Vladimir Isaacovich Keilis-Borok | |
|---|---|
| Влади́мир Исаа́кович Ке́йлис-Бо́рок | |
 Keilis-Borok in 2013 | |
| Born | 31 July 1921 |
| Died | 19 October 2013(2013-10-19) (aged 92) Culver City, California, U.S. |
| Other names | Volodya (nickname) |
| Known for | The Keys to the White House |
| Scientific career | |
| Fields | Mathematical geophysics |
| Institutions | International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics RAS,UCLA |
Vladimir Isaacovich Keilis-Borok (July 31, 1921 – October 19, 2013) was a Russianmathematical geophysicist andseismologist.[1]
Keilis-Borok was born inMoscow,Soviet Union. His father, Isaak Moiseevich Keilis, was a jeweler. His mother, Ksenia Ruvimovna Borok, was from Lithuania. Both were Jewish.[2]
In 1948, he received aPh.D. inmathematical geophysics from theAcademy of Sciences in Moscow. He was the founder, and Director Emeritus, of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow. He was elected to theAmerican Academy of Arts and Sciences (1969),Austrian Academy of Sciences (1992),US National Academy Sciences (1971),Pontifical Academy of Sciences (1994),[3]Russian Academy of Sciences (1988),Academia Europaea (1999), and theRoyal Astronomical Society (1989).
He served as the President,International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (1987–1991), Vice President,International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (1983–1987), Board Member and Chair of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Section,International Council of Scientific Unions (1988–1991), Founding Chairman,International Committee for Geophysical Theory and Computers (1964–1979), and Expert, Technical meetings on theNuclear Test Ban Treaty (1960–1990).
He was also a member of: Committee for International Security and Disarmament, Russian Academy of Sciences (1998–2000); The Union's Scientific Committee for the UN Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (1990–1999); International Working Group on the Geological Safety of Nuclear Waste Depositories (1994–1997).
He was awarded the First Lewis Fry Richardson Medal for exceptional contributions to non-linear geophysics (1998), a Doctor Honoris Causa,Institut de Physique du Globe, Paris, and the 21st Century Collaborative Activity Award for Studying Complex Systems, McDonnell Foundation.
His team of researchers used new algorithmic methods forearthquake prediction. Keilis-Borok's method has been retroactively applied to 31 cases dating back to 1989, with correlation 25 times (not including two near misses), including the Samoa area quake (September, 2009) and the Sumatra quake (September, 2009).
In 2003, he and his team predicted theSan Simeon (December 2003) andHokkaido (September 2003) earthquakes.[4]
In response to his prediction of an earthquake in California in 2005, US Geological Survey has said: "The work of the Keilis-Borok team is a legitimate approach to earthquake prediction research. However, the method is unproven, and it will take much additional study, and many additional trial predictions, before it can be shown whether it works, and how well."[5][6] TheCalifornia Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council determined, "To date there is no evidence that these, or related methods, yield useful intermediate term forecasts."[7] No earthquake occurred in the predicted location or time period.
Keilis-Borok, in collaboration withAllan Lichtman, used some of his techniques to createThe Keys to the White House, a presidential election prediction system. It has accurately predicted every United States presidential election since1984, with the exception of the2024 election and2000 election.[8]
Between 1998 and 2013, Keilis-Borok was a Regents' Professor, Professor, and Professor Emeritus at theUniversity of California, Los Angeles.[9] He was the research group leader at the International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics,Russian Academy of Science, and the Co-Director (and Founder) of the Research program on non-linear dynamics and earthquake prediction of theAbdus SalamInternational Center for Theoretical Physics,Trieste.[10]
He died inCulver City, California, on October 19, 2013.[1]
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