Population growth is the increase in the number of people in apopulation or dispersed group. Theglobal population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2025.[3] Actual global human population growth amounts to around 70 million annually, or 0.85% per year. As of 2024, The United Nations projects that global population will peak in the mid-2080s at around 10.3 billion. The UN's estimates have decreased strongly in recent years due to sharp declines in global birth rates.[4] Others have challenged many recent population projections as having underestimated population growth.[5]
The world human population has been growing since the end of theBlack Death, around the year 1350.[6] A mix of technological advancement that improvedagricultural productivity[7] and sanitation and medical advancement that reduced mortality increased population growth. In some geographies, this has slowed through the process called thedemographic transition, where many nations with high standards of living have seen a significant slowing of population growth. This is in direct contrast with less developed contexts, where population growth is still happening.[8] Globally, the rate of population growth has declined from a peak of 2.2% per year in 1963.[9]
World human population estimates from 1800 to 2100, with estimated range of future population after 2020 based on "high" and "low" scenarios. Data from theUnited Nations projections in 2019.Estimated size of human population from 10,000BCE to 2000 CE
Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to grow food, theHaber process, named after one of its inventors, the German chemistFritz Haber, served as the "detonator of thepopulation explosion", enabling theglobal population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2019.[17]
Some of the reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population"[18] were particularly investigated by the British health scientistThomas McKeown (1912–1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:
McKeown stated that the growth in Western population, particularly surging in the 19th century, was not so much caused by an increase infertility, but largely by a decline ofmortality particularly of childhood mortality followed byinfant mortality,[19][20]
The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living, whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,
McKeown questioned the effectiveness of public health measures, including sanitary reforms, vaccination and quarantine,[21]
The “McKeown thesis" states thatcurative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline, not only prior to the mid-20th century[19] but also until well into the 20th century.[22]
Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas.[23] His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winnersRobert W. Fogel (1993) andAngus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder ofsocial medicine".[24]
The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:
A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in thebirth rates,death rates,immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.[25]
A related measure is thenet reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.
Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow alogistic model. Once the population has reached itscarrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most itsnatural resources.[26] In the world human population, growth may be said to have been following alinear trend throughout the last few decades.[9]
Estimates of population evolution in differentcontinents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations. The vertical axis islogarithmic and is in millions of people. (2011)World population growth rates between 1950 and 2050
The world population growth rate peaked in 1963 at 2.2% per year and subsequently declined.[9] In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[28] TheCIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.[29] The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due tomedical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase inagricultural productivity made possible by theGreen Revolution.[30]
The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million.[28] Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of theMiddle East andSub-Saharan Africa, and also inSouth Asia,Southeast Asia, andLatin America.[31]
TheUnited Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century. TheInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that the global population will peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion and decline to 8.89 billion in 2100.[34] A 2014 study inScience concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century.[35][36] TheGerman Foundation for World Population reported in December 2019 that the global human population grows by 2.6 people every second, and could reach 8 billion by 2023.[37][38]
The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.
According toUnited Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.[39] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth rate was among highest in theUnited Arab Emirates (315%) andQatar (271%).[39]
Growth rates of the world's most populous countries
Many of the world's countries, including many inSub-Saharan Africa, theMiddle East,South Asia andSouth East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of theCold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population ofChad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009,[41] further straining its resources.Vietnam,Mexico,Nigeria,Egypt,Ethiopia, and theDRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.
The following table gives some example countries or territories:
Human population projections are attempts toextrapolate howhuman populations will change in the future.[99] These projections are an important input toforecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being.[100] Models of population growth take trends inhuman development and apply projections into the future.[101] These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affectfertility andmortality, and thus population growth.[101]
^Ritchie, Hannah; Rodés-Guirao, Lucas; Mathieu, Edouard; Gerber, Marcel; Ortiz-Ospina, Esteban; Hasell, Joe; Roser, Max (11 July 2023)."Population Growth".Our World in Data. Retrieved26 January 2025.
^Stokstad, Erik (5 May 2019)."Landmark analysis documents the alarming global decline of nature".Science.AAAS. Retrieved20 October 2022.Driving these threats are the growing human population, which has doubled since 1970 to 7.6 billion, and consumption. (Per capita of use of materials is up 15% over the past 5 decades.)
^United Nations Environment Programme (2021).Making Peace with Nature: A scientific blueprint to tackle the climate, biodiversity and pollution emergencies. Nairobi.https://www.unep.org/resources/making-peace-nature
^Armelagos, George J., Alan H. Goodman, and Kenneth H. Jacobs. "The origins of agriculture: Population growth during a period of declining health." Population and Environment 13.1 (1991): 9-22.
^McKeown, Thomas (1976).The Modern Rise of Population. London, UK: Edward Arnold.ISBN9780713159868.
^abMcKeown T, Brown RG (1955). "Medical evidence related to English population changes in the eighteenth century".Population Studies.9 (2):119–141.doi:10.1080/00324728.1955.10404688.JSTOR2172162.
^McKeown T, Record RG (1962). "Reasons for the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales during the Nineteenth Century".Population Studies.16 (2):94–122.doi:10.2307/2173119.JSTOR2173119.
^McKeown T, Record RG, Turner RD (1975). "An Interpretation of the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales during the Twentieth Century".Population Studies.29 (3):391–422.doi:10.1080/00324728.1975.10412707.JSTOR2173935.PMID11630508.
^Deaton, Angus (2013).The Great Escape. Health, wealth, and the origins of inequality. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press. pp. 91–93.ISBN978-0-691-15354-4.McKeown's views, updated to modern circumstances, are still important today in debates between those who think that health is primarily determined by medical discoveries and medical treatment and those who look to the background social conditions of life.
^abcdefghi"World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision: Selected Tables: Annex Tables"(PDF).United Nations. 2009. Table A.1. Total Population by Sex in 2009 and Sex Ratio by Country in 2009. Retrieved12 March 2009. NB: The preliminary results of the National population census in Guinea-Bissau put the figure at 1,449,230, according to email information by the Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisa, Bissau.
^"Population clock".Australian Bureau of Statistics website. Commonwealth of Australia. Retrieved12 April 2011. The population estimate shown is automatically calculated daily at 00:00 UTC and is based on data obtained from the population clock on the date shown in the citation.