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Environmental migrants are people who are forced to leave their home of residency due to sudden or long-term changes to their local or regional environment. These changes compromise their well-being or livelihood, and include increaseddrought,desertification,sea level rise, and disruption of seasonalweather patterns (such asmonsoons[1]). Though there is no uniform, clear-cut definition of environmental migration, the idea is gaining attention aspolicy-makers and environmental and social scientists attempt toconceptualize the potential socialeffects of climate change and otherenvironmental degradation. Environmental migrants originate from a variety of different locations, includingSmall Island Developing States.
"Environmental migrant" and "climate migrant" (or "climate refugee") are used somewhat interchangeably with a range of similar terms, such as ecological refugee, environmental refugee, forced environmental migrant, environmentally motivated migrant, environmentally displaced person (EDP), disaster refugee, environmental displacee, eco-refugee, ecologically displaced person, or environmental-refugee-to-be (ERTB).[2] The distinctions between these terms remain contested.
The term "environmental refugee" was first proposed byLester Brown in 1976.[3] TheInternational Organization for Migration (IOM) proposes the following definition for environmental migrants:
"Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad."[4]
IN 1985, UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) researcher Essam El-Hinnawi defined environmental refugees as:
"those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life [sic]. By 'environmental disruption' in this definition is meant any physical, chemical, and/or biological changes in the ecosystem (or resource base) that render it, temporarily or permanently, unsuitable to support human life."[5]
Climate migrants are a subset of environmental migrants who were forced to flee "due to sudden or gradual alterations in thenatural environment related to at least one of three impacts ofclimate change:sea-level rise,extreme weather events, anddrought andwater scarcity."[6]
TheInternational Organization for Migration proposes three types of environmental migrants:
Other scholars have proposed various other types of migrant including:
There have been a number of attempts over the decades to enumerate environmental migrants andrefugees. In 1988, Jodi Jacobson became the first researcher to calculate the total number of environmental migrants, stating that there were already up to 10 million environmental refugees. Drawing on 'worst-case scenarios' about sea-level rise, she argued that all forms of 'Environmental Refugees' would be six times as numerous as political refugees.[17] By 1989,Mustafa Tolba, Executive Director ofUnited Nations Environment Programme, proposed that the number of environmental refugees could exceed 50 million people if the world did not begin to work towardssustainable development.[18]
In the mid-1990s, British environmentalist,Norman Myers, became the most prominent proponent of this 'maximalist' school', noting that "environmental refugees will soon become the largest group of involuntaryrefugees".[19] He stated that there were 25 million environmental refugees in the mid-1990s, further claiming that this figure could double by 2010, with an upper limit of 200 million by 2050.[20] Myers argued that the causes of environmental displacement would includedesertification, lack of water, salination of irrigated lands and the depletion of biodiversity. He also hypothesized that displacement would amount to 30m inChina, 30m inIndia, 15m inBangladesh, 14m in Egypt, 10m in other delta areas and coastal zones, 1m in island states, and with otherwise agriculturally displaced people totaling 50m by 2050.[21] More recently, Myers has suggested that the figure by 2050 might be as high as 250 million.[22]
Vikram Kolmannskog has stated that Myers' work can be 'criticized for being inconsistent, impossible to check and failing to take proper account of opportunities to adapt'.[23] Myers himself has acknowledged that his figures are based upon 'heroic extrapolation'.[24]
Many environmental migrants originate fromSmall Island Developing States (SIDS), where the effects ofrising sea levels, increasingnatural disasters, and the depletion offresh water supplies have significantly affected the habitability of these states.[25] Over 65 million people spread across 39 countries live in SIDS, many of whom are highly vulnerable to social, economic, and environmental changes.[26] Due to their vulnerability toclimate change, SIDS have become increasingly uninhabitable, which has caused many environmental migrants to flee their countries in search of a safer environment.[27] As of 2020, an estimated 11.5 million individuals originating from SIDS were living outside their country of birth.[28] In the future, the number of environmental migrants from these countries is projected to increase significantly due to the anticipated continuation ofenvironmental disasters.[27] The countries face many financial, legal, and political barriers regarding environmental migration since they are low on resources and economic stability.[29] There are multiple islands within SIDS that are experiencing increasing levels of environmental migrants. Islands in thePacific Ocean such asKiribati,Vanuatu, andFiji are in immediate danger from the threats of rising sea levels.[29] OtherCaribbean Islands such asBarbados have dealt with a significant rise in environmental migrants due to climate-related challenges.[30] A significant portion ofCaribbean environmental migrants have sought refugee in theUnited States, with over two-thirds of Caribbean migrants residing there as of 2020.[28]
There have been efforts by economically advanced countries to help the SIDS through international support mechanisms such as theGreen Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund.[31] SIDS have also been active participants in theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for making progress towards preventing migration issues and pushing for stronger policies.[27] In September 2014, the SIDS met inApia,Samoa to form the SAMOA Pathway, a ten year plan that addresses climate change faced in the islands.[30] Political figures such asMia Mottley emphasize the need for a major increase in investment and global support to address the limitations of SIDS and environmental migrants.[30]
Efforts to address the environmental migrants are also being made in other neighboring regions. In thePhilippines,legislators are attempting to change the country's immigration policies to accommodate for environmental migrants that are fleeing from SIDS.[29] The proposed House Bill No. 10490 aims to amend the Philippine Immigration Act of 1940 to expand the criteria forrefugee status beyond the traditional categories ofpersecution,religion, andpolitics to includeclimate change.[29]
In recent decades, attempts to understand the implications of climate change have become more common in political discourse. In 2022, theSecretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres stated that theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a, "code red for humanity." He raised the alarm that not only were many of the changes to the climate now irreparable, it would have widespread consequences for the world's ability to maintain peace. When fights between farmers and herders in Nigeria broke out in 2018, the over 1,000 casualties accounted for several times more than civilian deaths in fights withBoko Haram. 2 billion people live in areas where violence and instability threaten development.[32]
This sort of discourse began in the 1990s when several armed conflicts erupted in sub-Saharan Africa. As the Arctic sea ice diminishes, concerns over the militarization of the Arctic zone have been raised as those regional powers begin to compete for control of possibly newly created shipping lanes and access to untapped natural resources. There are two scenarios in which migration caused by climate change can raise security concerns.Scarcity-conflict scenarios, when a population dependent on a certain amount of resources find themselves unable to rely on them anymore. This could be soil fertility or precipitation or water access. As the timeline of restricted access increases, runaway competition can lead to violence that will only make scarce resources even harder to find. Climate change is the cause of this potential tipping point for a population.Abundance-Competition scenarios are when an area that contains a high amount of a desired resource, like lithium or diamonds, those in power can exert economic control over those who wish to access it. This also creates competition that when not resolved, can lead to violence. Factionalization occurs and fighting ensues until control is regained by the victorious group. Living standards will rapidly deteriorate and people caught in the crossfire will likely be forced to either leave or engage in the violence.[33]
It is possible that theArctic zone will lose all its ice by 2035. Nations with economic interests like China, Russia, and the United states are planning to enact control over that region for new trade routes. Heatwaves killed 15,000 in France in 2003 and 356,000 people were estimated to have been killed by excessive heat in 2019. By 2070, 1-3 billion of the world's population will be living in areas where the average annual temperature will be above 84 degrees Fahrenheit. The rise of heatwaves will lead to the increased occurrence of droughts and fires, making already unstable areas more dangerous to live in and prone to violence.[34]
The notion of 'environmental migrant' has been a part of popular culture at least sinceThe Grapes of Wrath, a 1939 novel byJohn Steinbeck.[35]
Media related toEnvironmental migrants at Wikimedia Commons
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