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Sufficient statistic

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Statistical principle

Instatistics,sufficiency is a property of astatistic computed on asample dataset in relation to a parametric model of the dataset. A sufficient statistic contains all of the information that the dataset provides about the model parameters. It is closely related to the concepts of anancillary statistic which contains no information about the model parameters, and of acomplete statistic which only contains information about the parameters and no ancillary information.

A related concept is that oflinear sufficiency, which is weaker thansufficiency but can be applied in some cases where there is no sufficient statistic, although it is restricted to linear estimators.[1] TheKolmogorov structure function deals with individual finite data; the related notion there is the algorithmic sufficient statistic.

The concept is due toSir Ronald Fisher in 1920.[2]Stephen Stigler noted in 1973 that the concept of sufficiency had fallen out of favor indescriptive statistics because of the strong dependence on an assumption of the distributional form (seePitman–Koopman–Darmois theorem below), but remained very important in theoretical work.[3]

Background

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Roughly, given a setX{\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } ofindependent identically distributed data conditioned on an unknown parameterθ{\displaystyle \theta }, a sufficient statistic is a functionT(X){\displaystyle T(\mathbf {X} )} whose value contains all the information needed to compute any estimate of the parameter (e.g. amaximum likelihood estimate). Due to the factorization theorem (see below), for a sufficient statisticT(X){\displaystyle T(\mathbf {X} )}, the probability density can be written asfX(x;θ)=h(x)g(θ,T(x)){\displaystyle f_{\mathbf {X} }(x;\theta )=h(x)\,g(\theta ,T(x))}. From this factorization, it can easily be seen that the maximum likelihood estimate ofθ{\displaystyle \theta } will interact withX{\displaystyle \mathbf {X} } only throughT(X){\displaystyle T(\mathbf {X} )}. Typically, the sufficient statistic is a simple function of the data, e.g. the sum of all the data points.

More generally, the "unknown parameter" may represent avector of unknown quantities or may represent everything about the model that is unknown or not fully specified. In such a case, the sufficient statistic may be a set of functions, called ajointly sufficient statistic. Typically, there are as many functions as there are parameters. For example, for aGaussian distribution with unknownmean andvariance, the jointly sufficient statistic, from which maximum likelihood estimates of both parameters can be estimated, consists of two functions, the sum of all data points and the sum of all squared data points (or equivalently, thesample mean andsample variance).

In other words,thejoint probability distribution of the data is conditionally independent of the parameter given the value of the sufficient statistic for the parameter. Both the statistic and the underlying parameter can be vectors.

Mathematical definition

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A statistict = T(X) issufficient for underlying parameterθ precisely if theconditional probability distribution of the dataX, given the statistict = T(X), does not depend on the parameterθ.[4]

Alternatively, one can say the statistic T(X) is sufficient forθ if, for all prior distributions onθ, themutual information betweenθ andT(X) equals the mutual information betweenθ andX.[5] In other words, thedata processing inequality becomes an equality:

I(θ;T(X))=I(θ;X){\displaystyle I{\bigl (}\theta ;T(X){\bigr )}=I(\theta ;X)}

Example

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As an example, the sample mean is sufficient for the (unknown) meanμ of anormal distribution with known variance. Once the sample mean is known, no further information aboutμ can be obtained from the sample itself. On the other hand, for an arbitrary distribution themedian is not sufficient for the mean: even if the median of the sample is known, knowing the sample itself would provide further information about the population mean. For example, if the observations that are less than the median are only slightly less, but observations exceeding the median exceed it by a large amount, then this would have a bearing on one's inference about the population mean.

Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem

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Fisher's factorization theorem orfactorization criterion provides a convenientcharacterization of a sufficient statistic. If theprobability density function is ƒθ(x), thenT is sufficient forθif and only if nonnegative functionsg andh can be found such that

f(x;θ)=h(x)g(θ,T(x)),{\displaystyle f(x;\theta )=h(x)\,g(\theta ,T(x)),}

i.e., the density ƒ can be factored into a product such that one factor,h, does not depend onθ and the other factor, which does depend onθ, depends onx only throughT(x). A general proof of this was given by Halmos and Savage[6] and the theorem is sometimes referred to as the Halmos–Savage factorization theorem.[7] The proofs below handle special cases, but an alternative general proof along the same lines can be given.[8] In many simple cases the probability density function is fully specified byθ{\displaystyle \theta } andT(x){\displaystyle T(x)}, andh(x)=1{\displaystyle h(x)=1} (seeExamples).

It is easy to see that ifF(t) is a one-to-one function andT is a sufficientstatistic, thenF(T) is a sufficient statistic. In particular we can multiply asufficient statistic by a nonzero constant and get another sufficient statistic.

Likelihood principle interpretation

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An implication of the theorem is that when using likelihood-based inference, two sets of data yielding the same value for the sufficient statisticT(X) will always yield the same inferences aboutθ. By the factorization criterion, the likelihood's dependence onθ is only in conjunction withT(X). As this is the same in both cases, the dependence onθ will be the same as well, leading to identical inferences.

Proof

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Due to Hogg and Craig.[9] LetX1,X2,,Xn{\displaystyle X_{1},X_{2},\ldots ,X_{n}}, denote a random sample from a distribution having thepdff(xθ) forι < θ < δ. LetY1 = u1(X1X2, ..., Xn) be a statistic whose pdf isg1(y1θ). What we want to prove is thatY1 = u1(X1,X2, ..., Xn) is a sufficient statistic forθ if and only if, for some functionH,

i=1nf(xi;θ)=g1[u1(x1,x2,,xn);θ]H(x1,x2,,xn).{\displaystyle \prod _{i=1}^{n}f(x_{i};\theta )=g_{1}\left[u_{1}(x_{1},x_{2},\dots ,x_{n});\theta \right]H(x_{1},x_{2},\dots ,x_{n}).}

First, suppose that

i=1nf(xi;θ)=g1[u1(x1,x2,,xn);θ]H(x1,x2,,xn).{\displaystyle \prod _{i=1}^{n}f(x_{i};\theta )=g_{1}\left[u_{1}(x_{1},x_{2},\dots ,x_{n});\theta \right]H(x_{1},x_{2},\dots ,x_{n}).}

We shall make the transformationyi = ui(x1x2, ..., xn), fori = 1, ..., n, having inverse functionsxi = wi(y1y2, ..., yn), fori = 1, ..., n, andJacobianJ=[wi/yj]{\displaystyle J=\left[w_{i}/y_{j}\right]}. Thus,

i=1nf[wi(y1,y2,,yn);θ]=|J|g1(y1;θ)H[w1(y1,y2,,yn),,wn(y1,y2,,yn)].{\displaystyle \prod _{i=1}^{n}f\left[w_{i}(y_{1},y_{2},\dots ,y_{n});\theta \right]=|J|g_{1}(y_{1};\theta )H\left[w_{1}(y_{1},y_{2},\dots ,y_{n}),\dots ,w_{n}(y_{1},y_{2},\dots ,y_{n})\right].}

The left-hand member is the joint pdfg(y1,y2, ...,yn; θ) ofY1 =u1(X1, ...,Xn), ...,Yn =un(X1, ...,Xn). In the right-hand member,g1(y1;θ){\displaystyle g_{1}(y_{1};\theta )} is the pdf ofY1{\displaystyle Y_{1}}, so thatH[w1,,wn]|J|{\displaystyle H[w_{1},\dots ,w_{n}]|J|} is the quotient ofg(y1,,yn;θ){\displaystyle g(y_{1},\dots ,y_{n};\theta )} andg1(y1;θ){\displaystyle g_{1}(y_{1};\theta )}; that is, it is the conditional pdfh(y2,,yny1;θ){\displaystyle h(y_{2},\dots ,y_{n}\mid y_{1};\theta )} ofY2,,Yn{\displaystyle Y_{2},\dots ,Y_{n}} givenY1=y1{\displaystyle Y_{1}=y_{1}}.

ButH(x1,x2,,xn){\displaystyle H(x_{1},x_{2},\dots ,x_{n})}, and thusH[w1(y1,,yn),,wn(y1,,yn))]{\displaystyle H\left[w_{1}(y_{1},\dots ,y_{n}),\dots ,w_{n}(y_{1},\dots ,y_{n}))\right]}, was given not to depend uponθ{\displaystyle \theta }. Sinceθ{\displaystyle \theta } was not introduced in the transformation and accordingly not in the JacobianJ{\displaystyle J}, it follows thath(y2,,yny1;θ){\displaystyle h(y_{2},\dots ,y_{n}\mid y_{1};\theta )} does not depend uponθ{\displaystyle \theta } and thatY1{\displaystyle Y_{1}} is a sufficient statistics forθ{\displaystyle \theta }.

The converse is proven by taking:

g(y1,,yn;θ)=g1(y1;θ)h(y2,,yny1),{\displaystyle g(y_{1},\dots ,y_{n};\theta )=g_{1}(y_{1};\theta )h(y_{2},\dots ,y_{n}\mid y_{1}),}

whereh(y2,,yny1){\displaystyle h(y_{2},\dots ,y_{n}\mid y_{1})} does not depend uponθ{\displaystyle \theta } becauseY2...Yn{\displaystyle Y_{2}...Y_{n}} depend only uponX1...Xn{\displaystyle X_{1}...X_{n}}, which are independent onΘ{\displaystyle \Theta } when conditioned byY1{\displaystyle Y_{1}}, a sufficient statistics by hypothesis. Now divide both members by the absolute value of the non-vanishing JacobianJ{\displaystyle J}, and replacey1,,yn{\displaystyle y_{1},\dots ,y_{n}} by the functionsu1(x1,,xn),,un(x1,,xn){\displaystyle u_{1}(x_{1},\dots ,x_{n}),\dots ,u_{n}(x_{1},\dots ,x_{n})} inx1,,xn{\displaystyle x_{1},\dots ,x_{n}}. This yields

g[u1(x1,,xn),,un(x1,,xn);θ]|J|=g1[u1(x1,,xn);θ]h(u2,,unu1)|J|{\displaystyle {\frac {g\left[u_{1}(x_{1},\dots ,x_{n}),\dots ,u_{n}(x_{1},\dots ,x_{n});\theta \right]}{|J^{*}|}}=g_{1}\left[u_{1}(x_{1},\dots ,x_{n});\theta \right]{\frac {h(u_{2},\dots ,u_{n}\mid u_{1})}{|J^{*}|}}}

whereJ{\displaystyle J^{*}} is the Jacobian withy1,,yn{\displaystyle y_{1},\dots ,y_{n}} replaced by their value in termsx1,,xn{\displaystyle x_{1},\dots ,x_{n}}. The left-hand member is necessarily the joint pdff(x1;θ)f(xn;θ){\displaystyle f(x_{1};\theta )\cdots f(x_{n};\theta )} ofX1,,Xn{\displaystyle X_{1},\dots ,X_{n}}. Sinceh(y2,,yny1){\displaystyle h(y_{2},\dots ,y_{n}\mid y_{1})}, and thush(u2,,unu1){\displaystyle h(u_{2},\dots ,u_{n}\mid u_{1})}, does not depend uponθ{\displaystyle \theta }, then

H(x1,,xn)=h(u2,,unu1)|J|{\displaystyle H(x_{1},\dots ,x_{n})={\frac {h(u_{2},\dots ,u_{n}\mid u_{1})}{|J^{*}|}}}

is a function that does not depend uponθ{\displaystyle \theta }.

Another proof

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A simpler more illustrative proof is as follows, although it applies only in the discrete case.

We use the shorthand notation to denote the joint probability density of(X,T(X)){\displaystyle (X,T(X))} byfθ(x,t){\displaystyle f_{\theta }(x,t)}. SinceT{\displaystyle T} is a deterministic function ofX{\displaystyle X}, we havefθ(x,t)=fθ(x){\displaystyle f_{\theta }(x,t)=f_{\theta }(x)}, as long ast=T(x){\displaystyle t=T(x)} and zero otherwise. Therefore:

fθ(x)=fθ(x,t)=fθ(xt)fθ(t)=f(xt)fθ(t){\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{\theta }(x)&=f_{\theta }(x,t)\\[5pt]&=f_{\theta }(x\mid t)f_{\theta }(t)\\[5pt]&=f(x\mid t)f_{\theta }(t)\end{aligned}}}

with the last equality being true by the definition of sufficient statistics. Thusfθ(x)=a(x)bθ(t){\displaystyle f_{\theta }(x)=a(x)b_{\theta }(t)} witha(x)=fXt(x){\displaystyle a(x)=f_{X\mid t}(x)} andbθ(t)=fθ(t){\displaystyle b_{\theta }(t)=f_{\theta }(t)}.

Conversely, iffθ(x)=a(x)bθ(t){\displaystyle f_{\theta }(x)=a(x)b_{\theta }(t)}, we have

fθ(t)=x:T(x)=tfθ(x,t)=x:T(x)=tfθ(x)=x:T(x)=ta(x)bθ(t)=(x:T(x)=ta(x))bθ(t).{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{\theta }(t)&=\sum _{x:T(x)=t}f_{\theta }(x,t)\\[5pt]&=\sum _{x:T(x)=t}f_{\theta }(x)\\[5pt]&=\sum _{x:T(x)=t}a(x)b_{\theta }(t)\\[5pt]&=\left(\sum _{x:T(x)=t}a(x)\right)b_{\theta }(t).\end{aligned}}}

With the first equality by thedefinition of pdf for multiple variables, the second by the remark above, the third by hypothesis, and the fourth because the summation is not overt{\displaystyle t}.

LetfXt(x){\displaystyle f_{X\mid t}(x)} denote the conditional probability density ofX{\displaystyle X} givenT(X){\displaystyle T(X)}. Then we can derive an explicit expression for this:

fXt(x)=fθ(x,t)fθ(t)=fθ(x)fθ(t)=a(x)bθ(t)(x:T(x)=ta(x))bθ(t)=a(x)x:T(x)=ta(x).{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{X\mid t}(x)&={\frac {f_{\theta }(x,t)}{f_{\theta }(t)}}\\[5pt]&={\frac {f_{\theta }(x)}{f_{\theta }(t)}}\\[5pt]&={\frac {a(x)b_{\theta }(t)}{\left(\sum _{x:T(x)=t}a(x)\right)b_{\theta }(t)}}\\[5pt]&={\frac {a(x)}{\sum _{x:T(x)=t}a(x)}}.\end{aligned}}}

With the first equality by definition of conditional probability density, the second by the remark above, the third by the equality proven above, and the fourth by simplification. This expression does not depend onθ{\displaystyle \theta } and thusT{\displaystyle T} is a sufficient statistic.[10]

Minimal sufficiency

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A sufficient statistic isminimal sufficient if it can be represented as a function of any other sufficient statistic. In other words,S(X) isminimal sufficient if and only if[11]

  1. S(X) is sufficient, and
  2. ifT(X) is sufficient, then there exists a functionf such thatS(X) =f(T(X)).

Intuitively, a minimal sufficient statisticmost efficiently captures all possible information about the parameterθ.

A useful characterization of minimal sufficiency is that when the densityfθ exists,S(X) isminimal sufficient if

fθ(x)fθ(y){\displaystyle {\frac {f_{\theta }(x)}{f_{\theta }(y)}}} is independent ofθ :{\displaystyle \Longleftrightarrow }S(x) =S(y)

This follows as a consequence fromFisher's factorization theorem stated above.

A case in which there is no minimal sufficient statistic was shown by Bahadur, 1954.[12] However, under mild conditions, a minimal sufficient statistic does always exist. In particular, in Euclidean space, these conditions always hold if the random variables (associated withPθ{\displaystyle P_{\theta }} ) are all discrete or are all continuous.

If there exists a minimal sufficient statistic, and this is usually the case, then everycomplete sufficient statistic is necessarily minimal sufficient[13] (note that this statement does not exclude a pathological case in which a complete sufficient exists while there is no minimal sufficient statistic). While it is hard to find cases in which a minimal sufficient statistic does not exist, it is not so hard to find cases in which there is no complete sufficient statistic.

The collection of likelihood ratios{L(Xθi)L(Xθ0)}{\displaystyle \left\{{\frac {L(X\mid \theta _{i})}{L(X\mid \theta _{0})}}\right\}} fori=1,...,k{\displaystyle i=1,...,k}, is a minimal sufficient statistic if the parameter space is discrete{θ0,...,θk}{\displaystyle \left\{\theta _{0},...,\theta _{k}\right\}}.

Examples

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Bernoulli distribution

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IfX1, ...., Xn are independentBernoulli-distributed random variables with expected valuep, then the sumT(X) = X1 + ... + Xn is a sufficient statistic forp (here 'success' corresponds toXi = 1 and 'failure' toXi = 0; soT is the total number of successes)

This is seen by considering the joint probability distribution:

Pr{X=x}=Pr{X1=x1,X2=x2,,Xn=xn}.{\displaystyle \Pr\{X=x\}=\Pr\{X_{1}=x_{1},X_{2}=x_{2},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n}\}.}

Because the observations are independent, this can be written as

px1(1p)1x1px2(1p)1x2pxn(1p)1xn{\displaystyle p^{x_{1}}(1-p)^{1-x_{1}}p^{x_{2}}(1-p)^{1-x_{2}}\cdots p^{x_{n}}(1-p)^{1-x_{n}}}

and, collecting powers ofp and 1 − p, gives

pxi(1p)nxi=pT(x)(1p)nT(x){\displaystyle p^{\sum x_{i}}(1-p)^{n-\sum x_{i}}=p^{T(x)}(1-p)^{n-T(x)}}

which satisfies the factorization criterion, withh(x) = 1 being just a constant.

Note the crucial feature: the unknown parameterp interacts with the datax only via the statisticT(x) = Σ xi.

As a concrete application, this gives a procedure for distinguishing afair coin from a biased coin.

Uniform distribution

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See also:German tank problem

IfX1, ....,Xn are independent anduniformly distributed on the interval [0,θ], thenT(X) = max(X1, ...,Xn) is sufficient for θ — thesample maximum is a sufficient statistic for the population maximum.

To see this, consider the jointprobability density function ofX  (X1,...,Xn). Because the observations are independent, the pdf can be written as a product of individual densities

fθ(x1,,xn)=1θ1{0x1θ}1θ1{0xnθ}=1θn1{0min{xi}}1{max{xi}θ}{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{\theta }(x_{1},\ldots ,x_{n})&={\frac {1}{\theta }}\mathbf {1} _{\{0\leq x_{1}\leq \theta \}}\cdots {\frac {1}{\theta }}\mathbf {1} _{\{0\leq x_{n}\leq \theta \}}\\[5pt]&={\frac {1}{\theta ^{n}}}\mathbf {1} _{\{0\leq \min\{x_{i}\}\}}\mathbf {1} _{\{\max\{x_{i}\}\leq \theta \}}\end{aligned}}}

where1{...} is theindicator function. Thus the density takes form required by the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem, whereh(x) = 1{min{xi}≥0}, and the rest of the expression is a function of onlyθ andT(x) = max{xi}.

In fact, theminimum-variance unbiased estimator (MVUE) forθ is

n+1nT(X).{\displaystyle {\frac {n+1}{n}}T(X).}

This is the sample maximum, scaled to correct for thebias, and is MVUE by theLehmann–Scheffé theorem. Unscaled sample maximumT(X) is themaximum likelihood estimator forθ.

Uniform distribution (with two parameters)

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IfX1,...,Xn{\displaystyle X_{1},...,X_{n}} are independent anduniformly distributed on the interval[α,β]{\displaystyle [\alpha ,\beta ]} (whereα{\displaystyle \alpha } andβ{\displaystyle \beta } are unknown parameters), thenT(X1n)=(min1inXi,max1inXi){\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\left(\min _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i},\max _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i}\right)} is a two-dimensional sufficient statistic for(α,β){\displaystyle (\alpha \,,\,\beta )}.

To see this, consider the jointprobability density function ofX1n=(X1,,Xn){\displaystyle X_{1}^{n}=(X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n})}. Because the observations are independent, the pdf can be written as a product of individual densities, i.e.

fX1n(x1n)=i=1n(1βα)1{αxiβ}=(1βα)n1{αxiβ,i=1,,n}=(1βα)n1{αmin1inXi}1{max1inXiβ}.{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{X_{1}^{n}}(x_{1}^{n})&=\prod _{i=1}^{n}\left({1 \over \beta -\alpha }\right)\mathbf {1} _{\{\alpha \leq x_{i}\leq \beta \}}=\left({1 \over \beta -\alpha }\right)^{n}\mathbf {1} _{\{\alpha \leq x_{i}\leq \beta ,\,\forall \,i=1,\ldots ,n\}}\\&=\left({1 \over \beta -\alpha }\right)^{n}\mathbf {1} _{\{\alpha \,\leq \,\min _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i}\}}\mathbf {1} _{\{\max _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i}\,\leq \,\beta \}}.\end{aligned}}}

The joint density of the sample takes the form required by the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem, by letting

h(x1n)=1,g(α,β)(x1n)=(1βα)n1{αmin1inXi}1{max1inXiβ}.{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}h(x_{1}^{n})=1,\quad g_{(\alpha ,\beta )}(x_{1}^{n})=\left({1 \over \beta -\alpha }\right)^{n}\mathbf {1} _{\{\alpha \,\leq \,\min _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i}\}}\mathbf {1} _{\{\max _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i}\,\leq \,\beta \}}.\end{aligned}}}

Sinceh(x1n){\displaystyle h(x_{1}^{n})} does not depend on the parameter(α,β){\displaystyle (\alpha ,\beta )} andg(α,β)(x1n){\displaystyle g_{(\alpha \,,\,\beta )}(x_{1}^{n})} depends only onx1n{\displaystyle x_{1}^{n}} through the functionT(X1n)=(min1inXi,max1inXi),{\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\left(\min _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i},\max _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i}\right),}

the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem impliesT(X1n)=(min1inXi,max1inXi){\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\left(\min _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i},\max _{1\leq i\leq n}X_{i}\right)} is a sufficient statistic for(α,β){\displaystyle (\alpha \,,\,\beta )}.

Poisson distribution

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IfX1, ...., Xn are independent and have aPoisson distribution with parameterλ, then the sumT(X) = X1 + ... + Xn is a sufficient statistic for λ.

To see this, consider the joint probability distribution:

Pr(X=x)=P(X1=x1,X2=x2,,Xn=xn).{\displaystyle \Pr(X=x)=P(X_{1}=x_{1},X_{2}=x_{2},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n}).}

Because the observations are independent, this can be written as

eλλx1x1!eλλx2x2!eλλxnxn!{\displaystyle {e^{-\lambda }\lambda ^{x_{1}} \over x_{1}!}\cdot {e^{-\lambda }\lambda ^{x_{2}} \over x_{2}!}\cdots {e^{-\lambda }\lambda ^{x_{n}} \over x_{n}!}}

which may be written as

enλλ(x1+x2++xn)1x1!x2!xn!{\displaystyle e^{-n\lambda }\lambda ^{(x_{1}+x_{2}+\cdots +x_{n})}\cdot {1 \over x_{1}!x_{2}!\cdots x_{n}!}}

which shows that the factorization criterion is satisfied, whereh(x) is the reciprocal of the product of the factorials. Note the parameter λ interacts with the data only through its sumT(X).

Normal distribution

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IfX1,,Xn{\displaystyle X_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}} are independent andnormally distributed with expected valueθ{\displaystyle \theta } (a parameter) and known finite varianceσ2,{\displaystyle \sigma ^{2},} then

T(X1n)=x¯=1ni=1nXi{\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})={\overline {x}}={\frac {1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_{i}}

is a sufficient statistic forθ.{\displaystyle \theta .}

To see this, consider the jointprobability density function ofX1n=(X1,,Xn){\displaystyle X_{1}^{n}=(X_{1},\dots ,X_{n})}. Because the observations are independent, the pdf can be written as a product of individual densities, i.e.

fX1n(x1n)=i=1n12πσ2exp((xiθ)22σ2)=(2πσ2)n2exp(i=1n(xiθ)22σ2)=(2πσ2)n2exp(i=1n((xix¯)(θx¯))22σ2)=(2πσ2)n2exp(12σ2(i=1n(xix¯)2+i=1n(θx¯)22i=1n(xix¯)(θx¯)))=(2πσ2)n2exp(12σ2(i=1n(xix¯)2+n(θx¯)2))i=1n(xix¯)(θx¯)=0=(2πσ2)n2exp(12σ2i=1n(xix¯)2)exp(n2σ2(θx¯)2){\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{X_{1}^{n}}(x_{1}^{n})&=\prod _{i=1}^{n}{\frac {1}{\sqrt {2\pi \sigma ^{2}}}}\exp \left(-{\frac {(x_{i}-\theta )^{2}}{2\sigma ^{2}}}\right)\\[6pt]&=(2\pi \sigma ^{2})^{-{\frac {n}{2}}}\exp \left(-\sum _{i=1}^{n}{\frac {(x_{i}-\theta )^{2}}{2\sigma ^{2}}}\right)\\[6pt]&=(2\pi \sigma ^{2})^{-{\frac {n}{2}}}\exp \left(-\sum _{i=1}^{n}{\frac {\left(\left(x_{i}-{\overline {x}}\right)-\left(\theta -{\overline {x}}\right)\right)^{2}}{2\sigma ^{2}}}\right)\\[6pt]&=(2\pi \sigma ^{2})^{-{\frac {n}{2}}}\exp \left(-{1 \over 2\sigma ^{2}}\left(\sum _{i=1}^{n}(x_{i}-{\overline {x}})^{2}+\sum _{i=1}^{n}(\theta -{\overline {x}})^{2}-2\sum _{i=1}^{n}(x_{i}-{\overline {x}})(\theta -{\overline {x}})\right)\right)\\[6pt]&=(2\pi \sigma ^{2})^{-{\frac {n}{2}}}\exp \left(-{1 \over 2\sigma ^{2}}\left(\sum _{i=1}^{n}(x_{i}-{\overline {x}})^{2}+n(\theta -{\overline {x}})^{2}\right)\right)&&\sum _{i=1}^{n}(x_{i}-{\overline {x}})(\theta -{\overline {x}})=0\\[6pt]&=(2\pi \sigma ^{2})^{-{\frac {n}{2}}}\exp \left(-{1 \over 2\sigma ^{2}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}(x_{i}-{\overline {x}})^{2}\right)\exp \left(-{\frac {n}{2\sigma ^{2}}}(\theta -{\overline {x}})^{2}\right)\end{aligned}}}

The joint density of the sample takes the form required by the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem, by letting

h(x1n)=(2πσ2)n2exp(12σ2i=1n(xix¯)2)gθ(x1n)=exp(n2σ2(θx¯)2){\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}h(x_{1}^{n})&=(2\pi \sigma ^{2})^{-{\frac {n}{2}}}\exp \left(-{1 \over 2\sigma ^{2}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}(x_{i}-{\overline {x}})^{2}\right)\\[6pt]g_{\theta }(x_{1}^{n})&=\exp \left(-{\frac {n}{2\sigma ^{2}}}(\theta -{\overline {x}})^{2}\right)\end{aligned}}}

Sinceh(x1n){\displaystyle h(x_{1}^{n})} does not depend on the parameterθ{\displaystyle \theta } andgθ(x1n){\displaystyle g_{\theta }(x_{1}^{n})} depends only onx1n{\displaystyle x_{1}^{n}} through the function

T(X1n)=x¯=1ni=1nXi,{\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})={\overline {x}}={\frac {1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_{i},}

the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem impliesT(X1n){\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})} is a sufficient statistic forθ{\displaystyle \theta }.

Ifσ2{\displaystyle \sigma ^{2}} is unknown and sinces2=1n1i=1n(xix¯)2{\displaystyle s^{2}={\frac {1}{n-1}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left(x_{i}-{\overline {x}}\right)^{2}}, the above likelihood can be rewritten as

fX1n(x1n)=(2πσ2)n/2exp(n12σ2s2)exp(n2σ2(θx¯)2).{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{X_{1}^{n}}(x_{1}^{n})=(2\pi \sigma ^{2})^{-n/2}\exp \left(-{\frac {n-1}{2\sigma ^{2}}}s^{2}\right)\exp \left(-{\frac {n}{2\sigma ^{2}}}(\theta -{\overline {x}})^{2}\right).\end{aligned}}}

The Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem still holds and implies that(x¯,s2){\displaystyle ({\overline {x}},s^{2})} is a joint sufficient statistic for(θ,σ2){\displaystyle (\theta ,\sigma ^{2})}.

Exponential distribution

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IfX1,,Xn{\displaystyle X_{1},\dots ,X_{n}} are independent andexponentially distributed with expected valueθ (an unknown real-valued positive parameter), thenT(X1n)=i=1nXi{\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_{i}} is a sufficient statistic for θ.

To see this, consider the jointprobability density function ofX1n=(X1,,Xn){\displaystyle X_{1}^{n}=(X_{1},\dots ,X_{n})}. Because the observations are independent, the pdf can be written as a product of individual densities, i.e.

fX1n(x1n)=i=1n1θe1θxi=1θne1θi=1nxi.{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{X_{1}^{n}}(x_{1}^{n})&=\prod _{i=1}^{n}{1 \over \theta }\,e^{{-1 \over \theta }x_{i}}={1 \over \theta ^{n}}\,e^{{-1 \over \theta }\sum _{i=1}^{n}x_{i}}.\end{aligned}}}

The joint density of the sample takes the form required by the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem, by letting

h(x1n)=1,gθ(x1n)=1θne1θi=1nxi.{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}h(x_{1}^{n})=1,\,\,\,g_{\theta }(x_{1}^{n})={1 \over \theta ^{n}}\,e^{{-1 \over \theta }\sum _{i=1}^{n}x_{i}}.\end{aligned}}}

Sinceh(x1n){\displaystyle h(x_{1}^{n})} does not depend on the parameterθ{\displaystyle \theta } andgθ(x1n){\displaystyle g_{\theta }(x_{1}^{n})} depends only onx1n{\displaystyle x_{1}^{n}} through the functionT(X1n)=i=1nXi{\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_{i}}

the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem impliesT(X1n)=i=1nXi{\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_{i}} is a sufficient statistic forθ{\displaystyle \theta }.

Gamma distribution

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IfX1,,Xn{\displaystyle X_{1},\dots ,X_{n}} are independent and distributed as aΓ(α,β){\displaystyle \Gamma (\alpha \,,\,\beta )}, whereα{\displaystyle \alpha } andβ{\displaystyle \beta } are unknown parameters of aGamma distribution, thenT(X1n)=(i=1nXi,i=1nXi){\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\left(\prod _{i=1}^{n}{X_{i}},\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_{i}\right)} is a two-dimensional sufficient statistic for(α,β){\displaystyle (\alpha ,\beta )}.

To see this, consider the jointprobability density function ofX1n=(X1,,Xn){\displaystyle X_{1}^{n}=(X_{1},\dots ,X_{n})}. Because the observations are independent, the pdf can be written as a product of individual densities, i.e.

fX1n(x1n)=i=1n(1Γ(α)βα)xiα1e(1/β)xi=(1Γ(α)βα)n(i=1nxi)α1e1βi=1nxi.{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}f_{X_{1}^{n}}(x_{1}^{n})&=\prod _{i=1}^{n}\left({1 \over \Gamma (\alpha )\beta ^{\alpha }}\right)x_{i}^{\alpha -1}e^{(-1/\beta )x_{i}}\\[5pt]&=\left({1 \over \Gamma (\alpha )\beta ^{\alpha }}\right)^{n}\left(\prod _{i=1}^{n}x_{i}\right)^{\alpha -1}e^{{-1 \over \beta }\sum _{i=1}^{n}x_{i}}.\end{aligned}}}

The joint density of the sample takes the form required by the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem, by letting

h(x1n)=1,g(α,β)(x1n)=(1Γ(α)βα)n(i=1nxi)α1e1βi=1nxi.{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}h(x_{1}^{n})=1,\,\,\,g_{(\alpha \,,\,\beta )}(x_{1}^{n})=\left({1 \over \Gamma (\alpha )\beta ^{\alpha }}\right)^{n}\left(\prod _{i=1}^{n}x_{i}\right)^{\alpha -1}e^{{-1 \over \beta }\sum _{i=1}^{n}x_{i}}.\end{aligned}}}

Sinceh(x1n){\displaystyle h(x_{1}^{n})} does not depend on the parameter(α,β){\displaystyle (\alpha \,,\,\beta )} andg(α,β)(x1n){\displaystyle g_{(\alpha \,,\,\beta )}(x_{1}^{n})} depends only onx1n{\displaystyle x_{1}^{n}} through the functionT(x1n)=(i=1nxi,i=1nxi),{\displaystyle T(x_{1}^{n})=\left(\prod _{i=1}^{n}x_{i},\sum _{i=1}^{n}x_{i}\right),}

the Fisher–Neyman factorization theorem impliesT(X1n)=(i=1nXi,i=1nXi){\displaystyle T(X_{1}^{n})=\left(\prod _{i=1}^{n}X_{i},\sum _{i=1}^{n}X_{i}\right)} is a sufficient statistic for(α,β).{\displaystyle (\alpha \,,\,\beta ).}

Rao–Blackwell theorem

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Sufficiency finds a useful application in theRao–Blackwell theorem, which states that ifg(X) is any kind of estimator ofθ, then typically theconditional expectation ofg(X) given sufficient statisticT(X) is a better (in the sense of having lowervariance) estimator ofθ, and is never worse. Sometimes one can very easily construct a very crude estimatorg(X), and then evaluate that conditional expected value to get an estimator that is in various senses optimal.

Exponential family

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Main article:Exponential family

According to thePitman–Koopman–Darmois theorem, among families of probability distributions whose domain does not vary with the parameter being estimated, only inexponential families is there a sufficient statistic whose dimension remains bounded as sample size increases. Intuitively, this states that nonexponential families of distributions on the real line requirenonparametric statistics to fully capture the information in the data.

Less tersely, supposeXn,n=1,2,3,{\displaystyle X_{n},n=1,2,3,\dots } areindependent identically distributedreal random variables whose distribution is known to be in some family of probability distributions, parametrized byθ{\displaystyle \theta }, satisfying certain technical regularity conditions, then that family is anexponential family if and only if there is aRm{\displaystyle \mathbb {R} ^{m}}-valued sufficient statisticT(X1,,Xn){\displaystyle T(X_{1},\dots ,X_{n})} whose number of scalar componentsm{\displaystyle m} does not increase as the sample sizen increases.[14]

This theorem shows that the existence of a finite-dimensional, real-vector-valued sufficient statistics sharply restricts the possible forms of a family of distributions on thereal line.

When the parameters or the random variables are no longer real-valued, the situation is more complex.[15]

Other types of sufficiency

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Bayesian sufficiency

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An alternative formulation of the condition that a statistic be sufficient, set in a Bayesian context, involves the posterior distributions obtained by using the full data-set and by using only a statistic. Thus the requirement is that, for almost everyx,

Pr(θX=x)=Pr(θT(X)=t(x)).{\displaystyle \Pr(\theta \mid X=x)=\Pr(\theta \mid T(X)=t(x)).}

More generally, without assuming a parametric model, we can say that the statisticsT ispredictive sufficient if

Pr(X=xX=x)=Pr(X=xT(X)=t(x)).{\displaystyle \Pr(X'=x'\mid X=x)=\Pr(X'=x'\mid T(X)=t(x)).}

It turns out that this "Bayesian sufficiency" is a consequence of the formulation above,[16] however they are not directly equivalent in the infinite-dimensional case.[17] A range of theoretical results for sufficiency in a Bayesian context is available.[18]

Linear sufficiency

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A concept called "linear sufficiency" can be formulated in a Bayesian context,[19] and more generally.[20] First define the best linear predictor of a vectorY based onX asE^[YX]{\displaystyle {\hat {E}}[Y\mid X]}. Then a linear statisticT(x) is linear sufficient[21] if

E^[θX]=E^[θT(X)].{\displaystyle {\hat {E}}[\theta \mid X]={\hat {E}}[\theta \mid T(X)].}

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^Dodge, Y. (2003) — entry for linear sufficiency
  2. ^Fisher, R.A. (1922)."On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics".Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.222 (594–604):309–368.Bibcode:1922RSPTA.222..309F.doi:10.1098/rsta.1922.0009.hdl:2440/15172.JFM 48.1280.02.JSTOR 91208.
  3. ^Stigler, Stephen (December 1973). "Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXXII: Laplace, Fisher and the Discovery of the Concept of Sufficiency".Biometrika.60 (3):439–445.doi:10.1093/biomet/60.3.439.JSTOR 2334992.MR 0326872.
  4. ^Casella, George; Berger, Roger L. (2002).Statistical Inference, 2nd ed. Duxbury Press.
  5. ^Cover, Thomas M. (2006).Elements of Information Theory. Joy A. Thomas (2nd ed.). Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley-Interscience. p. 36.ISBN 0-471-24195-4.OCLC 59879802.
  6. ^Halmos, P. R.; Savage, L. J. (1949)."Application of the Radon-Nikodym Theorem to the Theory of Sufficient Statistics".The Annals of Mathematical Statistics.20 (2):225–241.doi:10.1214/aoms/1177730032.ISSN 0003-4851.
  7. ^"Factorization theorem - Encyclopedia of Mathematics".encyclopediaofmath.org. Retrieved2022-09-07.
  8. ^Taraldsen, G. (2022). "The Factorization Theorem for Sufficiency".Preprint.doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15068.87687.
  9. ^Hogg, Robert V.; Craig, Allen T. (1995).Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. Prentice Hall.ISBN 978-0-02-355722-4.
  10. ^"The Fisher–Neyman Factorization Theorem".. Webpage at Connexions (cnx.org)
  11. ^Dodge (2003) — entry for minimal sufficient statistics
  12. ^Lehmann and Casella (1998),Theory of Point Estimation, 2nd Edition, Springer, p 37
  13. ^Lehmann and Casella (1998),Theory of Point Estimation, 2nd Edition, Springer, page 42
  14. ^Tikochinsky, Y.; Tishby, N. Z.; Levine, R. D. (1984-11-01)."Alternative approach to maximum-entropy inference".Physical Review A.30 (5):2638–2644.Bibcode:1984PhRvA..30.2638T.doi:10.1103/physreva.30.2638.ISSN 0556-2791.
  15. ^Andersen, Erling Bernhard (September 1970)."Sufficiency and Exponential Families for Discrete Sample Spaces".Journal of the American Statistical Association.65 (331):1248–1255.doi:10.1080/01621459.1970.10481160.ISSN 0162-1459.
  16. ^Bernardo, J.M.;Smith, A.F.M. (1994). "Section 5.1.4".Bayesian Theory. Wiley.ISBN 0-471-92416-4.
  17. ^Blackwell, D.; Ramamoorthi, R. V. (1982)."A Bayes but not classically sufficient statistic".Annals of Statistics.10 (3):1025–1026.doi:10.1214/aos/1176345895.MR 0663456.Zbl 0485.62004.
  18. ^Nogales, A.G.; Oyola, J.A.; Perez, P. (2000)."On conditional independence and the relationship between sufficiency and invariance under the Bayesian point of view".Statistics & Probability Letters.46 (1):75–84.doi:10.1016/S0167-7152(99)00089-9.MR 1731351.Zbl 0964.62003.
  19. ^Goldstein, M.; O'Hagan, A. (1996). "Bayes Linear Sufficiency and Systems of Expert Posterior Assessments".Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B.58 (2):301–316.doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02083.x.JSTOR 2345978.
  20. ^Godambe, V. P. (1966). "A New Approach to Sampling from Finite Populations. II Distribution-Free Sufficiency".Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B.28 (2):320–328.doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1966.tb00645.x.JSTOR 2984375.
  21. ^Witting, T. (1987)."The linear Markov property in credibility theory".ASTIN Bulletin.17 (1):71–84.doi:10.2143/ast.17.1.2014984.hdl:20.500.11850/422507.

References

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