I. J. Good | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Born | Isadore Jacob Gudak (1916-12-09)9 December 1916 |
| Died | 5 April 2009(2009-04-05) (aged 92) |
| Alma mater | Jesus College, Cambridge |
| Known for | Good–Thomas algorithm Good–Toulmin estimator Good–Turing frequency estimation Black hole cosmology Intelligence explosion |
| Awards | Smith's Prize(1940) |
| Scientific career | |
| Fields | Statistician,cryptologist |
| Institutions | Trinity College, Oxford;Virginia Tech |
| Doctoral advisor | G. H. Hardy |
Irving John Good (9 December 1916 – 5 April 2009)[1][2]was a British mathematician who worked as acryptologist atBletchley Park withAlan Turing. After theSecond World War, Good continued to work with Turing on the design of computers andBayesian statistics at theUniversity of Manchester. Good moved to the United States where he was a professor atVirginia Tech.
He was bornIsadore Jacob Gudak to aPolish Jewish family in London. He later anglicised his name to Irving John Good and signed his publications "I. J. Good."
An originator of the concept known as theintelligence explosion, Good served as consultant on supercomputers toStanley Kubrick, director of the 1968 film2001: A Space Odyssey.[3]
Good was born Isadore Jacob Gudak to PolishJewish parents in London. His father was a watchmaker, who later managed and owned a successful fashionable jewellery shop, and was also a notable Yiddish writer writing under thepen name of Moshe Oved. Good was educated atthe Haberdashers' Aske's Boys' School, at the time inHampstead in northwest London, where, according toDan van der Vat, Good effortlessly outpaced the mathematicscurriculum.[3]
Good studied mathematics atJesus College, Cambridge, graduating in 1938 and winning theSmith's Prize in 1940.[4] He did research underG. H. Hardy andAbram Besicovitch before moving to Bletchley Park in 1941 on completing his doctorate.
On 27 May 1941, having just obtained his doctorate at Cambridge, Good walked intoHut 8, Bletchley's facility for breaking German naval ciphers, for his first shift. This was the day that Britain'sRoyal Navy destroyed theGerman battleship Bismarck after it had sunk the Royal Navy'sHMS Hood. Bletchley had contributed toBismarck's destruction by discovering, through wireless-traffic analysis, that the German flagship was sailing forBrest, France, rather thanWilhelmshaven, from which she had set out.[3]Hut 8 had not, however, been able to decrypt on a current basis the 22 German NavalEnigma messages that had been sent toBismarck. The German Navy's Enigma cyphers were considerably more secure than those of the German Army or Air Force, which had been well penetrated by 1940. Naval messages were taking three to seven days to decrypt, which usually made them operationally useless for the British. This was about to change, however, with Good's help.[3]
Alan Turing... had caught Good sleeping on the floor while on duty during his first night shift. At first, Turing thought Good was ill, but he was cross when Good explained that he was just taking a short nap because he was tired. For days afterwards, Turing would not deign to speak to Good, and he left the room if Good walked in. The new recruit only won Turing's respect after he solved the bigram tables problem. During a subsequent night shift, when there was no more work to be done, it dawned on Good that there might be another chink in the German indicating system. The German telegraphists had to add dummy letters to the trigrams which they selected out of theKenngruppenbuch... Good wondered if their choice of dummy letters was random, or whether there was a bias towards particular letters. After inspecting some messages which had been broken, he discovered that there was a tendency to use some letters more than others. That being the case, all the codebreakers had to do, was to work back from the indicators given at the beginning of each message, and apply each bigram table in turn in the same way asJoan Clarke had done before. The bigram table which produced one of the popular dummy letters was probably the correct one. When Good mentioned his discovery to Alan Turing, Turing was very embarrassed, and said, 'I could have sworn that I tried that.' It quickly became an important part of theBanburismus procedure.Jack Good's refusal to go on working when tired was vindicated by a subsequent incident. During another long night shift, he had been baffled by his failure to break a doubly encipheredOffizier message. This was one of the messages which was supposed to be enciphered initially with the Enigma set up in accordance with theOffizier settings, and subsequently with the general Enigma settings in place. However, while he was sleeping before returning for another shift, he dreamed that the order had been reversed; the general settings had been applied before theOffizier settings. Next day he found that the message had yet to be read, so he applied the theory which had come to him during the night. It worked; he had broken the code in his sleep.[5]
Good served with Turing for nearly two years.[3] Subsequently, he worked withDonald Michie inMax Newman's group on theFishciphers, leading to the development of theColossus computer.[6]
Good was a member of the Bletchley Chess Club which defeated theOxford University Chess Club 8–4 in a twelve-board team match held on 2 December 1944. Good played fourth board for Bletchley Park, withConel Hugh O'Donel Alexander,Harry Golombek andJames Macrae Aitken in the top three spots.[7] He won his game againstSir Robert Robinson.[8]
In 1947, Newman invited Good to join him and Turing atManchester University. There, for three years, Good lectured in mathematics and researched computers, including theManchester Mark 1.[3]
In 1948, Good was recruited back to the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ). He remained there until 1959, while also taking up a brief associate professorship atPrinceton University and a short consultancy withIBM.[3]
From 1959 until he moved to the US in 1967, Good held government-funded positions and from 1964 a senior research fellowship atTrinity College, Oxford, and theAtlas Computer Laboratory, where he continued his interests in computing, statistics and chess.[2] He later left Oxford, declaring it "a little stiff".
In 1967, Good moved to the United States, where he was appointed a research professor of statistics atVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. In 1969, he was appointed a University Distinguished Professor at Virginia Tech, and in 1994 Emeritus University Distinguished Professor.[9]In 1973, he was elected as aFellow of the American Statistical Association.[10]
He later said about his arrival in Virginia (from Britain) in 1967 to start teaching at VPI, where he taught from 1967 to 1994:
I arrived in Blacksburg in the seventh hour of the seventh day of the seventh month of the year seven in the seventh decade, and I was put in Apartment 7 of Block 7...all by chance.[11]
Good's published work ran to over three million words.[3]He was known for his work onBayesian statistics.Kass andRaftery[12] credit Good (and in turn Turing) with coining the termBayes factor. Good published a number of books onprobability theory. In 1958, he published an early version of what later became known as thefast Fourier transform[13] but it did not become widely known. He playedchess to county standard and helped populariseGo, an Asian boardgame, through a 1965 article inNew Scientist (he had learned the rules from Alan Turing).[14] In 1965, he originated the concept now known as "intelligence explosion" or the "technological singularity", which anticipates the eventual advent ofsuperhuman intelligence:
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind... Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. It is curious that this point is made so seldom outside of science fiction. It is sometimes worthwhile to take science fiction seriously.[15][16]
Good's authorship of treatises such as his 1965 "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine"[17] and "Logic of Man and Machine"[18] made him the obvious person forStanley Kubrick to consult when filming2001: A Space Odyssey (1968), one of whose principal characters was the paranoidHAL 9000supercomputer.[3] In 1995, Good was elected a member of theAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.[2]Graphcore's proposedfoundation model $600m computer, that usesHuman-Centered Artificial Intelligence, which will have the potential capacity of running programs with 500trn parameters, was named to honor Good's intellectual heritage.[19][Notes 1][20] According toThe Economist, Graphcore aims to take the "first step" towards creating I. J. Good's imagined "Ultraintelligent Machine".[19]
According to his assistant, Leslie Pendleton, in 1998 Good wrote in an unpublished autobiographical statement that he suspected an ultraintelligent machine would lead tothe extinction of man.[21]
Good published a paper under the names IJ Good and "K Caj Doog"—the latter, his own nickname spelled backwards. In a 1988 paper,[22] he introduced its subject by saying, "Many people have contributed to this topic but I shall mainly review the writings of I. J. Good because I have read them all carefully." InVirginia he chose, as hisvanity licence plate, "007IJG," in subtle reference to hisSecond World Warintelligence work.[3]
Good never married.[23] After going through ten assistants in his first thirteen years at Virginia Tech, he hired Leslie Pendleton, who proved up to the task of managing his quirks. He wanted to marry her, but she refused. Although there was speculation, they were never more than friends, but she was his assistant, companion, and friend for the rest of his life.[24]
Good died on 5 April 2009 ofnatural causes inRadford, Virginia, aged 92.[25][26]
{{citation}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)[28][29]Good, I. J.. “Explicativity, corroboration, and the relative odds of hypotheses.” Synthese 30 (1975): 39–73.[30]
The terminology is apparently due to Good 1958, who attributed the method to Turing in addition to, and independently of, Jeffreys at about the same time
In the bio, playfully written in the third person, Good summarized his life's milestones, including a probably never before seen account of his work at Bletchley Park with Turing. But here's what he wrote in 1998 about the first superintelligence, and his late-in-the-game U-turn: [The paper] 'Speculations Concerning the First Ultra-intelligent Machine' (1965) . . . began: 'The survival of man depends on the early construction of an ultra-intelligent machine'. Those were his [Good's] words during the Cold War, and he now suspects that 'survival' should be replaced by 'extinction'. He thinks that, because of international competition, we cannot prevent the machines from taking over. He thinks we are lemmings. He said also that 'probably Man will construct the deus ex machina in his own image.'
