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Real and nominal value

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Value in economics and accounting
Part of thebehavioral sciences
Economics
Principles of Economics

Ineconomics,nominalvalue refers to value measured in terms of absolutemoney amounts, whereasreal value is considered and measured against the actualgoods or services for which it can be exchanged at a given time. Real value takes into account inflation and thevalue of an asset in relation to itspurchasing power. In macroeconomics, thereal gross domestic product compensates for inflation so economists can exclude inflation from growth figures, and see how much an economy actually grows. Nominal GDP would include inflation, and thus be higher.

Commodity bundles, price indices and inflation

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Acommodity bundle is a sample ofgoods, which is used to represent the sum total of goods across the economy to which the goods belong, for the purpose of comparison across different times (or locations). At a single point of time, a commodity bundle consists of a list of goods, and each good in the list has a market price and a quantity. The market value of the good is the market price times the quantity at that point of time. Thenominal value of the commodity bundle at a point of time is the total market value of the commodity bundle, depending on the market price, and the quantity, of each good in the commodity bundle which are current at the time.

Aprice index is the relative price of a commodity bundle. A price index can be measured over time, or at different locations or markets. If it is measured over time, it is a series of valuesPt{\displaystyle P_{t}} over timet{\displaystyle t}. Atime series price index is calculated relative to abase orreference date.P0{\displaystyle P_{0}} is the value of the index at the base date. For example, if the base date is (the end of) 1992,P0{\displaystyle P_{0}} is the value of the index at (the end of) 1992. The price index is typicallynormalized to start at 100 at the base date, soP0{\displaystyle P_{0}} is set to 100.

The length of time between each value oft{\displaystyle t} and the next one, is normally constant regular time interval, such as a calendar year.Pt{\displaystyle P_{t}} is the value of the price index at timet{\displaystyle t} after the base date.Pt{\displaystyle P_{t}} equals 100 times the value of the commodity bundle at timet{\displaystyle t}, divided by the value of the commodity bundle at the base date. If the price of the commodity bundle has increased by one percent over the first period after the base date, thenP1 = 101.

Theinflation rateit{\displaystyle i_{t}} between timet1{\displaystyle t-1} and timet{\displaystyle t} is the change in the price index divided by the price index value at timet1{\displaystyle t-1}:

it=PtPt1Pt1{\displaystyle i_{t}={\frac {P_{t}-P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}}}

=PtPt11{\displaystyle ={\frac {P_{t}}{P_{t-1}}}-1}

expressed as a percentage.

Real value

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The nominal value of a commodity bundle tends to change over time. In contrast, by definition, thereal value of the commodity bundle in aggregate remains the same over time. The real values of individual goods or commodities may rise or fall against each other, in relative terms, but a representative commodity bundle as a whole retains its real value as a constant from one period to the next. Real values can for example be expressed inconstant 1992 dollars, with the price level fixed 100 at the base date.

Comparison of real and nominal gas prices 1996 to 2016, illustrating the formula for conversion. Here the base year is 2016.

The price index is applied to adjust the nominal valueQ{\displaystyle Q} of a quantity, such as wages or total production, to obtain its real value. The real value is the value expressed in terms ofpurchasing power in the base year. The index price divided by its base-year valuePt/P0{\displaystyle P_{t}/P_{0}} gives the growth factor of the price index. Real values can be found by dividing the nominal value by the growth factor of a price index. Using the price index growth factor as a divisor for converting a nominal value into a real value, the real value at timet relative to the base date is:

P0QtPt{\displaystyle {\frac {P_{0}\cdot Q_{t}}{P_{t}}}}

Real growth rate

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The real growth ratert{\displaystyle r_{t}} is the change in a nominal quantityQt{\displaystyle Q_{t}} in real terms since the previous datet1{\displaystyle t-1}. It measures by how much the buying power of the quantity has changed over a single period.

rt=P0QtPt/P0Qt1Pt11{\displaystyle r_{t}={\frac {P_{0}\cdot Q_{t}}{P_{t}}}{\Bigg /}{\frac {P_{0}\cdot Q_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}}-1}
=Pt1QtPtQt11{\displaystyle ={\frac {P_{t-1}\cdot Q_{t}}{P_{t}\cdot Q_{t-1}}}-1}
=QtQt1(PtPt1)11{\displaystyle ={\frac {Q_{t}}{Q_{t-1}}}({\frac {P_{t}}{P_{t-1}}})^{-1}-1}
=1+gt1+it1{\displaystyle ={\frac {1+g_{t}}{1+i_{t}}}-1}

wheregt{\displaystyle g_{t}} is the nominal growth rate ofQt{\displaystyle Q_{t}}, andit{\displaystyle i_{t}} is the inflation rate.

1+rt=1+gt1+it{\displaystyle 1+r_{t}={\frac {1+g_{t}}{1+i_{t}}}}

For values ofit{\displaystyle i_{t}} between −1 and 1 (i.e. ±100 percent), we have theTaylor series

(1+it)1=1it+it2it3+...{\displaystyle (1+i_{t})^{-1}=1-i_{t}+i_{t}^{2}-i_{t}^{3}+...}

so

1+rt=(1+gt)(1it+it2it3+...){\displaystyle 1+r_{t}=(1+g_{t})(1-i_{t}+i_{t}^{2}-i_{t}^{3}+...)}
=1+gtitgtit+it2+higher order terms.{\displaystyle =1+g_{t}-i_{t}-g_{t}i_{t}+i_{t}^{2}+{\text{higher order terms.}}}

Hence as a first-order (i.e. linear) approximation,

rt=gtit{\displaystyle r_{t}=g_{t}-i_{t}}

Real wages and real gross domestic products

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The bundle of goods used to measure theConsumer Price Index (CPI) is applicable to consumers. So for wage earners as consumers, an appropriate way to measure real wages (the buying power of wages) is to divide the nominal wage (after-tax) by the growth factor in the CPI.Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of aggregate output. Nominal GDP in a particular period reflects prices that were current at the time, whereas real GDP compensates for inflation. Price indices and the U.S.National Income and Product Accounts are constructed from bundles of commodities and their respective prices. In the case of GDP, a suitable price index is theGDP price index. In the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, nominal GDP is calledGDP in current dollars (that is, in prices current for each designated year), and real GDP is calledGDP in [base-year] dollars (that is, in dollars that canpurchase the same quantity of commodities as in the base year).

Example

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If for years 1 and 2 (possibly a span of 20 years apart), the nominal wage and price levelP of goods are respectively
nominal wage rate: $10 in year 1 and $16 in year 2
price level: 1.00 in year 1 and 1.333 in year 2,

then real wages using year 1 as the base year are respectively:

$10 (= $10/1.00) in year 1 and $12 (= $16/1.333) in year 2.

The real wage each year measures the buying power of the hourly wage in common terms. In this example, the real wage rate increased by 20 percent, meaning that an hour's wage would buy 20% more goods in year 2 compared with year 1.

Real interest rates

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Main article:Real interest rate

As was shown in the section above on the real growth rate,

1+rt=1+gt1+it{\displaystyle 1+r_{t}={\frac {1+g_{t}}{1+i_{t}}}}

where

rt{\displaystyle r_{t}} is the rate of increase of a quantity in real terms,
gt{\displaystyle g_{t}} is the rate of increase of the same quantity in nominal terms, and
it{\displaystyle i_{t}} is the rate of inflation,

and as a first-order approximation,

rt=gtit.{\displaystyle r_{t}=g_{t}-i_{t}.}

In the case where the growing quantity is afinancial asset,gt{\displaystyle g_{t}} is anominal interest rate andrt{\displaystyle r_{t}} is the correspondingreal interest rate; the first-order approximationrt=gtit{\displaystyle r_{t}=g_{t}-i_{t}} is known as theFisher equation.[1] Looking back into the past, theex post real interest rate is approximately the historical nominal interest rate minus inflation. Looking forward into the future, the expected real interest rate is approximately the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate.

Cross-sectional comparison

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Not onlytime-series data, as above, but alsocross-sectional data which depends on prices which may vary geographically for example, can be adjusted in a similar way. For example, the total value of a good produced in a region of a country depends on both the amount and the price. To compare the output of different regions, the nominal output in a region can be adjusted by repricing the goods at common or average prices.

See also

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References

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  1. ^Benninga, Simon; Oded Sarig (1997).Corporate Finance: A Valuation Approach.The McGraw-Hill Companies. pp. 21.ISBN 0-07-005099-6.

Bibliography

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External links

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