Declinism is the belief that asociety orinstitution is tending towardsdecline. Particularly, it is the predisposition, caused bycognitive biases such asrosy retrospection, to view the past more favourably and the future more negatively.[1][2][3]
"The great summit of declinism" according toAdam Gopnick, "was established in 1918, in the book that gave decline its good name in publishing: the German historianOswald Spengler's best-selling, thousand-page workThe Decline of the West."[4]
The belief has been traced back toEdward Gibbon's work[5]The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, published between 1776 and 1788, which argues that theRoman Empire collapsed because of the gradual loss ofcivic virtue among its citizens,[6] who became lazy, spoiled and inclined to hireforeign mercenaries to handle the defence of state. He believed that reason must triumph over superstition to save Europe'sgreat powers from a similar fate to the Roman Empire.[5]
Spengler's bookThe Decline of the West, which gave declinism its popular name,[4] was released in the aftermath ofWorld War I and captured the pessimistic spirit of the times. Spengler wrote that history had seen the rise and fall of several "civilizations" (including the Egyptian, the Classical, the Chinese and the Mesoamerican). He claimed that they go in cycles, typically spanning 1,000 years. Spengler believed thatWestern civilization is in a decline that is inevitable.[5]
The idea thatWestern civilization is declining has been a common historical constant, often repeating variations on the same themes.[7] HistorianArthur L. Herman, in the introduction to his bookThe Idea of Decline in Western History, wrote that:
... intellectuals have been predicting the imminent collapse of Western civilization for more than one hundred and fifty years ... Yet when I point this out as evidence that, to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the demise of the West might be greatly exaggerated, I usually meet with strong skepticism.[7]
Declinism has been described as "a trick of the mind" and as "an emotional strategy, something comforting to snuggle up to when the present day seems intolerably bleak."[8]
One factor in declinism is thereminiscence bump in which older people tend "to best remember events that happened to them at around the ages of 10-30."[2] As one source puts it, "[t]he vibrancy of youth, and the thrill of experiencing things for the first time, creates a 'memory bump' compared with which later life does seem a bit drab."[8] Gopnick suggests that "the idea of our decline is emotionally magnetic, because life is a long slide down, and the plateau just passed is easier to love than the one coming up." Citing the widespread love of "old songs," he writes: "The long look back is part of the long ride home. We all believe in yesterday."[4]
Another factor is thepositivity effect in which "as people get older, they tend to experience fewernegative emotions, and they're more likely to remember positive things over negative things."
Both factors can lead people to experience declinism but so, contrarily, cannegativity bias in which "emotionally negative events are likely to have more impact on your thoughts and behaviours than a similar, but positive, event."[2]
Alan W. Dowd quotesSamuel P. Huntington as saying that declinism "performs a useful historical function" in that it "provides a warning and a goad to action in order to head off and reverse the decline that it says is taking place." Dowd himself agrees, saying that declinism at its best "is an expression of the American tendency towardself-criticism and continual improvement."[9]
Josef Joffe, on the contrary, emphasizes the fact "that obsessively fretting about your possible decline can be a good way to produce it."[4] Similarly, Robert Kagan has expressed concern that Americans are "in danger of committing pre-emptive superpower suicide out of a misplaced fear of their own declining power."[10]
Barbara MacQuade argues that declinism is a central tactic ofauthoritarians, who spreaddisinformation about a bleak future to then appeal tonostalgia and tradition to build support.[11]
The late 1800s (also called thefin de siècle) has been described as the time when "the image of Western decline first took decisive shape".[7] It was widely thought to be a period ofsocial degeneracy, with people hoping for a new beginning.[12] The "spirit" offin de siècle often refers to the cultural hallmarks that were recognized as prominent in the 1880s and 1890s, includingennui,cynicism,pessimism, and "a widespread belief that civilization leads todecadence".[13][14] In Britain, this triggered the "first serious burst of declinism" in governmental economic policy.[15]
The major political theme of the era was that of revolt againstmaterialism,rationalism,positivism,bourgeois society, andliberal democracy.[16] Thefin-de-siècle generation supportedemotionalism,irrationalism,subjectivism, andvitalism,[17] while the mindset of the age saw civilization as being in a crisis that required a massive and total solution.[16] The themes offin de sièclepolitical culture were very controversial and have been cited as a major influence onfascism[16][17] and as a generator of the science ofgeopolitics, including the theory ofLebensraum.[18]
The United States, in particular, has a history of predicting its own downfall, beginning with European settlement.[19] The so-called "American declinism" has been a recurring topic in thepolitics of the United States since the 1950s.[citation needed]
"America is prone to bouts of 'declinism,'"The Economist has noted.[20] The American historianVictor Davis Hanson has identified several successive stages of American declinism. During theGreat Depression, out-of-work Americans viewed the proud, dynamic "New Germany" with envy. In the 1950s, the success ofSputnik 1 and the spread ofcommunism led Americans to fear they were falling behind theSoviet Union. In the 1970s, Americans fretted over Japan's economic boom; two decades later, theEuropean Union seemed the wave of the future. In the 21st century, America's worries have focused on the rise of China, with its massive exports and newmegacities. However, one after another of those concerns, Hanson points out, proved unfounded: "Fascism was crushed; Communism imploded; Japan is aging and shrinking; the European Union is cracking apart."[21]
In a 2011 book,Thomas L. Friedman andMichael Mandelbaum argued that the United States was in the midst of "its fifth wave of Declinism." The first had come "with the 'Sputnik Shock' of 1957," the second with theVietnam War, the third with PresidentJimmy Carter's "malaise" and the rise of Japan, the fourth with the ascendancy of China.[22]
American declinism can suddenly overtake commentators who had previously taken a sanguine view of the country's prospects.Robert Kagan has noted, for example, that the punditFareed Zakaria, who in 2004 "described the United States as enjoying a 'comprehensive uni-polarity' unlike anything seen sinceRome", had by 2008 begun "writing about the 'post-American world' and 'the rise of the rest.'"[10]
In a piece which appeared inThe Nation on 13 June 2017, the authorTom Engelhardt claimed thatDonald Trump was America's "first declinist candidate for president".[23]
The theory of declinism had been noted in theUnited Kingdom. In a 2015 survey, 70% of Britons surveyed agreed with the statement that "things are worse than they used to be," even though at the time Britons were in fact "richer, healthier and longer-living than ever before".[8] However, it was also noted in the survey that many of the things that older people mourned from their youths were no longer existent in modern society.[8]
The British historianRobert Tombs suggested that the United Kingdom has faced several 'bouts' of declinism from as far back as the 1880s, whenGerman competition in manufactured goods was first felt, and then again in the 1960s and 1970s, with economic worries, the rapid dissolution of theBritish Empire and a perception of dwindling power and influence in every field. Tombs however, concluded that "Declinism is at best a distortion of reality" and noted that Britain is still considered a great power by modern standards, even with the dissolution of empire.[24] In the 1960s, social commentators interpretedThe Beatles as a manifestation of social decline.[15]
According toAlexander Stille, France has had a long tradition of books declaring its decline or death as early as the 18th century.[25] Declinism has been described as a "booming industry" with popular authors such asMichel Onfray writing books and articles exploring failings of France andthe West.[26] French declinism has been related to thecounter-Enlightenment of the early 19th century and to the late 1970s with the end of three decades of economic growth after World War II. In modern times, the phenomenon has picked up velocity and cut across the political spectrum with several variations of "déclinisme" emerging fromCatholicreactionaries to nonreligious thinkers questioning national identity and political corruption.[26]
Éric Zemmour's 2014 essayThe French Suicide, which sold 500,000 copies in France, chronicles the supposed decline of the French nation-state[27] and so has been associated with declinist literature.[25]
Declinist literature includes:[28][26]
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