Bias due to confusion between accuracy and precision
Precision bias also known asnumeracy bias is a form ofcognitive bias[1] in which an evaluator of information commits a logicalfallacy as the result of confusingaccuracy and precision.[2] More particularly, in assessing the merits of an argument, a measurement, or a report, an observer or assessor falls prey to precision bias when they believe that greater precision implies greater accuracy (i.e., that simply because a statement is precise, it is also true); the observer or assessor are said to providefalse precision.[3][4]
Theclustering illusion[5] and theTexas sharpshooter fallacy[6] may both be treated as relatives of precision bias. In these related fallacies, precision is mistakenly considered evidence of causation, when in fact the clustered information may actually be the result ofrandomness.
^Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2011), held in Boston, USA 20-32 July 2011 / L. Carlson, C. Hoelscher and T. Shipley (eds.): pp.1521-1526
