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Tornado climatology

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Climate factors contributing to the formation of tornadoes

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Areas worldwide with the highest frequency of tornadoes are indicated by orange shading.

Tornadoes have been recorded on all continents except Antarctica. They are most common in the middle latitudes where conditions are often favorable for convective storm development. The United States has the most tornadoes of any country, as well as the strongest and most violent tornadoes. A large portion of these tornadoes form in an area of the central United States popularly known asTornado Alley. Canada experiences the second most tornadoes.Ontario and thePrairie Provinces see the highest frequency. Other areas of the world that have frequent tornadoes include significant portions of Europe, South Africa, Philippines, Bangladesh, parts of Argentina, Uruguay, southern and southeastern Brazil, northern Mexico, eastern and western Australia, New Zealand, and far eastern Asia.

Tornado reports in the U.S. have been officially collated since 1950. These reports have been gathered by theNational Climatic Data Center (NCDC), based inAsheville, North Carolina. A tornado can be reported more than once, such as when a storm crosses a county line and reports are made from two counties. The severity of tornadoes is measured by theEnhanced Fujita Scale, which measurestornado intensity on a scale of EF0 to EF5 based on degree of destruction. The ratings are made after the tornado has dissipated and the damage trail is carefully studied by weather professionals. A series of continuous tornado outbreaks is known as atornado outbreak sequence.

Necessary conditions

[edit]

Not everythunderstorm,supercell,squall line, ortropical cyclone will produce a tornado. Precisely the right atmospheric conditions are required for the formation of even a weak tornado. Tornadoes can form in any month when conditions are favorable.[1][a] 1,000 or more tornadoes a year are reported in the contiguous United States. The high frequency of tornadoes in North America is largely due to geography, as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is easilyadvected into the midcontinent with few topographic barriers in the way. TheRocky Mountains block Pacific-sourced moisture and buckle theatmospheric flow, forcing the drier air to mid-levels of thetroposphere.[b] Downsloping winds off the Rockies force the formation of adry line when the flow aloft is strong, while theGulf of Mexico fuels abundant low-level moisture. This unique topography allows for frequent collisions of warm and cold air, the conditions that breed strong, long-lived storms throughout the year. This area extends into Canada, particularlyOntario and thePrairie Provinces. Tornadoes can also be triggered by hurricanes, although the tornadoes caused by hurricanes are often much weaker and harder to spot. Winter is the least common time for tornadoes to occur, since hurricane activity is virtually non-existent at this time, and it is more difficult for warm, moist maritime tropical air to take over the frigid Arctic air from Canada. Winter tornado occurrences are found mostly in theGulf states andFlorida (although there have been some notable exceptions).

South America's tornado corridor region is favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms due to the large size of the Pampas Plain where the cold, dry air from Patagonia, theAndes, and Antarctica collides with warm, moist air from areas of Brazil, northern Argentina, and Paraguay.[2]

Europe has some small "tornado alleys"—probably because offrontal collisions as in the south and east of England,[3] but also because Europe is partitioned by mountain ranges such as theAlps. ThePo Valley (Pianura Padana) is one of the areas that experiences more tornado activity than elsewhere on the European continent. Located in the heart of Europe, between the Alps and theApennines, the collision between cold and warm air here during the summer months easily permits the growth of very strong thunderstorms. The most frequent tornadoes occur in the eastern section of the Po Plains. Parts ofStyria (Steiermark) inAustria may be a tornado alley, and this state has had at least three F3 tornadoes since 1900.[4] F3 and perhaps one F4 tornado have also occurred as far north as Finland.

Geographical occurrences

[edit]

The United States has the most tornadoes of any country. Many of these form in an area of the central[c] United States known asTornado Alley.[5][6] This area extends into Canada, particularly the prairie provinces and Ontario. Activity in Canada, however, is less frequent and intense than that of the US. Strong tornadoes occur in northern Mexico.[7] A large region of South America is also characterized by storms that reach the level of supercells and produce intense hailstorms, floods, and tornadoes during the spring, summer, and early fall. The region recently dubbed as theTornado Corridor [es] (South America) is considered the second largest in the world in terms of the formation of extreme weather events. It covers most of central Argentina, southern Paraguay, southeastern Brazil, and Uruguay.[8]

Other areas of the world that have frequent strong tornadoes include Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Italy, Spain, China, and thePhilippines. Australia, France, Russia, areas of the Middle East, and Japan have a history of multiple damaging tornado events.[citation needed] Bangladesh and surrounding areas of eastern India suffer from a couple tornadoes annually of similar severity to stronger tornadoes in the US. These occur with a greater recurrence interval but over a smaller region. The annual human death toll from tornadoes in Bangladesh is estimated at 179 deaths per year, which is much greater than in the US. This is likely due to the density of population; poor quality of construction; lack of tornado safety knowledge; and lack of warnings—among other factors.[9]

Number of tornadoes by region

[edit]

Various government agencies and published academic studies have kept track of the number of tornadoes based on geographic region.[10]

RegionStudy conducted byYears of study# of tornadoesReference
EuropeEuropean Severe Storms Laboratory
German Aerospace Center
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Max Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics
ORF Austrian Broadcasting Corporation
66–202117,874[10][11][12]
ChileUniversity of Chile
University of O'Higgins
Center for Climate and Resilience Research
Dirección Meteorológica de Chile
CEILAP
UNIDEF
1633–202251[10][13]
United StatesThomas P. Grazulis1680–19497,082[10][14]
AustraliaBureau of Meteorology1795–20191,326[10][15]
BengalCooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
National Weather Service
ENSCO, Inc.
1838–200387[10][16]
ArgentinaUniversity of Buenos Aires1889–2017330[10][17]
South AfricaZ. Muller with AfriWX1907–2022325[10][18]
New ZealandNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research1908–2019107[10][19]
BrazilUniversity of São Paulo1923–200981[10][20]
United StatesStorm Prediction Center1950–202265,057[10][21]
United StatesNational Centers for Environmental Information1950–202266,178[10][22]
BengalBangladesh University of Engineering and Technology1964–201325[10]
United StatesNational Weather Service1965–20226,874[10][23]
CanadaEnvironment and Climate Change Canada1980–20091,834[10][24]
ChinaTongji University2003–2019734[10][25]
MexicoNational Autonomous University of Mexico
Autonomous University of Zacatecas
Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica
2007–2020350[10][26]
JapanJapan Meteorological Agency2007–2020531[10]
ChinaPeking University2007–2016983[10][27]
CanadaNorthern Tornadoes Project,Western University2017–2021375[10]

By area

[edit]

Africa

[edit]
Main article:List of Africa tornadoes and tornado outbreaks

Tornadoes do occur in extreme southern Africa (including the countries ofSouth Africa,Lesotho, andEswatini). In October 2011, two people were killed and nearly 200 were injured after a tornado formed, nearFicksburg in theFree State; more than 1,000 shacks and houses were flattened.[28] There is also the seasonal incidence of tornadoes in the coast ofwestern Africa. These occur during the onset of the rainy season when tumultuous winds accompanied by sheets of rain as well as spectacular thunder and lightning batter the coast.[29] The tornado generating storms were often welcomed by colonial settlers in the region since they dissipated extreme heat andhumidity during the last days of the dry season. Tornadoes are often embedded in the Africansquall lines,[30][31] but they damage crops, and diminish any beneficial effect of its rains.

Asia

[edit]
Tornado damage in Bangladesh
Main article:List of tornadoes and tornado outbreaks in Asia

Bangladesh and the eastern parts of India are very exposed to destructive tornadoes. Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Japan have the highest number of reported tornadoes in Asia. Thesingle deadliest tornado ever recorded struck theManikganj District of Bangladesh on 26 April 1989, killing an estimated 1,300 people, injuring 12,000, and leaving approximately 80,000 people homeless.[32] Five other recorded tornadic events have killed more than 500 people in Bangladesh, most recently on 13 May 1996 whena tornado swept through theJamalpur andTangail districts, killing more than 600.[32]

China occasionally experiences destructive tornadoes. Storms producing multiple tornadoes and hail struck a densely populated area of farms and factories near the city ofYancheng in Jiangsu province, about 800 kilometers (500 miles) south ofBeijing, China.[33][34] Throughout China, an estimated 100 tornadoes may occur per year with a few exceeding F2 in intensity, with activity most prevalent in eastern regions.[35]During the period of 1948 until 2013, 4763 tornadoes were confirmed in China.[36]

Europe

[edit]
Main article:List of European tornadoes and tornado outbreaks

The UK has the most annual tornadoes per land area per year, 0.14 per 1000 km2 (although these tornadoes are generally weak), and other European countries have a similar number of tornadoes per area.[37] One notable tornado of recent years was thetornado that struckBirmingham, United Kingdom, in July 2005. A row of houses was destroyed, but no one was killed.

Europe as a whole has about 180 tornadoes per year. They are most common from June to August, especially inCentral Europe and thePo Valley of Italy, and rarest from January to March. Strong tornadoes (F2, F3) do occur, but violent tornadoes (F4, F5) are quite rare - return rates for F4 events are a decade or more across the continent, and there has been no officially recorded F5s for the contemporary period in Europe. As in the US, tornadoes are far from evenly distributed. Since 1900, deadly tornadoes have occurred in Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic,[38][39][40] Finland, France,[41][42] Germany,[43] Italy,[44][45] Lithuania, Estonia, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Ukraine, Portugal, Romania, Russia, and the UK. The1984 Ivanovo–Yaroslavl outbreak, with more than 400 fatalities and 213 injured, was the 20th century's deadliest tornado outbreak in Europe. It included at least two tornadoes with a rating of F4.[d]

North America

[edit]
Canada's only confirmed F5 tornado occurred in Elie, Manitoba on June 22, 2007
Main article:List of North American tornadoes and tornado outbreaks

Canada

[edit]

Canada annually experiences numerous tornadoes, although fewer than the United States. On average 62 are reported per year, but this number is expected to in fact be higher due to undetected tornadoes in large expanses of underpopulated areas.[47]NOAA records a higher average of 100 per year in Canada.[48] These storms cause tens of millions ofdollars in damage. Most are weak F0 or F1 in intensity, but there are on average a few F2 or stronger that touch down each season.

For example, the tornado frequency ofSouthwestern Ontario is about half that of the most tornado-prone areas of the central US plains. The last multiple tornado-related deaths in Canada were caused by a tornado inEar Falls, Ontario on 9 July 2009, where 3 died, and the last killer tornado was on 21 June 2021 inMascouche, Quebec.[49] The two deadliest tornadoes on Canadian soil were theRegina Cyclone of 30 June 1912 (28 fatalities) and theEdmonton Tornado of 31 July 1987 (27 fatalities). Both of these storms were rated an F4 on the Fujita scale. The city ofWindsor was struck by strong tornadoes four times over 61 years (1946, 1953, 1974, 1997) ranging in strength from an F2 to F4. Canada's first official F5 tornado struckElie, Manitoba on22 June 2007.[50] Tornadoes are most frequent in the provinces ofAlberta,Saskatchewan,Manitoba, and Ontario.

United States

[edit]
Main article:Tornadoes in the United States
Average annual tornado reports in the United States

The United States averaged 1,274 tornadoes per year from 2001 to 2011. April 2011 saw the most tornadoes recorded to date for any month in the USNational Weather Service's history: 875.[e][51] It has more tornadoes yearly than any other country, and reports far more violent F4 and F5 tornadoes than anywhere else. The most extreme tornadic phenomena (as in the occurrence of EF5-strength tornadoes, width, track and measured wind speed records, the occurrence of phenomena like twin tornadoes and particularly large and intenseoutbreaks) are almost exclusive to the United States.[37]

Tornadoes are common in many states but are most common to the west of theAppalachian Mountains and to the east of theRockies. The Atlantic seaboard states:North Carolina,South Carolina,Georgia andVirginia, are also vulnerable, as well asFlorida, though most Florida tornadoes are relatively weak, usually EF0 or EF1. Thesouthern states are also highly impacted, in terms of casualties. More tornadoes occur inTexas than in any other US state,[f] but the state that has the highest number of tornadoes per area is Florida. Tornadoes often occur along the edges of thehurricanes that strike the state. The state with the highest number of strong tornadoes per area isOklahoma, while the neighboring state ofKansas records the most EF4 and EF5 tornadoes in the country.

Tornadoes can occur west of thecontinental divide, but they are infrequent and usually relatively weak and short-lived. Recently, tornadoes have struck along the Pacific coast towns ofLincoln City, Oregon (1996);Sunnyvale, California (1998);Port Orchard, Washington (2018); and downtownSalt Lake City, Utah (1999).[g] TheCalifornia Central Valley is an area of some frequency for tornadoes, albeit of very weak intensity.[52]

The deadliest U.S. tornado recorded is theTri-State tornado of March 18, 1925 that swept across southeasternMissouri, southernIllinois, and southernIndiana, killing 695 people. The biggesttornado outbreak on record—with 353 tornadoes for just3+12 days (including four EF5 and eleven EF4 tornadoes)—occurred starting on 25 April 2011 and intensifying on April, 26, and 27 (a record-breaking day), before ending on 28 April 2011, now referred to as the2011 Super Outbreak.[h] A similar outbreak was seen in1974.

South America

[edit]
Diagram explaining the weather systems that contribute to increased tornado frequency in South America's Tornado Alley (in red).

Argentina, southern and southeast Brazil, Uruguay, and part of Paraguay. Argentina has many areas with high tornadic activity, and also one of the most intense tornadoes in theSouthern Hemisphere,[citation needed] such as theF5 in San Justo, Argentina, 105 km (65 mi) a town in the province ofSanta Fe, with winds that exceeded 400 kilometres per hour (250 mph). In Brazil, one of the most remarkable events occurred on 24 May 2005 when an F3 multiple-vortex tornado[53] struck the industrial district of the municipality ofIndaiatuba, in the state of São Paulo.

Oceania

[edit]
Damage caused by the 1918Brighton tornado in Australia'sVictoria state
Main articles:List of Australia tornadoes andList of New Zealand tornadoes

Australia experiences about 30–80 tornadoes per year. The actual number is likely more, as tornadoes in remote regions may not be reported.[54] Tornadoes in Australia are typically weak, though strong tornadoes have been observed. On 29 November 1992,an F4 tornado struck Bucca in Queensland.[55]

New Zealand averages between 7 and 10 tornadoes annually, most of which are typically weak.[56] A rare F3 tornado struckMotunui inTaranaki on 15 August 2004, killing two people and injuring two others.[57] A deadly tornado hit the northern suburbs ofAuckland on 3 May 2011, killing one and injuring at least 16 people.[citation needed]

Time of occurrence

[edit]
U. S. annual count of confirmed tornadoes. The count uptick in 1990 is correlated with the introduction of doppler weather radar.

Cyclonic systems

[edit]

Tornadoes are most common in spring and least common in winter.[14] The seasonal transition during autumn and spring promotes the development ofextratropical cyclones and frontal systems that support strong convective storms. Tornadoes are common inlandfallingtropical cyclones, where they are focused in the right poleward section of the cyclone. Tornadoes can be spawned as a result ofeyewall mesovortices, which persist until landfall.[58]

Seasonality

[edit]

The time of year is a major factor in the intensity and frequency of tornadoes. On average, in the United States as a whole, the month with the most tornadoes is in May, followed by the months June, April, and July. There is no "tornado season" though, as tornadoes, including violent tornadoes and major outbreaks, can and do occur anywhere at any time of year if favorable conditions develop. Major tornado outbreaks have occurred every month of the year.[59]

The reason for the peak period for tornado formation in North America being skewed toward spring has much to do with temperature patterns in the U.S. Tornadoes often form when cool, polar air traveling southeastward from theRocky Mountains overrides warm, moist, unstableGulf of Mexico air in the eastern states. Tornadoes tend to be commonly found in front of a cold front, along with heavy rains, hail, and damaging winds. Since both warm and cold major weather patterns collide in Spring, the conflict between the two air masses tends to the formation of tornado producing storms and supercells. As the weather warms across the country, the occurrence of tornadoes spreads northward. There is a second active tornado season of the year that usually appears in late September to mid-November. Autumn, like spring, is a time of the year when warm weather frequently alternates with cold weather, especially in the Midwest; but the season is not as active as it is during the springtime, and tornado frequencies are higher along theAtlantic coastal plain. On average, there are around 294 tornadoes throughout the United States during May, and as many as 543 tornadoes have been reported in May alone (in 2003). The months with the fewest tornadoes are usually December and January, although major tornado outbreaks can and sometimes do occur even in those months. In general, in the Midwestern and Plains states, springtime (especially the month of May) is the most active season for tornadoes, while in the far northern states (likeMinnesota andWisconsin), the peak tornado season is usually in the summer months (June and July). In the colder late autumn and winter months (from early December to late February), tornado activity is generally limited to the southern states, where warm Gulf of Mexico air can penetrate.[citation needed]

July is the peak month in Austria, Finland, and Germany.[60]

Diurnality

[edit]

Tornado occurrence is highly dependent on the time of day because ofsolar heating.[61] Austria, Finland, Germany, and the United States'[62] peak hour of occurrence is 5 pm, with roughly half of all tornado occurrence between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. local time.[63][64][65][66] Due to this being the time of peak atmospheric heating, and thus the maximum available energy for storms; some researchers, includingHoward B. Bluestein of theUniversity of Oklahoma, have referred to this phenomenon as "five o'clock magic." Despite this, there have been several morning tornadoes reported, such as evidenced by theGainesville Tornado of 1936 (one of the deadliest tornadoes in history) that occurred at 8:30 a.m. local time.[14]

Common misconceptions

[edit]

Tornado myths exist that may cause ill-conceived preparation, planning, and reactions to tornadoes. For instance: some people mistakenly believe that tornadoes only occur in the countryside. While it is true that theplains states are tornado-prone, tornadoes have been reported in every U.S. state, includingAlaska andHawaii. One likely reason tornadoes are so common in the central U.S. is that this is where Arctic air, cold fronts that have not been "weakened" yet first collide with warm tropical air from theGulf of Mexico. As these fronts head further east, they sometimes lose their strength as they travel over more warm air. For this reason, tornadoes are not as common on theEast Coast as they are in the Midwest. However, they have happened on rare occasions, such as the F3 twister that struckLimerick Township, Pennsylvania near Philadelphia on 27 July 1994,[67] the F2 twister that struck the northern suburbs of New York City on 12 July 2006,[68] the EF2 twister in the borough ofBrooklyn on 8 August 2007, or the F4 twister thatstruck La Plata, Maryland on 28 April 2002.

Another popular misconception is that tornadoes don't occur in mountainous areas, or that mountainous terrain will protect people from tornadoes. While the frequency of tornadoes is lower in mountainous areas compared toTornado Alley, significant tornadoes can occur regularly in the southern Appalachian region of the United States[69] and have even been documented at high altitudes along thecontinental divide of Wyoming.[70] In addition,tornado outbreaks occasionally occur around the southern Appalachian mountains,[71] with the1974 Super Outbreak and the2011 Super Outbreak directly affecting the southern Appalachian region.[72]

Long-term trends

[edit]

The reliable climatology of tornadoes is limited in geographic and temporal scope; only since 1976 in the United States and 2000 in Europe have thorough and accuratetornado statistics been logged.[73][74] However, some trends can be noted in tornadoes causing significant damage in the United States, as somewhat reliable statistics on damaging tornadoes exist as far back as 1880. The highest incidence of violent tornadoes seems to shift from the Southeastern United States to the southernGreat Plains every few decades. Also, the 1980s seemed to be a period of unusually low tornado activity in the United States, and the number of multi-death tornadoes decreased every decade from the 1920s to the 1980s, suggesting a multi-decadal pattern of some sort.[75] Also, more advanced weather warning and prediction has led to fewer tornado related deaths.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^For example, a freak tornadoes hit South St. Louis County Missouri on 31 December 2010, causing pockets of heavy damage to a modest area before dissipating—the temperature was unseasonably warm that day—and theEF-4 that completely leveled the town ofMayfield, Kentucky on 10 December 2021, and was from a long-lived supercell that produced two long-track EF-4 tornadoes.
  2. ^The dry air is pushed up to non-usual levels, due to the downsloping winds coming off the Rockies. This causescyclogenesis downstream to the east of the mountains, where supercell storms will develop.
  3. ^Some definitions include the southern U.S.
  4. ^Possibly Europe's deadliest tornado hit Malta in 1551 (or 1556) and killed about 600.[46]
  5. ^Prior to 2022, the previous U.S. regional record for most tornadoes in one month was 542.
  6. ^This is due to Texas' large size, its location on the southern end of Tornado Alley, and the occurrence of tropical cyclone-related tornadoes.
  7. ^SeeSalt Lake City Tornado
  8. ^Previously, the record was 148 tornadoes in an outbreak that was dubbed the1974 Super Outbreak.

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[edit]
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