Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurateopinion polling forUnited States presidential elections.[1][2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner.[3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012.[3] The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted.D represents theDemocratic Party, andR represents theRepublican Party.Third parties, such as theDixiecrats and theReform Party, were included in some polls.[4]
| Month | Franklin D. Roosevelt(D) % | Alf Landon (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| July | 49% | 45% |
| August | 49% | 45% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| 49% | 44% | |
| September | 49% | 45% |
| 50% | 44% | |
| October | 51% | 44% |
| 51% | 44% | |
| 56% | 44% | |
| Actual result | 60.80% | 36.54% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.80% | -7.46% |
After predicting the winners of the previous five elections,The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted thatAlf Landon would win by a large margin.George Gallup predicted aFranklin D. Roosevelt win, based onstatistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of theLiterary Digest results.
The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, theLiterary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent ofLiterary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed. Roosevelt won 57 percent ofLiterary Digest readers who received the poll.[5] Roosevelt won in the largest landslide since the uncontested1820 election, winning every state except Maine and Vermont, since hisNew Deal programs were popular with the American people (apart from the respondents to theLiterary Digest poll). Although Landon said that the New Deal was costly and ineffective and Roosevelt was slowly molding the United States into a dictatorship, his attacks gained little traction.[6]
| Month | Franklin D. Roosevelt(D) % | Wendell Willkie(R)% |
|---|---|---|
| July | 48% | 42% |
| 44% | 43% | |
| August | 45% | 43% |
| 46% | 44% | |
| September | 49% | 40% |
| October | 50% | 40% |
| 51% | 42% | |
| 52% | 48% | |
| Actual result | 54.72% | 44.77% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.72% | -3.23% |
Throughout his campaign, Roosevelt promised to continue the New Deal and not bring the United States into any new wars if he was given another term.Wendell Willkie unsuccessfully attacked Roosevelt for seeking a third term and accused him of trying to turn the United States into a dictatorship by refusing to leave office. Roosevelt led in all polls, and was re-elected by a large margin.[7]
| Month | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % | Thomas E. Dewey (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 55% | 41% |
| 53% | 42% | |
| April | 48% | 46% |
| May | 48% | 47% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| June | 51% | 45% |
| 51% | 44% | |
| July | 46% | 45% |
| 49% | 41% | |
| August | 47% | 42% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| September | 47% | 42% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| 48% | 41% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| October | 48% | 47% |
| 50% | 47% | |
| November | 51% | 48% |
| Actual result | 53.39% | 45.89% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.39% | -2.11% |
Roosevelt actively campaigned in this election against medical advice to counter Republican claims that he was near death. Roosevelt maintained a consistent (although sometimes narrow) lead in the polls, and won a solid victory due to American success inWorld War II and his continued popularity.[8]
| Month | Harry S. Truman (D) % | Thomas E. Dewey (R) % | Henry A. Wallace (Progressive) % | Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 1947/January 1948 | 46% | 41% | 7% | |
| February/March | 39% | 47% | 7% | |
| April/May | ||||
| June/July | 38% | 49% | 6% | |
| 37% | 48% | 5% | ||
| August/September | 37% | 48% | 4% | 2% |
| 36% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
| 39% | 47% | 3% | 2% | |
| 39% | 47% | 3% | 2% | |
| 40% | 46% | 4% | 2% | |
| October[9] | 45% | 50% | 4% | 2% |
| Actual result | 49.55% | 45.07% | 2.37% | 2.41% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.55% | -4.93% | -1.63% | +0.41% |
While incumbent PresidentHarry S. Truman's popularity was low at the end of 1946, it improved with his attack on the "Do-Nothing" Republican Congress of1947–1948 and his association ofThomas E. Dewey with it. Truman also energized segments of the Democratic base by ending segregation in the military and recognizing Israel.[10] Gallup and other polling organizations stopped polling in mid-October, believing that Dewey would win the election, and failed to predict Truman's comeback or his subsequent victory.[2]
| Month | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % | Adlai Stevenson II (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| June | 59% | 31% |
| July | 50% | 43% |
| August | ||
| September | 55% | 40% |
| 55% | 41% | |
| October | 53% | 41% |
| 51% | 38% | |
| 48% | 39% | |
| 48% | 39% | |
| 51% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 55.14% | 44.38% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.14% | -4.62% |
Dissatisfaction with theKorean War,corruption and the threat ofCommunism (theK1c2 formula) allowed World War II heroDwight D. Eisenhower to win the election in a landslide against Democratic opponentAdlai Stevenson II after consistently leading in the polls, mostly by large margins.[11]
| Month | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % | Adlai Stevenson II (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| December 1955/January 1956 | 61% | 35% |
| February/March | 63% | 33% |
| April/May | 61% | 37% |
| 62% | 33% | |
| 62% | 35% | |
| June/July | 62% | 35% |
| 61% | 37% | |
| August/September | 52% | 41% |
| 52% | 41% | |
| 52% | 40% | |
| October/November | 51% | 41% |
| 59% | 40% | |
| Actual result | 57.37% | 41.97% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -1.63% | +1.97% |
After consistently leading in the polls by large margins, incumbent President Eisenhower was easily re-elected due to economic prosperity at home and the end of theKorean War abroad.[12][13]
| Month | John F. Kennedy (D) % | Richard Nixon (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| December 1959/January 1960 | 43% | 48% |
| February/March | 48% | 48% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| April/May | 51% | 44% |
| 48% | 47% | |
| 47% | 49% | |
| June/July | 50% | 46% |
| August/September | 44% | 50% |
| 47% | 47% | |
| 48% | 47% | |
| 46% | 47% | |
| October/November | 49% | 46% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| 51% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 49.72% | 49.55% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -1.28% | +0.55% |
Polls throughout the campaign indicated a very close race. Vice PresidentRichard Nixon initially led, but then had problems (a poor image in the first television debate and a knee injury which prevented him from campaigning) which gave SenatorJohn F. Kennedy—the Democratic candidate, the lead in the polls for most of the campaign. In the end, Kennedy had an extremely close victory.[14]
| Month | Lyndon B. Johnson (D) % | Barry Goldwater (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| June | 77% | 18% |
| 76% | 20% | |
| July | 62% | 26% |
| 59% | 31% | |
| August | 65% | 29% |
| September | 65% | 29% |
| 62% | 32% | |
| October | 64% | 29% |
| 64% | 36% | |
| Actual result | 61.05% | 38.47% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -2.95% | +2.47% |
President Johnson maintained a large lead in the polls and won a full term in a landslide due to popular sympathy after theassassination of President Kennedy, a good economy, lack of severe foreign problems, and an effective campaign to portray Goldwater as a dangerous, out-of-touch extremist.[citation needed]
| Month | Richard Nixon (R) % | Hubert Humphrey[a] (D) % | George Wallace (American Independent) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43% | 34% | 9% |
| May | 39% | 36% | 14% |
| 36% | 42% | 14% | |
| June | 37% | 42% | 14% |
| July | 35% | 40% | 16% |
| 40% | 38% | 16% | |
| August | 45% | 29% | 18% |
| September | 43% | 31% | 19% |
| 43% | 28% | 21% | |
| 44% | 29% | 20% | |
| October | 44% | 36% | 15% |
| November | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Actual result | 43.42% | 42.72% | 13.53% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +0.42% | +0.72% | -1.47% |
Initially, President Johnson had been the early frontrunner for the Democratic Party's nomination. However, after he only narrowly won theNew Hampshire primary, he eventuallywithdrew form the race, and Vice PresidentHubert Humphrey was proclaimed the Democratic nominee. The campaign was always close according to the polls, but after the tumultuous1968 Democratic National Convention, former Vice PresidentRichard Nixon—the Republican candidate, established and maintained a lead. Former Governor of AlabamaGeorge Wallace—the American Independent candidate, ran in opposition to civil rights and in support of segregation and received considerable support in the South. Humphrey began catching up to Nixon in the polls late in the campaign, but ran out of time as Nixon won a narrow victory.[citation needed]
| Month | Richard Nixon(R) % | George McGovern (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| May | 53% | 34% |
| June | 53% | 37% |
| July | 56% | 37% |
| August | 57% | 31% |
| 64% | 30% | |
| September | 61% | 33% |
| October | 60% | 34% |
| 59% | 36% | |
| November | 62% | 38% |
| Actual result | 60.67% | 37.52% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -1.33% | -0.48% |
President Nixon was re-elected in a landslide, winning every state except Massachusetts after maintaining a large poll lead due to the economic recovery from the1969–1970 recession and his portrayal of SenatorGeorge McGovern—the Democratic candidate, as a foreign-policy lightweight and social radical ("amnesty, abortion, and acid"). McGovern was also hurt by his change of vice-presidential candidates in mid-campaign, raising questions about his judgement.[15]
| Month | Jimmy Carter (D) % | Gerald Ford (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 47% | 42% |
| 48% | 46% | |
| 48% | 46% | |
| April | 48% | 43% |
| May | 52% | 42% |
| 53% | 40% | |
| June | 55% | 37% |
| 53% | 36% | |
| July | 62% | 29% |
| August | 54% | 32% |
| 51% | 36% | |
| September | 51% | 40% |
| October | 47% | 45% |
| 47% | 41% | |
| 48% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 50.08% | 48.01% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.08% | -0.99% |
Former Governor of GeorgiaJimmy Carter—the Democratic candidate, opened up a large lead over President Ford due to dissatisfaction withWatergate, Ford's pardon of former presidentRichard Nixon and the sluggish economy. Ford closed the gap near the end of the campaign with good debate performances, among other things. He was hurt by his comment that there was no Soviet domination ofEastern Europe and ran out of time to close the polling gap with Carter, who won by a narrow margin.[citation needed]
| Month | Ronald Reagan (R) % | Jimmy Carter (D) % | John B. Anderson (I) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 1979/January 1980 | 33% | 62% | |
| February/March | 31% | 60% | |
| 33% | 58% | ||
| 34% | 40% | 21% | |
| April/May | 34% | 41% | 18% |
| 32% | 38% | 21% | |
| 32% | 40% | 21% | |
| June/July | 32% | 39% | 21% |
| 33% | 35% | 24% | |
| 37% | 32% | 22% | |
| 37% | 34% | 21% | |
| August/September | 45% | 29% | 14% |
| 38% | 39% | 13% | |
| 39% | 39% | 14% | |
| October/November | 40% | 44% | 9% |
| 39% | 45% | 9% | |
| 47% | 44% | 8% | |
| Actual result | 50.75% | 41.01% | 6.61% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +3.75% | -2.99% | -1.39% |
During primary season, President Carter held a steady lead over former Governor of CaliforniaRonald Reagan—the Republican front-runner, despite aprimary challenge from SenatorTed Kennedy. Reagan andGE spokesman, passed Carter in the polls after the primaries, winning over voters dissatisfied with Carter's handling of the economy, the energy crisis, and theIran hostage crisis. As the race neared its finish, Carter had apparently closed the gap with Reagan; some outlets gave him the lead. Reagan ran an upbeat campaign focused on fixing the economy and restoring America's image, diminished by Watergate and thewar in Vietnam. Carter was more negative, attacking Reagan's record on civil rights and social issues. Reagan defeated Carter in a blowout on election night, the third win for Republicans in the past four presidential races.[16]
| Month | Ronald Reagan (R) % | Walter Mondale (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| December 1983/January 1984 | 48% | 47% |
| 53% | 43% | |
| February/March | 52% | 42% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| 52% | 44% | |
| April/May | 54% | 41% |
| 52% | 44% | |
| 50% | 46% | |
| 53% | 43% | |
| June/July | 53% | 44% |
| 55% | 38% | |
| 51% | 43% | |
| 53% | 39% | |
| 53% | 41% | |
| August/September | 52% | 41% |
| 56% | 37% | |
| 58% | 37% | |
| 55% | 39% | |
| October/November | 58% | 38% |
| 56% | 39% | |
| 59% | 41% | |
| Actual result | 58.77% | 40.56% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -0.23% | -0.44% |
President Reagan had low approval ratings early in his first term,[17] but by 1983 the economy had improved enough to give him a boost for re-election. Former Vice PresidentWalter Mondale— the Democratic candidate, who advocated a nuclear freeze, theEqual Rights Amendment and a balanced budget. Mondale benefited from a strong first debate (where the 73-year-old Reagan seemed slow), but Reagan was re-elected in a landslide, winning every state except Minnesota. Reagan again cast himself as the candidate of optimism, taking credit for an improved economy and an increase in national pride after the social upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s. Mondale's unpopular proposal to raise taxes to reduce the deficit and association with the Carter administration's"malaise" largely doomed his campaign from the start.[18]
| Month | George H. W. Bush (R) % | Michael Dukakis (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 52% | 40% |
| April | 45% | 43% |
| May | 38% | 54% |
| June | 38% | 52% |
| 41% | 46% | |
| July | 41% | 47% |
| 37% | 54% | |
| August | 42% | 49% |
| September | 49% | 41% |
| 47% | 42% | |
| October | 50% | 40% |
| November | 56% | 44% |
| Actual result | 53.37% | 45.65% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -2.63% | +1.65% |
Although Governor of MassachusettsMichael Dukakis—the Democratic candidate, took a large lead in the initial polls, Vice PresidentGeorge H. W. Bush's campaign portrayed him as soft on crime and used the good economy, President Reagan's popularity and Bush'sno new taxes pledge to close the gap and eventually take a large lead. Bush easily won the general election.[citation needed]
| Month | Bill Clinton (D) % | George H. W. Bush (R) % | Ross Perot (I) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March | 25% | 44% | 24% |
| April | 26% | 41% | 25% |
| May | 29% | 35% | 30% |
| 25% | 35% | 35% | |
| June | 26% | 30% | 38% |
| 25% | 31% | 39% | |
| 24% | 24% | 37% | |
| 24% | 32% | 34% | |
| 27% | 33% | 32% | |
| July | 40% | 48% | Candidate withdrew from race |
| 56% | 34% | ||
| 56% | 36% | ||
| 57% | 32% | ||
| August | 56% | 37% | |
| 50% | 39% | ||
| 52% | 42% | ||
| September | 54% | 39% | |
| 51% | 42% | ||
| 50% | 40% | ||
| 54% | 38% | ||
| 51% | 35% | 8% | |
| October | 47% | 35% | 10% |
| 50% | 34% | 9% | |
| 51% | 33% | 10% | |
| 46% | 34% | 13% | |
| 47% | 34% | 14% | |
| 47% | 29% | 15% | |
| 44% | 32% | 17% | |
| 41% | 30% | 20% | |
| 42% | 31% | 19% | |
| 40% | 38% | 16% | |
| 41% | 40% | 14% | |
| 43% | 36% | 15% | |
| November | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Actual result | 43.01% | 37.45% | 18.91% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -5.99% | +0.45% | +4.91% |
The polls fluctuated during the spring and early summer, with President Bush and businessmanRoss Perot—the independent candidate, trading the lead. Perot withdrew from the race in July, however, and Governor of ArkansasBill Clinton—the Democratic candidate, took a consistent lead in the polls by blaming Bush for the poor economy and promising that he would fix it ("It's the economy, stupid"). Although Perot returned to the race in September, he could not regain his previous support and Clinton won the general election by a comfortable margin.[citation needed]
| Month | Bill Clinton (D) % | Bob Dole (R) % | Ross Perot (Reform) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 43% | 39% | 16% |
| February | |||
| March | 47% | 34% | 17% |
| April | 49% | 35% | 15% |
| May | 47% | 32% | 19% |
| 49% | 35% | 15% | |
| June | 49% | 33% | 17% |
| July | 50% | 33% | 12% |
| 50% | 35% | 10% | |
| August | 52% | 30% | 12% |
| 48% | 39% | 7% | |
| 50% | 38% | 7% | |
| 51% | 38% | 7% | |
| 55% | 34% | 6% | |
| September | 53% | 36% | 5% |
| 54% | 36% | 4% | |
| 55% | 34% | 5% | |
| 55% | 34% | 5% | |
| 55% | 32% | 6% | |
| 51% | 34% | 8% | |
| 50% | 36% | 6% | |
| 52% | 36% | 4% | |
| 53% | 34% | 6% | |
| 51% | 38% | 5% | |
| 49% | 39% | 6% | |
| 51% | 37% | 6% | |
| 57% | 32% | 5% | |
| October | 53% | 36% | 6% |
| 51% | 39% | 5% | |
| 55% | 35% | 5% | |
| 55% | 34% | 6% | |
| 51% | 38% | 5% | |
| 56% | 35% | 4% | |
| 48% | 39% | 5% | |
| 51% | 36% | 8% | |
| 54% | 35% | 6% | |
| 52% | 33% | 8% | |
| 53% | 34% | 6% | |
| 54% | 34% | 7% | |
| 49% | 37% | 7% | |
| 51% | 35% | 10% | |
| 50% | 37% | 7% | |
| November | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| Actual result | 49.24% | 40.71% | 8.40% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -2.76% | -0.29% | +1.40% |
President Clinton held a comfortable lead in the polls throughout the campaign due to the good economy, stable international situation, and tying former SenatorBob Dole—his Republican challenger toNewt Gingrich (the unpopular speaker of the House), easily won re-election.[citation needed]
| Month | George W. Bush (R) % | Al Gore (D) % | Ralph Nader (Green) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 47% | 41% | 4% |
| May | |||
| June | 46% | 41% | 6% |
| 50% | 38% | 6% | |
| July | 45% | 43% | 5% |
| 50% | 39% | 4% | |
| August | 54% | 37% | 4% |
| 55% | 39% | 2% | |
| 46% | 47% | 3% | |
| 46% | 45% | 3% | |
| September | 44% | 47% | 3% |
| 46% | 45% | 2% | |
| 42% | 49% | 3% | |
| 41% | 49% | 4% | |
| 42% | 49% | 2% | |
| 41% | 49% | 3% | |
| 44% | 48% | 2% | |
| 41% | 51% | 3% | |
| 42% | 50% | 2% | |
| 47% | 44% | 2% | |
| 46% | 44% | 2% | |
| 46% | 44% | 3% | |
| 45% | 45% | 4% | |
| October | 41% | 49% | 2% |
| 40% | 51% | 2% | |
| 48% | 41% | 4% | |
| 50% | 42% | 4% | |
| 45% | 45% | 2% | |
| 45% | 45% | 3% | |
| 48% | 43% | 2% | |
| 47% | 44% | 3% | |
| 51% | 40% | 4% | |
| 44% | 46% | 4% | |
| 49% | 42% | 3% | |
| 52% | 39% | 4% | |
| 49% | 42% | 3% | |
| 47% | 44% | 3% | |
| 47% | 43% | 4% | |
| November | 47% | 43% | 4% |
| 48% | 46% | 4% | |
| Actual result | 47.86% | 48.38% | 2.74% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -0.14% | +2.38% | -1.26% |
The election was close throughout the campaign; Vice PresidentAl Gore used the good economy to his advantage, but was hurt by being perceived as robotic and pompous. During later months, polls flip-flopped between him and Republican candidate Governor of TexasGeorge W. Bush, and Bush won a narrow victory in the electoral college, although polling was correct in predicting the winner of the popular vote.
| Month | George W. Bush (R) % | John Kerry (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 44% | 50% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| April | 47% | 43% |
| 50% | 44% | |
| May | 47% | 47% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 46% | 47% | |
| June | 43% | 49% |
| 48% | 47% | |
| July | 45% | 50% |
| 46% | 47% | |
| 51% | 45% | |
| August | 48% | 46% |
| 48% | 46% | |
| September | 52% | 45% |
| 52% | 44% | |
| October | 49% | 49% |
| 48% | 49% | |
| 52% | 44% | |
| 51% | 46% | |
| 49% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 50.73% | 48.27% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +1.73% | -0.73% |
The election was closely contested, as dissatisfaction with the Bush administration's handling of theIraq War and a sluggish economy helped SenatorJohn Kerry—his Democratic challenger. President Bush accused Kerry offlip-flopping, however,[19] and theSwift Boat Veterans for Truth accused Kerry of being unpatriotic. A week before the election,al-Qaeda released a video warning Americans not to re-elect Bush. Bush's poll ratings in swing states then gave him a comfortable lead, and he was re-elected.[4]
| Month | Barack Obama (D) % | John McCain (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 46% | 44% |
| 43% | 47% | |
| April | 46% | 43% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| May | 42% | 48% |
| 47% | 43% | |
| 44% | 47% | |
| June | 48% | 41% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| July | 48% | 42% |
| 45% | 44% | |
| 49% | 40% | |
| 44% | 44% | |
| August | 48% | 42% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| 50% | 42% | |
| September | 44% | 49% |
| 50% | 44% | |
| 46% | 46% | |
| October | 52% | 41% |
| 49% | 43% | |
| 52% | 42% | |
| 53% | 40% | |
| 53% | 42% | |
| Actual result | 52.93% | 45.65% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -0.07% | +3.65% |
The campaign was close during the spring and summer, with SenatorsBarack Obama—the Democratic candidate andJohn McCain—the Republican candidate, trading the lead. TheGreat Recession started in December 2007,[20] but Obama was initially hurt in the polls by former First Lady and SenatorHillary Clinton supporters.[21] The Republicans attacked him for being inexperienced,[22] and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after choosing Governor of AlaskaSarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate. The2008 financial crisis allowed Obama to open a consistent, comfortable lead in the polls at the beginning of October, however, and he won the election by a comfortable margin.[4]
| Month | Barack Obama (D) % | Mitt Romney (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| February | 48% | 44% |
| 49% | 43% | |
| 49% | 44% | |
| March | 47% | 45% |
| 48% | 44% | |
| April | 48% | 43% |
| 49% | 43% | |
| 47% | 44% | |
| 48% | 44% | |
| May | 47% | 44% |
| 46% | 46% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 46% | 44% | |
| June | 48% | 45% |
| 46% | 45% | |
| 47% | 44% | |
| July | 46% | 45% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 46% | 45% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| August | 48% | 44% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 47% | 46% | |
| September | 47% | 47% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| 48% | 45% | |
| 49% | 45% | |
| October | 49% | 46% |
| 47% | 48% | |
| 47% | 47% | |
| 47% | 48% | |
| November | 49% | 48% |
| Actual result | 51.06% | 47.20% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.06% | -0.80% |
President Obama and his campaign aired early negative ads criticizing former Governor of MassachusettsMitt Romney—his Republican challenger. While Romney regained some support, several gaffes in addition to Obama's embracement of popularly supported intitiatives such as same-sex marriage legalization maintained Obama's lead throughout most of the campaign. Polling correctly predicted Obama's victory, although he won by a larger margin than predicted for most of the race.
| Month | Donald Trump (R) % | Hillary Clinton (D) % | Gary Johnson(L) % | Jill Stein(G) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 36% | 41% | 7% | 4% |
| 37% | 42% | 8% | 5% | |
| July | 37% | 41% | 7% | 4% |
| 38% | 41% | 9% | 4% | |
| 40% | 40% | 7% | 3% | |
| August | 38% | 42% | 7% | 3% |
| 36% | 44% | 9% | 4% | |
| 37% | 44% | 9% | 3% | |
| 37% | 42% | 9% | 3% | |
| 38% | 42% | 8% | 3% | |
| September | 39% | 41% | 8% | 3% |
| 40% | 42% | 9% | 3% | |
| 40% | 41% | 8% | 3% | |
| 42% | 43% | 7% | 2% | |
| October | 41% | 44% | 7% | 3% |
| 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | |
| 39% | 46% | 7% | 2% | |
| 40% | 45% | 6% | 2% | |
| November | 43% | 45% | 5% | 2% |
| 42% | 46% | 5% | 2% | |
| Actual result | 46.09% | 48.18% | 3.28% | 1.13% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.09% | +2.18% | -1.72% | -0.87% |
BusinessmanDonald Trump—the Republican candidate and former First Lady, former Senator, and former Secretary of StateHillary Clinton—the Democratic candidate, were seen unfavorably by many pollsters and pundits, and it was predicted that Trump would lose by a large margin to Democratic opponent Clinton. While pollsters correctly predicted that Clinton would win the popular vote, both candidates outperformed polls, partially due to the overestimation of third-party results.[25]
| Month | Joe Biden (D) % | Donald Trump (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| February | 50% | 45% |
| 50% | 46% | |
| March | 50% | 44% |
| 51% | 44% | |
| 50% | 44% | |
| April | 47% | 42% |
| 48% | 42% | |
| May | 47% | 43% |
| 49% | 44% | |
| 48% | 42% | |
| June | 49% | 42% |
| 50% | 42% | |
| 51% | 41% | |
| 50% | 40% | |
| July | 50% | 41% |
| 49% | 40% | |
| 50% | 41% | |
| 51% | 42% | |
| August | 49% | 42% |
| 50% | 42% | |
| September | 49% | 43% |
| 50% | 43% | |
| 49% | 43% | |
| October | 51% | 42% |
| 52% | 42% | |
| 51% | 43% | |
| November | 51% | 44% |
| Actual result | 51.31% | 46.86% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +0.31% | +2.86% |
Former Vice PresidentJoe Biden led in most national polls throughout the race, but President Trump believed that polls were underestimating his results. Polls correctly predicted that Biden would win the popular vote, and correctly predicted his margin, but Trump's popular vote estimate was significantly underestimated due to his gains among low-propensity respondents.[27]
| Month | Donald Trump (R) % | Kamala Harris[b] (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| February | 46% | 44% |
| 45% | 44% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| March | 48% | 45% |
| 47% | 46% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| April | 47% | 46% |
| 46% | 46% | |
| 45% | 45% | |
| 45% | 44% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| May | 46% | 45% |
| 47% | 46% | |
| 48% | 46% | |
| June | 46% | 46% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| 46% | 45% | |
| July | 47% | 44% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 48% | 45% | |
| 48% | 46% | |
| August | 47% | 47% |
| 47% | 48% | |
| September | 46% | 48% |
| 47% | 48% | |
| 47% | 49% | |
| October | 48% | 49% |
| 49% | 49% | |
| 49% | 48% | |
| November | 49% | 49% |
| Actual result | 49.80% | 48.32% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +0.80% | -0.68% |
Former PresidentDonald Trump was leading President Biden in the polls since the beginning of the year, mainly due tohigh inflation andconcerns over Biden's age and health. Polls narrowed following Biden'swithdrawal from the race and Vice PresidentKamala Harris's replacement as the Democratic nominee, with the two candidates roughly tying in popular vote polls up until the election. While Trump won a dominant victory in the electoral college, the popular vote polls were mostly accurate.[29]
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