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Opinion polling on Scottish independence

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Opinion polling onScottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns polls carried out since the2014 Scottish independence referendum, for whichopinion polls were also conducted. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of theBritish Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an independent country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might affect the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls includingBrexit,COVID-19 and party leadership changes.

Polls in the main table, using the same question, will show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.

Graphical summary

[edit]
Polling since Sep 2014
Polling Last 24 Months
Polling on Scottish Independence with undecidide removed = headline figures
Polling on Scottish Independence with undecidide removed = headline figures
Headline Figure Last 24 Months
Polling Company by Year

Polls using the 2014 referendum question

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeShould Scotland be an independent country?LeadNotes
YesNoUndecided
31 Oct – 5 Nov 2025YouGov1,01739% 41%20%2%
10–20 Oct 2025YouGov/Scottish Election Study1,24240% 43%16%3%[a][b]
1-8 Oct 2025Find Out Now/Alba Party1,16552%42%5%10%
22–25 Sep 2025Norstat/The Sunday Times1,01050%44%6%6%
15–21 Sep 2025Find Out Now/The National1,28248%45%7%3%
13–19 Jun 2025YouGov/Scottish Election Study1,17843% 47%10%4%[a][b]
12–18 June 2025Ipsos/STV News1,06646%43%10%3%
27–30 May 2025Norstat/The Sunday Times1,00750%43%6%7%
2–5 May 2025Survation/True North1,02043% 46%11%2%
16–22 Apr 2025Survation/Diffley Partnership1,00544% 46%9%2%
7–11 Apr 2025Find Out Now/The National1,11252%41%7%11%
17–21 Mar 2025YouGov1,04341% 50%9%9%[a][b]
6–11 Mar 2025YouGov1,01239% 50%11%11%[a][b]
15–20 Jan 2025Find Out Now/The Herald1,33450%46%5%5%[c]
11–14 Jan 2025Norstat/The Sunday Times1,01348%47%5%1%
17–24 Dec 2024Find Out Now/The National1,77450%45%5%5%[c]
4–6 Dec 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,01351%43%5%8%
1–15 Nov 2024Survation/Progress Scotland3,01644%47%9%3%
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,01347%47%6%Tied
16–23 Oct 2024Find Out Now/Alba Party1,05848%45%7%3%[c]
10–13 Sep 2024Survation/Progress Scotland2,05942%49%9%7%
8–13 Sep 2024More in Common/ Sunday Times94944%48%8%4%
5–11 Sep 2024Opinium/The Times1,02845%47%8%2%
29 Aug – 3 Sep 2024YouGov1,06340% 51%9%11%[a][b]
20–22 Aug 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,01145%48%7%3%
4 July 20242024 United Kingdom general election
26–27 Jun 2024Redfield and Wilton1,20046%48%6%2%
24–26 Jun 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,25847%47%6%Tied
21–26 Jun 2024Survation /Ballot Box Scotland1,02242%49%9%7%
20–25 Jun 2024YouGov1,05939%51%9%11%[a]
11–14 Jun 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,05046%48%6%2%
3–9 Jun 2024Ipsos1,15049%47%4%2%
3–7 Jun 2024YouGov1,06842%48%10%6%[a]
1–2 Jun 2024Redfield and Wilton1,00046%49%5%3%
24–28 May 2024Savanta/The Scotsman1,06744%48%8%4%
23–27 May 2024Survation/True North1,02641%49%10%8%
13–17 May 2024YouGov1,11441%49%10%8%[a]
8–9 May 2024Redfield and Wilton1,07844%48%8%4%
6–8 May 2024John Swinney becomes leader of theSNP and thenFirst Minister of Scotland
3–8 May 2024Savanta/The Scotsman1,08044%48%8%4%
30 Apr – 3 May 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,01445%49%6%4%
26–29 Apr 2024YouGov1,04342%48%10%6%[a]
9–12 Apr 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,08644%51%4%7%
6–7 Apr 2024Redfield and Wilton1,00044%42%14%2%
25 Apr – 2 May 2024YouGov1,10042%49%9%8%[a]
10–11 Mar 2024Redfield and Wilton1,00043%46%11%3%
3–4 Feb 2024Redfield and Wilton1,00043%47%10%4%
25–31 Jan 2024Ipsos1,00550%47%5%6%
23–25 Jan 2024Survation/True North1,02943%47%10%4%
22–25 Jan 2024Norstat/The Sunday Times1,00747%48%4%1%
11–24 Jan 2024Find Out Now84249%45%6%4%
9–11 Jan 2024Redfield & Wilton1,04046%47%7%1%
26–27 Nov 2023Redfield & Wilton1,05446%48%6%2%
20–26 Nov 2023Ipsos Scotland1,00051%43%5%8%
29–30 Oct 2023Redfield & Wilton1,09245%50%5%5%
20–25 Oct 2023YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop)1,24438%46%11%8%[d]
6–18 Oct 2023Focaldata/Scotland in Union1,03740%48%9%8%[e]
6–11 Oct 2023Savanta/The Scotsman1,00245%47%8%2%
2–5 Oct 2023Panelbase1,02245%49%6%4%
4–5 Oct 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,09546%48%6%2%
8–12 Sep 2023YouGov1,10342%48%10%5%[a]
5–14 Sep 2023Opinium/Tony Blair Institute1,00445%41%9%4%[c]
5–11 Sep 2023Find Out Now/Independent Voices1,40249%46%4%4%[c]
2–4 Sep 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,10044%49%6%5%
15–18 Aug 2023Survation1,00243%47%10%4%
3–8 Aug 2023YouGov1,08645%47%9%2%[a]
5–6 Aug 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,05045%48%7%3%
1–2 Jul 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,03045%49%6%4%
26–29 Jun 2023Yougov1,10040%50%10%10%[a]
23–28 Jun 2023Survation1,91542%47%10%5%
13–20 Jun 2023Find Out Now/Independent Voices1,03548%45%7%3%[c]
12–15 Jun 2023Panelbase/Sunday Times1,00744%50%6%6%
9–14 Jun 2023Savanta/The Scotsman1,01846%47%7%1%
9–13 Jun 2023YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop)1,24436%46%11%10%
7–12 Jun 2023Find Out Now/Alba Party55843%39%11%4%[f][g][c]
3–5 Jun 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,46643%50%7%7%
15–21 May 2023Ipsos/STV1,10051%45%4%6%
27 Apr – 3 May 2023Survation/True North1,00944%47%9%3%
30 Apr – 2 May 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,24442%52%6%10%
17–20 Apr 2023YouGov/ The Times1,03242%48%10%6%[a]
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023Survation1,00742%47%10%5%
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,00044%50%6%6%
28–31 Mar 2023Savanta/Scotsman1,00945%47%8%2%
28–30 Mar 2023Panelbase/ The Sunday TimesArchived 4 April 2023 at theWayback Machine1,08946%49%5%3%
27–29 Mar 2023Humza Yousaf becomes leader of theSNP and thenFirst Minister of Scotland
9–13 Mar 2023YouGov/Sky News1,00241%49%10%8%[a]
8–10 Mar 2023Survation/DC Thomson1,03740%48%12%8%[c]
7–10 Mar 2023Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop1,01345%49%5%4%
1–9 Mar 2023Find Out Now/Scot Goes Pop1,26650%46%4%4%
2–5 Mar 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies[1]1,05042%51%8%9%
22–23 Feb 2023TechneUK50239%47%14%8%[h][c]
17–20 Feb 2023YouGov/The Times1,01742%49%9%7%[a]
15–17 Feb 2023Savanta/The Scotsman1,00444%46%9%2%
15 Feb 2023Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign asFirst Minister of Scotland
10–15 Feb 2023YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop)1,23940%48%8%8%
1–7 Feb 2023Survation1,07044%45%11%1%
6–13 Feb 2023Panelbase/Believe in Scotland2,00644%48%8%4%
26 Jan – 3 Feb 2023Lord Ashcroft2,10537%48%12%11%[i]
23–26 Jan 2023YouGov/The Times1,08842%48%10%6%[a]
11–18 Jan 2023Find Out Now/The National1,09452%44%3%8%
17 Jan 2023 UK Government blocksGender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill by invokingSection 35 of theScotland Act 1998
10–12 Jan 2023Survation/TrueNorth1,00241%47%11%6%
16–21 Dec 2022Savanta/The Scotsman1,04844%46%9%2%
12–16 Dec 2022Panelbase/Sunday Times1,00449%45%6%4%
6–9 Dec 2022YouGov/The Times1,09047%42%8%5%
1–8 Dec 2022Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus1,09451%43%6%8%
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022Ipsos/STV1,06553%42%4%11%
26–27 Nov 2022Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,00049%45%5%4%
22–25 Nov 2022YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop)1,21043%42%8%1%
23 Nov 2022Supreme Court rules the Scottish Parliament requires consent of the UK Government to legislate a second independence referendum
25 Oct 2022Rishi Sunak becomesPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
20 Oct 2022Liz Truss announces herintention to resign asPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
13–19 Oct 2022Ipsos2,08650%43%4%7%[j]
7–10 Oct 2022Panelbase/Alba PartyArchived 17 October 2022 at theWayback Machine1,01846%49%5%3%
5–7 Oct 2022Panelbase/Business for ScotlandArchived 17 October 2022 at theWayback Machine1,01747%47%6%Tied
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022YouGov/The Times1,06743%45%7%2%
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,02945%46%8%1%
14–16 Sep 2022Deltapoll/Sun in Scotland65942%47%7%5%[k]

[c]

8 Sep 2022Elizabeth IIdies and is succeeded by her son,Charles III
6 Sep 2022Liz Truss becomesPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
17–19 Aug 2022Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 22 August 2022 at theWayback Machine1,13346%48%6%2%
7 July 2022Boris Johnson announces hisintention to resign asPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022Panelbase/Sunday Times1,01048%47%5%1%
29–30 Jun 2022Techne UK50139%45%15%6%[l][c]
28 Jun 2022Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to hold an independence referendum on 19 October 2023
23–28 Jun 2022Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,02944%46%10%2%
23–29 May 2022Ipsos/STV1,00045%46%8%1%
18–23 May 2022YouGov/The Times1,11538%46%11%8%
5 May 20222022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr–3 May 2022Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,01045%47%7%2%
26–29 Apr 2022Panelbase/Sunday Times1,00947%49%5%2%
25–31 Mar 2022BMG/Herald1,01243%49%8%6%
25–31 Mar 2022YouGov/TheseIslands51939%44%13%5%[m]
24–28 Mar 2022Survation/Ballot Box Scotland1,00242%47%11%5%
10–16 Mar 2022Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00844%49%7%5%
24–28 Feb 2022Savanta ComRes/The Economist[permanent dead link]1,65145%46%9%1%
24 Feb 20222022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
3–9 Feb 2022Ipsos1,16350%43%6%7%[n]
14–18 Jan 2022Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00446%46%8%Tied
15–22 Dec 2021Opinium/Daily Record1,32844%44%12%Tied[c]
22–29 Nov 2021Ipsos MORI/STV1,10752%43%4%9%
18–22 Nov 2021YouGov/The Times1,06040%46%14%6%
9–12 Nov 2021Panelbase/SundayTimes1,78145%47%8%2%
22–28 Oct 2021Savanta ComRes/Scotsman1,00545%48%7%3%
20–26 Oct 2021Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop[permanent dead link]1,00144%50%5%6%
18 Sep 2021Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Politico1,00044%47%9%3%
6–10 Sep 2021Panelbase/SundayTimesArchived 14 July 2022 at theWayback Machine2,00345%49%6%4%
3–9 Sep 2021Savanta ComRes Sunday TimesArchived 14 July 2022 at theWayback Machine1,01645%48%7%3%
1–8 Sep 2021Stack Data Strategy/UKonward1,00745%49%6%4%
3–8 Sep 2021Opinium/Sky News1,01444%43%13%1%
4–5 Aug 2021Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,00044%47%9%3%
16–24 Jun 2021Panelbase/Sunday Times1,28745%48%7%3%
11–14 May 2021Savanta ComRes/Scotland on Sunday1,00343%49%8%6%
7–8 May 2021Stack Data/Our Scottish Future1,00048%48%4%Tied[o]
6 May 20212021 Scottish Parliament election
30 Apr – 4 May 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00142%50%8%8%
2–4 May 2021YouGov/The Times1,14441%46%13%5%
30 Apr – 4 May 2021Survation/DC Thomson1,00843%47%10%4%
28 Apr – 3 May 2021Opinium/Sky News1,01545%45%8%Tied
30 Apr – 3 May 2021Ipsos MORI/STV1,50247%47%6%Tied
28–30 Apr 2021Panelbase/Sunday Times1,09648%45%6%3%
27–30 Apr 2021BMG/Herald1,02347%47%7%Tied
23–27 Apr 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00142%49%8%7%
23–26 Apr 2021Survation/Good Morning Britain1,00842%47%11%5%
21–26 Apr 2021Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop1,07547%48%6%1%
21–23 Apr 2021Survation/These Islands1,00644%46%10%2%
20–22 Apr 2021Survation/DC Thomson1,03744%45%11%1%
16–20 Apr 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00144%48%8%4%
16–20 Apr 2021YouGov/The Times1,20439%45%16%6%
7–19 Apr 2021Lord Ashcroft2,01744%45%11%1%[i]
9–12 Apr 2021Panelbase/Believe in Scotland1,00248%46%6%2%
2–7 Apr 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00745%45%9%Tied
1–6 Apr 2021Opinium/Sky News1,02347%45%6%2%
29 Mar – 4 Apr 2021Ipsos MORI/STV1,03849%45%6%4%
30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 8 April 2021 at theWayback Machine1,00948%47%5%1%
29–30 Mar 2021Survation/DC Thomson1,02145%44%11%1%
23–26 Mar 2021Find Out Now/Daily Express1,02248%44%8%4%
16–19 Mar 2021BMG/Herald1,02149%46%5%3%
11–18 Mar 2021Survation/DC Thomson2,04743%45%12%2%
11–16 Mar 2021Opinium/Sky News1,09645%43%8%2%
5–10 Mar 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00945%47%8%2%
5–9 Mar 2021Hanbury Strategy[permanent dead link]1,50250%43%8%6%
4–8 Mar 2021YouGov/The Times1,10041%43%14%2%
4–5 Mar 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,01543%46%10%3%[p]
3–5 Mar 2021Panelbase/Sunday Times1,01346%47%7%1%
26 Feb – 4 Mar 2021Savanta ComRes/Daily Express1,00443%45%12%2%
12 Feb – 1 Mar 2021Hanbury Strategy[permanent dead link]3,94652%41%7%11%
27 Feb 2021Anas Sarwar becomes leader ofScottish Labour
25–26 Feb 2021Survation/Daily Record1,01143%44%13%1%
18–22 Feb 2021Savanta ComRes/ITV News1,00848%44%8%4%
15–21 Feb 2021Ipsos MORI/STV1,03148%44%7%4%
4–9 Feb 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,00243%46%11%3%[q]
19–22 Jan 2021Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 28 January 2021 at theWayback Machine1,20649%44%7%5%
14 Jan 2021Richard Leonard resigns as leader ofScottish Labour
11–13 Jan 2021Survation/Scot Goes Pop1,02045%43%12%2%
8–13 Jan 2021Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,01647%43%10%4%[q]
31 Dec 2020Thepost-Brexit transition period ends
11–15 Dec 2020Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman1,01349%39%12%10%[q]
8 Dec 2020COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom commences
2–7 Dec 2020Survation1,01844%42%14%2%
20–26 Nov 2020Ipsos MORI/STV1,00651%41%8%10%
5–11 Nov 2020Panelbase/Scot Goes PopArchived 19 November 2020 at theWayback Machine1,02051%40%8%11%
6–10 Nov 2020YouGov1,08943%42%10%1%
28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020Survation1,07147%40%13%7%
2–9 Oct 2020Ipsos MORI/STV1,04552%39%9%13%
9 Oct 2020Savanta ComResArchived 28 September 2021 at theWayback Machine1,00347%42%11%5%
25 Sep – 5 Oct 2020Survation/Progress Scotland2,09349%42%9%7%[r]
17–21 Sep 2020JL Partners1,01651%40%7%11%[s]
2–7 Sep 2020Survation1,01846%40%13%6%
12–18 Aug 2020Panelbase/Business for ScotlandArchived 20 August 2020 at theWayback Machine1,01151%42%7%9%
6–13 Aug 2020Savanta ComRes1,00849%42%9%7%
6–10 Aug 2020YouGov/The Times1,14245%40%9%5%
5 Aug 2020Douglas Ross becomes leader of theScottish Conservatives
30 Jul 2020Jackson Carlaw resigns as leader of theScottish Conservatives
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 7 July 2020 at theWayback Machine1,02650%43%7%7%
15–19 Jun 2020Panelbase/Business for ScotlandArchived 1 July 2020 at theWayback Machine1,07050%43%7%7%
1–5 Jun 2020Panelbase/Scot Goes PopArchived 12 June 2020 at theWayback Machine1,02248%45%8%3%
1–5 May 2020Panelbase/Wings Over ScotlandArchived 13 November 2020 at theWayback Machine1,08646%46%7%Tied
24–26 Mar 2020Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 8 May 2020 at theWayback Machine1,02346%47%7%1%
1 March 2020COVID-19 pandemic confirmed to have spread to Scotland
14 Feb 2020Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of theScottish Conservatives
7–14 Feb 2020YouGov/Hanbury Strategy2,58745%46%8%1%[c][t]
31 Jan 2020TheUnited Kingdom leaves the European Union
28–31 Jan 2020Panelbase/Scot Goes PopArchived 28 February 2020 at theWayback Machine1,01649%46%6%3%
22–27 Jan 2020YouGov1,03943%42%10%1%
20–22 Jan 2020Survation/Progress Scotland1,01945%45%10%Tied
12 Dec 20192019 United Kingdom general election
10–11 Dec 2019Survation/The Courier1,01246%47%7%1%
3–6 Dec 2019Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 9 December 2019 at theWayback Machine1,02044%50%6%6%
3–6 Dec 2019YouGov/The Times1,00838%48%12%10%
19–25 Nov 2019Ipsos MORI/STV1,04648%48%4%Tied
20–22 Nov 2019Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 25 November 2019 at theWayback Machine1,00945%47%7%2%
9–11 Oct 2019Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 29 August 2022 at theWayback Machine1,00346%47%7%1%
30 Sep – 9 Oct 2019Survation/Progress Scotland2,03240%51%9%11%[u]
30 Aug – 3 Sep 2019YouGov/The Times1,05943%44%13%1%
29 Aug 2019Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of theScottish Conservatives
30 Jul – 2 Aug 2019Lord Ashcroft1,01946%43%12%3%[i][c]
24 Jul 2019Boris Johnson becomes theprime minister of the United Kingdom
18–20 Jun 2019Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 29 August 2022 at theWayback Machine1,02446%48%6%2%
24 May 2019Theresa May announces her resignation asPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 May 20192019 European Parliament election
14–17 May 2019Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 26 June 2019 at theWayback Machine1,02145%49%6%4%
24–26 Apr 2019YouGov/The Times1,02944%45%11%1%
18–24 Apr 2019Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 23 May 2019 at theWayback Machine1,01844%49%7%5%
15–21 Mar 2019Survation/Progress Scotland2,04135%56%8%21%[v]
30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 11 December 2018 at theWayback Machine1,02845%51%4%6%
2–7 Nov 2018Panelbase/Constitutional CommissionArchived 20 November 2018 at theWayback Machine1,05043%52%5%9%
18–21 Oct 2018Survation/Daily Record1,01741%51%7%10%
3–5 Oct 2018Survation/Scottish National Party1,01341%49%8%8%
28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 9 October 2018 at theWayback Machine1,02441%52%7%11%
28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018Survation/Sunday Post1,03643%49%8%6%
24–29 Aug 2018Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain1,02245%47%8%2%[w]
5–10 Jul 2018Survation/Daily Record1,00241%47%12%6%[c]
8–13 Jun 2018Panelbase/Sunday Times[permanent dead link]1,02141%53%6%12%
1–5 Jun 2018YouGov/The Times1,07541%50%6%9%
30 May – 5 Jun 2018YouGov/Future of England1,05241%47%12%6%[x][c]
23–28 Mar 2018Panelbase/Sunday Times1,03741%53%6%12%
5–11 Mar 2018Ipsos MORI/STV1,05046%50%4%4%[c]
24–28 Jan 2018Survation/Daily Record1,02942%50%8%8%
12–16 Jan 2018YouGov/The Times1,00237%50%10%13%[c]
1–5 Dec 2017Survation/Sunday Post1,00642%49%8%7%
27–30 Nov 2017Survation/Daily Record1,01742%48%10%6%
2–5 Oct 2017YouGov/The Times1,13539%50%7%11%[c]
8–12 Sep 2017Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,01642%49%9%7%
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2017Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 11 September 2017 at theWayback Machine1,02140%53%6%13%
9–13 Jun 2017Survation/Daily Record1,03739%53%7%14%
8 Jun 20172017 United Kingdom general election
6–7 Jun 2017Survation/Daily Record1,00136%56%7%20%
2–7 Jun 2017Panelbase/TheTimes1,10641%53%6%12%
1–5 Jun 2017YouGov/The Times1,09338%50%8%12%[c]
31 May – 2 Jun 2017Survation/Sunday Post1,02442%50%8%8%
22–27 May 2017Ipsos MORI/STV1,01645%51%3%6%[c]
15–18 May 2017YouGov/The Times1,03239%49%8%10%[c]
4 May 20172017 Scottish local elections
24–27 Apr 2017YouGov/The Times1,01740%49%8%9%[c]
18–21 Apr 2017Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 24 April 2017 at theWayback Machine1,02943%52%5%9%
18–21 Apr 2017Survation/Sunday Post1,01843%48%9%5%[c]
7–11 Apr 2017BMG/Herald1,04143%45%12%2%
29 Mar – 11 Apr 2017Kantar1,06037%55%8%18%
13–17 Mar 2017Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 20 March 2017 at theWayback Machine1,00842%53%5%11%
9–14 Mar 2017YouGov/The Times1,02837%48%11%11%[c]
8–13 Mar 2017Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,01943%48%9%5%
13 Mar 2017Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for aSection 30 order enabling an independence referendum
24 Feb – 6 Mar 2017Ipsos MORI/STV1,02947%46%6%1%
23–27 Feb 2017BMG/Herald1,00941%44%15%3%
7–13 Feb 2017Panelbase/Wings Over ScotlandArchived 18 February 2017 at theWayback Machine1,02844%51%6%7%
26–31 Jan 2017BMG/Herald1,06743%45%10%2%
20–26 Jan 2017Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 31 January 2017 at theWayback Machine1,02043%51%7%8%
9–16 Dec 2016BMG/Herald1,00240%47%13%7%
29 Aug – 16 Dec 2016YouGov3,16639%47%11%8%[c]
24–29 Nov 2016YouGov/The Times1,13438%49%13%11%
9–15 Sep 2016Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 2 October 2016 at theWayback Machine1,02444%50%7%6%
5–11 Sep 2016Ipsos MORI/STV1,00045%50%5%5%
5–10 Sep 2016Survation1,07342%48%10%6%
10 Aug – 4 Sep 2016TNS1,04741%47%12%6%
29–31 Aug 2016YouGov/The Times1,03940%46%13%6%[c]
20–25 Jul 2016YouGov1,00540%45%14%5%[c]
13 Jul 2016Theresa May becomes theprime minister of the United Kingdom
24–28 Jun 2016Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,05547%41%12%6%
25–26 Jun 2016Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 3 August 2016 at theWayback Machine62647%44%8%3%[y]
25 Jun 2016Survation/Daily Record1,00248%41%9%7%
24 Jun 2016David Cameron announces his resignation asPrime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 Jun 20162016 EU membership referendum
5 May 20162016 Scottish Parliament election
2–4 May 2016YouGov/The Times1,44541%48%12%7%
23–28 Apr 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times1,07444%49%6%5%
15–20 Apr 2016Survation/Daily Record1,00544%47%9%3%
6–15 Apr 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times1,02145%51%5%6%
7–11 Apr 2016YouGov/The Times1,01241%49%10%8%
10–17 Mar 2016Survation/Daily Record1,05144%47%9%3%
7–9 Mar 2016YouGov/The Times1,07040%47%12%7%
25–29 Feb 2016Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,02244%49%7%5%
11–16 Feb 2016Survation/Daily Record1,00642%48%9%6%
1–7 Feb 2016Ipsos MORI/STV1,00049%45%5%4%
1–4 Feb 2016YouGov/The Times1,02243%51%7%8%
8–14 Jan 2016Panelbase/Sunday TimesArchived 19 May 2016 at theWayback Machine1,05344%50%7%6%
8–12 Jan 2016Survation/Daily Record1,02945%47%8%2%
6–13 Nov 2015Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland1,07447%49%5%2%
9–13 Oct 2015YouGov/The Times1,02645%49%6%4%
7–10 Sep 2015Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,01045%46%9%1%
7–10 Sep 2015YouGov/The Times1,11045%49%6%4%
4–10 Sep 2015Panelbase/Sunday Times1,00545%51%3%6%
12 Aug – 1 Sep 2015TNS1,02347%42%11%5%
24–30 Aug 2015Ipsos MORI/STV1,00253%44%3%9%
3–7 Jul 2015Survation/Scottish Daily Mail1,08443%47%10%4%
26 Jun – 3 Jul 2015Panelbase/SundayTimes1,00245%50%5%5%
19–21 May 2015YouGov/Sunday Post1,10844%49%7%5%
7 May 20152015 United Kingdom general election.
3–6 May 2015Survation/Daily Record1,66044%47%9%3%
29 Apr – 1 May 2015YouGov/Sunday Times1,16243%49%8%6%
22–27 Apr 2015Survation/Daily Record1,01546%47%7%1%
20–23 Apr 2015Panelbase/Sunday Times1,04445%48%7%3%
8–9 Apr 2015YouGov/The Times1,05646%49%6%3%
13–19 Mar 2015ICM/Guardian1,00241%48%11%7%
12–17 Mar 2015Survation/Daily Record1,02745%43%11%2%
10–12 Mar 2015YouGov/The Times1,04945%48%8%3%
12–17 Feb 2015Survation/Daily Record1,01143%47%10%4%
29 Jan – 2 Feb 2015YouGov/The Times1,00149%44%7%5%
9–11 Dec 2014Survation/Daily Record1,00148%48%4%Tied
9–11 Dec 2014YouGov/The Sun1,08148%45%6%3%
27 Nov 2014Release ofSmith Commission report.
19 Nov 2014Nicola Sturgeon becomesFirst Minister of Scotland.
6–13 Nov 2014Survation/Daily Record1,00144%49%7%5%
30 Oct – 5 Nov 2014Panelbase/Wings Over ScotlandArchived 19 May 2016 at theWayback Machine98246%45%8%1%
27–30 Oct 2014YouGov/The Times1,07849%45%6%4%
18 September 20142014 Scottish independence referendum results3,623,34444.7%55.3%—10.6%

Other polling formats

[edit]

Polls using Remain / Leave Question

[edit]

Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.

The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leaderKeith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence withBrexit".[2][3]

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeShould Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?LeadNotes
LeaveRemainUndecided
4–16 Sep 2025Survation/Scotland in Union2,05135%54%11%19%
27–29 Aug 2024Survation/Scotland in Union1,02137%54%8%17%
6–18 Oct 2023Focaldata/These Islands1,03733%55%13%22%
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023Survation/Scotland in UnionArchived 10 January 2023 at theWayback Machine1,02537%54%9%17%
28–29 Sep 2022Survation/Scotland in Union1,01136%51%13%15%
29 Apr – 3 May 2022Survation/Scotland in Union1,05038%52%11%14%
25–31 Mar 2022YouGov/These Islands51035%50%9%15%[z]
18–22 Nov 2021Survation/Scotland in Union1,04538%54%8%16%
31 Aug – 1 Sep 2021Survation/Scotland in Union1,04039%52%9%13%
9–12 Mar 2021Survation/Scotland in Union1,01137%49%10%12%
10–12 Sep 2020Survation/Scotland in Union1,00837%47%11%10%
12–16 Sep 2019Survation/Scotland in Union1,00338%55%9%17%
18–23 Apr 2019Survation/Scotland in Union1,01236%56%7%20%
9–13 Nov 2018Survation/Scotland in Union1,01336%55%9%19%
28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016BMG/Herald1,01039%47%15%8%
18 September 20142014 Scottish independence referendum results3,623,34444.7%55.3%10.6%

Polls on a "de facto" referendum

[edit]

On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[4] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the2024 United Kingdom general election as ade facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeSNPGrnLabConLibOtherUndecidedLead (overall lead)Notes
15–17 Feb 2023Savanta/The Scotsman1,00436%—29%17%5%2%10%15%[aa]
11–18 Jan 2023FindOutNow/The National1,09452%2%23%12%7%4%—12%[ab]
10–12 Jan 2023Survation/True North1,00238%—22%16%6%2%11%6%[ac]
16–21 Dec 2022Savanta/Scotsman1,04837%—27%18%5%2%10%13%[ad]
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022Ipsos MORI/STV1,06553%2%24%13%6%2%—12%[ae]
Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedLeadNotes
23 Nov 2022Find Out Now/Channel 4 News1,00650%33%16%17%[af]

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey

[edit]

Since devolution, the annualScottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.

Respondents are askedWhich of these statements comes closest to your view?

  1. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
  2. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
  3. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
  4. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
  5. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.

A report released in 2017, entitledFrom Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".

YearPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolutionNo Parliament
2023Scottish Social Attitudes Survey48%41%9%
2021Scottish Social Attitudes Survey52%38%8%
2019Scottish Social Attitudes Survey51%36%7%
2017Scottish Social Attitudes Survey45%41%8%
2016Scottish Social Attitudes Survey46%42%8%
2015Scottish Social Attitudes Survey39%49%6%
2014Scottish Social Attitudes Survey33%50%7%
2013Scottish Social Attitudes Survey29%55%9%
2012Scottish Social Attitudes Survey23%61%11%
2011Scottish Social Attitudes Survey32%58%6%
2010Scottish Social Attitudes Survey23%61%10%
2009Scottish Social Attitudes Survey28%56%8%
2007Scottish Social Attitudes Survey24%62%9%
2006Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%54%14%
2005Scottish Social Attitudes Survey35%44%14%
2004Scottish Social Attitudes Survey32%45%17%
2003Scottish Social Attitudes Survey26%56%13%
2002Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%52%13%
2001Scottish Social Attitudes Survey27%59%9%
2000Scottish Social Attitudes Survey30%55%12%
1999Scottish Social Attitudes Survey27%59%10%

Issues around a second independence referendum

[edit]

Timing of a second referendum

[edit]

Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be asecond referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic

Date(s) conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizePollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below.LeadNotes
In 2023Next 12 MonthsNext 2 YearsIn the next 2–5 yearsMore than 5 YearsNo Referendum
YesNoD/KYesNoD/KYesNoD/KYesNoD/KYesNoD/K
8 - 13 Sep 2023YouGov1,10327%62%11%45%43%12%[ag]
2 - 4 Sep 2023Redfield & Wilton Strategies1,10042%42%12%42%40%14%
5 - 6 Aug 2023Redfield & Wilton1,05041%40%15%44%39%13%
1 - 2 Jul 2023Redfield & Wilton1,03041%40%12%41%38%14%
26 - 29 Jun 2023YouGov1,10045%42%13%[ah]
3 - 5 Jun 2023Redfield & Wilton1,46642%40%13%42%39%15%
30 Apr- 2 May 2023Redfield & Wilton129537%47%11%39%42%14%
17-20 Apr 2023YouGov/The Times1,03220%69%12%44%42%14%
31 Mar-1 Apr 2023Redfield & Wilton1,00841%44%15%43%41%16%
2-5 Mar 2023Redfield & Wilton1,05034%49%18%37%44%20%
17–20 Feb 2023YouGov/The Times1,01722%68%10%45%44%11%
23-26 Jan 2023YouGov/Sunday Times1,08828%62%10%47%42%10%
26-27 Nov 2022Redfield & Wilton1,00046%43%11%46%40%14%
18–23 May 2022YouGov/The Times1,11527%60%13%21%68%11%46%41%13%
26–29 Apr 2022Panelbase/SundayTimes1,00924%31%45%10%
29–31 Mar 2022YouGov/These Islands1.02936%53%12%17%
18-22 Nov 2021YouGov/Times1,06034%50%16%28%55%17%44%41%15%
9-12 Nov 2021Panelbase/Sunday Times1,78119%34%46%7%
22–28 Oct 2021Savanta ComRes/Scotsman1,00514%17%17%23%23%48%[ai]
18 Sep 2021Redfield & Wilton1,00034%50%16%41%42%17%
6-10 Sept 2021Panelbase/SundayTimesArchived 14 July 2022 at theWayback Machine2,00317%36%47%6%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021Survation/Scotland in Union1,04038%52%9%14%
4-5 Aug 2021Redfield & Wilton1,00040%47%13%42%40%17%
16-24 June 2021Panelbase/SundayTimes1,28719%35%46%8%
28-30 April 2021Panelbase/SundayTimes1,09622%33%45%10%
30 Mar-1 April 2021Panelbase/SundayTimes1,00925%29%46%7%
3-5 March 2021Panelbase/SundayTimes1,01325%30%45%10%

Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeShould the Scottish Government, need to get permission from the UK Government to run a referendum on Scottish independence?Notes
ShouldShould NotUndecided
26-29 Jun 2023YouGov1,10040%50%10%
17-20 Apr 2023YouGov1.03239%51%10%
17-20 Feb 2023YouGov1,01740%51%9%

UK-wide polling

[edit]

Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.

Polls using 2014 referendum question

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeShould Scotland be an independent country?LeadNotes
YesNoUndecided
22–23 Feb 2023TechneUK1,6339%71%20%62%
19-21 Jan 2023DeltaPoll/Mail on Sunday1,56325%40%15%15%
29-30 June 2022Techne1,61410%69%21%59%
18 Jun–2 Jul 2021Panelbase/The Sunday Times3,89117%54%29%37%

On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeShould the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?LeadNotes
YesNoUndecided/Dont Know
29–2 Dec 2022Omnisis/Byline Times1,18942%35%23%7%[aj]

Polling on a second referendum

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample sizeShould there be a Referendum on Scottish Independence?LeadNotes
YesNoUndecided/Dont Know
19-21 Jan 2023Deltapoll/Mail On Sunday1,56329%48%28%19%[ak]

Timing of a Second Independence Referendum

Date(s) conductedPolling organisation/clientSample sizePollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below.No ReferendumLeadNotes
In 2023Next 12 MonthsNext 2 YearsIn the next 2–5 yearsMore than 5 Years
YesNoD/KYesNoD/KYesNoD/KYesNoD/KYesNoD/K
18/6 - 2/7/21Panelbase/The Sunday Times389118%27%55%

British Social Attitudes Survey

[edit]
YearPolling organisation/clientIndependenceDevolutionNo Parliament
2021British Social Attitudes Survey25%54%15%
2020British Social Attitudes Survey24%54%14%
2017British Social Attitudes Survey22%55%15%
2015British Social Attitudes Survey23%49%20%
2013British Social Attitudes Survey20%49%18%
2012British Social Attitudes Survey25%43%23%
2011British Social Attitudes Survey26%44%19%
2007British Social Attitudes Survey19%48%18%
2003British Social Attitudes Survey17%58%13%
2002British Social Attitudes Survey19%52%15%
2001British Social Attitudes Survey19%60%11%
2000British Social Attitudes Survey19%52%17%
1999British Social Attitudes Survey21%57%14%
1997British Election Study14%55%23%

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghijklmnopqFigures manually adjusted to remove 'Refused' & 'Would not Vote'.
  2. ^abcdeThis poll does not weigh for likelihood to vote
  3. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzaaabExcludes 16 & 17 year olds.
  4. ^Yougov advise that this series of polls should not be compared to its usual polling,https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45269-nicola-sturgeons-legacy-according-scots
  5. ^Unusually this poll asked the Indy Q twice in the same poll, of samples of just over 500 each and then merged them together, questions should be borne in mind as to the margin of error for what is essentially 2 smaller polls
  6. ^Findoutnow stated "This was not a standard indyref voting intention poll so was not adjusted for turnout likelihood. That's why undecideds are up, and others down"https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1668263765937102849
  7. ^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  8. ^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  9. ^abcLord Ashcroft is not a member of theBritish Polling Council
  10. ^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  11. ^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  12. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  13. ^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  14. ^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  15. ^Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded.
  16. ^The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".
  17. ^abcSavanta ComResrevised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
  18. ^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  19. ^JL Partners was not a member of theBritish Polling Council at the time of this poll
  20. ^Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
  21. ^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  22. ^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  23. ^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
  24. ^Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
  25. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  26. ^As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  27. ^Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  28. ^Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a "de facto" referendum on independence. Which party will you vote for?
  29. ^Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?"
  30. ^Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  31. ^Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement.In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the 2024 UK general election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence.In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election?/Which party are you most inclined to support?"
  32. ^Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?"
  33. ^The question asked was whether there should be a referendum in 2024
  34. ^The poll also asked whether there should be a referendum 'Soon after the next general election', to which the response was: Yes 35%, No 52%, Don't Know 13%
  35. ^Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years
  36. ^ Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?"
  37. ^ Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should orshould not be a referendum on Scottishindependence?"

References

[edit]
  1. ^Strategies, Redfield & Wilton (4 April 2023)."Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (31 March - 1 April 2023)".Redfield & Wilton Strategies. Retrieved16 April 2023.
  2. ^Scott Macnab (17 September 2019)."Scottish Independence: Poll - majority of Scots will vote "remain in the UK"".The Scotsman. Retrieved29 September 2025.
  3. ^Simon Johnson (17 September 2019)."Independence referendum fifth anniversary poll shows six out of 10 Scots want to remain in UK".The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved29 September 2025.
  4. ^"Cases - UK Supreme Court"(PDF).www.supremecourt.uk. Retrieved16 May 2025.

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