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Score test

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Statistical test based on the gradient of the likelihood function
Not to be confused withTest score.

Instatistics, thescore test assessesconstraints onstatistical parameters based on thegradient of thelikelihood function—known as thescore—evaluated at the hypothesized parameter value under thenull hypothesis. Intuitively, if the restricted estimator is near themaximum of the likelihood function, the score should not differ from zero by more thansampling error. While thefinite sample distributions of score tests are generally unknown, they have an asymptoticχ2-distribution under the null hypothesis as first proved byC. R. Rao in 1948,[1] a fact that can be used to determinestatistical significance.

Since function maximization subject to equality constraints is most conveniently done using a Lagrangean expression of the problem, the score test can be equivalently understood as a test of themagnitude of theLagrange multipliers associated with the constraints where, again, if the constraints are non-binding at the maximum likelihood, the vector of Lagrange multipliers should not differ from zero by more than sampling error. The equivalence of these two approaches was first shown byS. D. Silvey in 1959,[2] which led to the nameLagrange Multiplier (LM) test that has become more commonly used, particularly in econometrics, sinceBreusch andPagan's much-cited 1980 paper.[3]

The main advantage of the score test over theWald test andlikelihood-ratio test is that the score test only requires the computation of the restricted estimator.[4] This makes testing feasible when the unconstrained maximum likelihood estimate is aboundary point in theparameter space.[citation needed] Further, because the score test only requires the estimation of the likelihood function under the null hypothesis, it is less specific than the likelihood ratio test about the alternative hypothesis.[5]

Single-parameter test

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The statistic

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LetL{\displaystyle L} be thelikelihood function which depends on a univariate parameterθ{\displaystyle \theta } and letx{\displaystyle x} be the data. The scoreU(θ){\displaystyle U(\theta )} is defined as

U(θ)=logL(θx)θ.{\displaystyle U(\theta )={\frac {\partial \log L(\theta \mid x)}{\partial \theta }}.}

TheFisher information is[6]

I(θ)=E[2θ2logf(X;θ)|θ],{\displaystyle I(\theta )=-\operatorname {E} \left[\left.{\frac {\partial ^{2}}{\partial \theta ^{2}}}\log f(X;\theta )\,\right|\,\theta \right]\,,}

where ƒ is the probability density.

The statistic to testH0:θ=θ0{\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}_{0}:\theta =\theta _{0}} isS(θ0)=U(θ0)2I(θ0){\displaystyle S(\theta _{0})={\frac {U(\theta _{0})^{2}}{I(\theta _{0})}}}

which has anasymptotic distribution ofχ12{\displaystyle \chi _{1}^{2}}, whenH0{\displaystyle {\mathcal {H}}_{0}} is true. While asymptotically identical, calculating the LM statistic using theouter-gradient-product estimator of the Fisher information matrix can lead to bias in small samples.[7]

Note on notation

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Note that some texts use an alternative notation, in which the statisticS(θ)=S(θ){\displaystyle S^{*}(\theta )={\sqrt {S(\theta )}}} is tested against a normal distribution. This approach is equivalent and gives identical results.

As most powerful test for small deviations

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(logL(θx)θ)θ=θ0C{\displaystyle \left({\frac {\partial \log L(\theta \mid x)}{\partial \theta }}\right)_{\theta =\theta _{0}}\geq C}

whereL{\displaystyle L} is thelikelihood function,θ0{\displaystyle \theta _{0}} is the value of the parameter of interest under the null hypothesis, andC{\displaystyle C} is a constant set depending on the size of the test desired (i.e. the probability of rejectingH0{\displaystyle H_{0}} ifH0{\displaystyle H_{0}} is true; seeType I error).

The score test is the most powerful test for small deviations fromH0{\displaystyle H_{0}}. To see this, consider testingθ=θ0{\displaystyle \theta =\theta _{0}} versusθ=θ0+h{\displaystyle \theta =\theta _{0}+h}. By theNeyman–Pearson lemma, the most powerful test has the form

L(θ0+hx)L(θ0x)K;{\displaystyle {\frac {L(\theta _{0}+h\mid x)}{L(\theta _{0}\mid x)}}\geq K;}

Taking the log of both sides yields

logL(θ0+hx)logL(θ0x)logK.{\displaystyle \log L(\theta _{0}+h\mid x)-\log L(\theta _{0}\mid x)\geq \log K.}

The score test follows making the substitution (byTaylor series expansion)

logL(θ0+hx)logL(θ0x)+h×(logL(θx)θ)θ=θ0{\displaystyle \log L(\theta _{0}+h\mid x)\approx \log L(\theta _{0}\mid x)+h\times \left({\frac {\partial \log L(\theta \mid x)}{\partial \theta }}\right)_{\theta =\theta _{0}}}

and identifying theC{\displaystyle C} above withlog(K){\displaystyle \log(K)}.

Relationship with other hypothesis tests

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If the null hypothesis is true, thelikelihood ratio test, theWald test, and the score test are asymptotically equivalent tests of hypotheses.[8][9] When testingnested models, the statistics for each test then converge to a Chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the difference in degrees of freedom in the two models. If the null hypothesis is not true, however, the statistics converge to a noncentral chi-squared distribution with possibly different noncentrality parameters.

Multiple parameters

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A more general score test can be derived when there is more than one parameter. Suppose thatθ^0{\displaystyle {\widehat {\theta }}_{0}} is themaximum likelihood estimate ofθ{\displaystyle \theta } under the null hypothesisH0{\displaystyle H_{0}} whileU{\displaystyle U} andI{\displaystyle I} are respectively, the score vector and the Fisher information matrix. Then

UT(θ^0)I1(θ^0)U(θ^0)χk2{\displaystyle U^{T}({\widehat {\theta }}_{0})I^{-1}({\widehat {\theta }}_{0})U({\widehat {\theta }}_{0})\sim \chi _{k}^{2}}

asymptotically underH0{\displaystyle H_{0}}, wherek{\displaystyle k} is the number of constraints imposed by the null hypothesis and

U(θ^0)=logL(θ^0x)θ{\displaystyle U({\widehat {\theta }}_{0})={\frac {\partial \log L({\widehat {\theta }}_{0}\mid x)}{\partial \theta }}}

and

I(θ^0)=E(2logL(θ^0x)θθ).{\displaystyle I({\widehat {\theta }}_{0})=-\operatorname {E} \left({\frac {\partial ^{2}\log L({\widehat {\theta }}_{0}\mid x)}{\partial \theta \,\partial \theta '}}\right).}

This can be used to testH0{\displaystyle H_{0}}.

The actual formula for the test statistic depends on which estimator of the Fisher information matrix is being used.[10]

Special cases

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In many situations, the score statistic reduces to another commonly used statistic.[11]

Inlinear regression, the Lagrange multiplier test can be expressed as a function of theF-test.[12]

When the data follows a normal distribution, the score statistic is the same as thet statistic.[clarification needed]

When the data consists of binary observations, the score statistic is the same as the chi-squared statistic in thePearson's chi-squared test.

See also

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References

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  1. ^Rao, C. Radhakrishna (1948). "Large sample tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters with applications to problems of estimation".Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.44 (1):50–57.Bibcode:1948PCPS...44...50R.doi:10.1017/S0305004100023987.
  2. ^Silvey, S. D. (1959)."The Lagrangian Multiplier Test".Annals of Mathematical Statistics.30 (2):389–407.doi:10.1214/aoms/1177706259.JSTOR 2237089.
  3. ^Breusch, T. S.;Pagan, A. R. (1980). "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics".Review of Economic Studies.47 (1):239–253.doi:10.2307/2297111.JSTOR 2297111.
  4. ^Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Kneib, Thomas; Lang, Stefan; Marx, Brian (2013).Regression : Models, Methods and Applications. Berlin: Springer. pp. 663–664.ISBN 978-3-642-34332-2.
  5. ^Kennedy, Peter (1998).A Guide to Econometrics (Fourth ed.). Cambridge: MIT Press. p. 68.ISBN 0-262-11235-3.
  6. ^Lehmann and Casella, eq. (2.5.16).
  7. ^Davidson, Russel; MacKinnon, James G. (1983). "Small sample properties of alternative forms of the Lagrange Multiplier test".Economics Letters.12 (3–4):269–275.doi:10.1016/0165-1765(83)90048-4.
  8. ^Engle, Robert F. (1983). "Wald, Likelihood Ratio, and Lagrange Multiplier Tests in Econometrics". In Intriligator, M. D.; Griliches, Z. (eds.).Handbook of Econometrics. Vol. II. Elsevier. pp. 796–801.ISBN 978-0-444-86185-6.
  9. ^Burzykowski, Andrzej Gałecki, Tomasz (2013).Linear mixed-effects models using R : a step-by-step approach. New York, NY: Springer.ISBN 978-1-4614-3899-1.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  10. ^Taboga, Marco."Lectures on Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics".statlect.com. Retrieved31 May 2022.
  11. ^Cook, T. D.; DeMets, D. L., eds. (2007).Introduction to Statistical Methods for Clinical Trials. Chapman and Hall. pp. 296–297.ISBN 978-1-58488-027-1.
  12. ^Vandaele, Walter (1981). "Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier tests as an F test".Economics Letters.8 (4):361–365.doi:10.1016/0165-1765(81)90026-4.

Further reading

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  • Buse, A. (1982). "The Likelihood Ratio, Wald, and Lagrange Multiplier Tests: An Expository Note".The American Statistician.36 (3a):153–157.doi:10.1080/00031305.1982.10482817.
  • Godfrey, L. G. (1988). "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Testing for Misspecification : An Extended Analysis".Misspecification Tests in Econometrics. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 69–99.ISBN 0-521-26616-5.
  • Ma, Jun; Nelson, Charles R. (2016). "The superiority of the LM test in a class of econometric models where the Wald test performs poorly".Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics. Oxford University Press. pp. 310–330.doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683666.003.0014.ISBN 978-0-19-968366-6.
  • Rao, C. R. (2005). "Score Test: Historical Review and Recent Developments".Advances in Ranking and Selection, Multiple Comparisons, and Reliability. Boston: Birkhäuser. pp. 3–20.ISBN 978-0-8176-3232-8.
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