In thepolitics of the United States, anOctober surprise is a news event that may influence the outcome of an upcoming November election (particularly one for thepresidency), whether deliberately planned or spontaneously occurring. Becausethe date for national elections (as well as many state and local elections) is in early November, events that take place in October have greater potential to influence the decisions of prospective voters and allow less time to take remedial action; thus, relatively last-minute news stories could either change the course of an election or reinforce the inevitable.[1]
The term "October surprise" was coined byWilliam Casey when he served ascampaign manager ofRonald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign;[2] however, there were October election-upending events that predated the coining of the term.[1][2]
In mid-October 1840, shortly before the1840 presidential election, federal prosecutors announced plans to charge topWhig Party officials with "most stupendous and atrocious fraud" for paying Pennsylvanians to cross state lines and vote for Whig candidates in New York during the1838 elections.[3]
In 1844, anabolitionist newspaper published an article, purportedly based on a book titledRoorback's Tour Through the Southern and Western States in the Year 1836, implying thatJames K. Polk had his slavesbranded.[4] For some decades afterward, a practice similar to the modern "October surprise", in which the occurrence turned out to be untrue, was called "roorbacking" or "roorbaching".[5]
On October 20, 1880, shortly before the1880 presidential election, aforged letter was published purportedly written byJames A. Garfield voicing support forChinese immigration to the United States. At the time, most white Americans opposed Chinese immigration and both presidential candidates were in favor of immigration restrictions.[3]
In the week leading up to the1884 presidential election, Republican nomineeJames G. Blaine attended a meeting in which Presbyterian preacherSamuel D. Burchard claimed that the Democrats were the party of "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion". Blaine's failure to object to Burchard's message cost him support from anti-prohibitionists, Roman Catholic immigrants, and southerners, playing a role in his narrow loss to Democratic candidateGrover Cleveland.[3]
Two weeks before the1888 presidential election, the Republicans published aletter byLionel Sackville-West, theBritish ambassador to the United States. In the letter, Sackville-West suggested that Democratic presidential candidate Grover Cleveland was preferred as president from the British point of view.[6] The letter had a galvanizing effect onIrish-American voters exactly comparable to the "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion" blunder of the previous presidential election[7] by trumpeting Great Britain's support for the Democrats. That drove Irish-American voters into the Republican fold, and Cleveland lost the presidency to Republican candidateBenjamin Harrison.
In the weeks leading up to the1920 presidential election, rumors circulated thatWarren G. Harding was of African-American descent. Harding's campaign feared that the rumor would affect his popularity amongst white southerners and so his campaign made it a point to prove Harding's whiteness.[8][3]
Less than a month before the1940 presidential election, President Roosevelt's press secretaryStephen Early kneed a black police officer in the groin outsideMadison Square Garden. Roosevelt had already been facing skepticism from black voters because of his failure to desegregate the military. Roosevelt responded days before the election by appointing the nation's first black general,Benjamin O. Davis Sr., and announcing the creation of theTuskegee Airmen.[3]
TheSuez Crisis andHungarian Revolution have both been described as October surprises during the1956 presidential election.[9]
On October 7, 1964, just under a month before the1964 presidential election, one of President Johnson's top aides,Walter Jenkins, was arrested for disorderly conduct with another man (homosexual activity) at the Washington D.C.YMCA, a place described by theToledo Blade as "so notorious a gathering place of homosexuals that the District police had long since staked it out with peepholes for surveillance".[3]
During the1968 presidential election,Hubert Humphrey—who was rising sharply in the polls due to the collapse of theGeorge Wallace vote—began to distance himself publicly from theJohnson administration on theVietnam War, calling for a bombing halt. The key turning point for Humphrey's campaign came when President Johnson officially announced a bombing halt, and even a possible peace deal, the weekend before the election. The "Halloween Peace" gave Humphrey's campaign a badly needed boost. In addition, SenatorEugene McCarthy finally endorsed Humphrey in late October after previously refusing to do so, and by election day the polls were reporting a dead heat.[10] However, Nixon won the election in a close race.
During the1972 presidential election between the Republican incumbentRichard Nixon and the Democratic nomineeGeorge McGovern, the United States was in the fourth year of negotiations to end the lengthy and domestically divisiveVietnam War. On October 26, 1972, twelve days before the election on November 7, the United States' chief negotiator and presidential National Security AdvisorHenry Kissinger appeared at a press conference held at theWhite House and announced "We believe that peace is at hand."[11] Nixon, despite having vowed to end the war during his presidential election campaign four years earlier, had failed to cease hostilities but had withdrawn all American ground combat units and most other American military personnel. While Nixon was nevertheless already widely considered to be assured of re-election, Kissinger's "peace is at hand" declaration increased Nixon's already high standing with the electorate: in the event, Nixon defeated McGovern in every state except Massachusetts and won by 23.2 points in the nationwide popular vote, which was the largest margin since 1936. Remaining U.S. military personnel were withdrawn in 1973, but U.S. involvement in Vietnam continued until 1975.[12]
In the1980 presidential election, Republican challengerRonald Reagan feared that a last-minute deal to releaseAmerican hostages held in Iran might earn incumbentJimmy Carter enough votes to win re-election.[13][14] As it happened, in the days prior to the election, press coverage was consumed with the Iranian government's decision—and Carter's simultaneous announcement—that the hostages would not be released until after the election.[14]
William Casey, the manager of the Reagan campaign, was the first person to mention the idea of an "October surprise" to the press.[15]: 10 On the morning of July 17, he told the press at theRepublican convention that he was concerned that Carter would use the advantage of incumbency to spring an event that would benefit him politically.[16] Casey mentioned that Carter had done this during the Wisconsin primary—in reference to Carter's announcement on election morning that he had "good news" concerning the hostages.[16] Casey mentioned to the press that he was setting up an "intelligence operation" to monitor Carter's political activities to keep abreast of such a possibility.[15]: 10
The intelligence operation the Reagan campaign set up was extensive.[17] It used military contacts at key air force bases to keep track of military flight movement which could be used to gauge government action concerning the hostages.[15]: 10 The operation had also compiled a list of the embargoed military equipment that the U.S. government had of the Iranians that Carter could use to barter in exchange for the release of the hostages.[15]: 11 To keep abreast of international information concerning the hostages, the Reagan campaign tapped former Secretary of StateHenry Kissinger and his extensive network of international contacts.[15]: 9
The Reagan campaign's ominous warnings of a possible October surprise to the press was done for strategic reasons. It was intended to prepare the voters, so that if some good October news happened, the voters would look at the event as a political ploy by the Carter campaign to win the election.[15]: 8 Personal papers left byJoseph V. Reed Jr. indicate that the "team" aroundDavid Rockefeller, the chairman ofChase Bank, "collaborated closely with the Reagan campaign in its efforts to pre-empt and discourage what it derisively labeled an 'October surprise'—a pre-election release of the American hostages, the papers show. The Chase team helped the Reagan campaign gather and spread rumors about possible payoffs to win the release, a propaganda effort that Carter administration officials have said impeded talks to free the captives." Rockefeller, a lifelongRepublican, assisted the Reagan campaign because he had a negative view on Carter's dovish foreign policy, and also because Chase Bank's balance sheet held $360 million (equivalent to $1.15 billion in 2024)[18] in loans to Iran and more than $500 million (equivalent to $1.59 billion in 2024)[18] in frozen Iranian deposits.[19]
Jack Anderson wrote an article inThe Washington Post in the fall of 1980 about a possible October surprise, in which he alleged that the Carter administration was preparing a major military operation inIran for rescuing U.S. hostages in order to help him get re-elected. Subsequent allegations surfaced against Reagan alleging that his team had actively impeded the hostage release.[20]
After the release of the hostages on January 20, 1981, minutes after Reagan's inauguration, some charged that the Reagan campaign had made a secret deal with the Iranian government whereby the Iranians would hold the hostages until after Reagan was elected and inaugurated.[14]Gary Sick, member of theU.S. National Security Council under Presidents Ford and Carter (before being relieved of his duties weeks into Reagan's term),[21] made the accusation in aNew York Times editorial[22] in the run-up to the 1992 election. The initial bipartisan response from Congress was skeptical: House Democrats refused to authorize an inquiry, and Senate Republicans denied a $600,000 appropriation for a probe. Eight former hostages also sent an open letter demanding an inquiry in 1991.[22] In subsequent Congressional testimony, Sick said that the popular media had distorted and misrepresented the accusers, reducing them to "gross generalizations" and "generic conspiracy theorists". Sick penned a book on the subject and sold the film rights to it for a reported $300,000.[23] His sources and thesis were contested by a number of commentators on both sides of the aisle.[24][25]
Abolhassan Banisadr, the former President of Iran, has also stated "that the Reagan campaign struck a deal with Tehran to delay the release of the hostages in 1980", asserting that "by the month before the American Presidential election in November 1980, many in Iran's ruling circles were openly discussing the fact that a deal had been made between the Reagan campaign team and some Iranian religious leaders in which the hostages' release would be delayed until after the election so as to prevent President Carter's re-election."[26] He repeated the charge inMy Turn to Speak: Iran, the Revolution & Secret Deals with the U.S.[27] FormerLieutenant Governor of TexasBen Barnes asserts that during the 1980 election campaign, he accompanied Connally on a trip through several Middle Eastern capitals, during which Connally consistently conveyed to regional leaders that they should inform the Iranian government that Iran should wait to releaseAmerican hostages until after the election.[28] Upon their return to the U.S., Barnes claims that Connally briefed Casey on their trip in anairport lounge.[28]
Four people identified by Barnes confirmed to a reporter forThe New York Times that Barnes had conveyed these incidents to them in the years before Barnes went public with his story:Mark K. Updegrove, former director of theLyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum; Tom Johnson, one of LBJ's aides; Larry Temple, one of Connally's and Johnson's aides; andH.W. Brands, an historian at theUniversity of Texas.[28] Moreover, Brands wrote about Barnes's story in his 2015 biography of Reagan, although the account went largely unnoticed at the time; however,The New York Times also observed that "Confirming Mr. Barnes's account is problematic" and the fact that John Connally III said he was with his father when he briefed Reagan about the trip, and nothing on this subject was discussed.[28]
Barbara Honegger, a 1980 Reagan–Bush campaign staffer and later a Reagan White House policy analyst, claims to have discovered information that made her believe thatGeorge H. W. Bush andWilliam Casey had conspired to assure that Iran would not free the U.S. hostages until Jimmy Carter had been defeated in the 1980 presidential election, and she alleges that arms sales to Iran were a part of that bargain.[29][30] Two separate congressional investigations looked into the charges, both concluding that there was no plan to seek to delay the hostages' release.[14]
In June 1992, Ronald Reagan's Secretary of DefenseCaspar Weinberger was indicted in theIran–Contra affair.[31][32][33] Although he claims to have been opposed to the sale on principle, Weinberger participated in the transfer of United StatesTOW missiles toIran that were used to stop Saddam Hussein's massive tank army, and was later indicted on severalfelony charges of lying to the Iran-Contra independent counsel during its investigation. Republicans angrily accusedIndependent CounselLawrence E. Walsh of timing Weinberger's indictment to hurtGeorge H. W. Bush's re-election chances. Throughout the campaign as Weinberger's trial approached, more concrete information on Bush's direct role emerged, including statements by Reagan Middle East specialist Howard Teicher that Bush knew of the arms deal in spring 1986 and an Israeli memo that made it clear that Bush was well versed in the deal by July 1986.[34][35]
Days before the November 7 election,Thomas J. Connolly ofScarborough, Maine, a prominent defense attorney and 1998 Democratic candidate for governor, confirmed to a reporter thatRepublican presidential candidateGeorge W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in that state in 1976. Bush confirmed the report in a press conference moments after it was revealed.[36][33]
On October 2, 2003, theLos Angeles Times released a story aboutArnold Schwarzenegger and subsequent allegations that he was a womanizer guilty of multiple acts of sexual misconduct in past decades. The story was released just before the 2003 California recall (which was scheduled for October 7), prompting many pundits to charge that the timing of the story was aimed specifically at derailing the recall campaign.[37] It was not the only embarrassing story about Schwarzenegger to surface just days before the campaign: the next day,ABC News andThe New York Times reported that in 1975 Schwarzenegger had praisedAdolf Hitler during interviews for the filmPumping Iron, which was responsible for the bodybuilder-turned-actor's fame.[38] The twin controversies later ledLos Angeles Times columnist Steve Lopez to coin the term "gropenfuhrer" to describe California's governor-elect (a compounded pun on the Nazi paramilitary rankGruppenführer and the wordsto grope andFührer);[39] a series ofDoonesbury strips made the term famous.
On October 27,The New York Times reported the disappearance of a huge cache of explosives from a warehouse inal Qa'qaa (themissing explosives in Iraq). TheJohn Kerry campaign blamed the Bush administration for this supposed mismanagement; administration officials charged that theTimes had gotten the story wrong, and that the explosives had been cleared from the storage facility before the looting was supposed to have taken place.
On October 29, the Arabic news agencyAl Jazeera aireda video of Osama bin Laden.[13][33] In a speech that justified and took responsibility for the actions of September 11, bin Laden called out the Bush administration and the American position in theIsraeli–Palestinian conflict. Bin Laden was quoted as saying: "Your security does not lie in the hands of Kerry, Bush, or al-Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands."[40] This is believed to have helped President Bush's campaign as it thrust thewar on terror back into the public eye. There is debate as to whether bin Laden was aware of the effect the video would have on the elections; the "Bush bounce" from the video did not surprise most outside observers of the 2004 election. It has been claimed that Saudi PrinceBandar bin Sultan Al Saud cut the price of oil (thus reducing gas prices) to help ensure a Bush victory.[41] According to a60 Minutes broadcast, "Prince Bandar enjoys easy access to the Oval Office. His family and the Bush family are close. AndWoodward told us that Bandar has promised the president that Saudi Arabia will lower oil prices in the months before the election to ensure the U.S. economy is strong on Election Day."[42]
Two studies byThe Lancet onmortality in Iraq before and after the2003 invasion of Iraq have been described as October surprises for the 2004 and 2006 elections.[43]Les Roberts acknowledged that the 2004 study was timed to appear just before the presidential election,[44] though he denied that it was meant to favor one candidate over another.[citation needed] Although the studies used standard epidemiological methods, was peer-reviewed and supported by a majority of statisticians and epidemiologists, political critics have dismissed the studies based on a variety of alleged shortcomings.[44]
TheMark Foley scandal, in which the congressman resigned over sexual computer messages that he exchanged with underagecongressional pages, broke on September 28, 2006, and dominated the news in early October.Bloomberg.com wrote, "The October surprise came early this election year...."[45] Allegations that both Republicans and Democrats had knowledge of Foley's actions months before the breaking of the story only fueled the speculation regarding the possibly politically motivated timing of the story's release.[46]
News that theSaddam Hussein trial verdict would be rendered on November 5, 2006, just two days ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, ledTom Engelhardt of magazineThe Nation to dub it, on October 17, the "November Surprise".[47] In aWhite House Press gaggle on November 4, 2006, a reporter suggested that the timing of the verdict might be an attempt to influence the outcome of the November election, to which White House Press SecretaryTony Snow replied "Are you smoking rope?" Snow later told CNN'sLate Edition, "The idea is preposterous, that somehow we've been scheming and plotting with the Iraqis".[48]
On October 31, 2008, four days before the2008 presidential election, theAssociated Press reported thatZeituni Onyango, half-aunt of Democratic candidateBarack Obama, was living as an illegal immigrant inBoston. She had been denied asylum and ordered to leave the United States in 2004.[49]
Some have also described the stock market crash and October 2008 record rise in unemployment as an "October Surprise", although the downturn in the American and global stock markets started in September.[50][33]
Hurricane Sandy was labeled the October surprise by some in the media at the time,[51][52] though there some researchers found no evidence that it impacted the outcome of the election after the fact.[53]
TheEbola virus epidemic was considered an October surprise by some media outlets.[54]
On October 7,a recording from 2005 was released in which Republican Party nomineeDonald Trump, using explicit language in a conversation withAccess Hollywood anchorBilly Bush (nephew of Republican PresidentGeorge H. W. Bush and first cousin of Republican PresidentGeorge W. Bush and his brother, Republican former Florida governor and2016 primary candidateJeb Bush), stated "when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything... Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything." Several politicians from both major parties expressed their disapproval of these remarks. Trump, who had been accused ofsexism on several occasions before, later apologized for these remarks, saying they "don't reflect who I am."[55][56][57]
The remarks led tomany Republicans withdrawing their endorsement of Trump, including Arizona SenatorJohn McCain, New Hampshire SenatorKelly Ayotte, andCarly Fiorina. Many others who had not previously endorsed him asked him to step aside as the Republican nominee, including former Secretary of StateCondoleezza Rice.[citation needed]
Also, on October 7,WikiLeaks began a two-month campaign to release emails and excerpts fromJohn Podesta's account. They would later become known as thePodesta Leaks. They shed a negative light on Democratic Party nomineeHillary Clinton and included recordings of excerpts of speeches given by Clinton to a variety of banks, a debate question being leaked to Clinton before the debate, a stance on trade deals different from those purported by Clinton during her campaign, along with her belief that it is beneficial to hold both public and private beliefs.[58]
Three weeks later, on October 28, then-FBI DirectorJames Comey announced in a letter to Congress that he would take "appropriate investigative steps" to review additional emails related to Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server. This was announced after newly discovered emails were found on a computer that the FBI seized during an investigation of former congressmanAnthony Weiner, who had been accused of sending explicit pictures to a minor. According to law enforcement officials, the emails were found on a computer used by both Weiner and his then-wife, top Clinton aideHuma Abedin. Several hours later, Hillary Clinton responded to the decision of the Director by calling on the FBI to be fully transparent and to release "full and complete facts" on what the emails contained. On October 30, it was reported that 650,000 emails on Weiner's computer were to be investigated, potentially being relevant to this particular and other cases.[59][60][61] Almost all ended up being duplicates, and when Comey revealed that the investigation found nothing on November 6, some Clinton aides later worried that it put the emails back in the news cycle two days before the election.[62] Comey also received criticism for only publicly disclosing the Clinton email investigations and keeping quiet about the inquiry into Russian attempts to boost Donald Trump.[63] A 2018inspector general report of the decision to reopen the investigation in October described it as "a serious error in judgment."[63] Daniel Drezner argued it was the greatest October surprise of the modern presidency.[64][33]
Acaravan of migrants from Central America became the "October surprise" of 2018.[54][65][additional citation(s) needed] President Trumptweeted information about the caravan[66] and later released a Republican television advertisement that many criticized as racist (Fox News,NBC, andFacebook removed the ad after they deemed it racist, andCNN refused to air it).[67] The story dominated discussion on many news networks, with many pundits criticizing Trump. News hostShepard Smith said on his Fox News show that the migrant caravan "hysteria" was actually intended to stoke fear before the midterm election and ridiculed Trump's claims.[68][69]
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On October 2, Trump announced that he andMelania Trump had tested positive forCOVID-19.[70] This was considered by some the day after the event to be an October surprise,[71][72][disputed –discuss] and this positive diagnosis was part of a more significant outbreak that occurred in the White House in October 2020 and had been traced back to the fast-tracked ceremony to announceAmy Coney Barrett as the successor toRuth Bader Ginsburg's Supreme Court seat. Infectious disease expertAnthony Fauci has described the event as a "super spreader" event that reportedly infected over 30 people, including senior White House officials.[73]The Economist argued that the polling shift from the COVID case was erased before election day, arguing it was likely not an October surprise.[74]
An October 14 article by theNew York Post about emails found on an external hard drive of alaptop computer belonging to Joe Biden's son Hunter was considered an October surprise. However,NBC News described it as a "failed one."[75][relevant?]
On October 3, 2022,The Daily Beast reported that former football playerHerschel Walker, the Republican nominee in the2022 United States Senate election in Georgia, paid for his wife's 2009 abortion despite claiming to be "100%pro-life". Walker's son Christian, who has a large following as a right-wing social media influencer, additionally stated that the woman whose abortion Walker paid for was Christian's mother. Christian Walker additionally slammed his father's comments on being a "family man", claiming Herschel Walker "left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to kill us, and had us move over 6 times in 6 months running from [his] violence", additionally revealing that Herschel Walker's family had never wanted him to run for office.[76][77][needs update]
On October 27, ata Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, comedianTony Hinchcliffe describedPuerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage," which has been described as an October surprise by some commentators as it could have an impact onPuerto Rican voters, especially in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state with half a million Puerto Ricans.[78][79][80][81] A poll among Latino voters in Pennsylvania showed that 69% of respondents found the joke to be "more racist than humorous," and 51% indicated that the remarks at the Trump rally influenced their voting preference towards Harris.[82][83] Trump would go on to win thestate of Pennsylvania and the general election, becoming thepresident-elect of the United States.
In October 2025, a 2022 text conversation between Democratic Virginia Attorney General nomineeJay Jones and Republican state delegateCarrie Coyner following the death of former delegate DemocratJoe Johnson Jr. was made public byNational Review. In the texts, Jones made disparaging remarks toward Republican members of theVirginia House of Delegates, stating, "If those guys die before me I will go to their funerals to piss on their graves." Jones then followed up the remark by targeting then-Speaker RepublicanTodd Gilbert, giving a scenario in which Gilbert would be shot twice in the head. Jones said, "Three people, two bullets, Gilbert,Hitler, andPol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head. Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know, and he receives both bullets every time." Jones would then take his remarks further, targeting Gilbert's children, wishing death upon them, and stating that Gilbert and his wife were "evil" and "breeding little fascists."[84][85][86][87]
An illustration of the change that has taken place within a very few years may be seen in the history of the campaign lie, known in American politics as the ' roorbach.' The name first became current in 1844, when a mendacious statement, purporting to lie taken from Roorbach's Tour through the Western and Southern States was published wild the intent to destroy Mr. Polk's chances for the presidency. Under conditions then existing, it was thought safe to launch this falsehood two months before the election. By 1880, when the Morey letter was sprung upon Garfield, the expectancy of life for the roorbach had been reduced to two weeks.
George Osgoodby, author of the famous 'Murchison' letter, has lived at Pomona 15 years. He came to California from New-York when a boy, and has worked on farms during the greater part of his residence in California.
The term "October surprise" is most famously associated with the 1980 campaign, when Republicans spent the fall worrying that Jimmy Carter would engineer a last-minute deal to free the American hostages who had been held in Iran since the previous year. Carter and Ronald Reagan were locked in a close race, but an awful economy and flagging national confidence made the president supremely vulnerable.
A bipartisan House panel has concluded that there is no merit to the persistent accusations that people associated with the 1980 Presidential campaign of Ronald Reagan struck a secret deal with Iran to delay the release of American hostages until after the election.
In campaign parlance, the term 'October surprise' means a news story that breaks late in an election cycle that could tip the balance of the election. Hands down, James B. Comey's 2016 reopening of the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails is the greatest October surprise of the modern presidency.