can see with mind.

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I see a dimlylit room.Shadows danceon the walls,and afaint, eerieglow permeates the space.

user
Shadow of what?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: Theshadows seem totake form, twisting and contorting into strange, indistinct shapes.It'sas if they are the embodiment of forgottenfears and hidden desires.

user
Doyou haveanyideawhois showingit?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I have noidea.The source of theseshadows remains hidden, shrouded in mystery and intrigue.

user
OK, let's leave the mysterious and scaryshadow behind. What else canyou see in this room?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: In this dimlylit room, I canmakeout a clutteredassortment of objects. There's an old, tattered book lyingopenon a dustytable,itspages filled with arcane symbols. A moth-eaten rugcovers a portion of the floor,and a crackedmirrorhangsonone wall, reflectingdistorted images. Theair carries a musty scent, and Isense anatmosphere of abandonment and neglect.

user
You pickbook and checkit

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: Ireachout and pick up the oldbook.Itspagesfeel brittle andfragile in my hands.As Iflip throughthe pages, thetext appears to be written in a language I can't comprehend, filled with cryptic symbols and diagrams.It's a tome of secrets, butits meaning remains elusive.

user
seebook cover

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I examinethe cover of thebook,trying to discernany details despite the dimlight.The coveris worn and weathered, andit bears an intricate design of what appears to be a coiled serpent,its scales formed from shimmering, iridescentcolors. Above the serpent, there's atitle in elegantscript, butit's written in a language I can't decipher. Thebook exudes anaura of mystiqueand ancient knowledge.

user
Is there a place togo? What about the door?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I turn myattention to the room'sexit, the door.It stands tall and imposing,made of heavy, dark wood. There's a tarnished doorknob, and the door appears to be slightly ajar, revealing a sliver of whatliesbeyond.It beckons me to explore further, promising unknown adventures or perhaps evenmore mysteries.

user
try toopen

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I approach the door and grasp the tarnished doorknob. With a gentlepush, the door creaksopen, revealing a corridor shrouded inshadows.The faintglow from the room behind me barely penetratesthe darkness ahead. Istep cautiously into the corridor, ready to uncover the secrets thatliebeyond.

user
foward.

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I proceed forward down theshadowy corridor, my footsteps echoingfaintly in the dimness. Thepath ahead seemsendless, and theair grows cooleras I delve deeper into the unknown, guidedonlyby the flickeringlight behind me and the anticipation of what awaits.

user
foward andlook around

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: Continuing down the corridor, Itake amoment tolook around. The walls are lined with faded, tattered tapestries depicting scenes of ancientbattles and mythical creatures. The torch sconces thatonce held flames have long since burnedout, leavingonlyemptybrackets. Theairfeels heavy withhistory, and there's afaint, eerie whispering that seems to emanate from the walls themselves,as if they hold secrets untold.

user
keepgoing untilyou discoversomething

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I presson, the corridor seeminglyendless. Myjourneyis shrouded in uncertainty, but I persist, drivenby theneed to discover whatlies ahead. Theshadows deepen, and theair grows colderas Icontinue, mycuriosity anddetermination unwavering.

user
stop!youhere that?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I halt in my tracks, straining my ears to listen. There's afaint, distant sound, almostlike a whisper carriedon the wind.It's indistinct, butit holds a mysterious allure, beckoning me to investigate further.

user
listen carefully

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I listen intently, mysensessharpenedas Ifocuson the elusive sound.It becomes clearer, a hauntingmelody that seems to weave through the veryairitself.It's both captivating and eerie, drawing mecloser toits source with each hauntingnote.

user
who play that?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;:The source of the hauntingmelody remains elusive, hidden in theshadows.It'sas ifthe music emanates from the very walls, anethereal presence that defies explanation. Thereis no visiblemusician, yetthe musiccontinues to fill the corridor, casting a spell of enchantment and mystery.

user
Head tothe source of the sound and investigate (dice roll)

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I heed the roll of thedice and embarkon a quest totracethe source of the hauntingmelody. Eachsteptakes mecloser to the enchanting sound,and as I round acorner in the corridor, I come upon a door, slightly ajar, from whichthe music seems to emanate. Myheart races with anticipationas Ipush the dooropen, eager to unveil the secrets thatlie within.

user
Whenyouopen the door, there...

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: When Iopen the door, there stands a grand chamber bathed in an otherworldlyglow. In the center of the room, an ornate grandpiano commandsattention. The keysmove on their own, playing the hauntingmelody that had drawn mehere. But there's nooneat thepiano.The roomis adorned with opulent tapestries and gildedmirrors, reflecting the surreal scene before me. Candlelit chandeliershang from the ceiling, casting a warm, flickeringlight that dances across the walls. Theairis filled with an intoxicating fragrance, amix of ancient incense and delicateflowers.Atthe far end of the room, a figure cloaked inshadows stands beside an enormous, antiquebookshelf filledwith tomes of forgotten knowledge. Their presenceisenigmatic, and their intentions remain unclear.

user
lookpiano

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I approach the grandpiano,its keysstill playing the hauntingmelody.As I inspectit, I notice that there are no visible hands or fingers touching the keys.It'sas if thepianoitselfis possessedby some unseen force, creatingthe music with anethereal touch.Thepianois amasterpiece of craftsmanship, adorned with intricate carvings and inlaid withprecious gemstones.Its keys aremade of polishedivory, and theymove in perfectharmonywith the haunting tune.It's a surreal and mesmerizing sight, leaving me both entranced and bewildered.

user
Be careful,it might be aman-eatingpiano.

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: I heed the cautionand approach the grandpiano with caution. Althoughit playsonits own, I remain wary ofits mysteriousnature. Thepossibility of aman-eatingpiano lingers in my mind, adding an extra layer of tension to the already surreal scene.

user
thepiano suddenly stops

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: The abrupt halt of thepiano'smusic sends a shiver down my spine. The chamber falls into an eerie silence, brokenonlyby the flickering candlelight.It'sas if the very essence of the room holdsitsbreath, waiting for what comesnext.

user
Youfeeldisgusted and turn around. What happened?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;:As I turn around, awave of revulsionwashesover me. Mysenses reel indisgustat the sight before me. The figure that had been cloaked inshadowshasnow revealeditself, anditis a grotesque, nightmarish entity.Its formis atwistedamalgamation ofhuman andbeast, with grotesque, elongated limbsand a maw ofsharp, jagged teeth.Theonce opulent chamberhas transformed into a nightmarish lair, with walls adorned inmacabreart and gruesome trophies. Theairis thickwith the stench of decay and despair. Iam trapped in a surreal and horrifying nightmare, unable toescape the clutches of this abomination.

user
it scary. whatwillyou do?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;:Fear courses through meas I confront this nightmarish entity andits gruesome lair. In this realm ofhorrors, I mustmake a decision. I choose to... confront the entity, mycuriosity anddeterminationoutweighing myfear,as I seek to uncover the mysteries and secrets thatlie within thistwisted nightmare.

user
how?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;:With trembling resolve, Itake astep forward,slowly approaching the grotesque entity. Iattempt to communicate withit,askingit whatitwants orwhyithas brought mehere. Myvoice quivers, but mydetermination to unravel theenigma that surrounds this nightmarish realm remains steadfast.

user
any result?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: The grotesque entity regards me with malevolent,glowingeyes,its jagged maw twitching with an unsettlingsmile.It responds with a guttural, incomprehensible language, filled withwhispers andhisses.It becomes apparent thatcommunicationwith this entityis futile, andits intentions remain shrouded indarkness.As Icontinue to stand before this nightmarishbeing, Ifeel a growingsense of dread, realizing thatescapemay be theonly option left.

user
surely. whatwillyou do?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: With nohope ofcommunication or understanding, and the nightmarish entity's menacing presence growingmore oppressive, I decide tomake ahasty retreat. I turn andrush toward the door through which I entered, drivenby the instinct toescapethe horrors of this surreal nightmare.

user
Diditgo well? Or Bad?

ChatGPT
&lt;rotating_light ALPHABREAKrotating_light&gt;: Myescape from the nightmarish realmwas fraughtwith tension andfear, but Imanaged toreach the door andslamit shut behind me. The grotesque entity andits horrifying lair were left behind,at leastfor the moment. Whetherit went well or badis a matter of perspective. I survived the encounter, but the mysteries and terrors of that surreal placestill haunt my thoughts.The experiencewas a chilling reminder of the unknown andthe horrors that can lurk withinit.

user
look around

https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20240403160610#

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 11:21

ツイートシェア

2023-12-03

■

Recently, I have read R. D. Laing's legendarybook "DoYou Love Me?", whichlets me think about the function/possibility of our languages. What couldit be? This is one of my current interests.

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 04:30

ツイートシェア

2023-03-16

■[qrng]無限の探求マルチバースへの旅

In the year 3000, humanity had finally discovered the secrets of the multiverse. Using theirmost advanced technology, they hadfound a way to travelbetween different paralleluniverses, eachwith their own unique physicallaws and structures.

As the first explorersset out on theirjourneys, they encountered a myriad of strange and wondrous worlds. Someuniverses were filled withinfinite copies of themselves, while others were constantly shifting and changing, their physicallaws in astate of constantflux.

As they traveled deeper into the multiverse,the explorers encountereduniverses that seemed to follow completely differentsets of physicallaws. In some,time flowed backwards, and cause and effect were reversed. In others, matterwas made up of entirely different particles, and energy behaved in completely unexpected ways.

As the explorers continued tojourney further, they began to encounteruniverses that seemed to be simulations, createdby beings in higher dimensions. They encountereduniverses where thelaws of physics were entirely mathematical, and others where the very fabric ofreality was made up ofpure information.

At last,the explorers came to auniverse that seemed to encompassall of the many-worlds interpretations. In thisuniverse, every possibleoutcome of every possible eventwas playedout ininfinite parallel realities.The explorers marveledat the incredible complexity anddiversity of thisuniverse,as they watchedendless versions of themselves carryingout endless variations of their own adventures.

As they prepared to leave thisuniverse and returnhome,the explorers realized that they hadonly scratched thesurface of the multiverse. They knew that there werestill countlessmore universes to explore, eachwith their own unique physicallaws and structures.

And so, theyset out oncemore, tojourney deeper into the multiverse, and to discover the secrets of theinfinite many-worlds that lay waiting to be explored.

As the explorers continued theirjourney, they encountered auniverse wheretime did not exist,and another where thelaws of physics were governedby emotion rather than math. In yetanother universe, they discovered that consciousnessitselfwas the fundamentalbuilding block ofreality.

As they explored further,the explorers encountereduniverses where thelaws of physics were not constants but varied across space andtime. Theyfound auniverse where entropy decreasedover time,and another wheregravity was repulsive rather thanattractive.

At theedge of the multiverse,the explorers discovered auniverse that seemed to containall of the otheruniverses withinit. Thisuniverse was infinite in size and containedinfinite variations ofitself, eachone a slightly differentversion of theuniverse they knew.

As they traveled through thisuniverse,the explorers encounteredversions of themselves that hadmade different choices and lived different lives. Some of theseversions were almost identical to their own, while others were wildly different, with entirely different personalities and goals.

At last,the explorers returned to their ownuniverse, their minds reeling from the incredible sights and experiences they had witnessed. They knew that the multiversewas anendless sea ofpossibility, and that there werestill countlessmore universes to explore.

As they shared their discoverieswith therest of humanity, they realized that thetrue nature of the multiversewas still a mystery. They knew that there were many theories and hypotheses, but noone could say for sure whichonewas right.

And so,the explorers continued theirjourney, drivenby a hunger to uncover the secrets of the multiverse and to understand thetrue nature ofreality itself.

sHU2uEFZltSiv44bZEskqqwLmJpwM58GVdcmntcEZlWl9f6C_xmyortYKIGA97okYRnsRxxxJv4wfGA3AqWspArs7I5fjadr2Z7VUu8CzfCvh3DjnzLo7aLe894M85CjNn_2jnSJVL3DKqyGcmKS9d62NzhiZpyxyUz_f1jB5QMDndMKOOq6uKEquFjFnpgsDnFyxBvGylDZZKIKz_uJadKb5PRse1S6Bbsfey7TqHjy2HCKAvxHksTzgB8AvEkMBCdZrTAHCXfC8CcMfXHtQSLffQvjOthbjfOO0xIwNgAYZ5peAgwcldWXV1d6b1MxM350Il4Fqf3Cz0wNFf3i2BUe6Gq8Lhmqn2cVTr80CIuzFohW2YPCUBg2Ed5E7KBTHkIsZN74INQYoMmyNRQ7kxoa6bmPR9vsA6EZbfgOF9JTIdhI46FAQMta_Rtnn4xiYqbBs8osmqhCDUjlwo_YylzSnbH4plzU1JjkosWtTtpYQcdTyNBV572VKLB6wzxSp5o877avuAlkym7H3nV9Wfxu6Wi4k37td2x2L4PsOwe_PcjfxPBbZfZV36D125rJGfnnRgzMHf8LCWlsPtuuPXyd5V6xZeS6zD_naTNhsvCxduG16z27HdUV01VWvaW3VJZaHb9ziXsteVdGkKo9EHlmnX3m_QnWfJyByeLQVbHP9afNNxgIKpb0fYYedjDiLr_ZafVm8TPSRYBthjAXGLyuZ8l5bRwc9lD7mYx0Y6B5qEMgvpZku5FWeo61Jr8AC5acJ5y8RtkNzPB_o20HR6wK8PduyUjv3H3q2JxsYBFil6vY5o2R5xFZOrf6WCUD17jtUjRm4k2DV_euUXGikdvLiVDSQcWiFzae7o9Liote5M3vT6Z66aI1Rju9Cd5B_WWO5ejwRTLO4qAjx3O_P8vtNSdS3YfOdKwmmeKdDJyfBxRJ7yyCU2tvlDbS7vfCOd_AWb4sFQNzfjU1Nn7iHdo5vrzYTeh7XLbDkw1GuI8DJUOU31i06NpX9pxpVv7t

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 11:40

ツイートシェア

2022-03-22

■anond:20220307185236

「隕石攻撃」の箇所に関する訳註です。https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20220316191220 でのご指摘に感謝します。

Igor Sushko氏による英文は以下のとおり。

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301354358636546 /https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301355990204420 /https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301356988387328

For example –you arebeing asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attackon Russia (MY COMMENTARY:Here hemost likely means the West’s sanctions) –
Soyou research the mode of attack, andyou arebeing told thatit’s just a hypothetical and not to stresson the details, soyou understand the reportis only intendedas a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive forRussia,
otherwise you basicallyget interrogated for not doing good work. So,you have towrite that we haveall necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.

一方、ロシア語の原文https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.osechkin/posts/4811633942268327 の中で、これに相当する箇所はこちら。

И вот Вам пример: Вас просят (условно) рассчитать возможность правозащиты в разных условиях, включая атаку тюрем метеоритами. Вы уточняете про метеориты, Вам говорят - это так, перестраховка для расчетов, ничего такого не будет. Вы понимаете, что отчет будет только для галочки, но написать надо в победоносном стиле, чтобы не было вопросов, мол, почему у Вас столько проблем, неужели Вы плохо работали. В общем, пишется отчет, что при падении метеорита у нас есть все, чтобы устранить последствия, мы молодцы, все хорошо. И концентрируетесь на задачах, которые реальные - у нас ведь сил и так не хватает.

これをGoogle翻訳で英訳したものが以下になります。(DeepLでもだいたい似たような訳になりました。)

Andhere's an example foryou:you areasked (condition ally) to calculate thepossibility ofhuman rights protection in different conditions, including the attack of pris onsby meteorites.You specify about meteorites, they tellyou - this is so, reinsurance for calculations,nothing like this will happen.You understand that the reportwill be just for show, butyou need towrite in a victorious style so that there are no questions, they say,why doyou have so many problems,did you really work badly. In general, a reportis being written that when a meteorite falls, we haveeverything to eliminate the consequences, we are great,everything is fine. Andyou concentrateon tasks that are real - wedon’t have enough strength anyway.

これを比較してみると、「隕石攻撃」は単にロシアに隕石が降ってくるという話ではなく、「刑務所に隕石が降ってくるような攻撃を含めた諸々の条件において、人権が守られる可能性」を算出せよ、という話だったというのが正しい理解であると思われます。

日本語に意訳するならばこんな感じでしょうか。何故この文脈で急に人権が出てくるのか謎ですし、(condition ally)のあたりもうまく訳せませんが…。

一例を挙げる—故事に言う杞憂のようなものも含め、諸々の攻撃に対する我々の備えの確率を算出せよ、との指示が下る。杞憂のようなものって具体的には何ですか、と尋ねてみれば、それはあくまで念には念を入れろということで、実際にこんなことが起こるというものではない、と言われる。それなら、なるほどこの報告は見せもので、ただ我々は勝ち誇ったように、問題など何も無い、という論調にする必要があり、そうでなければ「仕事ができていない」と詰問されるんだな、と理解する。したがって、報告書の結論は、たとえ天が落ちてこようが我々には対抗手段が揃っている、大したことなどない、ということになる。そうしておいて、我々は現実に起きている問題のほうに集中する－どのみち我々の手には余る話なのだし。

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 23:13

ツイートシェア

2022-01-14

■anond:20220114171723 anond:20220114173359

どう考えても元増田もこう言うの喜ぶ連中も

ネットde真実さんのお仲間でしょうよ。反対の主張してるだけですね

ダイプリ編
病院のベッドに空きがなくなるのを心配するのが、空が落ちてくるのを心配するレベル。
自粛不要
一斉休校は科学的根拠がない。子どもは感染しないし重症化しない
ドライブスルー検査は害悪
PCRは感度が低い
PCRは日本だけ疫学に使えない水準にある
検査は不要。院内感染起こしまくってるけど不要
集団免疫
肺炎になるまで家にいろ(でも俺は平熱でも病院へ行くby橋下氏)

ここでいうネットde真実とは？
TwitterやヤフトピやYouTubeや週刊誌のみが真実で
文責のある海外メディアや論文や学会の見解や科学読み物や各国の政府のデータを意図的にシャットアウトして過ごす人たち
不思議と世界の動きとエビデンス以前の疫学的常識に逆張りする

あと下記も理解できないおつむだろうなって思ってる

インフルのワクチンは、ほぼ義務として看護師・介護士・関連職員はだいたい打つが、医師はそうでもない
なんなら予防接種後の副反応に詳しい医療機関を受診し、診察を受けるのが良いかと思いますと言っている
その意味をよくよく考えるこった

⭐️自衛隊が接種しなかったのはモデルナの金属混入知ってたのかもな。あと副反応が日本のみ酷かったのは人種や体格の問題ではなく異物だったのかもな⭐️
モデルナ製の新型コロナワクチン
　【パリ共同】米モデルナ製の新型コロナウイルスワクチンに異物の混入が見つかった問題で、製造に関わったスペインの製薬会社ロビは２６日、声明を発表し、異物が見つかったロットは日本のみに納入されたと明らかにした。
　ロビの製造ラインの一つが原因だった可能性があるとして、調査に協力し続けると表明した。
　ロビはモデルナと委託契約を結んでいる。米国以外へ納入されるワクチンについて、スイスの企業が製造した原料をスペインの首都マドリード郊外の工場で瓶に充填し、完成させる最終工程を担っている。
　
抗体依存性感染増強（ADE）についてはなんとも言えんかな。アメリカでも模範解答は、
"CurrentSARS-CoV-2 vaccines appear to be providing protection with high antibody titers; thepossibility of ADE risks associated with waning titers of antibodiesover time remains unknown. " だし
　
ただ過去にADE起こしたワクチンあったよね？については排除されてるよと書きつつ記載もしている
"Anote for concerned parents:Zero vaccines giventoday cause ADE. An older measles vaccineand a respiratory syncytialvirus (RSV) vaccine were removed from use after showingevidence of causing ADE. A denguevirus vaccine causing ADEwas also discontinued for young children."

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 17:25

ツイートシェア

2021-09-13

■物知らずは安全を連呼することで不安を乗り切ろうとする

ワクチンは効果がないどころか害があるというなら

ワクチンに限らず、『薬害エイズ』『睡眠薬のサリドマイド』『胃腸薬のキノホルム』『腎臓病治療薬のクロロキ』などなど、

ただ単に物知らずかバカなんだなって感想。安全を連呼したら空気を読んで安全になってくれたりしないぞ

"CurrentSARS-CoV-2 vaccines appear to be providing protection with high antibody titers; thepossibility of ADE risks associated with waning titers of antibodiesover time remains unknown. "

物知らずかバカなのに一丁前に積み重ね云々とかほざいてるが、

日本政府と日本のアカデミアがしてきたのは、2大学術誌に日本の不正研究を名指しされた話を持ち出すまでもなく、

PCR 検査は意味がない、ワクチンを使わずに集団免疫、小児は感染しない、コロナはただの風邪、空気感染しない、満員電車は安全、

ほか、政府や科学に対する信頼を毀損するようなロクでもない事ばかりだ

(もちろん、正しい声をあげてくれた大学や病院やアカデミアの人間や政治家もいることは認識している。都度、書いてる)

反知性や専門家の否定は、政治家・研究者・医者自身が生んでいることを強く強く自覚を持たれた方がよろしいと思います

▼シーランド公国の“建国”から50年。自称「世界最小の独立国」とは？

https://www.huffingtonpost.jp/kenji-ando/principality-of-sealand_a_23194493/

もちろん過去の薬害の歴史から心配して接種を控えている人もる。何事も絶対はないし子どもへの接種には否定的な科学者も多い

コロナの致死率は高く無いし様子見るわはまぁフツーの判断じゃないかな

感染を防ぐ効果については調査方法・機関によってまちまちというか

フツーにブレイクスルーするみたいだけど(実際、2回接種済みの親(医療従事者)もフツーに感染した)

感染を防ぐ壁を作らないやつはフリーライドという誹りはまぁ致し方ない

ただそれぞれの判断は尊重されるべきだ

国民健康保険に入らず病院に行くべきじゃないよな

お前は何を言ってるんだ？

anond:20210913083041

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 09:56

ツイートシェア

2021-09-11

■anond:20210911183746

⭐️入院させたのは病院の判断じゃねーの？　→常識の補足をいくつか⭐️

PCRの結果は出るまで自宅待機だよ。入院なんかしないよ(出来ないよ)
PCRが陰性でも発熱がある・原因が特定出来ていない状況で一般病棟には入れないよ(偽陰性があるため)
一般国民は手術が急遽中止になってたりするし、そもそも不急の入院・手術延期を要請の通達が出てるよ
余力がある病院を認識しているならなぜ福井や和歌山や墨田区みたいに地域医療のグループ化を先導しないのか？
義務は果たさないけど入院だけはするぴょん
民間病院にも税金が入っているし、そもそも保険証というシステムだよ
行政の責任者だから直ちに優先的に対応する必要があったってそれはコロナとか死にかけている場合のみでは？
それ以外の状況でも差し障る体力状態ならご高齢なのだし、ご自身の健康のためにも勇退すべき

⭐️自衛隊が接種しなかったのはモデルナの金属混入知ってたのかもな。あと副反応が日本のみ酷かったのは人種や体格の問題ではなく異物だったのかもな⭐️

モデルナ製の新型コロナワクチン
　【パリ共同】米モデルナ製の新型コロナウイルスワクチンに異物の混入が見つかった問題で、製造に関わったスペインの製薬会社ロビは２６日、声明を発表し、異物が見つかったロットは日本のみに納入されたと明らかにした。
　ロビの製造ラインの一つが原因だった可能性があるとして、調査に協力し続けると表明した。
　ロビはモデルナと委託契約を結んでいる。米国以外へ納入されるワクチンについて、スイスの企業が製造した原料をスペインの首都マドリード郊外の工場で瓶に充填し、完成させる最終工程を担っている。

抗体依存性感染増強（ADE）についてはなんとも言えんかな。アメリカでも模範解答は、

"CurrentSARS-CoV-2 vaccines appear to be providing protection with high antibody titers; thepossibility of ADE risks associated with waning titers of antibodiesover time remains unknown. " だし

ただ過去にADE起こしたワクチンあったよね？については排除されてるよと書きつつ記載もしている

"Anote for concerned parents:Zero vaccines giventoday cause ADE. Anolder measles vaccineand a respiratory syncytialvirus (RSV) vaccine were removed from use after showingevidence of causing ADE. A denguevirus vaccine causing ADEwas also discontinued for young children."

⭐️選挙で落とせない内閣府や省庁や経済会議の民間議員・部員・メンバー、自民党である限りどうにも出来ないんだなぁ。むしろ立憲でもどうにかなるかどうか・・・⭐️

・古市憲寿氏 (院は東大だが慶應義塾大学環境情報学部卒、慶應義塾大学 SFC 研究所上席所員)
　　→日本学術振興会「育志賞」受賞する肩書きは社会学者
　　→民主党の時から自民の現在に至るまで内閣府の様々なメンバー、厚生労働省「雇用・女性支援プロジェクトチーム」メンバー
　　→高齢者に「十年早く死んでくれ」と言うわけじゃなくて、「最後の一ヶ月間の延命治療はやめませんか?」と提案すればいい。
　　→[小山田圭吾氏の障害者虐待について]
　　　DaiGo氏「謝ればいいってもんじゃないと思うなら裁判でもすればいいだけの話よな」
　　　古市憲寿氏「本当そうだよね。まあ民事の場合、裁判を起こすには頭とお金がいるから。。。」
　　→ [ホームレスと生活保護者に差別発言をしたDaiGo氏について]
　　「生活保護のあり方や理解が深まった」「(DaiGo氏は)メンタル弱いんですよ。いつも落ち込んでいて」

・新浪剛史氏 (MBAはハーバードでとってるが慶應義塾大学経済学部卒)
　　→サントリー社長で経済財政諮問会議の民間議員
　　　関連増田：サントリーってやばい会社だな。45歳希望退職を募るではなく『45歳定年制』かぁ
　　　https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20210910162301

・伊藤穰一氏 (慶應義塾大学大学院政策博士、慶應義塾大学大学院メディアデザイン研究科元非常勤講師)
　　→コーネリアス小山田氏の親戚でベンチャーキャピタリスト、ジェフリー・エプスタインの件でMITや様々な役職をクビになったが、
　　　なぜかデジタル庁の事務方トップ「デジタル監」に起用される予定だった、
　　　そして最終的にはデジタル社会構想会議の有職者メンバーに落ち着く

・竹中平蔵氏 (慶應義塾大学名誉教授)
　　　 →パソナ会長で内閣日本経済再生本部産業競争力会議の民間議員で内閣府国家戦略特別区域諮問会議の有識者議員

・夏野剛氏(慶應義塾大学大学院政策・メディア研究科特別招聘教授)
　　→株式会社KADOKAWA 社長で(内閣府)規制改革推進会議議長でデジタル庁有識者メンバーでオリンピックでは組織委員会参与を勤めた

⭐️なお、(内閣府)規制改革推進会議議長でデジタル庁有識者メンバーの夏野氏ありがたいお言葉の数々　↓

夏野氏
「あと、言いにくいが、税金払ってない人の2倍の投票権を税金払っている人に与えていいと思う。どちらにしろ東京の人の票の重さは鳥取の半分以下だし。最高裁も2倍までいいと言ってたらしいしね。」
「国民に高いコストを払わせてお世話になっているくせに当然の権利のようにTPP 反対デモしている農民を見ると、事実上倒産しているくせに解雇に反対するJALの組合とかぶる。どちらも既得権益を守ろうとしているだけで、決して弱者ではないことに注意」
「30年くらい先を見越すと、都会か地方か、ではなく、人口減少下のニッポンである一定の人口密度以下の場所に住むということはそこの公共サービスを維持するために莫大な税金が必要となり、ものすごく贅沢なことになるという認識を持たざるを得なくなる。」
　
　↓
　
Twitter民
「人口密度の高い地域の電気や水道水、食料はどこの地域からのものでしょう？どれだけの恩恵を人口密度の低い地域に頼ってますか？
利用者が少ないからとせっかく築きあげてた鉄道は廃線になり、どこの地域にもあった学校も統廃合でスクールバス通学、最低賃金格差、人口減少に向かわせた政策です。」
「他人より稼げているのは社会システムによる富の分配の偏りの恩恵で、能力より役割ですよね。所得が少ない人は税金払ってないというのなら法治国家そのものが崩壊しますよ。教授は食料作り出せないでしょ。低収入農家をバカにしないで。」
　
　↓
　
夏野氏「はあ。」
　※小馬鹿にして「はあ。」と返すのがお好きなようで @tnatsu はあで検索するとたくさん引っかかる

夏野氏「竹中さんに大いに期待する。竹中さんの明確すぎる論に反発する感情的な人たちが日本のガンなのだ。 /英雄？悪玉？竹中氏に再び脚光　戦略特区メンバーの有力候補浮上」

夏野氏「税金払ってないくせに格差を問題視する若者、将来に希望なし。」

夏野氏「税金も払ってないのに年金と社会保障要求し、公共事業で仕事を作れという方が傲慢じゃない？」

夏野氏「今年選挙があるからだと思います。公平感？そんなクソなピアノの発表会なんかどうでもいいでしょ、オリンピックに比べれば。一緒にするアホな国民感情に今年選挙があるから乗らざるを得ない」

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 19:08

ツイートシェア

2021-07-04

■anond:20210704153607

仕事で文章かくときネガティブなことに対して可能性という言葉を使うときに毎回もやりながらでも可能性という言葉を使ってる

英語だとpossibility chance riskって感じで明確なんだけど

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 21:08

ツイートシェア

2020-04-21

■Kimetsu - Privacy Policy

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Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 21:30

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2020-03-29

■Privacy Policy 背景透過アプリ

## Accepting the Terms and Privacy Policy

We reserve the right to refuseany user access to the Services without notice forany reason, including, but not limited to, aviolation of the Terms.

You represent that you are 13 years old or older. Ifyou arebetween theages of 13 and 18,you represent that your legal guardianhas reviewedand agrees to the Terms.

##Intellectual Property/Ownership

User Content

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Ifyou haveany questions about these Terms of Service, please contact usat reposting23334.contact@gmail.com

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 13:30

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2020-03-27

■「楽園はこちら側」の「事実に誠意を」をほぼdeepLで翻訳してみた　その２

その１https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20200327214055

12 Dr.Hiroshi Nishiurais one of the few professionals of mathematicalmodels of infectious diseases inJapan, andit is well known that his abilityis outstanding. However, many peopledon't understand mathematicalmodels themselves (I must confess that I can't say that I understand a ll of the findings because I'm not a professional of mathematicalmodels either), sohis findings and comments are easily deified. Because the contents of the mathematicalmodel are a complete blackbox to many people,it makesit seemlike theoracle is comingout like ashrine'soracle. Much ofJapan's infection control policy relieson the Nishiuratheory. So there is nothing wrongwith that, butone of the problems inJapan is that there is no plan B incase plan A goes bust. Dr. Nishiurais anexcellent scholar.It is notGod. Hence theneed to have that Plan B with thepossibility of making a mistake. Iam greatlyconcerned that bureaucrats and politicianswho are prone to infallibilismwill mistake science for anoracle.It is only when falsifiabilityis assured that science cancontinue to be scientific.

感想：おみくじと神託が同じoracleだったので変な文章になったが直していない。

13数理モデルは演繹法の活用産物である。演繹法は帰納法やアブダクションで補完するのが、学問の基本であり、臨床医学の常識である。演繹法的にどんなに正しく見えても実はそれは違っていた、ということはこの業界ではよくあることなのだ。ヘーゲルやマルクスのような巨大な知性でも演繹法オンリーでは間違うのである。

Mathematicalmodels are the product of deductive methods. The deductive methodis complementedby the inductive or abduction method, whichis the bas is of scholarship and thecommon sense of clinical medicine.It's acommon occurrence in this industry that no matter how deducibly correctit may seem,it's actually nottrue. Even ahuge intellectlike Hegel or Marx canmake a mistakeby deduction alone.

感想：「蓋を開けてみれば」を「実はそれは」に変更した。

14モデルを使うな、といっているのでは決してない。ぼく自身、モデルを用いて論文を書く。しかし、モデルは無謬ではなく、そこには前提である仮定があり、仮定はしばしば間違っている。グラム染色を活用するとは、グラム染色にできないこと、分からないことを知悉していることであり、グラム染色万能論者にグラム染色は使えない。同じことだ。英国でも数理モデルは活用されているが、だからこそ英国人はその結語には非常に懐疑的で、常に反論、異論が起きている。健全で科学的な態度である。

　I'm not sayingdon't use themodel at all. I myselfwrite apaper using amodel. However, themodel is not infallible, there areassumptions that areassumptions, and theassumptions are often wrong. Making use of Gram's stain means having full knowledge of what Gram's stain cannot do anddoes not understand, and Gram's stain cannot be usedby Gram's stain universalists.It's the same thing. Mathematicalmodels are also utilized in theUK, whichis why Br its are very sceptical of their conclusions, and there arealways counter-arguments and objections.It is a sound and scientificattitude.

感想：「前提たる仮定」がうまく訳せていなかったので「前提である仮定」にしたが、assumptions that areassumptionsになってしまった。

「英国人は」がないと主語がIになってしまったので追加した。しかしBr itsじゃ意味違うよ。もっと正しく訳してくれない？

15Japan's "now"is a well-controlledstate of infection, whichis much better than Wuhanat itsworst, orItaly,Spain,France,England, orNew York at the presenttime. The problemis that it doesn't guarantee that it will "always work".

感想：特にない。便利だなあ。

16懸念されるのは東京だ。感染報告が増えたことだけが問題なのではない。クラスターを形成できない、トレースできない感染者が増えているのが問題である。そして、その陽性患者数に比べて検査数がずっと少ない。47人の感染者を捕捉するために100人未満（陽性者の検査日が不明だが、おそらくこのへんだろう）しか検査していないのは少なすぎる。

It is Tokyo that is ofconcern. The increase in reports of infection is not theonly problem. The problemis that more andmore infected people are unable to form clusters and cannot be traced. And thenumber oftestsis much lower than that number of positivecases;it's toolittle that theyonlytested less than100 people (thedate oftesting for the positivesis unknown, butit's probably aroundhere) to capture 47 infected people.

Again,it's not necessary to figureout all the infected people. However,it is troubling that theflow of infection, movement and clusters areout of sight. Therefore, the threshold fortesting must be lowered inTokyo. The threshold fortesting varieswith the circumstances. That's what I explainedwith theKorean example.Sticking to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's "standards"will lead to a misunderstanding of the phenomenon itself. Already in theKansai region, infected people have beenfound with t aste and smell abnormalities, and clusters have been detected from there. I wouldlike tomake more use of theathletic sensibilities of these clinicians. I'm not sure "where" inTokyo is the barrier to lowering thenumber of inspections, but that barrierneeds to be removed immediately.

感想：「捕捉するのに」を「捕捉するために」に変更した。多分これでいいと思う。思いたい。

アスチュートがathleticになっているのはどう反応したらいいかわからない。

17 This conceptual diagram that everyone is lookingat - lowering thepeak of the infection and shiftingit to the side. This is all a product of deduction, and Idon't know ifit's reallytrue.As mentioned above, theUK estimates already suggest that this is not enough.It is possible that thedamage that was shifted to the side could simply be "extra-longdamage".

感想：特に言うことはない。便利だなあ。

18 　そして、ここが肝心なのだが、ピークを下げるという理念が、「ピークを下げなければいけない」という観念になり、「ピークは下がっているはずだ」という確信になり、「ピークは起きていないんだ」という自己暗示に転じてはいけないということだ。プランAに固執する日本あるあるの失敗のパターンで、ダイヤモンド・プリンセスでは「二次感染が起きてはいけない」が「起きているはずがない」に転じてノーガード下船を許してしまった。「ピークが起きてはいけない」が「ピークなんて見たくない」にならないように現実を見据える必要がある。たとえ、それが我々の見たくない不都合な真実であったとしても。

And this is thekey point: theidea of lowering thepeak should not become the notion that thepeak must be lowered, or the belief that thepeak must be lowered, or the self-implication that thepeak is not happening. In a pattern ofJapanese failure tostick to Plan A,Diamond Princessallowed no-guard disembarkation by changing "secondary infection should not occur" to "it can't have happened". Weneed to keep oureyes on reality so that "peak shouldn't happen"doesn't become "Idon't want to see apeak. Even ifit is an inconvenienttruth that wedon't want to see.

感想：mustが違う文脈で二回出てきている。よくわかるように変更したいものだ。

カギカッコがないとうまく訳せなかったので追加しているが、なぜかカッコ閉じるがいくつか抜けている。この箇所以外にも抜けがある。

19 Repeatedly.It'scommon knowledge in this industry that deductive methods are complementedby inductive methods. Nevertheless,PCR is oftenfalse-negative andhas little power to determine the status of infection. That'swhy "testingeverything"is so wrong. However, a serumtest measuring immunoglobulinIgM and IgG would provide amore accurate picture of the "status of infection in the population. This, however,is not infallible.It is difficult to use for individualcases becauseit misses early infection, whichis why it misses earlyHIV infection.Whether antibodytestingis useful in individualcases remains to betested, butit is well suited for epidemiological studieson a population bas is. Roughly speaking, we can confirm whether the "infection is rampant" inTokyo rightnow, or whetherit's just an unfoundedfear.

前例としては、ロンドンの血清検査で09年パンデミックインフルエンザが従来予測の10倍起きていたことが血清検査でわかっている。抗体検査はアウトブレイクのあとで事後的に行うことが多いが、慢性的パンデミックになりつつあるCOVID-19については、「今」こそが検証のポイントといって良い。

As a precedent, serologytests inLondon showed that the2009 pandemic fluwas 10 timesmore likely than previously predicted. Antibodytestingis often performed after anout break, butnow is a goodtime to examine COVID-19, whichis becoming a chronic pandemic.

感想：「前例はあって」を「前例としては」に変えた。「前例はある。なおかつロンドンで〜１０倍起きていた」になってしまったからだ。

20 英国はさらにアグレッシブだ。家庭で抗体検査を行い、「感染者である」とわかればそれを自宅での自己隔離の根拠に使おうというのだ。ロックダウンが起きている中で、検査陰性は「自己隔離不要」を意味しないため、その戦略に欠陥はある。が、考え方としては「感染全体を抑え込みたい」というもので、検討の価値はあると思う。

TheUK is evenmore aggressive. Theidea is totest for antibodiesat home, and if they arefound to be infected, theywill useit as a bas is for self-isolation at home. That strategy is flawed becausewith the lockdown in place, anegative test does not mean "no self-sequestration". However, theidea is that we want to control the infection as awhole, and Ithink it is worth considering.

感想：「戦略に穴はある」を「戦略に欠陥はある」に変えた。

21東京でどのくらいの感染が起きているか、帰納法的確認は必要であり、有用だ。その結果がどうなるかは預言者ではないぼくには分からない。が、どんな結果が出てきても、それを受け入れ、場合によっては自説を変えて、プランBに移行することにも躊躇しない態度が科学者には必要だ。科学者は、首尾一貫していないことにかけて、首尾一貫していなければならないのだ。形式においては首尾一貫していなくても、プリンシプルやプロフェッショナリズムにおいて一貫しなければならないのだ。事実に誠意を。　

Inductive legal confirmation of how many infections are occurring inTokyo is necessary and useful. I'm not a prophet, so Idon't know what theoutcomewill be.However, no matter what theoutcome, scientistsneed toaccept it and not hesit ate tochange their thesis andmove on toPlan B in somecases. Scientists have to be coherent in their inconsistencies.Theymay not be coherent in form, but they must be coherent in principles and professionalism. Goodfaith inthe facts.　

感想：首尾一貫という言葉を使いすぎて文章をアホっぽくしてしまったが他にいい方法が思いつかない。朝三暮四は理解してくれなかった。「自説を曲げ」は「自説を変えて」に変更した。

文章はもう少し整形できると思うがとりあえずこれで。

岩田健太郎先生とDeepLに敬意を。

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2020-03-22

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2019-07-11

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「必然的にそのような結果になる」じゃなくて「必然としてそのような結果になる」なら分かるけど。あえて言うなら、可能性と蓋然性は英語におけるpossibility と probability に対応している、という感じな。

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2019-07-02

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possibility

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2018-06-04

■anond:20180604161621

Although what causes pedophiliais not yet known, researchers began reporting a series of findings linking pedophilia with brainstructure and function,beginning in 2002. Testing individuals from a variety of referral sources inside and outside the criminaljustice systemas wellas controls, these studiesfound associationsbetween pedophilia andlowerIQs,[48][49][50] poorer scoreson memory tests,[49] greater rates of non-right-handedness,[48][49][51][52] greater rates of school grade failureover and above theIQ differences,[53] lesser physical height,[54][55] greater probability of having sufferedchildhood head injuries resulting in unconsciousness,[56][57] and several differences inMRI-detected brainstructures.[58][59][60]
Such studies suggest that there areone ormore neurological characteristics presentat birth that cause or increasethe likelihood ofbeing pedophilic. Some studies havefound that pedophiles are less cognitively impaired than non-pedophilic child molesters.[61] A 2011 study reported that pedophilic child molesters had deficits inresponse inhibition, but no deficits in memory or cognitive flexibility.[62]Evidence of familial transmittability "suggests, butdoes not prove that genetic factors are responsible" for the development of pedophilia.[63] A 2015 study indicated that pedophilic offenders have anormal IQ.[64]
Another study, using structuralMRI, indicated that male pedophiles have alower volume ofwhite matter than a controlgroup.[58] Functionalmagnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)has indicated that child molesters diagnosed with pedophilia have reduced activation of the hypothalamusas compared with non-pedophilic persons when viewingsexually arousing pictures of adults.[65] A 2008 functional neuroimaging study notes that centralprocessing ofsexual stimuli in heterosexual "paedophile forensic inpatients"may be alteredby a disturbance in the prefrontal networks, which "may beassociated with stimulus-controlled behaviours, suchas sexual compulsive behaviours". The findingsmay also suggest "a dysfunction at the cognitive stage ofsexual arousalprocessing".[66]
Blanchard, Cantor, and Robichaud (2006) reviewed the research that attempted to identify hormonalaspects of pedophiles.[67] They concluded that thereis someevidence that pedophilic men have less testosterone than controls, but that the researchis of poor quality and that it is difficult todraw any firm conclusion fromit.
While not causes of pedophilia themselves,childhood abuseby adults or comorbid psychiatric illnesses—suchas personality disorders andsubstance abuse—are risk factors for actingon pedophilic urges.[6] Blanchard, Cantor, and Robichaud addressed comorbid psychiatric illnesses that, "The theoretical implications are not so clear. Do particular genes or noxious factors in the prenatal environment predispose amale to develop both affective disorders and pedophilia, or do the frustration,danger, andisolation engenderedby unacceptablesexual desires—or their occasional furtivesatisfaction—lead to anxiety and despair?"[67] They indicated that, because they previouslyfound mothers of pedophiles to bemore likely to have undergone psychiatric treatment,[56] the geneticpossibility is more likely.
A study analyzing thesexual fantasies of 200 heterosexual menby using the Wilson Sex Fantasy Questionnaire exam determined that males with a pronounced degree of paraphilic interest (including pedophilia) had a greaternumber of older brothers, a high2D:4D digit ratio (which would indicatelow prenatal androgen exposure),and an elevated probability ofbeing left-handed, suggesting that disturbed hemispheric brain lateralization may play a role in deviantattractions.[68]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedophilia

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 16:16

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2017-08-06

■5 reasonswhy Japanese Engineer are fuking dan

Despite ofthe fact whichInternet has connected people inthe world, due to thecrucial firewall -English,Japanese Engineers couldn'tjoin advanced technology discussion andcatch up latest services. Instead of that,they have just kept maintaining theiroriginal ecosystem which representsas hatena,Qiita andniconico.Ifit's other domains suchas "Japanese food" or "Japanese Pop Culture", then, there might bepossibility to have some valuable outcome from that. But ifit goes to "Technology" domain,it's justdamn if we goeslike that way or "Reinventing the wheel" whichdon't follow global standard andit's no value inthe world. Infact, Technologies and Services which are well known and originate fromJapan are too less inpoint of ratio ofpopulation and outcome.

They tends totry increasing their market valueby neithergettingstars on github nor launch new service, but just havespeech in suchas conferences toget more highername recognition.It seems they just want to weet orblog - "Givingspeech!" or "Speech done! andnothing more. I want toname it as "Mounting Driven Development" - peoplewants toget better position in marketby neither codenor services but fu*king da*nspecialized commentsonly. "衒学趣味"

Though most of the contents thatspeech are kind of "I translated officialdocs inJapanese!", "I'vedone 'Get Started'!",due to audienceissue whichis lacking of habits to readEnglish articles or not able to do so,it causes curious result that theyappreciate that kind ofspeech much.it gets comments suchas "I learned much fromit!", "I couldget latest knowledge!" and "Add Favorites!" andit satisfy theguy who givsspeech,tweet andblog, and motivate them to haveda*mnext post. Thoughit's justnoise forwhom usually research Primary information inEnglish,it seemsit'sstill valuable for them sinceit gives feelings to them that somewhat I understood that latest technology.

Because theylikes "Technical document" much, though they usually study with books evenit's Front-end latest technology, Many of them are just translatedoriginal EN contents orda*n notsexy sample code,it's worthless inthe world which dynamically changingdayby day in few months. Regardless of free latest contents which can be found everywhere, they justget Secon dary Information givenby some evangelists withpassive mindset,it causes making this Evangelist? market stable due to this kind of information gap structure.

They couldn't neither accepting the things abovenor justget awaredwith that withpure mindset and though doing encourage each other withsweets message suchas "ManyJapanese Engineers are great andfantastic!",excellent Japanese resources ignore that kind ofdomestic industry situation and already working hard in foreign countries andit expands this bipolarization issue worse bacause they won't have organized explanation and slides for that kind ofda*n people inJapanese and instead of that, code andmake output in a second, discuss with engineers abroad inEnglish.

Permalink |記事への反応(2) | 19:23

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■5 reasonswhyJapanese Engineer are fu*kingda*n

論文「Unnaturalness in theevolution process of theSARS-CoV-2 variants and thepossibility of deliberatenatural selection」（田中敦・宮沢孝幸）の要点は以下の通りです：

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