はてなキーワード:Veryとは
スワロフスキーはン千万クラスのハイジュエリーの代替品だから、舞台立つ人とかじゃないとつけるシーンがなさそう。「持つ喜び」はあるとは思うけど。
300円ショップと、ブランドアクセの違いはデザイン性と細工の丁寧さだよ。
そのブランドがすごい好きでデザインに惚れたら買ってもいいけど、モノとしての価値はどうだろうね。
ジュエリーを地金の価値とくっついてる石の価値だと考えると、有名ブランドになればなるほど、良い場所で売れば売るほど原価に上乗せした上代がついてる
とはいえ庶民が買える値段のジュエリーなんて、そんなに価値があるものでもないのだから、ブランド名が価値だと考えるならまあそれはそれでいいと思うけど
いずれにしても、気に入って毎日つけて、そのアクセサリーがあって自分の外見が完成するぐらいまで行くならプライスレスだとも思わなくはない
で、最近は地金が高騰してるから、サージカルステンレス使ったデザイン性高いブランドが増えてるし普段遣いにはけっこうおすすめ
有名ブランドのパクリみたいのも多いけど、パクリはパクリで良く出来てる
ネックレスだとバレると思うけど、ピアスなら絶対バレない。人の耳元をしげしげと見たりはしないし。
本物もってるけどヴァンクリのスウィートアルハンブラもどきのピアス良くつけてる。本物落としたら泣くし。本物持ってるから偽物でもいいか、みたいな変な感じになってる。
あと、VERY妻界隈でハイブランドの地金リングたくさんつけるの流行ってるけど、本物と偽物混ぜたらあんまりわからんなと思った
J.D.ヴァンス米副大統領の、ミュンヘン安保会議 (2025/2024)での発言 -山形浩生の「経済のトリセツ」 202 users cruel.hatenablog.com政治と経済
https://cruel.org/candybox/JDvanceMunich2025_j.pdf
”(注: 書き起こしは以下から取ったがYouTube に上がっている実際の演説を聴いても遺漏はない。https://thespectator.com/topic/read-jd-vance-full-speech-decay-europe/ )”
ーーとあるが、thespectator.comのテキストデータは「要登録」なので他を探そう
”(訳注:この演説のほぼ当⽇に、ミュンヘンで難⺠申請中のアフガン移⺠が⾞でデモ隊に突っ込んで数⼗
⼈を負傷させたテロ事件のことを指している)”
https://www.bbc.com/japanese/articles/ckgrjl6n68xo 日本語ニュースはこれなど
ttps://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/13/europe/munich-car-hits-people-intl/index.html
”Iwas struck that a formerEuropean commissioner wentontelevision recently and sounded delighted that theRomanian government had just annulled an entire election.”
”(訳注:2024 年にルーマニア憲法法廷が、⼤統領選第⼀次投票が外国の介⼊で歪んで右派のジョルジェ
スク候補が優位だったのを無効にした話。これに対して元欧州委員のティエリー・ブレトンがそれを歓迎
する発⾔をした)”
ルーマニア大統領選事件 はWIKIPEDIA で項目が立っているttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accusations_of_Russian_interference_in_the_2024_Romanian_presidential_election
ttps://rmc.bfmtv.com/actualites/international/on-l-a-fait-en-roumanie-thierry-breton-reagit-aux-ingerences-de-musk-en-allemagne-avec-l-afd_AN-202501090232.html
Thierry Bretonがルーマニア大統領選に関して述べたのはこれ(フランス語)
ttps://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-10-2025-000150_EN.html#def1
パブコメ投書箱的なところで、「元とは言え欧州委員がこう言ってるんだがお前ら欧州委員会はそれについてどう思ってるんじゃい」という投書も
「2025年1月9日、元欧州委員会委員ティエリーブレトンはフランスのテレビチャンネルRMCストーリーに、ドイツのAfD党がドイツの選挙で勝利した場合、ルーマニアで行われた‘と同様に、欧州連合によって破棄される可能性があると語った。彼は言った[1]。
2025年1月12日、何千人ものルーマニア人が選挙の無効化に抗議し、国家主権への攻撃と見なされたこの決定に対する不満を表明するためにブカレストの街を訪れました。
1。欧州委員会は、ドイツでの選挙の無効化の可能性に関するティエリーブレトンの発言を支持しますか?」
ttps://www.romaniajournal.ro/politics/ex-commissioner-breton-what-was-done-in-romania-may-be-needed-in-germany/
背景として知っておきたいのはティエリーブレトンとマスクは犬猿の仲、お互い口撃しあっている間柄ということ
ttps://www.brusselstimes.com/1388595/elon-musk-calls-former-eu-digital-chief-breton-tyrant-of-europe-tbtb
ttps://www.nli-research.co.jp/report/detail/id=80510
欧州委員会によるTikTok監査-ルーマニア選挙における外国勢力の干渉
ニッセイ基礎研究所保険研究部専務取締役研究理事 兼ヘルスケアリサーチセンター長
松澤 登
「欧州委員会は、選挙プロセス自体の適否はルーマニア国民が判断すべきことであり、欧州委員会の権能を超えるとしてその内容には干渉しないとする。ただし、DSA上で、特に巨大なプラットフォーム(Very largeonline platform、VLOP)に指定されているTikTokのルーマニア選挙における行為については、DSA違反かどうかの監視(monitoring)を強化するとした。」
EU公式には「気に食わないやつらが勝ったらバシバシその選挙を無効にしてやるぜぇ」などとは言っていない(当然)
というわけで、ティエリーブレトンの発言を象徴に欧州政治家全体を印象付ける言説には要注意
(続く)
Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う
OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.
I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.
Refining odds
I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.
Piecingtogether speculative odds
I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.
Piecingtogether
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.
Assessingcivilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.
Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?
Earth’s Example:
OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).
Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.
LHS 1140 b:
Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.
All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue
OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.
The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:
The equationis usually writtenas:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.
𝐿
L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.
Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.
The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:
Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for
𝑁
N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.
The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-humanintelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.
I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.
Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う
OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.
I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.
Refining odds
I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.
Piecingtogether speculative odds
I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.
Piecingtogether
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.
Assessingcivilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.
Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?
Earth’s Example:
OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).
Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.
LHS 1140 b:
Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.
All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue
OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.
The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:
The equationis usually writtenas:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.
𝐿
L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.
Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.
The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:
Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for
𝑁
N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.
The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.
Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-humanintelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.
I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.
私は年収500万円〜600万円の都内一人暮らしアラサーOL。
XやインスタのVERY妻っぽいアカウントのハイブランドバッグや華やかなジュエリーを眺めるのが好き。
女の中では稼いでいる方だけど、年収500万円の手取りって確か390万円くらいなんだよね。
積み立てNISAを月3万円。
idecoを月2万円。
会社の持株を月2万円。
こんな感じで貯蓄してるけど、それでも年間120万円しか貯められない。
しかも現金貯金以外はすぐに引き出せるお金じゃないから、気が気じゃ無い。通帳の預金残高は年間36万円ぽっちしか増えないんだ。
まあ1人で暮らす分には、食べるには困らない生活を送れるけど、ハイブランドのバッグやジュエリーなんかは夢のまた夢だなあ。
40万円以上する買い物を年に2〜3回できる(比較的)セレブ妻たちの世帯年収ってどれくらいなんだろう。
なんとなく2000万円以上は必要かなって予想してる。
私も耳にヴァンクリのヴィンテージアルハンブラやTASAKIのバランス、腕にはカルティエのパンテールやジャガー・ルクルトのレベルソ、指にはブシュロンのキャトルやシャネルのココクラッシュ、ロデオをつけたエルメスのピコタンを持ってyoriのお洋服着て高級ホテルのアフタヌーンティーとか行きたいわ。
現実は散らかった部屋の中でクーラーをガンガンにつけながら、スーパーで割引きになっていたカットスイカを食べている。
追記:金の話大好きだから良かったら皆年収や月の貯金額、投資額など書いていっておくれ
Permalink |記事への反応(19) | 11:28
Apple、結局ChatGPT乗せるんやなぁって
Sam Altman (@sama)
veryhappy to be partnering withapple to integrate chatgpt into their devices later this year!
(今年後半にApple と提携して ChatGPT を同社のデバイスに統合できることを大変嬉しく思います。
きっと気に入っていただけると思います。)
しかし、反AIの人たちはいよいよスマホ使用を辞めるのかね(ニコニコ☺️
まぁそういう意地悪はさておき、いままで属性の問題でAIやプログラムに触れてこなかった人たちが、いよいよ触れるようになる時代の到来です
ほんで日本はなんやかんや1億人もいるので、いろんなこと起きるやろなぁ
ランサムAIに聞いて作ったよーとか、銃をAIに聞いて作ったよーとか、フツーにもう出てるしね
防犯面では今のままでのようにうかうかはしてられない、仕事面では、えらい人が『あれ?これ人要らなくない?(名推理)』ってなるのだろうし、
ビックテックのAIの独占(学習データの独占)がますます加速するだろうけど、
御坊茶魔のキャラクターをGURPSシステムで表現する際に、有利な特徴と不利な特徴のバランスを取ることを目指し、キャラクターポイント(CP)の配分を考慮してみましょう。具体的な数値はGURPSの詳細なルールやゲームのバランスに依存しますが、一般的なアイデアを以下に示します。
- **特異体質 (Unusual Biochemistry):**金持ちになる体質など。+10CP。
- **交通手段 (Vehicle):** 亀に乗る特殊な移動手段。+5CP。
###スキルとその他の特徴
キャラクター作成時には、有利な特徴と不利な特徴のCPの合計が均衡または所定のキャラクターポイント制限内に収まるように調整することが重要です。このプロセスを通じて、御坊茶魔のような複雑で魅力的なキャラクターをGURPSで再現することが可能になります。
実際のゲームプレイでは、GM(ゲームマスター)や他のプレイヤーと相談しながら、このキャラクターがストーリーにどのようにフィットするか、またはキャンペーンのテーマにどのように寄与するかを検討することが有益です。
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結局、オレのインターネット力では、何がお前らを怒らせたんだか分からなかった。
❶ ryuchell の発信する父親像? が気に入らなくて炎上させて、
❷離婚した機会に喚き立てて、
一体どんなものだったのか…?
ログが消えてるのかgoogle で追跡しにくい場所にあるのか、見つけられなかった。
親の押し付けだとしても「社会から愛される子」に育てるべき? りゅうちぇるが目指す父親像 | Forbes JAPAN 公式サイト(フォーブス ジャパン)
唯一、気になったのは
りゅうちぇるさん「感謝されたいって甘えすぎじゃない?」【夫の家事育児】 | 子育て|VERY[ヴェリィ]公式サイト|光文社
「5歳・3歳・1歳の子どもがいて専業主婦の妻に疲れが見えるので、平日は朝食、週末は洗濯、風呂掃除、夕食を自分が担当し、妻が一人の時間を取れるよう子どもたちと外出もしています。自分なりにサポートしていますが、妻に感謝されることはなく、やって当たり前という態度。世の中も家事育児を頑張る男性に対し、認めるよりも要求がエスカレートしているようで納得がいきません」。
感謝されたいって甘えすぎじゃない?パパとしての心構えが足りないのでは
40代だと自分の父親があまり家事をしない世代なので、自分は手伝ってあげてる感覚があるかもしれないけど、それは大きな勘違い。あなたのおうちではママが家庭を回してくれるおかげで自分は堂々と仕事ができてるわけだし、その代わり自分ができる時はやるのが当たり前なんだって頭を切り替えるべき。あと、心のどこかで、自分は他のパパより頑張ってるって思ってない?なんで比べるの?自分の子も他人と比べるの? そうやって比べてると、子どもも真似するようになっちゃうからやめたほうがいい。要は、自分はこんなにやってあげてるのにっていう気持ちが全部ママにバレてるんですよね。
そもそも子育ては仕事と違って報酬がないもので、やって当たり前。ママはその覚悟で毎日頑張ってる。感謝や労いの言葉は大事だけど、言われたいならもっと自分から言えばいいんです。
…この回答が気に食わなかったのか?
一般的には、匿名に対して記名の有名人に、しかも絶対的な善人として名高い人に、悪とみなされて攻撃されると一撃で凄まじいダメージを受ける恐れがある。だから多人数で擁護する必要はある。
でも ryuchell の論理自体はフェミニズム的に見るとむしろ当然の理論だと思う。
父親としての当たり前の甲斐性。男の甘え。女性にケア役割を求めるズルさ。
まあ、「自分は他のパパより頑張ってると思ってない?なんで比べるの」とかママに十分に感謝を伝えてないだろう、とかは、根拠のない想像だと思うけど。
だけどそれなら、その時に指摘すればいいだけ。
この程度、匿名ダイアリーの「お前説教」とか人気ブックマーカーのクソバイスでよくあるレベル。
やっぱり、なにか他に、怒らせるような事を言ったんじゃないか。
離婚なんて当事者の問題なのに、それで他人が怒るのも意味がわからないし。
Permalink |記事への反応(11) | 19:39
原文
Japanreviewit's been a year since I
moved toJapan and I thoughtitmade
sense to finallyrateJapanI willtalk
about things Ilike and the things I
don'tlike which seems to be theonly
two options available ifyou have
actually really badit'sgot a lot of
survivalissues okayI will listone
good thing and bad thing andI will not
hold back there's no trash bins
I have to put in mypocket
oh
there'salways thesegeneric things that
you hear oryes when weyou visitit's
kind ofweird but thenyourealizeit's
not abig dealanywaylet's start off
withnumberonereason IlikeJapan
itfeelslike agiant playground no I
don't mean in the LoganPaul kind of
sense of doing whatever thehellyou
want
but rather there's ainfinite thingsall
rightlazyfeelslike to explore and
experience and I've beenhere a yearnow
and Idon't think I'mgonnaget bored
anytime soon although Iam having a
child so Idon't know how muchmore I
butit reallyfeelslike awhole new
world and ifyou visitedyou can
probably relate toit and I'm glad that
even a year initstillfeels incredibly
fresh and I even would say thatyou
realize that the best part ofJapan
aren't the touristyplaces kind of
obviously but there are somany areas
that Ifound that I really enjoy
visiting and thisis probablymore
specific to me butyou knowTokyois
very busy and somanytimes I justcatch
myself surroundedby whatfeelslike
hundreds of people and they have noidea
everyoneis just doing their own thing
nowonceitwas staringat me noone's
following me noone'sbeingweirdyou
guys areweird and I'm justkidding I
justlovethe feeling ofbeing able to
exist in public and uh not worrying
about what everyone elseis doinglike
I've said this before but I genuinely
enjoytalking to fans or when people
approach meitalwaysmakes mehappy but
it can be kind of frustrating toalways
wanting to just doyour own thing and
always be
you know so yeahlet'smove on to the
bad things ofJapannumberonereason
Japanis badit's kind of a heavy
subject and Ihaven't seenanyone else
reallytalk aboutitit's not brought up
very oftenatleast and thatis cones
there's toomany cones inJapanonceyou
seeityou cannot unseeit they're
everywhere they sayoh Japanhas somany
vending machines there'slikefiveper
there'smore cones than peoplewhy are
there somany cones Ineed to know we
got the tallones wegot the smallones
wegot thefunnyones the cuteones the
sexyones I dolike those I justdon't
understand thatwhoever plays these
cones think I'm justgonna barge through
otherwise I had noidea what Iwasgonna
and Irealized the conehistory ofJapan
stretches centuries okay ifyou played
Animal Crossing sometimesit's a
Japanese game so sometimesyouget these
items rightyou'relike oh that's kind
ofweird Idon't know exactly what that
is butit's probablysomethingJapanese
and thenyouget thebamboo thing and
you'relike what thehellis that what
am I evengonna dowith that and then
you seeit in reallifehere inJapan
you'relike holy [ __ ]it's a cone that's
Ifeellike they are following me
I'm glad Iwas able totalk about this
I'm forone andwilling to callout
Japan knockit offmanno more cones
there's enough coneslet me tellyou
something even better than conesyoumay
have noticed new merch finallyit's been
unofficial merge because I literally
have no other merch I've hadn't hadn't
merch I'msorryMom so we spruced up the
logogot acool back design the team
understand how my brand and I think they
did such agood job thesepieceslook
amazing and I thinkyou guys aregonna
reallylike themas well these are
available for limitedtimeonly somake
sureyou ordernow so excited to finally
have this merch availablethanks to
amaze for making this happen we are
gonna haveonepiece thatwillstayon
the store so mymomwill not buy the
wrong merch but for a limitedtime that
piecewill be available in thiscolor
off-white kind ofcoloritlooks really
nice and then after thatyou canstill
getit but not in thiscolor that's
so yeah check thatout ifyou're
interested I'm sohappy about these
designs and Ihopeyou guys wouldlike
themas wellall rightreasonnumbertwo
IlikeJapan yay when we first announced
that we weregonnamove toJapan there
was somany people just saying how bad
Japanis actuallydidyou knowJapanis
really baddidyou know this I have to
listall thesereasonsnow because
everyoneislike thing and then thing
Japan ah so I have to tell them and I
particular that people saidwas that old
people reallydon'tlike foreigners they
hate them so when Iwasgonna stopby to
say hi to our neighborswhowas alittle
olderatleast some of them Iwas
terrifying I heardall these storiesyou
knowlike what are theygonna do to us
so I had my guard up ready for theworst
and Iwas met withnothing but kindness
and welcoming and Ifeltlike atotal
dick for having this preconceivedideas
and just a side commentlikeyes there
are definitely probably people that
don'tlike foreignersand all that stuff
but Irealized I shouldlet my own
experienceis dictate how Ifeel about
certain thingsmaybe that's just
ignoring a problem Idon't knowit just
feelslikeit's a bad way to approach
life ifyoualways have anegative
expectationyou knowit's smiling people
smiled back
thankyou sometimes theydon't and
that's okayyou knowanyway mypoint
beingJapanese people are very in my own
experience
are very nice and friendly the majority
atleast andyes even to foreigners I
feellike they are especially nice to
foreigners because they think we'relike
akidlostat Disneyland orsomething
I justasked for directions Ididn't
needyou to walk me forhalf an hour to
this specific place Iwasgoing but
thankyou Iappreciateit a lot oftimes
Igo boulderingalone and there'salways
other groups of peoplebeing supportive
and yellinglike I'm about therelikego
youcan doit Iloveit Ithink it's
greatyou know or ifyou're small
talking with people people generally
want to communicatewith you and Ilove
having thosemoments but of course
there'stimes where people arelike oh
you're a foreigner Idon'tfeellike
even trying
whichagainit'sfine speaking of which
reason Idon'tlikeJapannumbertwo
their language
I havelivedhere for a year and I'm not
fluent inJapanese
Iam dumb Iam very dumb I remember the
moment wemovedhere I had studied some
Let'stestout this knowledge that I
have acquiredlet'sgo I'm justgonna
come init'sgonna be dangerous andyou
enter a store for the firsttime and
they'relike
what
what oh
what the classicthe mostcommon
experiences thatyou have aren't
necessarily whatyou're taught in the
textbook yayI know I think that's the
same foranyonelearning a language for
the firsttime butdon't evenget me
startedon the kanjimain what the [ __ ]
is this IfeellikeJapaneseis such a
hard language obviously but Idon't
think peoplerealize how harditisat
least mepersonally because themoreyou
learn themoreyourealizeyoudon't
know [ __ ]
consideredone ofthe most difficult
languages and becauseit's just so
different I listeditas bad because
thatwas my first kind of experience
withit cominghere but themore I
interact with people themoreitfeels
like I'm unlocking new skillsyou know
oh Imade a phone call for the first
time oh I couldasksomeoneover the
phoneI knowbig deal butit'slike oh I
can actually do that or even just having
a small tinyyes shittiest conversation
with a strangerit'sstillsomething and
itfeelsgoodyou start toall of a
sudden understandyou know a movie if
you're watching oh I understand actually
what'sgoingonhere or I can play games
and kind ofget what this they're saying
I have tolook upwords obviously but to
meall those new experiences thatit
unlocks to meis very rewarding even
thoughit's such a challenge I would
actuallynow sayit's agood thing I
thingall along but I obviously have a
andit just Idon'tthink itwilldamage
timereasonnumber three IlikeJapan
thisisnothing to do withJapan to say
it'smore related to me taking amore
relaxed approach toYouTube for my
entire 20s Ididnothing butYouTube
thatwasmy life and that's okay but I
probablyyou know if Iwasn't making
videos I sureashellwas thinking about
making videos I uploaded videos during
anditfeels reallygood to finally be
free fromityou know and I can discover
other things inlife there are other
things inlife
a new hobbies and interest that I've
always wanted to do Ican do and have so
muchfun withit surfingI know I would
love forthe longest time and I finally
get todo it andit's so [ __ ]amazing
Ilovelearning new thingsanything that
isn't necessarilyconnected toall of
something I'm very very grateful that I
discovered so yeahit's not reallyJapan
I could havedone thatanywhere butit's
largelywhy I enjoyed so muchhere
reason Idon'tlikeJapannumber three
thisis probablythe most trickiestone
andit's the rules what are the rules
Japanhas somany rules andit's abit
conflicting for me to complain about
because a lot of the best stuff about
Japan not the best stuff but a lot of
the reasonswhyJapan works so wellis
because of the rulesyou know thetrains
arealwaysontime things just work in
generalit's hard to explainthe streets
areclean people aren't loud in public
and soon and these are sort of societal
rules thatmakeit happenmore orless
but sometimes There are rules that just
don'tmakeanysense and I have no
problem following rulesas longas I
understandthe reason forityou know
don'ttalkon the phoneon thetrain
becauseit's generally annoying when
other people do that toyou A lot ofit
is just be thoughtful of other people
it's not just aboutyou and that just
makesitmore pleasant for everyone but
one ruleis especially which Italked
about beforeisthe fact that because of
kovid I'm notallowed to be in the
delivery room for our baby formore than
two hours that's because of covered
rulesit just doesn'tmakesense to me
and I tell people about thislike uh
family andfriends and they'realways
like wellwhydon'tyou justask them or
likewhydon'tyoutalk to them I'm sure
you can there'sgot to besomewhere and
it'slike noit'sJapan okay there are
rules and people follow the rules for
better or worseyou know so themore I