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Probable defeat (Chinese:可能失败) is a theory of the development ofsocialism held byMao Zedong, holding that it is more likely thatrevisionism will result in the restoration of capitalism than socialism actually develop intocommunism.
Specifically arising after theDe-Stalinization campaign pursued byNikita Khrushchev, Mao pointed to what he saw as a full restoration of capitalism in theSoviet Union after the death ofJoseph Stalin as evidence to how quickly socialism could be overthrown if the masses were not mobilized to fight against what Mao saw as the main root of potential capitalist restoration, the party itself. Instead of fearing the remnants of capitalist society most, Mao argued that under socialism thevanguard party could become parasitic and even declared the existence of a "bureaucratic class" that was working against the workers.[1] This was a key inspiration behind theCultural Revolution launched in 1966, with the warning finding appeal in the youth of China at the time, particularly among the studentRed Guards who launched criticisms of members of theChinese Communist Party itself.[citation needed]
Unlike most adherents ofhistorical materialism, Mao did not see socialism even as a likely development arising out of the development of capitalism. Instead, Mao claimed that "[m]ost probably revisionism will win out, and we will be defeated."[2] The solution to this was to emphasize probable defeat, in order to keep the masses in a state of anxiety against capitalist elements.[3] Mao toldAndré Malraux, for example, that "[v]ictory is the mother of many illusions," referring specifically to the outcome of socialism.[4]
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