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AShiny app that combines Community activity recorded in 2022-23, from the NHS England Community ServicesDataset (CSDS), withONS subnational population projections to 2043, to show the projected usage ofcommunity services.

For this app, projections are calculated by financial year, to match the basis period of the CSDS data.

The app provides breakdowns of the data:

• by ICB, as well as providing national figures for England
• by age group
• by service (eg Physiotherapy)
• as a rate per individual patient
• as a rate per 1,000 population of the ICB (based on current boundaries).

The app can show activity in terms of number of contacts (appointments etc), or in terms of the number of individualpatients using the services.

Install the package:

remotes::install_github("The-Strategy-Unit/communities_demographic_growth_tool")

Pull down the source data for the tool from the Databricks system using the functions and steps indata-raw/export.R.(You will need access to Databricks via an auth token).

This should create four folders in your current working directory:

• icb_contacts_final
• icb_patients_final
• nat_contacts_final
• nat_patients_final

These folders contain the source data for the app inparquet format.

Then you can launch the app with:

library(CSDSDemographicGrowthApp)run_app()

The tool's official deployment is on the SU'sConnect server.

It is important to note that the population figures provided by the ONS areprojections, not predictions.This means that they do not take into account potential or expected changes in, for example, national policy aroundmigration, for example, or the risk of major events such as pandemics or climatic events.

The projection used is the principal projection.

The app does not take into account non-demographic change such as mitigations; it is a projection based on 2022/23recorded activity only.

For any questions about using the app, or any technical questions about the code, the datasets or getting the apprunning, contact:

• Fran Barton (francis.barton@nhs.net) or
• Rhian Davies (rhian.davies25@nhs.net)