Theuncertainty parameterU is introduced by theMinor Planet Center (MPC) to quantify the uncertainty of aperturbed orbital solution for aminor planet.^[2][3] The parameter is alogarithmic scale from 0 to 9 that measures the anticipated longitudinal uncertainty^[4] in the minor planet'smean anomaly after 10 years.^[2][3][5] The larger the number, the larger the uncertainty. The uncertainty parameter is also known ascondition code in JPL'sSmall-Body Database Browser.^[3][5][6] TheU value should not be used as a predictor for the uncertainty in the future motion ofnear-Earth objects.^[2]

Orbital uncertainty is related to several parameters used in theorbit determination process including the number ofobservations (measurements), the time spanned by those observations (observation arc), the quality of the observations (e.g.radar vs. optical), and the geometry of the observations. Of these parameters, the time spanned by the observations generally has the greatest effect on the orbital uncertainty.^[8]

Occasionally, the Minor Planet Center substitutes a letter-code (‘D’, ‘E’, ‘F’) for the uncertainty parameter.

D	Objects with a ‘D’ have only been observed for a single opposition, and have been assigned two (or more) different designations ("double").
E	Objects such as2003 UU291 with a condition code ‘E’[9] in the place of a numeric uncertainty parameter denotes orbits for which the listedeccentricity was assumed, rather than determined.[7] Objects with assumed eccentricities are generally consideredlost if they have not recently been observed because their orbits are not well constrained.[citation needed]
F	Objects with an ‘F’ fall in both categories ‘D’ and ‘E’.[7]

TheU parameter is calculated in two steps.^[2][10] First the in-orbit longitude runoff${\displaystyle r}$ inseconds of arc per decade is calculated, (i.e. the discrepancy between the observed and calculated position extrapolated over ten years):

${\displaystyle r=\left(\mathrm{\Delta }\tau \cdot e+10\cdot \frac{\mathrm{\Delta }P}{P}\right)\cdot 3600\cdot 3\cdot \frac{k_{\text{o}}}{P}}$

with

${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Delta }\tau }$	uncertainty in theperihelion time in days
${\displaystyle e}$	eccentricity of the determined orbit
${\displaystyle P}$	orbital period in years
${\displaystyle \mathrm{\Delta }P}$	uncertainty in the orbital period in days
${\displaystyle k_{\text{o}}}$	${\displaystyle 0.01720209895\cdot \frac{{180}^{\circ }}{\pi }}$,Gaussian gravitational constant, converted to degrees

Then, the obtained in-orbit longitude runoff is converted to the "uncertainty parameter"U, which is an integer between 0 and 9. The calculated number can be less than 0 or more than 9, but in those cases either 0 or 9 is used instead. The formula for cutting off the calculated value ofU is

${\displaystyle U=min\left\{9,max\{0,\lfloor 9\cdot \frac{\log r}{\log \mathrm{648,000}}\rfloor +1\}\right\}}$

For instance: As of 10 September 2016,Ceres technically has an uncertainty of around −2.6, but is instead displayed as the minimal 0.

The result is the same regardless of the choice ofbase for the logarithm, so long as the same logarithm is used throughout the formula; e.g. for "log" =log₁₀,log_e,ln, orlog₂ the calculated value ofU remains the same if the logarithm is the same in both places in the formula.

648 000 is the number of arc seconds in a half circle, so a value greater than 9 would be meaningless as we would have no idea where the object will be in 10 years within the orbit.

• Orbits
• Measurement

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