It hasnow become clear to all that the Congress president, Sitaram Kesri cannot betrusted to back any coalition for any length of time unless it suits hispolitical purpose or perhaps individual ambition.
Mamta Banerjee, the fire-brand Bengal leader has sharply criticized Mr.Kesri and his tribe for hobnobbing with the CPI (M) and indirectly scuttling theCongress.
The unseen hand of Sonia Gandhi is trying to soothe tempers. No one knowswhether Mamta Banerjee who commands a large support in west Bengal will finallybow down and campaign for the Congress. Her enemy number one is Jyoti Basu andnot the BJP.
Now this is different from the Congress position which has constantlyattacked the BJP and communal forces as their principal opponents.
The untouchability factor perhaps has not many takers even in the Congressparty. The trouble is that the BJP presents several faces. There is thedictatorial attitude of Mr. Advani and his fascist backers, Vishwa HinduParidshad and the Sena people from Bombay.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee whom the BJP has designated as a prospective PrimeMinister prefers to disguise the communal issue. He wants the party to conteston the all important question of economic development and the uplift of peoplebelow the poverty line.
Those close to Vajpayee argue that he wants the BJP to emerge like theTories in the UK and Republicans in the US.
Vajpayee is a genial man with capacity for hard work and ability for winningfriendship with neighbours and even potential enemies.
But many observers doubt whether Mr. Vajpayee will have a free hand even ifhe is elected to power by some mischance. For the country does not seem to backthe BJP's claim for leading the government.
Some critics say that Vajpayee wears a mask. He conveys a false sense ofcomfort to those who like to see a secular image in BJP's philosophy.
The 14 days of power as Prime Minister left Mr. Vajpayee a wounded politicalanimal. And this makes him a formidable enemy for the Congress party. Mr.Vajpayee's drive to win the maximum number of seats starting from Uttar Pradeshto the south of Vindhya's backed up by Mr. Advani's no holds barred campaign isstill considered a doubtful venture. The BJP's chances will brighten only if theUnited Front - united at the national level and split in the states continues toworsen.
For it is crystal clear that the UF partners are going to oppose each otherwhen ever it suits them. Their coalition is opportunistic and tricky.
They would like the people to believe that they can join hands at the centrewhile killing each other politically in the states. It is difficult to imaginethe UF under Chandra Babu Naidu capturing a larger number of seats than whatthey have now.
Their fond dream is that they can do without the crutches of the Congressparty. For they are used to the back stabbing tactics of Mr. Kesri whom theybelieve is an aspirant for the top job - the Prime Ministership. It is absurd tobelieve that Mr. Kesri can even think of becoming Prime Minister when he lacksthe tact and political wisdom of a leader worthy of such an office.
The gentleman Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral lacked the political finessebut he had charm, ability and a degree of persuasiveness. He had managed tocreate a false sense of security for the coalition. He also succeeded inlaunching the not too successful Gujral doctrine.
Mr. Gujral will be remembered as a Prime Minister who attempted to achievethe impossible but slipped on the political banana skin. It is not known whetherMr. Gujral will once again emerge as Prime Minister although he has the backingof that unpredictable Bihari leader, Laloo Yadav.
For the King maker has returned not to power but to politics.
Regrettably the former Bihar Chief Minister, Laloo Prasad Yadav wassymbolically in the prison. It will be more accurate to say that he was underhouse-arrest and was free to receive political visitors and even visitingministers from other states.
The Laloo factor will keep everybody guessing. If reports are true he hasplenty of cash to run an election campaign. But what he does on a national levelit is difficult to imagine. For the Congress is splitting and is a dividedhouse.
If Mr. Kesri believes that he can bring back the old Congress wallas intothe fold, he is mistaken.
For the Congress is already broken in Uttar Pradesh which once was the seatof power. The BJP has sown the winds of power which they hope to harvest later.
They will face the combined wrath of the Bahujan Samaj Party and theSamjwadi Party. Even if the latter do not fight the battle together, it will notbe easy for the BJP to fight the Congress as well as other political units.
His only hope is Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Yet no one in Delhi is prepared to bet his money on the Congress winningmore seats in UP.
In Orissa the situation is bad enough with Janata Dal splitting. The BJP mayderive some comfort from a weak Congress and even weaker Janata Dal.
The Congress chances in Bihar are supposed to be beefed up by Laloo Yadav.But he will demand his pound of flesh.
Many analysts believe that Laloo Yadav is still caught in the midst ofseveral money scandals.
Legally it seems he has not been cleared of all scams. These cannot bewished away. It is difficult to imagine how the Congress can fight corruptionwhile supporting corrupt forces almost everywhere. It is difficult to imaginehow the Congress can join hands with the ousted Chief Minister, Jayalalitha andstill talk about combating corruption.
Many observers say that Kesri is nursing impossible dreams. He lacks thecharisma to lead the Congress party to victory whatever his admirers in theparty might say. The Congress high command is divided even at the top. You haveJitendra Prasad, Mr. Pilot and some members of the working committee critical ofKesri's political style. They are also depending on the Sonia factor althoughKesri has no admiration for Sonia's ability to conduct an election campaign.
The prospects of a coalition government emerging at the end of the day areclear to many people. Only the BJP and the Congress are fondly hoping that theywill be winners all the way. The question is who leads the coalition.
Will it be the Congress or the BJP. And unless the Congress and the BJP canjoin hands, it will be impossible to form a national government or even a stableadministration. In all these calculations we should not forget the crucial roleof that wily political animal, called Mr. Surjeet, the Communist (M) leader whois the power behind the throne in the UF administration.
Perhaps that was the reason why the Congress stabbed the UF in the back. Asone Congress leader says, "The number of communist MPs in parliament wasnot so large and yet they managed to control the UF. And nothing could happenwithout Surjeet's tacit support.
"We should not allow this to happen again. While the communist movementhas fallen everywhere. Will India be governed by a small communist party lendingits strength to the so-called UF which will be fighting each other at thestate-level.
Altogether it is a confused picture with Laloo Yadav throwing his hat in thering and a series of alignments and re-alignments emerging on the scene. Theelection commission is itself sharply divided on the hot issue of Shiva Sena.
The coming weeks will decide the fate of India. For it is also facing aneconomic crisis although not on the same scale as the ASEAN countries.
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