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APolish withdrawal from the European Union, orPolexit (aportmanteau of "Poland" and "exit"), is the name given to a hypothetical Polishwithdrawal from the European Union. The term was coined afterBrexit, the process ofBritain's withdrawal from the EU which took place between 2016 and 2020. Opinion polls held in the country, between 2016 and 2021, indicated majority support for continued membership of theEuropean Union (EU). A 2022 survey indicated that "[at] least eight-in-ten adults in Poland" believed that the EU "promotes peace, democratic values and prosperity".[1] The2023 Polish parliamentary election was won by a coalition of predominantly pro-EU parties.[2]
Poland joined theEuropean Union in 2004 through theTreaty of Accession 2003. At the time the EU included fifteen countries, mostly fromWestern,Northern andSouthern Europe (see theMaastricht Treaty); the Treaty of Accession 2003 would accept ten more, mostly fromCentral andEastern Europe, theBaltic States, and Mediterranean States.
In 2016, following continued political pressures from BritishEurosceptics,Britain conducted areferendum on withdrawal from the EU. After the referendum had narrowly favored withdrawal, international media started speculating about the prospects of a similar event taking place in Poland (a so-calledPolexit).[3][4][5][6][7]
In 2019, theSupreme Court of Poland warned that the judicial reform planned by the rulingLaw and Justice (PiS) party could result in Poland having to leave the EU, as it undermines theindependence of the judiciary and challenges the principle of theprimacy of EU law, which is a key condition for membership that Poland had signed up to in itsTreaty of Accession.[8]
On 22 November 2020,Do Rzeczy, a Polish weekly newspaper, published a front-page article called "Polexit: We have the right to talk about it".[7]
In September 2021,Ryszard Terlecki,Deputy Marshal of the Sejm and head of the Law and Justice parliamentary caucus, said that his party '[wanted] to remain in the EU and to have a cooperative relationship', but that the EU 'should be acceptable to us'. He added that if things were to go the way they were likely to go, they would have to search for a "drastic solution", further contending that the British left the EU because "the dictatorship of the Brussels bureaucracy did not suit them". This led to some people saying Terlecki had thus called for a Polexit.[9][10]
The government of Poland has been making controversial changes to the Polish judiciary, in particular as related to thePolish Constitutional Tribunal, theNational Council of the Judiciary, theSupreme Court as well as itsDisciplinary Chamber. These have attracted scrutiny from theEuropean Court of Justice, which has been issuing rulings attempting to stop these changes that it sees as undermining therule of law andjudicial independence.[11][12][13] The Tribunal's legitimacy is contested after multiple appointments of judges loyal to the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party were made, some of whichin controversial circumstances.[14][15]
In March 2021, Prime MinisterMateusz Morawiecki asked theConstitutional Tribunal whether thePolish constitution[a] is above EU regulations and EU court rulings and whether the European Court of Justice actedbeyond the powers granted by theEU treaties when controlling the judicial reforms in Poland, which the government insisted was the case.[16]
On 7 October 2021,Poland's Constitutional Tribunal ruled that some provisions ofEU treaties andEU court rulings clashed with theConstitution of Poland, asserting that EU institutions [were acting]beyond the scope of their competences; effectively rejecting the notion ofprimacy of EU law.[14][17]BBC News andForeign Policy reported that this risked Polexit,[17][18] while theFinancial Times called it "legal secession from the EU";[19] however,The Economist opined that Polexit is unlikely due to this court ruling, instead talking of a "dirty remain".[20]
In the2003 Polish referendum on joining the EU, 77.6% of voters voted in favor. Poland joined the EUthe following year, and since then–according to regular polls conducted by the governmentalCentre for Public Opinion Research (CBOS)–no more than a quarter of respondents ever supported leaving, with support gradually waning down to a mere 5% in 2019 and 6% in 2021.[21] For more results, see the table below.
| Date | Leave | Remain | Abstain[c] | Undecided | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2016[d][e] | 22% | – | – | – | Ipsos[22] |
| September 2016[f] | 8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | OKO.press / Ipsos[23] |
| January 2018[f] | 10% | N/A | N/A | N/A | OKO.press / Ipsos[24] |
| September 2018 | 11% | 83% | – | 3% | TVN /Kantar Millward Brown[25] |
| October 2018 | 8% | 84% | – | 8% | Rzeczpospolita /IBRiS [pl][26] |
| December 2018[f] | 8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | OKO.press / Ipsos[24] |
| February 2019 | 6.7% | 86.9% | 6.4% | – | OGB[27] |
| March 2019[e] | – | 87% | – | – | Globsec[28] |
| September 2019 | 13% | 75% | 5% | 7% | Kantar[29] |
| January 2020 | 6% | 89% | – | 5% | TVN /Kantar Media[30] |
| November 2020 | 8% | 87% | – | 5% | TVN / Kantar Media[31] |
| November 2020[f] | 7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | OKO.press / Ipsos[32] |
| November 2020[e] | 11% | 81.1% | – | 7.9% | Rzeczpospolita / IBRiS[33] |
| July 2021 | 16.9% | 62.6% | – | 20% | Rzeczpospolita / SWR[34] |
| September 2021 | 7% | 81% | – | 12% | TVN / Kantar Media[35] |
| September 2021 | – | 88% | – | – | Gazeta Wyborcza / OKO.press / Ipsos[36] |
| September 2021[e] | 16.2% | 64.5% | 7.2% | 12.1% | Rzeczpospolita / SWR[37] |
| October 2021[e] | 14.8% | 64.4% | 6.7% | 14.1% | Rzeczpospolita / SWR[38] |
| January 2026 | 22% | 69% | – | 9% | Super Express / Pollster[39] |
| January 2026 | 24.5% | 67.5% | 8.0% | – | OGB[27] |
However, there is some support for conducting a second referendum on EU membership: in an October 2021 poll conducted forRzeczpospolita, 42.6% of respondents were for, while 36.9% were against.[38]
In response to the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal earlier that month (mentionedabove), more than 100,000 Poles took part in a 10 October 2021 demonstrations in support of Poland's continued membership, including 80,000-100,000 protesters in Warsaw alone.[40]
Two 2025 polls, found support for leaving the EU at 25% and 24%, while 65% and 69% supported remaining.[41][42]
In general, Eurosceptic parties in Poland hold right-wing political views. For instance, theConfederation Liberty and Independence (Konfederacja) party has called for a withdrawal from the European Union on several occasions,[43][44] and its electorate is among the most Eurosceptic on the Polish political arena, with a quarter of voters for the party endorsing Polexit, according to a November 2020 poll.[32]PolEXIT [pl], which emerged on the base of theCongress of the New Right and is centered aroundStanisław Żółtek, a formerMEP from that party and candidate for2020 presidential election, is also arguing for secession from the European Union. It is not currently represented in either Polish or European parliament. In 2020, Żółtek received 0,23% of votes in the presidential elections.
Law and Justice (PiS) andKukiz'15 are alsoEurosceptic parties.[45][46] Critics, includingDonald Tusk (formerPresident of the European Council as well as leader of theCivic Platform), and currently thePrime Minister of Poland, warn that PiS' actions will eventually lead to Polexit and will jeopardise Poland's future in the EU,[40][47] thoughJarosław Kaczyński, its leader, and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki both dismissed the allegations that PiS is preparing for it as "fake news",[26][48][49][50] whilePaweł Kukiz said that "no Polexit would happen because there's no possibility for the EU to expel us".[51] Similar remarks were made byPrzemysław Czarnek, the formerminister of education.[52]
There are currently no left-wing, left-of-centre or centrist parties represented in parliament endorsing Polexit, and their electorate's support for withdrawal from the European Union is negligible.[32] The somewhat conservativePolish People's Party (PSL) andPoland 2050 are also known as a pro-European political organisations.
Tusk elected prime minister [..] after a national election was won by a coalition of pro-EU parties
Withdrawal from theEuropean Union | |
|---|---|
| Withdrawal of member state territories |
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| Withdrawal of member states | |
| Hypothesised | |
