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Vaticinium ex eventu (Classical Latin:[wäːt̪ɪˈkɪnɪ.ʊ̃ˑɛkseːˈwɛn̪t̪uː], "prophecy from the event") orpost eventum ("after the event") is a technicaltheological orhistoriographical term referring to aprophecy written after the author already had information about the events being "foretold". The text is written so as to appear that the prophecy had taken place before the event, when in fact it was written after the events supposedly predicted.Vaticinium ex eventu is a form ofhindsight bias. The concept is similar topostdiction.
The Babylonian "Marduk Prophecy", a text describing the travels of the Marduk idol fromBabylon, "prophesies" of the statue's seizure during the sack of the city byMursilis I in 1531 BC,Assyria, whenTukulti-Ninurta I overthrewKashtiliash IV in 1225 BC and took the idol toAssur, andElam, whenKudur-Nahhunte ransacked the city and pilfered the statue around 1160 BC. A copy[1] was found in the House of the Exorcist at Assur, whose contents date from 713–612 BC and is closely related thematically to anothervaticinium ex eventu text called the Shulgi prophecy, which probably followed it in a sequence of tablets. Both compositions present a favorable view of Assyria.
TheBook of Daniel utilizesvaticinium ex eventu, by its seeming foreknowledge of events fromAlexander the Great's conquest up to the persecution ofAntiochus IV Epiphanes in the summer of 164 BCE.[2][3][4] The stories of the first half are legendary in origin, and the visions of the second the product of anonymous authors in theMaccabean period (2nd century BCE).[5] Its inclusion inKetuvim (Writings) rather thanNevi'im (Prophets) was likely because it appeared after the canon for those books had closed, and the dominant view among Jews and scholars is that Daniel is not in any case a prophetic book but anapocalypse.
Statements attributed toJesus in theGospels that foretell the destruction of Jerusalem (e.g.,Mark 13:14,[6]Luke 21:20[7]) and itsSecond Temple are considered to be examples ofvaticinia ex eventu by the great majority ofBiblical scholars[8] (with regard tothe siege of Jerusalem in AD 70, in which theSecond Temple was destroyed).[9][6] However, there are some scholars who only see the verses from Luke as constituting avaticinium ex eventu (and those of Mark not),[6] while a few even go as far as to deny that the verses from Luke refer to the destruction of the temple in AD 70.[9]
The consensus of modern biblical scholarship is that the book was composed in the second century B.C., that it is a pseudonymous work, and that it is indeed an example of prophecy after the fact.
The book of Daniel becomes foundational for the Jewish or Jewish-Christian millenarian vision of the future that became paradigmatic [...]. [...] One of the great ironies in the history of Western ideas is that Daniel's influence on subsequent Jewish and Christian views of the future had such a remarkable influence, given that everything predicted by Danielutterly failed! [...] One might expect that a book that had proven itself to be wrong on every count would have long since been discarded as misguided and obsolete, but, in fact, the opposite was the case. Daniel's victory was a literary one. [...] Daniel not only survived but its influence increased. The book of Daniel became the foundational basis ofall Jewish and Christian expressions of apocalyptic millenarianism for the next two thousand years. [...] Daniel is the clearest example from this period of the "when prophecy fails" syndrome [...]
