Apotential superpower is asovereign state or otherpolity that is speculated to be or have the potential to become asuperpower; a sovereign state orsupranational union that holds a dominant position and canexert influence andproject power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means.[1][2][3]
TheUnited States is currently considered the world'sforemost superpower,[4] as it is the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus,[5] with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one.[6][needs update]China has received significant coverage as either a potential or established superpower.[7][8][9] TheEuropean Union,Russia andIndia have also been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century;Japan was a former candidate in the 1980s.
ThePeople's Republic of China has arguably received the most consistent coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,[a] and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.[16][17][18][19] One source argued that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower, having high economic growth and a large population.[20] According to formerU.S. Secretary of StateAntony Blinken, China represents the "biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century" to the United States, as it is "the only country with enoughpower tojeopardize the currentglobal order".[21]
There has been great focus on China's growing economic activity on the global stage, in particular where it has been in competition with the United States: for example, the establishment and large-scale expansion in countries joining theAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to traditional western institutions, along with theBelt and Road Initiative and China's role in theworldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.[22][23] It has also been argued that there is likely to be growing competition in future between two highly dominant countries, the United States and China, while others begin to lag behind economically.[24] It has also been predicted that China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.[25] Due tothe country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".[26][27][28]
But some have questioned how long this pace of economic growth could continue, with emphasis placed not only on China's very large butageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, but also long-term effects of pollution within the country that have accumulated during its fast pace of industrialisation.[29][30][31] The damage to the country's environment has been extremely costly, mostly due to an inability of poor regions to afford environmental regulations,[32] but also a broader freshwater crisis stemming from inefficient management, pollution, and climate change.[33] China also has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country in the same way other countries like the United States have.[34] A supposed lack ofsoft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.[35][36]
TheUnited States military planners considers China as the US' most capable and formidable adversary.[37] There has been argument that its ties with Russia and Central Asia could see theShanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East".[38] It has also been argued that American absence from the Indo-Pacific region during thewar on terror has allowed the Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.[39] But others have argued that China is still surrounded by potentially hostile nations, and lacks the friends or allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.[40]
TheEuropean Union (EU) has been called an emerging or current superpower, mainly due to its economic power and global political influence. Factors highlighted have included its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.[41][42]
Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still in the hands of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.[43][44] Others disagree, saying that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines its claim to be a potential superpower.[45][46]
There have also been conflicting views about the EU's lack of political integration. Some have argued that its "lower profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration as a superpower, rather than simply failing to meet them.[42][47] Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,[48][20] and it has even been argued that the EU is little more than an extension of a Europe reliant on or dominated by the United States.[49]
The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to theBrussels effect, which suggests thatregulations andstandards applicable in the EU will also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.[50][51][52]
Russia, sinceits imperial times, has been considered both agreat power and aregional power. Throughout most of theSoviet-era, the Soviet Union was one of the world's twosuperpowers. However, after thedissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation as its successor state lost its superpower status. In the early 21st century, Russia has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status,[53][54][55] while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.[56] In his 2005 publication entitledRussia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower,Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics atUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.[57][page needed]Stephen Kinzer ofThe Boston Globe compared Russia's actions with its own neighbouring territories, to those of "any other superpower", takingUkraine andCrimea as examples.[58]
Others however have put forward more pessimistic views towards Russia's ability to regain its superpower status. A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of theLos Angeles Times, contending that severe climate change would be necessary for much of Russia's inherent natural resources to become viable.[59]
Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population.Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.[60] In 2011, British historian and professorNiall Ferguson also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".[61] Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since the late 2000s, partly due to immigration, quickly rising birth rates, slowly declining death rates.[62]
Russia's ability to project hard power was also questioned following theRussian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the Russian military's poor performance prompting economistPaul Krugman to suggest Russia was little more than a "Potemkin Superpower".[63]
India has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower, in particular during the 2010s when it was predicted to outpace China's growth into the future.[b]
Some commentators have made the prediction of India becoming a superpower by 2020, most notably based onA. P. J. Abdul Kalam's bookIndia 2020.[68][69] In 2019, BJP politicianAmit Shah claimed that India would emerge as a superpower in the next 5 years under the rule ofNarendra Modi.[70]
Economists and researchers atHarvard University have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.[71][72] Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 39.[73] In 2003Goldman Sachs predicted that India would become an economic superpower by 2050.[74] In a 2024 interview withThe Independent, former UK PMTony Blair predicted that by 2050 India would be a 'global superpower' along with the United States and China.[75] In 2025 Former UK PMRishi Sunak suggested India is an 'economic superpower'.[76]
While India’s economic growth has continued, some analysts note that inequality remains high and that its trade potential is more limited compared to regional competitors such as China. Although India briefly became the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2015, its growth rate has fallen below China’s since 2018.[c]
It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".[82]
| Country/Union | Population[83][84] | Area (km2) | GDP (nominal)[85] | GDP (PPP)[85] | Military expenditures (Int$ billion)[86] | HDI[87] | UN Security Council veto power | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (USD million) | Per capita ($) | (Int$ million) | Per capita (Int$) | ||||||
 China | 1,411,778,724 | 9,596,961 | 19,231,705 | 13,687 | 39,440,000 | 21,291 | 314 | 0.797 (high) | Yes |
 European Union | 449,206,209 | 4,233,262 | 19,991,535 | 44,387 | 28,044,742 | 53,960 | 337.8[88] | 0.915 (very high) | (France) |
 Russia | 144,458,123 | 17,125,191 | 2,076,396 | 14,258 | 7,130,000 | 49,383 | 149 | 0.832 (very high) | Yes |
 India | 1,456,604,163 | 3,287,263 | 4,187,017 | 2,878 | 17,360,000 | 10,475 | 86.1 | 0.685 (medium) | No |
 United States | 346,238,081 | 9,525,067 | 30,507,217 | 89,105 | 30,337,162 | 75,180 | 997 | 0.938 (very high) | Yes |
In the 1980s, some political and economic analysts predicted thatJapan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, growingeconomic,military,industrial,technological andcultural influence, largegross domestic product, andhigh economic growth at that time.[89][90][91] Japan's economy was expected to eventually surpassthat of the United States.[92][93][90] However, this prediction failed to materialise followinga stock market crash and the resulting "Lost Decades", where Japan has suffered a flat to negative economic outlook,[94] whileits population has been aging since the late 1980s before suffering real decline in total population starting in 2011.[11][95]
Seen from this perspective, such trends clearly that show that China already is a true economic superpower with growing resources and a steadily improving technology base. Its military structure is evolving to the point where China can compare or compete with the U.S. — at least in Asia.
China has emerged as a global economic superpower in recent decades. It is not only the world's second largest economy and the largest exporter by value, but it has also been investing in overseas infrastructure and development at a rapid clip
In 2018, China held 40% of the world's shipbuilding market by gross tons, according to United Nations figures cited by the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, well ahead of second place South Korea at 25%. Put in a historical perspective, China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering – dwarfing even the U.S. efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the U.S. did in four of war (1941–1945).
China, the emerging superpower, netted the highest gains in overall power in 2019, ranking first in half of the eight Index measures. For the first time, China narrowly edged out the United States in the Index's assessment of economic resources. In absolute terms China's economy grew by more than the total size of Australia's economy in 2018. The world's largest trading nation has also paradoxically seen its GDP become less dependent on exports. This makes China less vulnerable to an escalating trade war than most other Asian economies.
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