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https://georgebest1969.typepad.jp/blog/2020/03/事実に誠意を.html
これが原文です。
外国から問い合わせが来ているけれども時間がなくて訳せないということで、DeepLの性能確認ついでにやってみました。
この私訳と岩田健太郎先生は無関係なのでよろしくお願いします。
訳された文章を原文と見比べ、翻訳で文章がおかしくなったところや慣用句は「必ず日本語側の文章をいじることで」できるだけ解消しました。
よって改変した文章だけをこちらに載せ、改変する必要がなかったところは段落番号しか載せていません。元文章は元ブログを当たってください。
英語に詳しいパーソンが精査していただけると幸いです。
1Most of what I'm about towriteis no different from what I've said anddone in the past. However, I have beenasked the same question repeatedly, so I wouldlike to reiterateit. We have received many inquiries from overseasas well, so we should have prepared the same content inEnglish, but due totime constraints, I'm afraid I'll have toskipit. This articleis designed to be read withoutbasic knowledge of infectious diseases and jargon, butitis rather difficult to understand. Please forgive me for that.
感想：「Chromeかなにかでそれぞれ母国語に訳してお読みいただけると幸いです。」がきれいさっぱり消えている。DeepLの自負心だろう。
2The fact that thenumber of COVID-19 reports inJapanis verylow compared to other countriesisattractingattention fromhomeand abroad.Isittrue?Ithas beenpointedout that thenumber oftestsis so small that wemay be misreading the actualnumber of infected people.
3 However, thispointis wrongat various layers. In the first place,Japandoes notaim to captureall thenumbers of COVID-19. Whetherit's administrativetesting or insured care, thestatebasicallyhas atestingstrategy in mind to diagnose, hospitalize, andisolate criticallyill patientswhoneed to be hospitalized.Itisnatural that they "haven't figureditout" and theydon't intend to. That's not a bad thing.Infact, the situationis the same in every country, large or small, and no country, whether inthe UnitedStates,Europe, orAsia,isaiming to "capturethe wholenumber.
感想：最後の文はなぜか他の文と一緒に入力すると訳してくれなかった。この文一つだけ入力すると訳してくれた。
よく考えると「多かれ少なかれ」は通じないだろうから直した方がよかった。なぜかDeepLに繋がらなくなったのでもう直せない。
WHOもそんなことは求めていない。もっとも、そのわりに日本は帰国者無症状者にPCRをやってみたり、無症状な検査陽性者を入院隔離させてみたり（軽症者は自宅じゃなかったの？）、プリンシプルにおいて首尾一貫していない。だから、「彼らがなにがやりたいか私たちはよくわからない」ので、人々は不安になる。リスコミにおける失敗と言えよう。
The WHOis notasking for such a thing. But instead,Japan givesPCR toasymptomatic returnees andisolatesasymptomatictest-positive people in hospital (wasn'tithome for people with minorillnesses?).Ithas not been coherent inits principles. So, peopleget anxious because "we're not sure what they want to do".It's a failure in the press.
感想：「なにがやりたいかよくわからない」に主語を付与する必要があった。リスコミがpressになった。よくわかったな。
「〜は自宅じゃなかったの？）、」の、が.になっているのがよくわからない。なぜかDeepLに繋がらなくなったのでもう直せない。
4 ThedifferencebetweenKorea andJapanis the "result" and not the "purpose". In SouthKorea, where thenumber of infected people had surged inone place, we had tofocuson inspections inand around thearea. If such a phenomenon (let's callit an overshoot) occurs inJapan, thenumber of inspectionswill increase. When the situationis different, arguingonlyon the basis of thenumber oftests without observing the situationislike trying to say, "Thatteam made 50 sliding tackles while thisteam madeonlyone," without watching afootball game. In games whereyoudon't have toslide (e.g., whenyou're in possessionthe wholetime), even 0timesisn't a "mistake," and of course 50timesisn't a mistake.
5 全数把握ができていない疾患など山のようにある。日本ではインフルエンザの「全数」把握はしておらず、定点観測である。疫学上、感染対策上、それで十分な情報が得られているからだ。日本で毎年風邪が何例発生しているか、正確に把握したデータはない。レセプトデータを見ればわかるじゃないか、というのも間違いで、なぜなら多くの風邪患者は（ぼくのように）受診せずに自然に治るまで待っている。医療に限らず、経済学でも政治学でもデータはサンプリングから母数を推定するのがほとんどで、「全数」は非効率的な状態把握法なのだ。
There are many diseases for which thetotalnumber of patientsis not known. InJapan, we do not have a "total"number of influenza cases, butonly a fixed-point observation. Because that's enough information, both epidemiologically and in terms of infection control. Thereis no accurate dataon how many cases of thecommoncold occur each year inJapan.It's also a mistake to say thatyou can tellby lookingat thereceipt data, because manycold patients (like me)don't see a doctor and wait until they are curednaturally. Notonly in medicine, but also in economics and political science, data aremostly basedonsampling to estimate populationnumbers, and "wholenumbers"is an inefficient way of grasping the situation.
感想：ちょこちょこ変えてある。日本語の文章が多少おかしくなっているのは勘弁してほしい。接続詞を適切に入れると格段に翻訳が正確になる。
6 We have not seen the devastation inJapanas inItaly,Spain orNew YorkCity. Thereis no medical collapse in a criticallyill patient, no use of the operating roomas anICU, no piling up of bodieson a skating rink with no place to put them. Even if the "numbers" are not known,itis afact that the current situation inJapan (includingTokyo)is much better controlled than in other countries.
7 Even so,youmay be interested in "Well, what about the actual situation? There are estimates. For example, Dr.Hiroshi Nishiura andhisgroup estimate that thenumber of mildillnesses inJapanmay be twice the reportednumber. Thecatchrateis 0.44, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.37-0.50.
8 Although the studywas basedon data fromChina, thereis no guarantee that theChinese COVID-19 demographicis the sameas theJapaneseone. Also, sincethe original studydid not includeasymptomatic patients or those with minorillnesses thatdid notrequire hospitalization, thenumber of infected patients estimatedon that basis would inevitably be an underestimate. Ifyou aremore paranoid,it's not unreasonable tobelieve that "theJapanese andChineseviruses are different because of the mutation" (although Idon't think so).
9 Thisdoes not diminish thevalue of thepaperitself. Themodel mustalways use existing parameters, anditis often impossible to provethe external validity of these parameters. If the underlying parameters are not reasonable, the predictionswill not be correct. Amodelassumes a simplified world insofarasitis amodel. Amodel without simplification, whichis an adjectival contradiction.
数理モデルのこうした「前提」にイチャモンを付けるのは、例えばAという疾患を対象にランダム化比較試験をしたときに、「Bという疾患については説明できないじゃないか」と文句を言うようなもので、業界の仁義に反する意味のない揚げ足取りである。
To complain about these "assumptions" of the mathematicalmodelislike complaining, for example, "You can't explain disease B," when a randomized controlledtrialis conducted for disease A. Thisis a meaningless tirade against the honor of the industry.
感想；「分からない」を「説明できない」に変えた。多分これでいいと思う。思いたい。
However,itis different for thereader of thepaper.
A mathematicalmodel thatassumes a certain hypothesis should have internal academic validity, butitis the responsibility of thereader,as a resident of the real world, to appraiseit in the real world.
Aという疾患を対象にしたRCTの知見をBという疾患に使ってはならないように、数理モデルの制限を理解し、現実世界にアプライするときに十分注意するのは当然だ。
Justas the RCT findings for disease A should not be used for disease B,itisnatural to understand the limitations of the mathematicalmodel and to be careful when applyingit to the real world. For example,it would be wrong to read thepaper and conclude that thetotalnumber of infected people inTokyois about 500as ofMarch 26.
感想；「読み手は別である」を「読み手にとっては別である」に変更し、「制限や限界」は「limitations and limitations」になったので片方削った。
11 Peoplemake mistakes. Themodels are also wrong.Being wrongis not abig deal. The problemis to noticeyour mistakes andmake corrections. Already, agroupat ImperialCollegeLondonhas admitted thatitsoriginal estimate that thepeak of the infection should be moderatedwas "wrong" andhas revisedits prediction that theICUwill soon fail ifitdoes notfight thevirus fairly aggressively.
その１https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20200327214055 12 Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura is one of the few professionals of mathematical models of infectious diseases in Japan, and it is well known that his ability is outstanding. However, many people don't unders...
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