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Potentially hazardous object

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hazardous near-Earth asteroid or comet
The asteroidToutatis is listed as a potentially hazardousnear-Earthasteroid, yet poses no immediate threat to Earth. (Radar image taken byGDSCC in 1996.)

Apotentially hazardous object (PHO) is anear-Earth object – either anasteroid or acomet – with anorbit that can make close approaches to theEarth and which is large enough to cause significant regional damage in theevent of impact.[1] They are conventionally defined as having aminimum orbit intersection distance with Earth of less than 0.05astronomical units (19.5lunar distances) and anabsolute magnitude of 22 or brighter, the latter of which roughly corresponds to a size larger than 140 meters.[2] More than 99% of the known potentially hazardous objects are no impact threat over the next 100 years.[3] As of February 2025[update], just 21 of the known potentially hazardous objects listed on theSentry Risk Table could not be excluded as potential threats over the next hundred years.[4] Over hundreds if not thousands of years though, the orbits of some "potentially hazardous" asteroids can evolve to live up to their namesake.

Most of these objects arepotentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), and a few arecomets. As of November 2022[update] there are 2,304 known PHAs (about 8% of the total near-Earth population), of which 153 are estimated to be larger than one kilometer in diameter(see list oflargest PHAs below).[5][6][a] Most of the discovered PHAs areApollo asteroids (1,965) and fewer belong to the group ofAten asteroids (185).[7][8]

A potentially hazardous object can be known not to be a threat to Earth for the next 100 years or more, if its orbit is reasonably well determined. Potentially hazardous asteroids with some threat of impacting Earth in the next 100 years are listed on the Sentry Risk Table. As of September 2022[update], only 17 potentially hazardous asteroids are listed on the Sentry Risk Table.[4] Most potentially hazardous asteroids are ruled out as hazardous to at least several hundreds of years when their competing best orbit models are sufficiently constrained, but recent discoveries whose orbital constraints are little-known have divergent or incomplete mechanical models until observation yields further data. After severalastronomical surveys, the number of known PHAs has increased tenfold since the end of the 1990s(seebar charts below).[5] TheMinor Planet Center's websiteList of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids also publishes detailed information for these objects.[9]

In May 2021, NASA astronomers reported that 5 to 10 years of preparation may be needed to avoid apotential impactor, as most recently based on a simulated exercise conducted by the 2021 Planetary Defense Conference.[10][11][12]

Overview

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Plot of orbits of known potentially hazardous asteroids, with sizes over 140 metres (460 ft) and that pass within 7.6 million kilometres (4.7×10^6 mi) of Earth's orbit.Epoch as of early 2013.

An object is considered a PHO if itsminimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) with respect to Earth is less than 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km; 4,600,000 mi) – approximately 19.5 lunar distances – and itsabsolute magnitude is brighter than 22, approximately corresponding to a diameter above 140 meters (460 ft).[1][2] This is big enough to cause regional devastation to human settlements unprecedented in human history in the case of a land impact, or a majortsunami in the case of anocean impact. Such impact events occur on average around once per 10,000 years.NEOWISE data estimates that there are 4,700 ± 1,500 potentially hazardous asteroids with a diameter greater than 100 meters.[13]

Levels of hazard

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Main articles:Torino scale andPalermo scale

The two main scales used to categorize the impact hazards of asteroids are the Palermo scale and the Torino scale.

Potentially hazardous comet

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Apotentially hazardous comet (PHC) is a short-period comet which currently has an Earth-MOID less than 0.05 AU. Known PHCs include:109P/Swift-Tuttle,55P/Tempel–Tuttle,15P/Finlay,289P/Blanpain,255P/Levy,206P/Barnard–Boattini,21P/Giacobini–Zinner, and73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann.Halley's Comet fit the criteria before AD 837, when it passed the earth at a distance of 0.033 AU. It now has an MOID of 0.075 AU.

Numbers

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DetectedNEAs by variousprojects. The broader class of NEAs includes all PHAs as a subset.[5]
  LINEAR
  NEAT
  Spacewatch
  LONEOS
  CSS
  Pan-STARRS
  NEOWISE
  ATLAS
  Others

In 2012NASA estimated 20 to 30 percent of these objects have been found.[13] During an asteroid's close approaches to another planet it will be subject to gravitationalperturbation, modifying its orbit, and potentially changing a previously non-threatening asteroid into a PHA or vice versa. This is a reflection of the dynamic character of the Solar System.

Severalastronomical survey projects such asLincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research,Catalina Sky Survey andPan-STARRS continue to search for more PHOs. Each one found is studied by various means, including optical,radar, andinfrared to determine its characteristics, such as size, composition, rotation state, and to more accurately determine its orbit. Both professional andamateur astronomers participate in such observation and tracking.

Size

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Asteroids larger than approximately 35 meters across can pose a threat to a town or city.[14] However the diameter of most small asteroids is not well determined, as it is usually only estimated based on their brightness and distance, rather than directly measured, e.g. from radar observations. For this reasonNASA and theJet Propulsion Laboratory use the more practical measure ofabsolute magnitude (H). Any asteroid with an absolute magnitude of 22.0 or brighter is assumed to be of the required size.[2]

Only a coarse estimation of size can be found from the object's magnitude because an assumption must be made for itsalbedo which is also not usually known for certain. The NASAnear-Earth object program uses an assumedalbedo of 0.14 for this purpose. In May 2016, the asteroid size estimates arising from theWide-field Infrared Survey Explorer andNEOWISE missions have been questioned.[15][16][17] Although the early original criticism had not undergone peer review,[18] a more recent peer-reviewed study was subsequently published.[19][20]

Largest PHAs

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With amean diameter of approximately 7 kilometers, Apollo asteroid(53319) 1999 JM8 is likely the largest known potentially hazardous object, despite its fainterabsolute magnitude of 15.2, compared to other listed objects in the table below(note: calculated mean-diameters in table are inferred from the object's brightness and its (assumed) albedo. They are only an approximation.).

Brightest Potentially Hazardous Asteroids[9]
DesignationDiscovery(H)
(mag)
D
(km)
Orbital descriptionRemarksReferences
YearPlaceDiscovererClassa
(AU)
ei
(°)
q
(AU)
Q
(AU)
MOID
(AU)
(4953) 1990 MU1990413R. H. McNaught14.13APO1.6210.65824.40.5552.6870.02640MPC · JPL · catalog
3122 Florence1981413S. J. Bus14.15AMO1.7690.42322.21.0202.5180.04430MPC · JPL · catalog
(16960) 1998 QS521998704LINEAR14.34APO2.2030.85817.50.3134.0930.01443MPC · JPL · catalog
4183 Cuno1959074C. Hoffmeister14.44APO1.9820.6346.70.7253.2400.02825MPC · JPL · catalog
3200 Phaethon1983500IRAS14.65.8APO1.2710.89022.30.1402.4020.01945MPC · JPL · catalog
(242450) 2004 QY22004E12Siding Spring Survey14.73APO1.0840.47737.00.5671.6010.04686MPC · JPL · catalog
(89830) 2002 CE2002704LINEAR14.93.1AMO2.0770.50743.71.0233.1310.02767MPC · JPL · catalog
(137427) 1999 TF2111999704LINEAR15.12.9APO2.4480.61039.20.9553.9420.01787MPC · JPL · catalog
(111253) 2001 XU102001704LINEAR15.23APO1.7540.43942.00.9832.5240.02934MPC · JPL · catalog
(53319) 1999 JM81999704LINEAR15.27APO2.7260.64113.80.9784.4740.02346Likely largest PHOMPC · JPL · catalog
1981 Midas1973675C. T. Kowal15.22APO1.7760.65039.80.6212.9310.00449MPC · JPL · catalog
2201 Oljato1947690H. L. Giclas15.252.1APO2.1750.7132.50.6243.7260.00305MPC · JPL · catalog
(90075) 2002 VU942002644NEAT15.32.2APO2.1340.5768.90.9043.3630.03010MPC · JPL · catalog
4179 Toutatis1989010C. Pollas15.302.5APO2.5360.6290.40.9404.1320.00615MPC · JPL · catalog
(159857) 2004 LJ12004704LINEAR15.43APO2.2640.59323.10.9203.6070.01682MPC · JPL · catalog
(85713) 1998 SS491998704LINEAR15.63.5APO1.9240.63910.80.6943.1540.00234MPC · JPL · catalog
4486 Mithra1987071E. W. Elst
V. G. Shkodrov
15.62APO2.2000.6633.00.7423.6580.04626MPC · JPL · catalog
1620 Geographos1951675A. G. Wilson
R. Minkowski
15.602.5APO1.2450.33513.30.8281.6630.03007MPC · JPL · catalog
(415029) 2011 UL212011703CSS15.72.5APO2.1220.65334.90.7363.5090.01925MPC · JPL · catalog
(242216) 2003 RN102003699LONEOS15.72.5AMO2.2310.54139.61.0243.4380.00956MPC · JPL · catalog
12923 Zephyr1999699LONEOS15.82APO1.9620.4925.30.9962.9270.02115MPC · JPL · catalog
(52768) 1998 OR21998566NEAT15.82APO2.3800.5735.91.0173.7430.01573MPC · JPL · catalog

Statistics

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Below is a list of the largest PHAs (based onabsolute magnitude H) discovered in a given year. Historical data of the cumulative number of discovered PHA since 1999 are displayed in the bar charts—one for the total number and the other for objects larger than one kilometer.[5] PHAs brighter than absolute magnitude 17.75 are likely larger than 1 km in size.

Brightest PHA discoveries of each calendar year since 1989[9]
NumberNameYear(H)Refs
4179Toutatis198915.3MPC · JPL · catalog
49531990 MU199014.9MPC · JPL · catalog
73411991 VH199117.0MPC · JPL · catalog
101151992 SK199217.2MPC · JPL · catalog
395721993 DQ1199316.6MPC · JPL · catalog
74821994 PC1199416.7MPC · JPL · catalog
2435661995 SA199517.4MPC · JPL · catalog
85661996 EN199616.3MPC · JPL · catalog
353961997 XF11199717.0MPC · JPL · catalog
169601998 QS52199814.4MPC · JPL · catalog
1374271999 TF211199915.3MPC · JPL · catalog
1380952000 DK79200016.0MPC · JPL · catalog
1112532001 XU10200115.3MPC · JPL · catalog
898302002 CE200215.0MPC · JPL · catalog
2422162003 RN10200315.7MPC · JPL · catalog
2424502004 QY2200414.6MPC · JPL · catalog
3082422005 GO21200516.3MPC · JPL · catalog
3748512006 VV2200616.7MPC · JPL · catalog
2148692007 PA8200716.5MPC · JPL · catalog
2947392008 CM200817.1MPC · JPL · catalog
5236302009 OG200916.2MPC · JPL · catalog
4581222010 EW45201017.6MPC · JPL · catalog
4150292011 UL21201115.9MPC · JPL · catalog
7468492012 HJ1201217.9MPC · JPL · catalog
5077162013 UP8201316.4MPC · JPL · catalog
5336712014 LJ21201416.1MPC · JPL · catalog
2015 HY116201517.6MPC · JPL ·
6200952016 CB194201617.6MPC · JPL · catalog
2017 CH1201717.9MPC · JPL ·
7563162018 XV5201817.7MPC · JPL · catalog
2019 RU3201918.1MPC · JPL ·
2020 SL1202017.7MPC · JPL ·
2021 HK12202117.7MPC · JPL ·
2022 AP7202217.3MPC · JPL ·
2023 QF5202318.3MPC · JPL ·
2024 YU4202419.0MPC · JPL ·
50
100
150
200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Cumulative number of discovered potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 1 kilometer as of January 1 each year. As of January 2025, there are 154 known PHAs larger than one kilometer.[5]
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Cumulative number of all discovered PHAs as of January 1 of each year. As of January 2025, there are 2473 PHAs.[5]

Gallery

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See also

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Notes

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  1. ^An object's calculated mean-diameter is only a rough estimate. It is inferred from the object's varying brightness—observed and measured at various times—and the assumed, yet often unknown reflectivity of its surface. NASA'sAsteroid Size Estimator is a tool for a genericabsolute magnitude-to-diameter conversion for an assumedgeometric albedo.

References

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  1. ^abTask Force on potentially hazardous Near Earth Objects (September 2000)."Report of the Task Force on potentially hazardous Near Earth Objects"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 10 December 2016. Retrieved22 January 2018.{{cite journal}}:Cite journal requires|journal= (help)
  2. ^abc"NEO Basics – Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs)". CNEOS NASA/JPL. Retrieved16 January 2020.
  3. ^(17Sentry "risk-listed" PHAs /2289 known PHAs) ≈ 0.74%
  4. ^ab"Sentry Risk Table". Retrieved2022-09-29. (Click "Use Unconstrained Settings" and select "H<=22" for list of PHAs)
  5. ^abcdef"Discovery Statistics – Cumulative Totals". CNEOS NASA/JPL. 7 January 2020. Retrieved16 January 2020.
  6. ^"Unusual Minor Planets – Overview". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved16 January 2020.
  7. ^"JPL Small-Body Database Search Engine: PHAs and orbital class (APO)". JPL Solar System Dynamics. Retrieved16 January 2020.
  8. ^"JPL Small-Body Database Search Engine: PHAs and orbital class (ATE)". JPL Solar System Dynamics. Retrieved16 January 2020.
  9. ^abc"List of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs)". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved16 January 2018.
  10. ^McFall-Johnsen, Morgan; Woodward, Aylin (12 May 2021)."A NASA simulation revealed that 6 months' warning isn't enough to stop an asteroid from hitting Earth. We'd need 5 to 10 years".Business Insider. Retrieved14 May 2021.
  11. ^Bartels, Meghan (1 May 2021)."How did you spend your week? NASA pretended to crash an asteroid into Earth".Space.com. Retrieved14 May 2021.
  12. ^Chodas, Paul; Khudikyan, Shakeh; Chamberlin, Alan (30 April 2021)."Planetary Defense Conference Exercise – 2021 Planetary Defense Conference (virtually) in Vienna, Austria, April 26–April 30, 2021".NASA. Retrieved14 May 2021.
  13. ^ab"NASA news – NASA Survey Counts Potentially Hazardous Asteroids". NASA/JPL. 16 May 2012. Retrieved22 January 2018.
  14. ^Will Ferguson (22 January 2013)."Asteroid Hunter Gives an Update on the Threat of Near-Earth Objects".Scientific American. Retrieved2013-01-23.
  15. ^Chang, Kenneth (23 May 2016)."How Big Are Those Killer Asteroids? A Critic Says NASA Doesn't Know".The New York Times. Retrieved24 May 2016.
  16. ^Myhrvold, Nathan (23 May 2016). "Asteroid thermal modeling in the presence of reflected sunlight with an application to WISE/NEOWISE observational data".arXiv:1605.06490v2 [astro-ph.EP].
  17. ^Billings, Lee (27 May 2016)."For Asteroid-Hunting Astronomers, Nathan Myhrvold Says the Sky Is Falling".Scientific American. Retrieved28 May 2016.
  18. ^NASA Administrator (25 May 2016)."NASA Response to Recent Paper on NEOWISE Asteroid Size Results".NASA. Retrieved29 May 2016.
  19. ^Myhrvold, Nathan (2018)."An empirical examination of WISE/NEOWISE asteroid analysis and results".Icarus.314:64–97.Bibcode:2018Icar..314...64M.doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2018.05.004.
  20. ^Chang, Kenneth (14 June 2018)."Asteroids and Adversaries: Challenging What NASA Knows About Space Rocks – Two years ago, NASA dismissed and mocked an amateur's criticisms of its asteroids database. Now Nathan Myhrvold is back, and his papers have passed peer review".The New York Times. Retrieved14 June 2018.

External links

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