■アメリカのH-1Bビザ相当の各国の制度を調べてみた

言うてもAIに調べさせたのをまとめただけなんだけど。

正しいかどうかは分からんけどこんな感じ。

• 高度人材に対する学歴や職歴、年収要件でフィルタしてビザを出す制度はわりとどこも持っている。
  • 日本もHSPビザというものがあり、要件は、修士以上の学歴+年収800万以上+その分野でのフルタイム就労経験10年以上が最低限で許可と結構厳しい。若い人は修士卒であれば年収少なくても日本語能力と政策的加点をとればなんとかなるが、40歳以上は実質800万円以上の年収が必須。ただしこの条件を満たすと3年以内に永住権が採れる。永住権前提の仕組み
  • アメリカのH-1Bビザの要件は、抽選であることを除けば結構緩め。年収要件もたしかに緩い。で、降ってわいたのがトランプ手数料。年収相場を下げたいからこれなんだろうなとは。
• 受け入れ実績はアメリカが上限ありとはいえ圧倒的に多そう。

で、トランプが何を目指しているのか見えてきた。米国人に高年収のポストを回すと同時に、企業が高価格でも取りたいと言う生産性の高い（沢山税金を払う）連中だけを選抜して入れたいんだな。

それには、学歴でフィルタすると社会的に必要だが年収が安い連中が入ってきてトランプ的にはそいつら嫌いだろうし、年収でフィルタすると結局外国人に払う給料が上がって米国人がそこのポストに就けるのがより難しくなるからこれをやったわけだ。

ただ、日本やその他の国の例を見ると、素直に総合的にカウントするポイント制（学歴だけあっても、金だけあってもダメ、みたいな）にすりゃいいのにって思うんだが、そこは細かい制度を作るより金で解決する方がシンプルって考え方なんかな。

穴だらけで上手くいくとは思えないけど。ここだけ治しても、ある日突然ブルーワーカーがRust使える用になるわけじゃないし。

数字編

| |

Permalink |記事への反応(1) | 12:09

ツイートシェア

■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart

ChatGPT

Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluatingplanetary prospects

OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.

Identifying potential candidates

I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.

Assessing potential candidates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.

Assessing habitablezones

I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revisiting exoplanet options

I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.

Refining odds

I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.

Clarifying speculativenature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.

Mappingout speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessinglikelihoods

I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.

Piecingtogether speculative odds

I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.

Piecingtogether

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.

Assessingcivilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.

Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIST-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIST-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIST-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?

Earth’s Example:

OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIST-1 System (e, f, g):

Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.

LHS 1140 b:

Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.

AFinalNote

All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use

ChatGPT

Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.

The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:

The Drake Equation

The equationis usually writtenas:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

​

×n

e

​

×f

l

​

×f

i

​

×f

c

​

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

​

: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.

𝐿

L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.

Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Somefactors,like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formationrate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.

Highly SpeculativeFactors:

The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

, and

𝐿

L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:

Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for

𝑁

N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.

Heuristic, Not Predictive:

The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-humanintelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.

Piecingtogether possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.

Reflectingon potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallelevolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.

Evaluatinglife exploration

I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.

Adapting the equPermalink |記事への反応(0) | 21:12

ツイートシェア

■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart

ChatGPT

Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluatingplanetary prospects

OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.

Identifying potential candidates

I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.

Assessing potential candidates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.

Assessing habitablezones

I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revisiting exoplanet options

I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.

Refining odds

I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.

Clarifying speculativenature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.

Mappingout speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessinglikelihoods

I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.

Piecingtogether speculative odds

I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.

Piecingtogether

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.

Assessingcivilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.

Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIST-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIST-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIST-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?

Earth’s Example:

OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIST-1 System (e, f, g):

Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.

LHS 1140 b:

Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.

AFinalNote

All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use

ChatGPT

Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.

The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:

The Drake Equation

The equationis usually writtenas:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

​

×n

e

​

×f

l

​

×f

i

​

×f

c

​

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

​

: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.

𝐿

L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.

Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Somefactors,like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formationrate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.

Highly SpeculativeFactors:

The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

, and

𝐿

L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:

Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for

𝑁

N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.

Heuristic, Not Predictive:

The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-humanintelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.

Piecingtogether possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.

Reflectingon potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallelevolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.

Evaluatinglife exploration

I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.

Adapting the equPermalink |記事への反応(0) | 21:12

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■[多文化共生][ホワイトフライト]移民・難民で治安が悪化した欧米

西洋のお馬鹿政治家が、移民・難民政策で西洋の治安を悪化させた！

吉田松陰「外に媚び、内を脅かす者は、天下の賊である」

ナポレオン「真に恐れるべきは有能な敵ではなく無能な味方である」

欧州｢移民受け入れ｣で国が壊れた4ステップ

toyokeizai.net/articles/-/256915

エマニュエル・トッドが緊急提言　外国人労働者受け入れにあたって日本が注意すべき『6つの過ち』

bunshun.jp/articles/-/11918

文明の衝突 -Wikipedia

w.wiki/4kQd

西洋の自死:移民・アイデンティティ・イスラム -Wikipedia

w.wiki/AmDx

西洋の自死

移民の受け入れに批判的な政治家や知識人に対しては、

「極右」

「人種差別主義者」

「排外主義者」

といった烙印を押して

公の場から追放

tinyurl.com/seiyo-no-jishi

「米国発」の急進左翼にノン？　フランスで大論争　ピケティ氏も参戦

イスラム左翼の特徴は、

相手の言論の封殺。

「植民地主義者」「差別論者」とみなした標的に、

ネットやデモで猛烈な抗議を仕掛け、

発言の場を奪う。

www.sankei.com/article/20210228-KOI2BBMMIBJC7LEBBIPSYZ6G3Q/

寛容のパラドックス

「もし社会が無制限に寛容であるならば、その社会は最終的には不寛容な人々によって寛容性が奪われるか、寛容性は破壊される」

「寛容な社会を維持するためには、社会は不寛容に不寛容であらねばならない」

w.wiki/3eAN

報道しない自由

x.com/martytaka777/status/1772957137209290806

亡命申請者を最も多く受け入れている地域で

性犯罪が500％増加し、

ストーカー行為やハラスメントも6000％近く増加している事を

訴えるイギリスの青年。

そして更に彼は言った。

『英国はこの情報を公表しようとしない。』

強盗・窃盗

フランスでは移民ギャングがバスの乗客を強盗する新たな方法を見つけた

https://x.com/V_of_Europe/status/1019586815135805440

移民強盗、背後から女性を殴りバッグを奪う

x.com/AshleaSimonBF/status/1818376081100927138

アフリカの携帯電話窃盗団が今月7台目の携帯電話を盗む。

イギリス警察はこれに対して何をしているのでしょうか?

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1824374202167660703

スペイン、移民3人が刃物で刺したり、殴ったりしています。スマホ強盗？

x.com/Klaus_Arminius/status/1559808254573682689

スペイン、刃物強盗に刃物で対抗しています

x.com/AfricanHub_/status/1796199670135362019

フィレンツェでは、91 歳のイタリア人がアフリカからの不法移民に真っ昼間に殴打され、強盗に遭いました。

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1712687314416148617

不法移民が老人や障害者を強盗

x.com/BFirstParty/status/1784991249977512003

家屋侵入

アフリカ移民が窓を割って侵入

https://x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1822174372888494178

スウェーデン、白昼、移民系の男がナイフ持参で家に侵入

x.com/qsfkbwIhuWLhnjI/status/1790227657315238150

x.com/TRHLofficial/status/1698897790082994266

europeanconservative.com/articles/news/migrant-in-swedish-viral-home-break-in-video-sentenced-to-two-years/

道端ジェシカ・バトン夫妻、クーラーの室外機から麻酔ガス強盗で5800万円相当被害

4knn.tv/jessica-michibata-with-anesthetic-gas-bandits/

放火

ニューヨーク地下鉄で罪のない女性に火をつけた男

https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1870962656959692945

NY地下鉄で焼死した人は29歳の女性看護師だった。

彼女は別の看護師が移民に殺害された事件で、犯人への恩赦に抗議する活動に参加し脅迫を受けていた。

彼女を焼死させた輩は1週間前から彼女をストーキングしており計画的犯罪の可能性も。

移民恩赦に反対すると〇される社会。

x.com/martytaka777/status/1872055830818013575

「全部燃やしてやる！」

イタリアにいる偽のアフリカ人亡命希望者は

不満でガソリンスタンドに火を放った。

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1858770081167155573

リーズで移民がバスを燃やしている。

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1814195933959065680

強姦・性的暴行

ノルウェーで増えるレイプ犯罪　移民問題

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV76_miTgBI

スウェーデンのレイプ事件まとめ 2023/1/3

https://alic152.blog123.fc2.com/blog-entry-2910.html

移民の楽園スウェーデン、強制性交率で世界上位に…実行犯の半数以上が「移民系」と判明[海外の反応]

foreignnews.biz/archives/post-190295.html

2015年ストックホルムの夏のフェスティバルでの性的暴行事件

2014年と2015年の8月にストックホルムで開かれたフェスティバルにて、アフガニスタンからの難民らがスウェーデンの若い女性を取り囲み性的暴行を加えた。

w.wiki/986d

ケルン大晦日集団性暴行事件

アラブ人・北アフリカ人を主体とした1,000名以上の男によって女性に対する集団性的暴行・強盗事件が繰り広げられた。

警察は性的暴行、強盗による女性からの被害届が516件

w.wiki/4V4D

ロザラム児童性的搾取事件 -Wikipedia

ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/ロザラム児童性的搾取事件

つきまとい、略取、誘拐

偽のアフリカ人亡命希望者は、

アイルランドの愛国者によって

救出された若いアイルランド人女性を

虐待しようとしている。

これがあなたの子供たちに望むヨーロッパですか?

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1850854476178936262

若い白人少女が連れ去られようとしている。

勇敢な女性が少女を救った実録映像だ。

https://x.com/martytaka777/status/1766267861197320387

ヨーロッパの若い女の子たちはもはや安全ではありません。その理由は誰もがよく知っています。

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1848697804614430998

アイルランドの少女たちは、もう夜に安心して歩くことができません。

イ●ラ●教の移民たちが彼女たちの後をつけ回しているからです。

もうたくさんです。

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1823758796793196733

娘を尾行されたアイルランドの母親は、移民に詰め寄った。

しかし、移民は母親にも暴力を振るう。

日本でも既に、同じことが起きている。

x.com/martytaka777/status/1773003765324697924

暴行！傷害！移民と共生できる？！

移民による連続攻撃

歩いている白人女性の顔面を殴る移民、別の移民が背後から飛び蹴り

https://x.com/qsfkbwIhuWLhnjI/status/1815872965223047396

白人女性の顔面を複数回殴打、背後から首を締める移民

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1721580649818067143

白人女性の顔面を複数回殴打

x.com/LaurenWitzkeDE/status/1851468620527734827

ドイツで白人カップルを襲撃する移民集団

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1828061287512781053

移民の凶悪犯2人組が白人カップルを襲撃

x.com/AntiWhiteWatch1/status/1817693120135393758

50人のアフリカ移民の集団が15歳のイギリス人女子生徒を残酷に襲撃した。

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1829035193363054626

クルド難民がイギリス人をホームから線路に突き落とす

x.com/TRobinsonNewEra/status/1818637534315847873

英国バーミンガムで、家族を守ろうとした父親が、3人のイミン系の若者に首を刺された。

x.com/martytaka777/status/1827625806706962798

ナイフを振り回す移民の集団がスペインのビルバオで父親と赤ん坊を襲撃。

x.com/Klaus_Arminius/status/1681803250276638722

イタリアのミラノ

切符を見せろと言った車掌の腕を刃物で切断した。

x.com/vismoglie/status/1853594415622762917

スコットランドのイースト・キルブライドで起きた

恐ろしいマチェテによる襲撃で、男性が片手を失った。

目撃者によると、襲撃者は外国人だったという。

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1825272496196604036

フランス：黒人移民がショッピングセンターの真ん中でマチェテで殴り合い

これが多文化主義と多様性が私たちの国々にもたらすものです。

x.com/Klaus_Arminius/status/1762443733646053507/video/1

スペインのスーパーマーケット、マチェテで脅して強盗する移民

x.com/AmyMek/status/1746103354315456970

スペインにいる偽のモロッコ人亡命希望者がナイフやマチェテの腕前を披露している。

x.com/darken96419/status/1800899899397116366

スペイン、両手にマチェテを持った移民ギャング

x.com/Klaus_Arminius/status/1623400002419580929

イスラム教徒移民の群れが剣やマチェテを持ってバーミンガムのマ●ド●ル●の外に待機している。

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1820504990999327002

シュトゥットガルトでは、いつもの容疑者がマチェテを持ってドイツ人を狩りに出かけます。

10年前まで、ヨーロッパではマチェテが何なのか知りませんでした。

その後、「亡命希望者」が教えてくれました。

x.com/PoliticsWWWeb/status/1784605802805817449/video/1

ドイツで、マチェテ（ macheteは、中南米 の現地人が使う 山刀 のスペイン語 による呼称）を振り回すアラブ移民

x.com/LMFireSystems1/status/1790107098929373359/video/1

スペイン人を次々と殴る移民

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1767915338962718761

スウェーデン人の女の子を面白半分に殴る。

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1770134475864691065

フランス、女性と女性の孫に暴行をする移民

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1791892816001446345

ドイツでは、アフリカからの移民が、寒くないかと尋ねた老女を殴打した。

x.com/GoldingBF/status/1822020264475160940

デンマークで移民が高齢女性を暴行している。

x.com/martytaka777/status/1759410164988629198

私たちは高齢者、女性、そして子供たちを守らなければなりません。

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1794993638906466651

欧州、移民のガキ達が老人を暴行

x.com/qsfkbwIhuWLhnjI/status/1708679923504939432

マフィア

クルド人マフィア -Wikipedia

ドイツ国内のクルド人マフィア・ギャングは、

ドイツの実業家を恐喝し、保護と引き換えに毎月税金を納めさせ、

「俺たちの方が数で勝っている 」と警察を脅すことさえあるという。

w.wiki/Apqa

Kurdishmafia -Wikipedia

w.wiki/Apqb

多文化共生

イタリアの亡命希望者が猫を調理。失われた文明。

x.com/RadioGenoa/status/1828864806998462816

アフリカ移民がフランスで食用として猫を屠殺した。

どう思いますか？

x.com/EuropeInvasionn/status/1815462198384488888

埼玉県川口市

野生の鳩を捕まえて羽を毟って其の後調理をする外国人

x.com/quee3935548/status/1767298364423700607

仏世論調査によると、１５～２４歳のイ●ラ●教徒のうち「宗教法は国の法より重要」と答えた人は５７％

tinyurl.com/houritsu

ドイツ判例

亡命トルコ、未成年の子供を持つ家族、男性の姉妹のPKK / YPGの疑い、偽造逮捕状の提出、証明書。

www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/Y-300-Z-BECKRS-B-2021-N-35315?hl=true

ドイツの判決「トルコのクルド人迫害を認定しない」【日本語訳】(12,000文字over) - 美桜

note.com/uruwashisakura/n/n2d43184a9ad2

アメリカ

1967年7月に

アフリカ系アメリカ人による大規模なデトロイト暴動が市内で発生して多数の死傷者を出し、

ホワイト・フライトは加速した。

w.wiki/AZJy

1967年7月23日、

アフリカ系アメリカ人を中心とする群衆と警察との間で

生じた小競り合いが瞬く間に拡大。

数千人規模に膨れ上がった暴徒が

市内の商店を襲撃、略奪放火を繰り返しながら

警官隊を攻撃しだした。

w.wiki/Ad6A

破産法適用

「犯罪都市」デトロイトを歩く

50年代の白人比率は80％を超えていたが、現在では完全に逆転し、80％超が黒人となっている。

tinyurl.com/detroit-white-flight

ドイツ

ドイツ人、移民危機から逃れるため「キリスト教国」ハンガリーに移住

www.ibtimes.co.uk/germans-move-christian-hungary-flee-migrant-crisis-1562217

｢難民ようこそ政策｣で治安が急激に悪化…警官殺害のアフガン移民を毅然と批判できないドイツ政府の大迷走

25秒の間に6人が重軽傷を負う大事件が発生

president.jp/articles/-/82683

埼玉では病院周辺にクルド人100人の異常事態。難民受け入れで「ナイフ犯罪」激増のドイツは近未来の日本か？

ドイツでは昨年、ナイフを使った犯罪が約2万件だった。毎日、ほぼ60件が起こっている計算だ。

www.mag2.com/p/news/582015

ドイツは移民流入で一変「においも10年前と違う」ハンガリー首相―【私の論評】ドイツの移民政策失敗から学ぶ日本の未来：治安悪化と文化喪失への警鐘

yutakarlson.blogspot.com/2024/06/10.html

ドイツは移民流入で一変「においも10年前と違う」ハンガリー首相

www.afpbb.com/articles/-/3525497

法を完無視｢アラブ系拡大家族｣にドイツ社会震撼

司法介入を拒否､不倫した人間を｢私刑｣で殺害

toyokeizai.net/articles/-/758850

もはやテロ…｢総勢50人の大家族が集まり病院で警察官と乱闘｣世界2位の移民大国ドイツで起きていること

マラミエ･クルド人の｢大家族犯罪｣はドイツ司法の｢想定外｣だった

president.jp/articles/-/83645

ドイツを悩ます「大家族犯罪」　法より「一家のおきて」重視で凶行や迷惑行為に関与

globe.asahi.com/article/15368196

スウェーデン

www.thetimes.com/world/article/teens-roam-streets-with-rifles-as-crime-swamps-sweden-q83g055k9

スウェーデンで犯罪が多発し、若者がライフルを持って街を徘徊する

2018年1月21日

スウェーデン第3の都市マルメの問題地域であるPermalink |記事への反応(4) | 09:11

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