Anupset occurs in acompetition, frequently inelectoral politics orsports, when the party popularly expected to win (the "favorite") is defeated by (or, in the case of sports, ties with) anunderdog whom the majority expects to lose, defying theconventional wisdom. It is often used in reference to beating thebetting odds in sports, or beating theopinion polls in electoral politics.
The meaning of the word "upset" has long included "an overthrowing or overturn of ideas, plans, etc." (seeOED definition 6b), from which the sports definition almost surely derived. "Upset" also once referred to "a curved part of a bridle-bit, fitting over the tongue of the horse", (now the port of acurb bit), but even though the modern sports meaning of "upset" was first used far more for horse races than for any other competition, there is no evidence of a connection.[citation needed]
In 2002, George Thompson, a lexicographic researcher, used the full-text online search capabilities ofThe New York Times databases to trace the usage of the verbto upset and the nounupset. The latter was seen in usage as early as 1877.[2]
Heading into the2007 college football season, theMichigan Wolverines were ranked as the pre-season Number 5 team, and among the favorites for that year'sBCS National Championship. As an early season tune-up game, Michigan had booked the lower divisionAppalachian State Mountaineers for theirfirst game of the season. The Mountaineers surprised the football world by leading 28–17 at the half. Though Michigan clawed their way back to lead 32–31 late into the fourth quarter, the Mountaineers kicked a field goal with 26 seconds left in the game to take the lead 34–32. Michigan managed to use only 20 seconds of game time to drive the ball down to the App State 27-yard line, and as time was expiring the Mountaineers'Corey Lynch blocked a Michigan field goal attempt to secure the upset for App State. The game marked only the second time, to that point, that a lower-division school had beaten a top-division AP-ranked team.[3]
Howard University, aFCS team, entered as a 45-point road underdog againstUNLV and stunned the Rebels 43–40 in Las Vegas. By point-spread standards, Howard pulled off the biggest upset in modern college football history.[4]
InSuper Bowl III, the seniorNational Football League was playing their third interleague championship game against the upstartAmerican Football League. The NFL had won the prior two matchups without much difficulty, and it looked poised to do so again, as theBaltimore Colts, with a 13–1 record, behindquarterbackEarl Morrall, who led the league in touchdown passes that season and was named NFL Most Valuable Player. The team also had several future Hall of Fame players on the roster, including quarterbackJohnny Unitas, relegated to a back-up role following an early-season injury,tight endJohn Mackey, as well as a defense led by perennial all-proBubba Smith. TheNew York Jets were led byJoe Namath at quarterback, who earlier in the week had "guaranteed" victory against the Colts. Namath's top target, future Hall of Fame wide receiverDon Maynard, was hobbled by an injury, but Namath led the Jets on a run-focused attack that leaned heavily on fullbackMatt Snell, who ran for 121 yards and scored the Jets' only touchdown. The Jets defense confounded Morrall, who had only six completions on 17 attempts, with three interceptions in the first half, including an interception to the Jets'Jim Hudson while Colts' star receiverJimmy Orr, uncovered near the end zone, waved his hands to no avail. Colts' head coachDon Shula put the hobbled Unitas in the game in the second half, and despite a late game touchdown, lost the game 16–7.[5]
Leicester City F.C., an English football club, were crowned champions of the2015–16 Premier League. The club had narrowly avoided the relegation the previous season by finishing 14th and being in the bottom of the table the most part of the season. At the beginning of the season, bookmakers had given Leicester City odds of 5000/1 against them winning the league. It was the firstEnglish title in their history.
A major upset in Spanish football was theAlcorconazo, when in the first leg of a2009–10 Copa del ReyAD Alcorcón won overReal Madrid 4–0.[9] Real Madrid is one of the largest clubs in Spanish football and the world while Alcorcón team played in the third-tierSegunda División B. Because Real Madrid won the second leg only 1–0, Alcorcón advanced victorious to the next round. The half-time substitution ofGuti when the score was 3–0 and when he was booked before was another topic in the Spanish press because of words exchanged between the player and his coach,Manuel Pellegrini.[10]
In Soviet football, there existed a prize that, among others, was awarded at the end of theSoviet Top League season to the team within the league that performed the best against the league's top three finishers. First awarded in 1976, it was known as the "Thunder (fear-strike) of the elites" or "Danger of the elites".[11] The award was presented by the "Moskovskaya Pravda" newspaper supplement, known as "Sportivnaya Moskva".
The1906 World Series looked to be one of the most lopsided matchups inWorld Series history, as theNational League powerhouseChicago Cubs, with a record of 116–36, represented the best winning percentage in modernMajor League Baseball history. They faced off against their cross-town rivals, theChicago White Sox, who finished with theAmerican League pennant having a record of 93–58. The White Sox were dubbed the "hitless wonders" as their .230 teambatting average was not only the worst batting average by a team to win their league pennant, it was the worst overall batting average in all of Major League Baseball that season. Buoyed by a pitching staff that held the Cubs to abelow .200 batting average for the series, the White Sox showed an uncharacteristic surge of batting prowess in games 5 and 6 with 16 runs on 26 hits over the two games to claim the World Series crown four games to two in what has been called the biggest upset in MLB history.[12]
In the1985 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, theGeorgetown Hoyas had won theprevious national championship, and looked poised to win their second straight, as they entered the1985 national championship as the defending national champion with the Number 1 overall seed, as well as the Number 1 seed in the East Region, posting a record of 35–2, including aBig East tournament title. Their opponent and Big East rival, the Number 8 seedVillanova Wildcats, entered the national championship with a 24–10 record. Villanova defeated Georgetown, 66–64, in what has been considered one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament history. As of2022, this is the only time an 8th-seeded team has won the NCAA tournament and the 1984–85 Villanova team remains the lowest-seeded team to win the NCAA tournament.
TheStanford Cardinal entered the1998 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament with the Number 1 seed in the West Region, posting a record of 21–5, including a Pac-10 regular season title. Their opponent, the Number 16 seedHarvard Crimson, entered the tournament with a 22–4 record and anIvy League regular season title. Before this match, no Number 1 seed had ever fallen to a Number 16 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994.Harvard defeated Stanford, 71–67, in what has been considered the biggest upset in NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament history. 20 years later, a Number 16 seed had beaten a Number 1 seed in men's tournament (see below).
TheVirginia Cavaliers entered the2018 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament with the Number 1 overall seed, as well as the Number 1 seed in the South Region, posting a record of 31–2, including both an ACC regular season title andACC tournament title. Their opponent, Number 16 seedUMBC, entered the tournament with a 24–10 record and anAmerica East tournament title. Before this match, no Number 1 seed had ever fallen to a Number 16 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.UMBC defeated Virginia, 74–54, in what has been considered the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history.[13]
Entering thefirst round of the 2007 NBA Playoffs, theDallas Mavericks had the best record in all ofNBA at 67–15, six games up on second place, while their first round opponent, theGolden State Warriors, had a 42–40 record and had only qualified for the tournament on the last day of the regular season, having needed to win all of their last five games just to qualify. Dallas was captained bypower forwardDirk Nowitzki, who was in the midst of a Hall-of-Fame career that would feature 14 all star appearances, and supported by other star players such asJason Terry,Jerry Stackhouse,Devin Harris, andJosh Howard. Golden State had completely revamped their team mid-season, including two starters (Stephen Jackson andAl Harrington), who arrived in January in a blockbuster 8-player deal with theIndiana Pacers.Baron Davis was the unquestioned star of the playoff run, as he dominated the Mavericks, averaging 25.3 points, 6.5 assists, and 2.9 steals per game, as the Warriors would knock off the Mavericks four games to two.[14]
Entering thesecond round of the 2020 NBA Playoffs, theLos Angeles Clippers, under the guidance by championship head coachDoc Rivers, were widely regarded as frontrunners for the championship. Armed with star talents likeKawhi Leonard, who came off a championship win with theToronto Raptors, andPaul George, a previous MVP candidate and first-team All-Defensive player, and defensive guardPatrick Beverley, the Clippers had high expectations. Their deep bench, featuringMontrezl Harrell andLou Williams, added to their championship aspirations, while their strong defensive prowess further solidified their position. However, theDenver Nuggets, guided by the dynamic duo ofJamal Murray andNikola Jokić, emerged as formidable challengers. Murray's explosive scoring prowess, highlighted by a remarkable 40-point performance in Game 7, combined with Jokić's extraordinary playmaking and versatility as a center, were instrumental in fueling the Nuggets' remarkable comeback. This unforeseen development showcased the Nuggets' remarkable resilience and their strategic acumen in exploiting the Clippers' defensive weaknesses. In contrast, the Clippers' star players faltered significantly in the crucial Game 7, with Leonard managing only 14 points and a 6-of-22 shooting performance, and George contributing a mere 10 points at a shooting efficiency of 25%, including a notable miss that hit the side of the backboard during a 3-point attempt. Notably, both stars were unable to score in the 4th quarter. This series of events culminated in a stunning reversal, as the Clippers lost their dominant 3–1 series lead, becoming the 12th team in NBA history to do so. The Nuggets, driven by the exceptional performances of Murray and Jokić, clinched a victory in what became one of the most unexpected and memorable upsets in recent NBA playoff history.[15]
Entering thefirst round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, theMilwaukee Bucks earned the inauguralMaurice Podoloff Trophy as the NBA's best regular season team with a 58–24 record, while their first round opponent, theMiami Heat, had a 44–38 record, had won their second straightSoutheast Division, had qualified for the playoffs for the fourth straight year, and earned the eighth spot in theEastern Conference. Despite losing to theAtlanta Hawks 116–105 in the firstplay-in tournament game, Miami bounced back and defeated theChicago Bulls 102–91 in the final play-in tournament game. Milwaukee was coached byMike Budenholzer, who is a two-time NBA Coach of the Year and won the NBA championship in 2021. The Miami Heat knocked off the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, in what has been considered one of the biggest upsets in NBA playoffs history. This made the Heat the first number 8 seed to win a playoff series after qualifying for the play-in tournament. This also made the Bucks the sixth number 1 seed to lose a playoff series in the opening round (the others being the1994 SuperSonics,1999 Heat,2007 Mavericks,2011 Spurs, and2012 Bulls).
In the1983 Cricket World Cup, the third edition of the tournament, theWest Indies cricket team had won both of the previous two World Cups and looked poised to win their third. Their opponent in the finals,India, had never made it out of the group stage before 1983. India went to bat first, and managed 183 before being dismissed with five overs left. West Indies star batsman,Viv Richards, hit a hook towards the leg-side boundary, where Indian captainKapil Dev made a running catch to get out the West Indies best batsman. Among the remaining batsman, onlyJeff Dujon managed more than 20 runs, and West Indies were bowled out at 140, giving India their first World Cup.[16]
Entering themedal round of the 1980 Winter Olympics, theSoviet Union had won four consecutive gold medals of the previous four Winter Olympics and were heavily favored to win another gold medal. Their opponent, theUnited States, consisted entirely of collegiate and amateur players and under head coachHerb Brooks, had finished second in Blue Division behindSweden (based on goal difference) and qualified for the medal round. The U.S. pulled off a 4–3 upset over the Soviets, in what has since become known as the "Miracle on Ice". After that loss, the Soviets pummeled Sweden to settle for silver, while the U.S. went on to win gold after defeatingFinland.
Entering thefirst round of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs, theTampa Bay Lightning earned thePresidents' Trophy as theNHL's best regular season team with a 62–16–4 record (128 points), while their first round opponent, theColumbus Blue Jackets, had a 47–31–4 record (98 points), had qualified for the playoffs for the third straight year and earned the second wild card spot in theEastern Conference. TheBlue Jackets swept the Lightning in four games and won the playoff series for the first time in franchise history, in what has been considered the biggest upset in Stanley Cup playoffs history. This marks the first time in Stanley Cup playoffs history that the Presidents' Trophy winners were swept in the opening round.
Entering the2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, theBoston Bruins had set new NHL records for single-season wins and points, finishing with a 65–12–5 record (135 points), and earning the President's Trophy. By contrast, their first round opponent, theFlorida Panthers, had narrowly qualified for the playoffs, finishing with a 42–32–8 record (92 points), and clinching an Eastern Conference wild card berth one day after their penultimate regular-season game. The Panthers defeated the Bruins in seven games, rallying from a 3–1 series deficit and winning three straight games to eliminate Boston; additionally, the team advanced to the second round of the playoffs for just the third time in franchise history. The 43-point difference between the two teams represented the largest upset by standings position of any best-of-seven playoff series in NHL history.[17][non-primary source needed]
Entering the2025 IIHF World Championship playoff round, 1-seed and 28-time championCanada was the strongest team in the tournament, and was favored to make the final round. Their quarterfinals opponent, 7-seedDenmark, had never made the semifinals of the World Championships, additionally never finishing higher than 8th place overall. After a 0–0 tie for the majority of the game,Travis Sanheim scored just after the 47-minute mark to give Canada a 1–0 lead. Denmark subsequently scored two goals in the final three minutes of the game, withNikolaj Ehlers tying the game at 1 just before the 58-minute mark, andNick Olesen scoring with 49 seconds left to give Denmark a 2–1 lead and ultimately the victory. Owing to Canada's dynastic status in international ice hockey, and Denmark's comparatively minimal level of success, the game was considered one of the largest upsets in ice hockey history.[18][19]
Ester Ledecká won the gold medal insuper-G alpine skiing at the2018 Winter Olympics, after finishing 0.01 seconds ahead of the 2014 Olympics defending gold medalistAnna Veith, who had already been proclaimed the winner by many media outlets.[20][21] Ledecká was ranked 49th in the event before the Olympics and had never medalled in any World Cup level international skiing event.[22]
Below is a list of elections which have extensively been described as upsets by a number of major media sources. It is not meant to be comprehensive, merely representative.
2015 Queensland state election: Three years after the electorate voted out theAnna Bligh's Labor state government in favour of theLiberal National Party (LNP) underCampbell Newman in a massive landslide, reducingLabor to just 7 seats in the 89 seat state parliament, Labor returned to power on a massive swing, forming aminority government. The LNP lead in the opinion polls and the overwhelming size of the LNP majority made it appear that its defeat was extremely unlikely.[28]
2025 federal election: The Australian Labor government ofAnthony Albanese won a second term by a landslide, in the party's second-best ever result in Australian history, despite the polls showing a tight race in the lead up to the election amidst wide expectations that there would be a hung parliament.Peter Dutton, leader of theLiberal-National Coalition, unexpectedly lost his seat to Labor candidateAli France in the 2025 federal election. This result made him the first federal opposition leader in Australian history to lose their seat while serving in the role.[32] The Greens, also surprisingly, lost 3 out of 4 existing lower house seats they held, including its leader,Adam Bandt.
2021 parliamentary election:Opinion polls had shownANO 2011 as the clear front-runner[37] whileSpolu was polling second. No opinion poll placed SPOLU in the first place and it was widely believed that ANO 2011 would win the election.[38][39] Eventually Spolu received the higher number of votes and its leaderPetr Fiala became the new Prime Minister.[40]
2024 French legislative election: When polls indicated that the National Rally, underMarine Le Pen, would win an outright majority after winning the first round of the election, they were unexpectedly beaten by theNew Popular Front, a four-party left-wing alliance.[48]
2024 Indian general election: The governingBharatiya Janata Party led by Prime MinisterNarendra Modi (in power since2014) unexpectedly lost its majority in the Lok Sabha, despite opinion polls predicting them expanding their majority. Despite this, its alliance, theNDA, won a majority of seats, requiring a coalition government.[53][54][55]
In the2020 Irish general electionSinn Féin, a left-wing party long associated with theProvisional IRA paramilitary group, secured the highest vote in the State. It was the first time since 1923 that a party other than the long-dominant centrist rivalsFianna Fáil andFine Gael had won the popular vote. The result had come as a major surprise to Sinn Féin itself who did not run enough candidates to take full advantage of thesingle transferable vote system.[56][57][58]
2023 general election: The results of the election were described as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[64] with the right-wing populistParty for Freedom (PVV), led byGeert Wilders, becoming the largest party in the House of Representatives.
2024 general election: ThePML-N party led by three-time formerPrime MinisterNawaz Sharif was viewed as the favourite to win, with Sharif expected to easily become Prime Minister for a fourth time. Sharif was perceived as the favourite of the powerfulmilitary establishment, likely to counter their common adversary, jailed former Prime MinisterImran Khan. Despite this, candidates affiliated with Khan'sPTI party emerged as the largest group on election night. This was seen as an exceptionally unlikely outcome, since the party was forced to field their candidates asindependents after anunfavourable ruling in the Supreme Court, which severely limited their campaigning operations.[65][66][67]
2004 Isabela gubernatorial election: Broadcast journalistGrace Padaca defeated incumbentIsabela governor Faustino Dy Jr., the third consecutive member of the Dypolitical family to hold the post. Padaca's win ended the Dy family's 35-year rule in the province—a victory widely described as an upset of the entrenched clan.[68]
2010 vice-presidential election: LongtimeMakati mayorJejomar Binay narrowly defeatedestablishment favoriteMar Roxas for the vice presidency. Roxas had been widely expected to win by a comfortable margin, making Binay's roughly 720,000-vote triumph a notable political upset in that year's national elections.[69]
2019 Manila mayoral election: IncumbentManila mayorJoseph Estrada, a former Philippine president, lost his re-election bid to former vice-mayorIsko Moreno by over 100,000 votes. Estrada's ouster endedhis family's control of the capital; observers characterized Moreno's decisive win as an upset victory over the veteran leader.[71]
2019 San Juan mayoral election: Former vice mayorFrancis Zamora defeated Janella Ejercito Estrada—the granddaughter of former presidentJoseph Estrada—to become mayor ofSan Juan, ending theEjercito-Estrada family's rule on the city after roughly 50 years. Zamora's win (35,060 votes to Estrada's 24,813) was widely noted as a major upset against one of the country's longest political dynasties.[71][73]
2025 Cebu gubernatorial election: PhilanthropistPam Baricuatro unseated incumbentCebu governorGwendolyn Garcia. Baricuatro lacked prior elected experience and was not considered a frontrunner, yet she defeated Garcia—who had held the governorship for multiple terms—by winning in 29 municipalities and cities across the province.[74]
The2025 Philippine Senate election defied expectations, as several underdog candidates scored upset victories against projections, including:
Former opposition senatorBam Aquino placed second nationwide despite hardly ever entering the top 12 poll rankings inpre-election surveys (the top 12 candidates win Senate seats).[76]
Former lawmakerRodante Marcoleta was initially not a frontrunner but ultimately finished in sixth place. Political analysts note that a late boost—including endorsements from Vice PresidentSara Duterte's camp and the influentialIglesia ni Cristo religiousvoting bloc (which Marcoleta is a member of)—helped vault him into the winning circle.[76]
Former opposition senatorKiko Pangilinan, who reclaimed a seat, Pangilinan had also been outside the top 12 in most opinion polls, making his fifth-place finish in the final tally an upset victory.[76]
Conversely, the 2025 Senate election saw several candidates who ranked high in pre-election opinion polling suffer upset defeats:
Makati mayorAbby Binay entered the race as a strong contender (even polling in the top five early on). However, she finished only 15th in votes, missing a Senate seat.[76]
Former senator and boxerManny Pacquiao attempted a Senate comeback in 2025 under theadministration slate. Despite his celebrity status, Pacquiao finished 18th – far from the winning 12 candidates.[76][77]
Re-electionist senatorBong Revilla had consistently polled among the leaders, yet fell to 14th place on election day.[76]
BroadcasterBen Tulfo ranked in the top five of early campaign surveys but ultimately fell to 13th place despite high name recognition.[76]
2015 presidential election: The incumbentBronisław Komorowski was leading nearly all opinion polls taken before the first round of the election, with some polls taken in late 2014 and early 2015 suggesting he was on track for an outright win that would avoid a runoff election.[78][79]Andrzej Duda eventually took a narrow first-place finish over Komorowski and went on to win the election in the runoff.[78][80][81][82]
2024 Romanian presidential election (first round, later annulled due to intelligence reports ofRussian interference):[85]Călin Georgescu, apro-Russian, anti-NATO, andfar-right independent candidate, achieved arelative majority of votes, whileElena Lasconi of the centre-rightSave Romania Union finished second and also advanced to the runoff vote. Initially viewed as a minor candidate with little chance of victory due to his far-right views, Georgescu quickly gained significant support through campaigning on non-traditional media outlets such asTikTok, receiving particular popularity among those disaffected with current Romanian politics, includingyouth,farmers,rural voters, and members of theworking class. He was then considered thefront-runner in the race,[86] and polling conducted after the first round of voting found him to be the most popular figure in the country's politics.[87] The aftermath of the first round was controversial and led Romania to the brink of a politicalcrisis.[88] Incumbent presidentKlaus Iohannis and chair of theSupreme Council of National Defence accused Georgescu's campaign of being supported by Russia. Followingvote rigging allegations made by a minor candidate, theConstitutional Court of Romania ordered arecount;[89][90] it ultimately decided to confirm the results of the first round on 2 December.[91] On 6 December, the Constitutional Court reversed their decision and annulled the first round of the election after intelligence documents were declassified stating that Russia had run acoordinated online campaign to promote Georgescu.[92][93][94]
1970 general election: Most opinion polls prior to the election indicated a comfortable victory for the incumbent Labour government. On election day, however, a late swing gave the Conservatives a 3.4% lead and ended almost six years of Labour government.[112][113]
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