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Obama–Trump voters

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Type of voter in United States elections

Donald Trump (left) andBarack Obama (right) together on theformer's inauguration day, January 20, 2017

In theUnited States,Obama–Trump voters, sometimes referred to asTrump Democrats orObama Republicans, are people who voted forDemocratic Party nomineeBarack Obama in the2008 and/or2012 presidential elections, but later voted forRepublican Party nomineeDonald Trump in2016,2020, and/or2024. Data shows that in 2016, these voters comprised roughly 13% of Trump voters. In 2012, this segment of voters made up 9% of total Obama voters.[1] Seven percent of 2012 Obama voters did not vote at all in 2016, and 3% voted for athird-party candidate.[1] While some analysts consider Obama–Trump voters to have been decisive in Trump's 2016 victory, others have disputed this conclusion.

According to research done by theDemocracy Fund Voter Study Group, compared to other voters, Obama–Trump voters haveprogressive economic views andconservative social views.[2] However, 75 percent of them supported repealing and replacing theAffordable Care Act (Obamacare) according to another survey. Though these voters supported Trump in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections, they are less supportive of Republicans as a whole, and show a desire to change thestatus quo.[3]

Studies

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Various studies estimate the percentage of 2016 Trump voters, who had previously voted for Obama, at between 11 and 15 percent. TheCooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) found that 11% of 2016 Trump voters had voted for Obama in 2012,[4] with theAmerican National Election Study putting the number at 13%,[4] and theUniversity of Virginia Center for Politics estimating 15%.[4] Expressed in total number of voters, these percentages indicate that between 7 and 9 million 2016 Trump voters voted for Obama in 2012.[4]

According to a May 2017McClatchy news report, an analysis by Democratic political firmGlobal Strategy Group estimated that Obama–Trump voters accounted for more than two-thirds of Obama voters who did not vote forHillary Clinton.[5]

In 2021, aJacobin study found that while Joe Biden eked out a narrow victory in the 2020 presidential election by winning high vote totals in college educated metropolitan areas, Trump continued to increase his votes in both white and non-white non-college-educated counties which had previously shifted from Obama to Trump.[6]

A 2024 Navigator Research analysis[7] showed that Donald Trump continued to gain even more support in the important demographic groups of Black and Latino men, and voters experiencing financial hardship, building further on gains Trump achieved in these demographics from 2016 to 2020.

Significance

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Wisconsin from2012 through to2020. Voters in the western, northern and southeastern parts of the state that had voted forBarack Obama in 2012 had swung toDonald Trump in2016 and predominantly stuck with Trump in 2020. This correlated closely with the state's white, working class populations, who had gone from supportingMitt Romney 52 to 47 percent in 2012 to supporting Trump 56 to 38 percent in 2016.[8] This pattern continued into 2020, with Trump continuing to win economically-depressed white Obama counties such asRacine andKenosha.[9]

Some analysts have argued that Obama–Trump voters had a disproportionately large impact on the 2016 election because they were concentrated in keyswing states in theMidwest while others have said they were actually "Obama Republicans" rather than Democrats to begin with.[10][11]

Some have disputed both the quantity and the significance of Obama–Trump voters in deciding the outcome of the 2016 election.Dana Milbank argued in an August 2017Washington Post column that the number of such voters was initially overstated and that most of them were Republicans who only defected from their party to vote for Obama, not Democrats who defected to support Trump.[12]Nate Cohn countered Milbank's assessment by arguing that Milbank's focus on national data obscured the magnitude of Democratic defection in 2016 to support Trump. Cohn noted that when looking specifically at white Obama voters with no higher education than ahigh school diploma, Clinton won only 74% (based on data from theDemocracy Fund Voter Study Group) or 78% (based on theCooperative Congressional Election Study).[10]

In a 2021 interview about their bookTrump's Democrats,[13] Stephanie Muravchik and Jon A. Shields noted that many Obama–Trump voters likewise voted for Trump in the 2020 election, in some counties in even larger numbers than in 2016. Muravchik and Shields assessed that these "flipped" Democrats would continue to be a key factor in future elections.[14]

In November 2024,Newsweek reported evidence from Donald Trump's successful 2024 presidential election bid, which showed that key voter demographic groups, particularly low income non-college educated voters, who had previously voted for Obama, had maintained their support for Trump.[15]

Voters' views

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Shortly before the 2016 election,The New York Times reported that Obama voters who planned to vote for Trump felt he embodied the "change" they had hoped for when they voted for Obama.[16] Multiplefocus groups of Obama–Trump voters convened by theRoosevelt Institute and Democracy Corps in early 2017 showed that in general these voters wanted to change thestatus quo and had skeptical views of Congressional Republicans and their proposals. The same focus groups also indicated that these voters hoped then-President Trump would help reduce health care costs for working-class Americans, and that they were anxious about some immigrant groups.[17]

A multi-year survey completed by theDemocracy Fund Voter Study Group found that Obama–Trump voters generally hadliberal views on economic issues, butconservative views on social issues.[18] In a 2017 editorial forNew York Magazine, Eric Levitz noted that data from the CCES indicates 75% of Obama–Trump voters supported repealing and replacing theAffordable Care Act.[11]

According to an article inPolitico, a September 2017Democracy Fund Voter Study Group poll found that 70% of Obama–Trump voters approved of the job Trump was doing as president. This figure was significantly lower than the 88% approval rating among all Trump voters. Similarly, the percent of voters who disapproved of Trump's performance in this poll was much higher among Obama–Trump voters (22%) than among Trump voters as a whole (9%).[19]

In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which saw record turnouts of both Republicans and Democrats, Trump received millions more votes than he had received in 2016, including an overall increase in votes from people of color, despite losing the election to DemocratJoe Biden, who was Obama's running mate in both 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Likewise, Biden received more votes than did Hillary Clinton in 2016.[20][21]

A 2024 Navigator Research post-election survey showed that the dynamics and voter demographics involved in the shift of voters from Obama to Trump in 2016 and 2020, continued in the same trajectory into 2024, with Trump gaining further increases in votes from younger voters, working class voters concerned about economic problems, and non-white male voters.[22]

Swing states in presidential elections

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During this post-Obama electoral era,Florida,Iowa, andOhio, onceswing states, became stronghold red states. These states voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, and voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. In contrast, theSun Belt states ofArizona andGeorgia, once stronghold red states, became swing states. These states voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024, and voted for Biden in 2020. TheRust Belt states ofMichigan,Pennsylvania, andWisconsin, once blue-leaning states (formerly part of the "blue wall"), became swing states. These states voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024, and voted for Biden in 2020.Indiana andNorth Carolina voted for Obama once in 2008, and voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024.Nevada voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, voted for Biden in 2020, and voted for Trump once in 2024.

YearArizonaFloridaGeorgiaIndianaIowaMichiganNevadaNorth CarolinaOhioPennsylvaniaWisconsin
2008McCainObamaMcCainObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObamaObama
2012RomneyObamaRomneyRomneyObamaObamaObamaRomneyObamaObamaObama
2016TrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpClintonTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
2020BidenTrumpBidenTrumpTrumpBidenBidenTrumpTrumpBidenBiden
2024TrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump
YearArizonaFloridaGeorgiaIndianaIowaMichiganNevadaNorth CarolinaOhioPennsylvaniaWisconsin
Key
Democratic Party nominee
Republican Party nominee

See also

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Portals:

References

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  1. ^abBump, Philip (March 12, 2018)."4.4 million 2012 Obama voters stayed home in 2016 — more than a third of them black".The Washington Post. RetrievedJune 28, 2020.
  2. ^"Tipping the Scales: How Small Groups in Each Party May Outweigh the Rest in the 2018 Midterm Elections".Voter Study Group. August 2018. RetrievedOctober 15, 2020.
  3. ^"Tipping the Scales: How Small Groups in Each Party May Outweigh the Rest in the 2018 Midterm Elections".Voter Study Group. August 2018. RetrievedOctober 15, 2020.
  4. ^abcdSkelley, Geoffrey (June 1, 2017)."Just How Many Obama 2012-Trump 2016 Voters Were There?".Center for Politics. RetrievedOctober 15, 2020.
  5. ^Roarty, Alex morning (May 2, 2017)."Democrats say they now know exactly why Clinton lost".McClatchyDC. RetrievedOctober 15, 2020.
  6. ^EDITORS (February 8, 2021)."Trump's Surprising Working-Class Success".Jacobin. RetrievedApril 12, 2025.
  7. ^Cousens, Maryann (December 11, 2024)."2024 Post-Election Survey: Racial Analysis of 2024 Election Results".Navigator Research. RetrievedApril 12, 2025.
  8. ^Rakich, Nathaniel (October 16, 2020)."Wisconsin Was Never A Safe Blue State".FiveThirtyEight.
  9. ^Austin, John C. (November 23, 2020)."Where Midwesterners struggle, Trumpism lives on".Brookings Institution.
  10. ^abCohn, Nate (August 15, 2017)."The Obama–Trump Voters Are Real. Here's What They Think".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2018.
  11. ^abLevitz, Eric (August 16, 2017)."Trump Democrats Are Rare—But Electorally Important".Daily Intelligencer. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2018.
  12. ^Milbank, Dana (August 4, 2017)."There's no such thing as a Trump Democrat".Washington Post. RetrievedOctober 15, 2020.
  13. ^Muravchik, Stephanie; Shields, Jon A. (September 29, 2020)."Trump's Democrats".Brookings Institution Press. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2021.
  14. ^McCormick, Bill (January 14, 2021)."Interview: Why did so many Democrats vote for Trump—and what should Joe Biden do about it?".America: The Jesuit Review. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2021.
  15. ^McHardy, Martha (November 9, 2024)."Barack Obama Voters Are Donald Trump Supporters Now".Newsweek. RetrievedApril 12, 2025.
  16. ^Alcindor, Yamiche (November 2, 2016)."Some Who Saw Change in Obama Find It Now in Donald Trump".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2018.
  17. ^"Focus Group: Obama-to-Trump Voters Expect Change, Don't Trust GOP to Deliver".Roosevelt Institute. March 15, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2018.
  18. ^"Democrats are unlikely to win back Obama–Trump voters. But they should still have an economic agenda to help them".Vox. June 16, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2018.
  19. ^"Poll: Obama–Trump voters drifting away from the president".Politico. September 6, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2018.
  20. ^Nagesh, Ashitha (November 22, 2020)."US election 2020: Why Trump gained support among minorities".BBC News. RetrievedJuly 13, 2021.
  21. ^Colarossi, Natalie (November 19, 2020)."Donald Trump's 73.6 Million Popular Votes Is Over 7 Million More Than Any Sitting President in History".Newsweek. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2021.
  22. ^Bennett, Bryan (November 20, 2024)."2024 Post-Election Survey: Trump Won "Swing Voters" by 8 Points".Navigator Research. RetrievedApril 12, 2025.
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