  |
はてなキーワード:lineageとは
筋肉の萎縮（atrophy）の影響を改善（ameliorate）するために、ハリソン博士はこれまで慣れ親しんだ区域（precinct）を離れ、運動ニューロン（motor neuron）の変性に関する最新の知見を同化（assimilate）しようとしました。彼は、地域に固有（endemic）な問題によって進歩が制約（constricted）され、住民の信頼に深い塹壕（trench）のような傷跡を残しているために、不安を和らげよう（allay）と試みました。新しい実験室の角張った（angular）デザインは、【訂正: (旧: hydrolysis ⇒ 新: advanced engineering principles)】の原理に基づいて設計されており、以前の大失敗（debacle）かつ取り返しのつかない（irremediable）実験が社会的（societal）信頼を揺るがせたのと、はっきりと対照を成していました。研究センターの豪華な（opulent）ホールでは、批評家たちがその頑丈な（stout）かつ二元的な（binary）研究モデルを信用失墜（discredit）させようとし、進歩に対する巨石（boulder）のような障害として、Australopithecus africanus のような遺物を引き合いに出し、成果を【訂正: (旧: circumvent ⇒ 新: avoid)】しようとしました。彼らはあらゆる細部を徹底的に調査（scour）し、些細な惨事（fiasco）すらも、細胞における異常な胎生（viviparity）や、放浪的（vagrant）な実験手法の【訂正: (旧: abstinence ⇒ 新: avoidance)】の証拠にしようとしたのです。
プロジェクトの革新的な感覚器官（senseorgan）—時に憂鬱（morose）に見える、しかしアイデアの洞窟（cavern）のような存在—は、最も親しみやすい（congenial）人物さえも【訂正: (旧: agitate ⇒ 新: stimulate)】する力を持っていました。理論を支持する大量の（copious）データが集まり始め、支持の流れが引いて（ebb）いく中、噂がその型破りな（atypical）アプローチを【訂正: (旧: topple ⇒ 新: undermine)】し、さらなる自由度（leeway）を狭めようとする兆候が見えました。複数の専門家は、もし研究者が熱意が衰える（wane）中も安全規則に【訂正: (旧: contravene ⇒ 新: violate)】ならば、実験装置内の対流（convection）によるエネルギーが新たな発見を【訂正: (旧: entice ⇒ 新: attract)】と仮定（postulate）しましたが、その効果は、まるで山の尾根（ridge）に沿うような【訂正: (旧: indefinite ⇒ 新: uncertain)】挑戦によって試されることになりました。
過去の失敗の真の犯人（culprit）は無表情（impassive）に存在し、証拠は個別の（discrete）ものでしたが、その提示方法はあまりにも平然（nonchalant）としていたため、やがてその重要性が消散（dissipate）してしまうかませんでした。新たに設計された装置のシャーシ（chassis）に付けられたキャプション（caption）は、チームが大胆なアイデアに【訂正: (旧: acquiesce ⇒ 新: follow)】好機となりました。たとえそれらが一部の人々には【訂正: (旧: inane ⇒ 新: meaningless)】に思われたとしても、彼らはこの研究が政府の命令（fiat）によって【訂正: (旧: gratify ⇒ 新: fulfill)】ためのものであり、批評家を【訂正: (旧: engaging ⇒ 新: attract)】ためのおとり（decoy）であると主張（allege）しました。それにもかかわらず、当局は誤りを【訂正: (旧: fumigate ⇒ 新: rectify)】するためのプロトコルを公布（promulgate）することに躊躇せず、その姿勢は偽情報の専制政治（tyranny）に対抗するための最後の手段（recourse）として、科学の系譜（lineage）を守るためのものでした。
また、隠された影響力を粉砕（shatter）する決意のもと、委員会は憂慮する市民からの正式な嘆願（petition）を【訂正: (旧:complement ⇒ 新: supplement)】する形で受け入れ、まるで【訂正: (旧:vocal cords ⇒ 新: voices)】が一つになって医療不正の災厄（scourge）に立ち向かうかのようでした。厳しい戒告（admonition）とともに、学際的なチームを溶接（weld）して結成し、この旅路（odyssey）の感動的な瞬間（poignancy）を取り戻し、真実への容赦ない（ruthless）取り組みを【訂正: (旧: typify ⇒ 新: embody)】することを決意しました。たとえ浮浪者（vagabond）のような批評家が、既存の事実に対する否定（negation）を唱え、支持者の決意を青ざめさせ【訂正: (旧: blanch ⇒ 新: dishearten)】ようと試みても、委員会は発見の【訂正: (旧:navel ⇒ 新:core)】のような明確な（unequivocal）洞察をもたらす【訂正: (旧: fetch ⇒ 新: yield)】ことを約束し、その知識を新たに授ける【訂正: (旧: bestow ⇒ 新: impart)】意志を示しました。一部の人々は懐疑論で研究を【訂正: (旧: stab ⇒ 新: impugn)】一方、代替理論を抑圧する（stifle）ことに気が進まない【訂正: (旧: loath ⇒ 新: reluctant)】と主張しましたが、学界での【訂正: (旧: hypertension ⇒ 新: tension)】の高まりは現代研究の公理（axiom）となり、付随する（collateral）リスクも現実のものとなりました。狡猾なイタチ（weasel）のような手法でさえ、違法な密輸品（contraband）実験に対する懸念を和らげる（assuage）ことはできませんでした。代わりに、チームは古いアイデアと新しい理論との間の深淵（chasm）を埋めるための骨の折れる（strenuous）取り組みを開始し、その一歩一歩が【訂正: (旧: notch ⇒ 新:milestone)】となり、乳酸（lacticacid）研究の記録に刻まれていきました。用心深い（circumspect）分析と共謀（collusion）への断固たる拒否は、彼らの自然なカリスマ性（charisma）を一層際立たせる結果となったのです。
筋肉の萎縮（atrophy）の影響を改善（ameliorate）するために、ハリソン博士はこれまで慣れ親しんだ区域（precinct）を離れ、運動ニューロン（motor neuron）の変性に関する最新の知見を同化（assimilate）しようとしました。彼は、地域に固有（endemic）な問題によって進歩が制約（constricted）され、住民の信頼に深い塹壕（trench）のような傷跡を残しているために、不安を和らげよう（allay）と試みました。新しい実験室の角張った（angular）デザインは、加水分解（hydrolysis）の原理に基づいて設計されており、以前の大失敗（debacle）かつ取り返しのつかない（irremediable）実験が社会的（societal）信頼を揺るがせたのと、はっきりと対照を成していました。研究センターの豪華な（opulent）ホールでは、批評家たちがその頑丈な（stout）かつ二元的な（binary）研究モデルを信用失墜（discredit）させようとし、進歩に対する巨石（boulder）のような障害として、Australopithecus africanus のような遺物を引き合いに出し、成果を回避（circumvent）しようとしました。彼らはあらゆる細部を徹底的に調査（scour）し、些細な惨事（fiasco）すらも、細胞における異常な胎生（viviparity）や、放浪的（vagrant）な実験手法の回避（abstinence）の証拠にしようとしたのです。
プロジェクトの革新的な感覚器官（senseorgan）—時に憂鬱（morose）に見える、しかしアイデアの洞窟（cavern）のような存在—は、最も親しみやすい（congenial）人物さえもかき立てる（agitate）力を持っていました。理論を支持する大量の（copious）データが集まり始め、支持の流れが引いて（ebb）いく中、噂がその型破りな（atypical）アプローチを打倒（topple）し、さらなる自由度（leeway）を狭めようとする兆候が見えました。複数の専門家は、もし研究者が熱意が衰える（wane）中も安全規則に違反しない（contravene）ならば、実験装置内の対流（convection）によるエネルギーが新たな発見を呼び寄せる（entice）と仮定（postulate）しましたが、その効果は、まるで山の尾根（ridge）に沿うような不確定な（indefinite）挑戦によって試されることになりました。
過去の失敗の真の犯人（culprit）は無表情（impassive）に存在し、証拠は個別の（discrete）ものでしたが、その提示方法はあまりにも平然（nonchalant）としていたため、やがてその重要性が消散（dissipate）してしまうかもしれませんでした。新たに設計された装置のシャーシ（chassis）に付けられたキャプション（caption）は、チームが大胆なアイデアに従う（acquiesce）好機となりました。たとえそれらが一部の人々には無意味（inane）に思われたとしても、彼らはこの研究が政府の命令（fiat）によって満足させる（gratify）ためのものであり、批評家を引きつける（engaging）ためのおとり（decoy）であると主張（allege）しました。それにもかかわらず、当局は誤りを燻蒸消毒（fumigate）するためのプロトコルを公布（promulgate）することに躊躇せず、その姿勢は偽情報の専制政治（tyranny）に対抗するための最後の手段（recourse）として、科学の系譜（lineage）を守るためのものでした。
また、隠された影響力を粉砕（shatter）する決意のもと、委員会は憂慮する市民からの正式な嘆願（petition）を補完（complement）する形で受け入れ、まるで声帯（vocal cords）が一つになって医療不正の災厄（scourge）に立ち向かうかのようでした。厳しい戒告（admonition）とともに、学際的なチームを溶接（weld）して結成し、この旅路（odyssey）の感動的な瞬間（poignancy）を取り戻し、真実への容赦ない（ruthless）取り組みを体現（typify）することを決意しました。たとえ浮浪者（vagabond）のような批評家が、既存の事実に対する否定（negation）を唱え、支持者の決意を青ざめさせ（blanch）ようと試みても、委員会は発見の中心（navel）のような明確な（unequivocal）洞察をもたらす（fetch）ことを約束し、その知識を新たに授ける（bestow）意志を示しました。一部の人々は懐疑論で研究を刺す（stab）一方、代替理論を抑圧する（stifle）ことに気が進まない（loath）と主張しましたが、学界での高血圧（hypertension）の高まりは現代研究の公理（axiom）となり、付随する（collateral）リスクも現実のものとなりました。狡猾なイタチ（weasel）のような手法でさえ、違法な密輸品（contraband）実験に対する懸念を和らげる（assuage）ことはできませんでした。代わりに、チームは古いアイデアと新しい理論との間の深淵（chasm）を埋めるための骨の折れる（strenuous）取り組みを開始し、その一歩一歩が刻印（notch）となり、乳酸（lacticacid）研究の記録に刻まれていきました。用心深い（circumspect）分析と共謀（collusion）への断固たる拒否は、彼らの自然なカリスマ性（charisma）を一層際立たせる結果となったのです。
Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う
OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.
I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.
Refining odds
I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.
Piecingtogether speculative odds
I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.
Piecingtogether
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.
Assessingcivilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.
Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?
Earth’s Example:
OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).
Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.
LHS 1140 b:
Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.
All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue
OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.
The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:
The equationis usually writtenas:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.
𝐿
L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.
Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.
The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:
Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for
𝑁
N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.
The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-humanintelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.
I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.
Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う
OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.
I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.
Refining odds
I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.
Piecingtogether speculative odds
I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.
Piecingtogether
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.
Assessingcivilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.
Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?
Earth’s Example:
OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).
Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.
LHS 1140 b:
Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.
All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue
OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.
The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:
The equationis usually writtenas:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.
𝐿
L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.
Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.
The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:
Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for
𝑁
N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.
The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-humanintelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.
I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.
とりあえず、CDCといくつかの国などのデータ見たけど、ワイが最後にチェックした、1年半くらい前とあんま状況は変わっていなさそう
コピペすんの面倒だから、CDCだけにするけど、変異株にも効果有りで54％となってて、他でも似た様なもんだから、
やっぱ、壁の効果はあるんじゃない？(ワイはこれからも打たんけど)
Thevirus that causesCOVID-19willcontinue to evolve
Forviruses tosurvive they must continuallymake copies of themselves and infect new cells.Like otherviruses,SARS-CoV-2, thevirus that causesCOVID-19,willcontinue to evolve becauseitmakes errors, or mutations, whenitis creating copies. Some mutations help thevirussurvive better or spreadmore easily, leading to different variantsover time. During the analysis period, many different variants were infecting people.
(新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）の原因となるウイルスは進化し続けます
ウイルスが生存するためには、継続的に自己複製し、新しい細胞に感染する必要があります。他のウイルスと同様に、COVID-19を引き起こすSARS-CoV-2も、複製時にエラーや変異を起こすことで進化を続けます。一部の変異はウイルスの生存や拡散を容易にし、時間とともに様々な変異株を生み出します。分析期間中、多くの異なる変異株が人々に感染しました。)
UpdatedCOVID-19 vaccine protects against many variants
CDC data show that vaccination offered significant protection. Peoplewho received the updatedCOVID-19 vaccine were 54% lesslikely togetCOVID-19 during the four-month period frommid-September toJanuary. The vaccine provided similar levels of protection against XBBlineage variants and the JN.1 variant.
To estimate vaccine effectiveness of the updatedCOVID-19 vaccine,CDC analyzed data from the Increasing CommunityAccess to Testing (ICATT)COVID-19 pharmacy testing program. The protection providedby the updated vaccinewas compared to not receiving an updated vaccine, regardless of a person’s infectionhistory or thenumber of previousCOVID-19 vaccines they received. That means these estimates reflect the additional protection providedbygetting an updatedCOVID-19 vaccine dose above protection that people have fromany previous vaccination, infection, or both.
(新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）ワクチンは多くの変異株に対して保護を提供します
CDCのデータによると、ワクチン接種は大きな予防効果をもたらしました。最新のCOVID-19ワクチンを受けた人々は、9月中旬から1月までの4ヶ月間にCOVID-19に感染するリスクが54％低下しました。このワクチンは、XBB系統やJN.1変異株など、多くの変異株に対して同様の保護レベルを提供しました。
最新のCOVID-19ワクチンの有効性を推定するために、CDCはICATTCOVID-19薬局検査プログラムのデータを分析しました。 最新のワクチンによる保護効果は、最新のワクチンを受けていない人々と比較されました。これは、個人の感染歴や以前に受けたCOVID-19ワクチンの回数に関わらずです。つまり、これらの推定値は、以前のワクチン接種や感染から得られる保護に加えて、最新のCOVID-19ワクチン接種によって提供される追加の保護を反映しています。)
COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness｜February 1, 2024, 1:05PM EDT｜CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness.html
古いタブレットにOS入れ替えて戦える端末にしようとか・・考えたこと。子どもがロボットのprogrammingやりたいって言いだしたらどうする？
LINEインストしようとおもうと、kiwiブラウザかなにかのエクステンションを導入する必要ある。その他、いろいろなandroidアプリがインストールできない。
最新のOSをたのしめる。LinuxMintとかだと動作が軽いといわれている。MakeCodeはどうなんだ？Webブラウザーから、MakeCodeオンラインにアクセス
って言うてるなぁ。べつにOSは、なんでもいいってことか？
パソコン用LINEアプリもあるしという点は悪くないけど、たしかに現在このタブレットはWin10だ。ただ32ビットだ。SoCが64ビットに対応してないのか？
MakeCodeは、いけるはず
Androidをタブレットに入れようと思うと、manifestファイルをかく必要。どこかの誰かがmanifestファイル書いてない限り現実的に無理ゲー。
LINEはスマホ側でアカウントとられてるので、LINEインストしようとおもうと、kiwiブラウザかなにかのエクステンションを導入する必要ある。
って言うてるなぁ。べつにOSは、なんでもいいってことか？
