AReagan Democrat is a traditionallyDemocratic voter in the United States, referring toworking class residents who supportedRepublican presidential candidatesRonald Reagan in the1980 and/or the1984 United States presidential elections, and/orGeorge H. W. Bush in the1988 United States presidential election. The term remains part of the lexicon in American political jargon because of Reagan's continued widespread popularity among a large segment of the electorate.[1]
During the 1980 election a dramatic number of voters in the United States, disillusioned with theeconomic malaise of the 1970s and the presidency ofJimmy Carter (even more than four years earlier under moderate RepublicanGerald Ford), supported Reagan, a former Democrat and California governor. Reagan's optimistic tone managed to win over a broad set of voters to an almost unprecedented degree (for a Republican since moderate war heroDwight D. Eisenhower's victories in 1952 and 1956) across the board but did not make particular demographic inroads with Democratic voters,[2] with the possible exception of national security voters (a focused yet relatively small group, difficult to find decisive empirical support for and identified in 1980 with DemocratHenry "Scoop" Jackson, a Reagan ally for a brief period after 1980 until his death in 1983).
The term Reagan Democrat is sometimes used to describe moderate Democrats who are more conservative than liberal on certain issues like national security and immigration. The term Reagan Democrat also refers to the vast sway that Reagan held over theHouse of Representatives during his presidency, even though the house had a Democratic majority during both of his terms.[3] The term also hearkens back toRichard Nixon'ssilent majority, a concept that Reagan himself used during his political campaigns in the 1970s.
Democratic pollsterStan Greenberg issued a study of Reagan Democrats, analyzing white ethnic voters (largely unionized auto workers) inMacomb County, Michigan, just north ofDetroit. The county voted 63 percent forJohn F. Kennedy in 1960 but 66 percent for Reagan in 1984.[4] He concluded that Reagan Democrats no longer saw the Democratic Party as champions of their working-class aspirations but instead saw them as working primarily for the benefit of others: the very poor, feminists, the unemployed, African Americans, Latinos, and other groups. In addition, Reagan Democrats enjoyed gains during the period of economic prosperity that coincided with the Reagan administration following the malaise of theCarter administration. They also supported Reagan's strong stance on national security and opposed the 1980s Democratic Party on such issues as pornography, crime, and high taxes.[3]
Greenberg periodically revisited the voters of Macomb County as a barometer of public opinion until he conducted a 2008 exit poll that found "nearly 60 percent" of Macomb County voters were"'comfortable' withMr. Obama", drawing the conclusion that Macomb County had "become normal and uninteresting" and "illustrates America's evolving relationship with race". As such, Greenberg stated in an op-ed forThe New York Times: "I'm finished with the Reagan Democrats of Macomb County in suburban Detroit after making a career of spotlighting their middle-class anger and frustrations about race and Democratic politicians."[5] Obama ultimately won Macomb County by a comfortable 53–45% margin that year, the same margin he won nationally.[6] In 2016, Macomb County voted forDonald Trump,[7] and did so again in 2020 and 2024.[8][9]
Reagan biographerCraig Shirley wrote extensively about Reagan Democrats. His 1980 election account "Rendezvous with Destiny" clearly distinguishes the appearance ofblue-collar crossovers for Reagan during the 1980 Wisconsin primaries at a Reagan event in Milwaukee's "ethnic Mecca" Serb Hall. He writes: "A young Democrat, Robert Ponasik, stood on a chair furiously waving a handmade sign that proclaimed, 'Cross Over for Reagan'. Of the reaction to Reagan in Serb Hall,Lynn Sherr ofABC reported, 'In judging from the way they showed up at a long-time Democratic meeting hall ... a large number of blue-collar voters could go for Reagan.'"[10]
The demographic shift that Reagan tapped into continued into the 1990s after he left office. The Democrats responded with new themes. This is evidenced by the rise ofBill Clinton to the presidency during the 1992 presidential election. In that campaign, candidate Clinton billed himself as "a different kind of Democrat",[11] and forswore many older Democratic Party policies in favor of centristThird Way policies that were championed by theDemocratic Leadership Council in hopes of reconnecting with many working-class voters who had voted Republican in presidential campaigns since 1968—the silent majority of Nixon and the Reagan Democrats.
Many self-styled Reagan Democrats claim to befiscal conservatives but still support many aspects of the core programs of theNew Deal and theGreat Society while also supporting Reagan's strong defense policies and his optimism in American culture. They still voted for Democratic politicians in the legislative and state elections until mid-1990s. Some elements of theTea Party movement fit this sketch but many other independents and Democrats could fall into the same category as well. One of the most prominent self-styled Reagan Democrats includes the one-time Virginia SenatorJim Webb (who was in office from 2007 to 2013),[12] whom columnistDavid Paul Kuhn asserts is the quintessential Reagan Democrat and one of the last of an "endangered species" within the Democratic Party.[13]
In 2012, conservative commentatorGeorge Will, observing the long-term movements of partisanship, said: "White voters without college education—economically anxious and culturally conservative—were called 'Reagan Democrats' when they were considered only seasonal Republicans because of Ronald Reagan. Today they are called the Republican base."[14]
The term still carries relevance, since part of this group defected to Trump in the2016 United States presidential election, who won every swing state in theRust Belt and became the first Republican candidate to winPennsylvania andMichigan since 1988 and the first to winWisconsin since 1984. All of these states voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984 but voted for Democratic U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.[15][16]
Following the 2016 election, which saw many Rust Belt counties turn to Trump, a Republican strategist said that the working-class Reagan Democrats who favored Trump in 2016 should now be called "Trump Republicans".[17] Conversely, it has been suggested that Reagan Democrats did not necessarily swing the Rust Belt states in 2016 but rather that Democratic voters in those regions stayed home on election day.[18][19] Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win all three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since Reagan in 1984.[a][b]
In a 2021 profile withPolitico,Stan Greenberg used the term "Biden Republican" to identify a large bloc of suburban white collar voters who choseJoe Biden over Trump in the2020 United States presidential election. Greenberg highlighted that these voters have been reliably Republican for decades but were inclined to vote for the Democratic nominee because of thenativism ofTrumpism.[20] Following the2024 United States presidential election, Trump flipped all three Rust Belt states ofMichigan,Pennsylvania, andWisconsin again. With Trump'sElectoral College victories in 2016 and 2024, he became the first Republican presidential candidate to win all three Rust Belt states twice since Reagan in 1980 and 1984.[c]
