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 County results Merkley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Wehby: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Oregon, concurrently with theelection of theGovernor of Oregon, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate andlocal elections.
IncumbentDemocratic SenatorJeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite it being a national midterm Republican wave, this was actually a stronger Senate election for him in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20% and carrying nine additional counties he had lost in 2008.[1] Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while theRepublicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeonMonica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign began to collapse after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website.[2]
Democrat Jeff Merkley, theSpeaker of theOregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbentGordon H. Smith with 49% of the votein 2008.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeff Merkley (incumbent) | 277,120 | 92.04% | |
| Democratic | William Bryk | 11,330 | 3.76% | |
| Democratic | Pavel Goberman | 8,436 | 2.81% | |
| write-ins | 4,194 | 1.39% | ||
| Total votes | 301,080 | 100.00% | ||
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Callahan | Jason Conger | Tim Crawley | Jo Rae Perkins | Monica Wehby | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benenson Strategy Group[21] | April 14–17, 2014 | 410 | ± ? | — | 24% | — | — | 22% | 55% |
| Wenzel Strategies[22] | May 1–4, 2014 | 607 | ± ? | 4% | 22% | 3% | 3% | 43% | 26% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[23] | May 12–13, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 2% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 41% | 26% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Monica Wehby | 134,627 | 49.96% | |
| Republican | Jason Conger | 101,401 | 37.63% | |
| Republican | Mark Callahan | 18,220 | 6.76% | |
| Republican | Jo Rae Perkins | 7,602 | 2.82% | |
| Republican | Tim Crawley | 6,566 | 2.44% | |
| Write-in | 1,027 | 0.39% | ||
| Total votes | 266,438 | 100.00% | ||
The filing deadline for independent candidates is August 26, 2014. In order to qualify, a candidate must submit 17,893 signatures of registered voters or obtain signatures from at least 1,000 electors at a valid assembly of electors.[24]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[29] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Monica Wehby (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[30] | April 1–2, 2014 | 670 | ± 3.91% | 46% | 34% | — | 20% |
| Benenson Strategy Group[21] | April 14–17, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 52% | 32% | — | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | May 21–22, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 47% | 37% | 5% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | May 22–27, 2014 | 956 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 36% | — | 15% |
| The Tarrance Group*[33] | June 1–3, 2014 | 615 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 39% | 9%[34] | 11% |
| SurveyUSA[35] | June 5–9, 2014 | 560 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 32% | 9% | 9% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[36] | July 5–24, 2014 | 2,088 | ± 2.6% | 53% | 39% | 1% | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[37] | August 1–5, 2014 | 564 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 33% | 7% | 9% |
| Moore Information^[38] | August 5–9, 2014 | 500 | ± 4% | 47% | 38% | — | 16% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[39] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,541 | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | September 2–3, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 48% | 35% | 5% | 12% |
| Polling Company/WomanTrend[40] | September 9–11, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 34% | 7%[41] | 14% |
| SurveyUSA[42] | September 22–24, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 32% | 8% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,508 | ± 3% | 52% | 39% | 1% | 8% |
| DHM Research[44] | October 2014 | ? | ± 4.3% | 47% | 26% | 6% | 19% |
| SurveyUSA[45] | October 16–19, 2014 | 561 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 32% | 7% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43] | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,421 | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[46] | October 23–27, 2014 | 552 | ± 4.3% | 53% | 32% | 8% | 6% |
| Elway Research[47] | October 26–27, 2014 | 403 | ± 5% | 49% | 30% | 3%[48] | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Allen Alley (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 37% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 53% | 36% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Jason Atkinson (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 34% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Jason Conger (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[30] | April 1–2, 2014 | 670 | ± 3.91% | 47% | 40% | — | 12% |
| Benenson Strategy Group[21] | April 14–17, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 50% | 34% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Bruce Hanna (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 35% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 52% | 34% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Gordon Smith (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Bruce Starr (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 52% | 32% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Merkley (D) | Greg Walden (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | June 21–24, 2012 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | December 3–5, 2012 | 614 | ± 4% | 47% | 42% | — | 11% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeff Merkley (incumbent) | 814,537 | 55.73% | +6.83% | |
| Republican | Monica Wehby | 538,847 | 36.87% | −8.68% | |
| Libertarian | Mike Monchalin | 44,916 | 3.07% | N/A | |
| Pacific Green | Christina Jean Lugo | 32,434 | 2.22% | N/A | |
| Constitution | James E. Leuenberger | 24,212 | 1.66% | −3.58% | |
| Write-in | 6,672 | 0.45% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,461,618 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratichold | |||||
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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