Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, food prices were already at a record high. 82 million East Africans and 42 million West Africans faced acute food insecurity in 2021.[9] By the end of 2022, more than 8 million Somalis were in need of food assistance.[10] In February 2022, theFood and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a 20% rise in food prices since February 2021.[11] The war further pushed this increase to 40% in March 2022 but was reduced to 18% by January 2023.[5] But the FAO warns that inflation of food prices will continue in many countries.[12]
Increased fuel and transport prices have made food distribution worse and more complex. Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter of maize and wheat. Since then, the Russian invasion crippled supplies. This has resulted in inflation and scarcity of these commodities in dependent countries.[13] Global food reserves have also decreased due to theeffects of climate change on agriculture.[14]
This causedfood riots andfamine in different countries.[15][16][17][18] Furthermore, China acquired 51% of the world supply of wheat, 60% of rice, and 69% of maize stockpiles in the first half of 2022.[19][20] The United States increased its farm production by April 2022, also contributing $215 million in development assistance plus $320 million for the Horn of Africa.[21] Agrain agreement was signed byRussia, Ukraine,Turkey and the United Nations to open Ukrainian ports.[22] This resulted in grain shipment by 27 vessels from Ukraine between June and August 2022 which stalled in October and then resumed in November 2022.[23] In addition, theWorld Bank announced a new $12 billion fund to address the food crises.[24][25]
The World Economic Forum'sGlobal Risks Report 2023 described food supply crises as an ongoing global risk.[26] The Russian invasion of Ukraine and crop failures from climate change worsened worldwidehunger andmalnutrition.[27] EvenGlobal North countries known for stable food supplies have been impacted.[28] Analysts described this inflation as the worst since the2007–2008 world food price crisis.[5] However, in early 2024, the FAO reported a return to more moderate commodities market prices.[29][30] Moreover, theWorld Economic Forum's 2024Global Risks Report showed significantly less concern from experts but the report still highlights a risk of theGaza war and the return ofEl Niño.[31] Both of these events could disrupt supply chains again.[31]
Price increases for certain staples, such as wheat, were expected to most severely affect countries likeEgypt,Turkey, andSomalia inMENA andEast Africa, which rely heavily on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia.[5] This is expected to further hurt prices in regional food markets, such asEthiopia,Kenya, Somalia, andSouth Sudan.[5]
The changes in the food market caused by the invasion of Ukraine further exacerbated existing drought problems in the already vulnerableHorn of Africa.[38] In February, theWorld Food Programme (WFP) andUNICEF had already projected nutrition and hunger gaps for thirteen million people in East Africa.[39] By March, the UN had expanded that number to 20 million people.[40]
The protests, beginning on 6 May in Khuzestan,[51] were initially associated with the risingcost of living. However, they rapidly escalated into anti-Mullah demonstrations.Ranchers in at least 10 cities allegedly staged demonstrations at offices of theIranian Agricultural Ministry, withpensioners participating in similar demonstrations.[44] Large scale demonstrations reportedly broke out in the city ofDezful,[44] and reportedly spread into the cities ofKhafajia,Hawizeh, andShiraz.[52]
During a May 2022 visit to Nigeria, theSecretary-General of the United Nations said the war in Ukraine has made the food, energy, and economic crises worse in Africa as a whole.[6]
On 2 June 2022, Chad declared a national food emergency.[56]
Northern Kenya experienced the worst drought in 40 years that left 4.4 million people acutely food insecure, with 1.2 million facing emergency hunger levels.[57][58] The U.N. Development Program said rising food and energy prices caused by COVID-19 and the Russian war in Ukraine hit Sub-Saharan Africa hardest. Kenyan chapati makers are shrinking the size of their dough balls to make ends meet.[59]
The main cause of thefamine in Yemen is the ongoingYemeni Civil War. Aid often cannot effectively reach the population because of theblockade of Yemen by Saudi Arabia which started in 2015.[60][61] 17.4 million do not have enough food and malnutrition levels in Yemen are among the highest in the world.[62]
By May 2022, wheat prices in Tunisia had risen to over $430 per tonne, more than double the cost from 2021 due to supply interruptions caused by theCOVID-19 pandemic andRussia's invasion of Ukraine. Tunisia imports over 95% of the soft wheat used in its bread, increasing its purchases by $250 million in 2022.[63][64][65]
International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted Consumer Price Index (CPI) inBangladesh to rise to 5.9% by the year 2022. The price of cooking oil, sugar, eggs and chickpeas increased sharply, which contributed a great deal to the inflation. According to theBangladesh Bureau of Statistics, general inflation climbed to 6.17% by February 2022. Government officials link local prices to the global market situation and necessary steps taken to stabilize price hikes due to these conditions. But some experts point to government failures as a cause of the price hikes, in addition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion of Ukraine, 95% of the cooking oil in Bangladesh was imported from overseas. The price of cooking oil per barrel was $700 then, it went up to $1,940 prior to the invasion. The price ofliquified petroleum gas (LPG) also increased 12% by March.[66][67] Overall gouging of food prices resulted inlargescale protests in the country.
Following theTaliban takeover of 2021, Western nations cut much of their humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. This led to a lack of access to food, water, shelter, and health care for much of the Afghani population.[68][69] The Biden administrationfroze about $9 billion of the Afghan central bank's assets, which blocked the Taliban from having access to funds held in US bank accounts.[70] In October 2021, the UN stated that more than half of Afghanistan's 39 million people faced an acute food shortage.[71]
The price increases connected to Russia's invasion of Ukraine may worsen the economic crises in Afghanistan that followed theUS withdrawal.[72] According to the UN, $4.4bn is needed to pay for increased food costs,[73] with human rights experts calling on the US to unblock assets of the Afghan central bank to ease humanitarian crisis.[74]
This section needs to beupdated. The reason given is: past events "expected to" have effects on future events which are now in the past. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(March 2023)
Six out of every 10 Indians are dependent on state-delivered subsidised food. Though early reporting and government policy after the price increases following the war in Ukraine for wheat suggested India was well positioned to export more wheat, by end of April a heatwave that is projected to decrease harvests, increasing local prices, and fertilizer price increases projected a shortfall rather than an export-friendly market.[75] The decrease in harvests was largely driven by the2022 Indian heat wave which is expected to severely reduce the wheat harvest, killing the plants during the final weeks where they are usually growing.[76]
On 20 July 2023, India's government announced that it would stop exporting the widely consumed non-basmatiwhite rice.[80][81] On 25 August 2023, India imposed a 20 percent duty on exports ofparboiled rice.[82]
Extreme price increases for cooking oil sparked student protests and other civil unrest. The national government of Indonesia banned export ofpalm oil.[85] As Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil, and with a harvest decline in the second largest producer and neighborMalaysia, the ban has caused severe global supply chain disruptions and further exacerbated the price increases caused by the loss of Russian and Ukrainian oil exports and failures of soy crops in South America.[85] Following protests by palm farmers, the ban was lifted in late May after being in effect for around three weeks.[86]
Sri Lanka was much more harshly affected by the food crisis as it was already facing mass man-made crop failures due to a total ban on chemical fertilizer by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, resulting in rice production in Sri Lanka falling by 40–50%, while other crops also suffered large losses with some even reaching 70% loss even before it was affected by the Russian crisis. The2022 Sri Lankan protests escalated in part due to food shortages and post-COVID-19 pandemic inflation. By the time government reversed the ban on chemical fertilizer the Russian invasion of Ukraine had caused fertilizer prices to rise making it unaffordable for Sri Lanka which had defaulted on its loans after nearly running out of forex reserves.[87] On 9 May, Sri Lankan Prime MinisterMahinda Rajapaksa resigned from his position after protests on the country'seconomic crisis turned violent.[88][89][90]
Immediately following the invasion of Russia, some foods saw shortages throughout Europe, such as this empty shelf for vegetable oil in the Netherlands.
Europe'senergy crisis and the2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine caused significant price increases for Europeanfertilizer andfood industries.[91][92] According to Julia Meehan, the head of fertilizers for the commodity price firm ICIS, "We are seeing record prices for every fertilizer type, which are all way above the previous highs in 2008. It's very, very serious. People don't realize that 50% of the world's food relies on fertilizers."[93]
Starting on 21 February 2023,supermarkets in theUnited Kingdom, such asAsda,Morrisons andTesco, beganrationing fruit and vegetables.[97]The Telegraph gave the cause as "poor foreign harvests and adomestic farming crisis".[98] Theshortages were expected to last several weeks, and in a YouGov poll, 61% of UK respondents said they had personally noticed or experienced food shortages in their local shop or supermarket during mid-to-late February.[99] Research from Kantar showed grocery price inflation hit its highest level since records began in 2008, with food inflation reaching 17.1% in February.[100]
Along with protests and civil unrest against thegovernment of Haiti in response to rising energy prices and the rising cost of living, as well as armedgang violence and an outbreak ofcholera, Haiti is experiencing widespreadacute hunger. On 14 October 2022, the WFP reported that a record 4.7 million people (almost half of the country's population) are currently facing acute hunger in Haiti;[101][102] using theIntegrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale, the WFP classified 19,000 of those people as belonging to the fifth and highest level on the scale, the "Catastrophe" phase (IPC 5).[101][102]
The 2022 food crises have added to the mountinginflation in Chile has experienced since 2020. Measured by the change in theÍndice de Precios al Consumidor, the (IPC) in March 2022 relative to March 2021 indicated an inflation rate of 1.9%, the highest known since October 1993.[104] Bread and meat prices increased as well as those of food in general.[104]Cooking oil prices have risen, with a particular brand at a Santiago supermarket experiencing a 90% price increase from April 2021 to April 2022.[105]
The inflation in food prices is thought to be behind an increasing number of supermarketcredit cards issued in 2022 as well as increasing rates of supermarket credit carddebt default.[105] In April 2022, PresidentGabriel Boric announced a $3.7 billion economic recovery plan that included an increase in the minimum wage to help people deal with rising prices.[106] Supermarkets belonging toCencosud begun rationing cooking oil, rice and flour in late April.[107]
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted food supply chains around the world, disrupting distribution channels at the consumption and distribution stages of thefood industry. A rise in fuel and transport prices further increased the complexity of distribution as food competed with other goods. At the same time, significantfloods andheatwaves in 2021 destroyed key crops in the Americas and Europe.[7]
Natural gas is a major feedstock for the production ofammonia, via theHaber process, for use infertilizer production.[108] The development of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer has significantly supported globalpopulation growth — it has been estimated that almost half the people on the Earth are currently fed as a result of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use.[109]
Since 2021, the2021–2023 global energy crisis has spread to the fertilizer andfood industries.[110][111][112][113] According to Julia Meehan, the head of fertilizers for the commodity price agency ICIS, "We are seeing record prices for every fertiliser type, which are all way above the previous highs in 2008. It's very, very serious. People don't realise that 50% of the world's food relies on fertilisers."[114] The impact of agricultural input costs, including fertilizer and fuels, on food prices has been shown to be larger than the effect of the curtailment of food exports from Russia and Ukraine.[115]
From February 2 to April 1, Russia banned the export of ammonium nitrate (AN) to guarantee supplies for domestic farmers following the spike in globalfertilizer prices, which were impacted by rising costs for natural gas.[116][117] The conflict has affected virtually all economies, however, the most affected economies are in Europe and Africa. Most of these economies have explored to find alternative food supply chain partners and solutions in North America, South America, the Middle East, Australasia, and some regions of Asia and Africa that have been less affected by this conflict.[117]
Wheat prices surged to their highest prices since 2008 in response to the 2022 attacks.[118] Ukraine accounted for 10% of global wheat exports.[119] At the time of the invasion, Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter ofcorn and wheat, and the world's largest exporter ofsunflower oil, with Russia and Ukraine together responsible for 27% of the world'swheat exports and 53% of the world's sunflowers and seeds.[120] The head of theWorld Food Programme,David Beasley, warned in March that the war in Ukraine could take theglobal food crisis to "levels beyond anything we've seen before".[121]
A potential disruption to global wheat supplies could exacerbate the ongoinghunger crisis in Yemen,[122]Afghanistan[123][124] andEast Africa.[125] The American Bakers Association president warned that the price of anything made withgrain would begin rising as all the grain markets are interrelated. The chief agricultural economist forWells Fargo stated that Ukraine will likely be severely limited in their ability to plant crops in spring 2022 and lose an agricultural year, while an embargo on Russian crops would create more inflation of food prices. Recovering crop production capabilities may take years even after fighting has stopped.[126]
Surging wheat prices resulting from the conflict have strained African countries such asEgypt, which are highly dependent uponRussian andUkrainian wheat exports, and have provoked fears of social unrest.[127] At least 25 African countries import a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and 15 of them import more than half from those two countries.[128] On 24 February, the Chinese government announced that it would drop all restrictions on Russian wheat as part of an agreement that had been reached earlier in February;[129] theSouth China Morning Post called this a potential "lifeline" for the Russian economy.[130]
Multiple heat, flooding, and drought events between 2020 and 2022 significantly hurt global food supplies and reserves. These weather events, which have been connected withclimate change, made the food system less resilient to shocks like the war in Ukraine. Global reserves of wheat were extremely low at the beginning of 2022 because of these weather events.[131] During the year 2022, many similar events connected to climate change continue to severely reduce agriculture production in the world.[14]
There are numerous effects ofclimate change on agriculture, many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide globalfood security. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due towater scarcity caused bydrought,heat waves andflooding.[132] Theseeffects of climate change can also increase the risk of several regions suffering simultaneouscrop failures. Currently this risk is rare but if these simultaneous crop failures occur, they could have significant consequences for the global food supply.[133][134] Manypests andplant diseases are expected to become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world'slivestock are expected to be affected by many of the same issues. These issues range from greaterheat stress toanimal feed shortfalls and the spread ofparasites andvector-borne diseases.[132]: 746
Extensive research exists on the effects of climate change on individual crops, particularly on the fourstaple crops:corn (maize),rice,wheat andsoybeans. These crops are responsible for around two-thirds of all calories consumed by humans (both directly and indirectly as animal feed).[137] The research investigates important uncertainties, for examplefuture population growth, which will increase global food demand for the foreseeable future.[138] The future degree ofsoil erosion andgroundwater depletion are further uncertainties. On the other hand, a range of improvements to agricultural yields, collectively known as theGreen Revolution, has increased yields per unit of land area by between 250% and 300% since 1960. Some of that progress will likely continue.[132]: 727
Researchers have proposedgene editing as a solution,[139] a technology with the potential to alleviate global food shortages by enhancing crop yields and increasing the resilience of crops to unpredictable climate fluctuations.
Drought in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
A drought in East Africa began in 2021 and further intensified in 2022, precipitated in part by the oncomingLa Niña in 2022.[38][142] Three rainy seasons failed in the Horn of Africa, destroying crops and killing large herds of livestock.[38] In Somalia, five rainy seasons have failed, Kenya and Sudan were also strongly affected.[14] TheUN identified 20 million people at risk of famine.[38] Both wildlife and livestock have been killed by the drought.[38] The region is especially vulnerable because an extreme wet season caused the2019–2022 locust infestation, which destroyed large regions of crops.[38]
By early October 2021, nearly a year after theTigray War started,Mark Lowcock, who ledOCHA during part of the Tigray War, stated that theEthiopian federal government wasdeliberately starving Tigray, "running a sophisticated campaign to stop aid getting in" and that there was "not just an attempt to starve six million people but an attempt to cover up what's going on."[143]
82 million East Africans and 42 million West Africans faced acute food insecurity in 2021.[144]
By the end of 2022, more than 8 million Somalis were in need of food assistance – roughly half ofSomalia's population.[145][146] The rainy season of 2022 was recorded to be the driest in over 40 years,[147][148] with an estimated 43,000 in Somalia dying in 2022.[149]
In mid-2021, a severe drought in southernMadagascar caused hundreds of thousands of people to suffer from food insecurity.[150][151] In October 2022, UNICEF contributed with $23 million for children suffering from the famine,[18] with a third of the population suffering from the disaster, according to researchers cited by theFinancial Times.[152]
Drought significantly reduced harvests in North America including the United States which produces a quarter of the world grains. The years from 2020 to 2021 were the driest in centuries in North America. The production of crops in theMidwest declined by 20% in this period.[14]
Droughts inSpain andPortugal during early 2022 led to 60–80% loss predictions for crops in some areas.[8] The huge amount of precipitation in March and early April 2022 in mainland Spain provided relief but did not fully revert the ongoing meteorological drought.[153] Fruit crops in most of Europe were damaged by a cold wave that caused freezing rain, frost, and snow during early budding, after a period of unseasonably early warm weather.[154]
Additional drought inItaly, has reduced the flow of fresh water near thePo river, which is responsible for 40% of crop production in the country.Salt water intrusion is expected to greatly reduce the viability of crop production in areas near the delta.[155]
In February 2023, theUK Government called the major supermarket bosses to discuss on filling the salads restock. As country is entering the pick shortage in third week. Some biggest Britain's grocery shops,Tesco (TSCO.L),Asda,Morrisons andAldi, restricted the supply of cucumber, tomatoes and peppers to customers, due to unreasonable weather conditions, which brought shortage in supplies from southern Europe and North Africa. The crisis worsened due to less winter production in greenhouse of Britain and theNetherlands effected due to high energy cost. Both factors affected the shortage of food in Britain Supermarket.[156][157][158]
During the2022 food crises, India began taking steps to export more rice and wheat, in part to fill the gaps created by theRussian invasion of Ukraine.[159] However, the heatwave caused increasing local prices and lower supply, issues also exacerbated by the war increasing fertilizer prices.[160] The heatwave occurred mostly during the final weeks of the wheat growing season, killing the plants shortly before harvest.[161][162]
The heatwave significantly impacted agriculture in India. At the same time early rainfall in India was 71% lower than the norm. In Punjab, the main crop producer in India, 15% of the harvest was lost and in some regions even 30%.[163] The heatwave caused a reverse in policy by Indian government, from trying to import to address the crises, to halting exports.[164]
The heatwave has also severely impacted peach and apple harvests inBalochistan.[165]
A heatwave that deeply affectedArgentina,Uruguay,Paraguay, and Southern Brazil caused yield declines for maize,soy, and other key grains, resulting in significant global commodity price increases.[166][167][168][169] The heatwave further exacerbated an already dry season in much of the region.[169] Drought made 28% of the agricultural territory of Brazil "no longer climatically optimal"[14]
A severe flood inNew South Wales during February 2022 caused the complete destruction of soy andrice crops and 36% ofmacadamia nut production.[170] Animal herds and farming infrastructure were also severely damaged by the flooding, which was the third major natural disaster to agriculture communities in the region.[171]
In a May 2022 editorial for the Guardian, environmentalGeorge Monbiot described part of the collapse of food supply, a problem of concentration of supply in a handful of supply chains through the "Global Standard Diet" making the food system vulnerable to critical failures.[172] He compared the food system failures to the 2008 banking crises, in terms of similar structural problems of concentration of economic power.[172]
InChina, rollinglockdowns as part of azero-COVID policy significantly reduced key agricultural inputs for important grain crops.[173] Before that, China already maintained its food stockpiles at a "historically high level" in 2021, because of anongoing trade war with the United States. The deal and negotiation with U.S. and Australia could also be prodding China to buy food reserves.[174]
Ethanol fuel makes up about 10% of motor vehicle gasoline produced and consumed in 2021, and around 40% of maize grown is used for ethanol fuel in the United States each year. Because it is 33% less efficient thanpetroleumgasoline miles driven from ethanol is less than 10%.[175][176][177]
Risingmeat consumption means a corresponding increase in demand foranimal feed, especially maize and soybeans, which contributes to higher food prices.[178][179]
By the first half of the agricultural year 2022, according to theU.S. Department of Agriculture, China acquired 50% of the world supply of wheat, 60% of rice, and 69% of maize.[19] China has maintained its food stockpiles at a "historically high level", contributing to higher global food prices.[180][181] Bloomberg columnistAdam Minter wrote that "For China, such stockpiles are necessary to ensure it won't be at the mercy of major food exporters such as the U.S."[180]
TheBiden administration responded to the growing shortages in April by trying to increase US farm production. The US policy community was worried about China or other countries filling the food gap. Obstruction in theUS Congress prevented new funding and resources for the crises.[131] A group of 160 advocacy groups challenged funding cuts by the Biden administration and Congress toUSDA programs.[182]
On 18 May 2022, the US announced $215 million in development assistance to mitigate the crises.[21] This was in addition to $320 million for the Horn of Africa.[21]
Germany is working on a proposal to phase out the use ofbiofuels produced from food crops by 2030.[183] Up to 40% of corn produced in the US is used to makeethanol,[184] and worldwide 10% of all grain is turned into biofuel.[185] A 50% reduction in grain used for biofuels in the US and Europe would replace all of Ukraine's grain exports.[186]
On 30 June 2022, Russia withdrew its troops fromSnake Island to not obstruct U.N. attempts to open a humanitarian corridor allowing grains to be shipped from Ukraine. On 16 July, major news outlets reported that Kyiv is definitely a step closer to being able to export grain through its Black Sea ports after talks with Russia, facilitated byTurkey, and theUnited Nations.[187] Russia was accused of blocking crucial shipments of grains from Ukrainian ports but claims its exports are impacted by economic sanctions. On 23 July, Russia shelled the port ofOdesa which had recently been unlocked.[188][189]
The first shipment since thegrain agreement was set off for Lebanon, where theSierra Leone-flagged ship Razoni carried the cargo of corn.[22] As of August 20, the total number of vessels leaving Ukraine in accordance with the agreement reached 27.[23]
On 14 September 2022, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reiterated his concerns over a constrained fertilizer supply from Russia due to the2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions. According to the source, UN diplomats held discussions to re-open theTogliatti–Odesa pipeline carryingammonia. PresidentVolodymyr Zelenskyy had offered such a move in exchange for the release ofprisoners of war held by Russia. ButTASS news agency quoted Kremlin spokesmanDmitry Peskov, who dismissed such an idea, as saying "are people and ammonia the same thing?".[190]
On 29 October 2022, Russia suspended participation in grain initiative.[192] However, vessel traffic will resume on November 3.[193]
On 17 July 2023, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin withdrew from a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain across the Black Sea despite a wartime blockade,[194][195] risking deepening the global food crisis and antagonizing neutral countries in theGlobal South.[196] Following Putin's withdrawal from the grain deal, Russia launched a series ofattacks on the Ukrainian port cities ofOdesa andMykolaiv.[197][191] Russia's Defense Ministry said the strikes were in retaliation for the2023 Crimean Bridge explosion, but Ukraine said Russia was attacking civilian infrastructure linked to grain exports.[198]
Kenyan senior foreign ministry official Abraham Korir Sing'Oei said that Russia's decision "to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a stab [in] the back" and the resulting rise in global food prices "disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted" by theworst drought in four decades.[194][199]
TheWorld Bank announced a new $12 billion fund to address the food crises.[24][25]
In May 2022, Máximo Torero, chief economist at the U.N.Food and Agriculture Organization, warned European politicians that if they move away from natural gas production too soon, the price offertilizers will rise and more people in the world will suffer from hunger.[200]
In May 2022, theUnited Nations called for Russia to facilitate the reopening of Ukrainian grain ports to mitigate the global food crises.[201]
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