2026 Senedd election

← 2021 7 May 2026
← outgoing members
All96 seats to theSenedd 49 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Eluned Morgan Darren Millar Rhun ap Iorwerth Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru Leader since 24 July 2024 5 December 2024 16 June 2023 Last election 30 seats, 36.2% 16 seats, 25.1% 13, 20.7% Current seats 29 seats 13 seats 13 seats[a] Leader's seat before Mid and West Wales Clwyd West Ynys Môn Standing in Ceredigion Penfro Clwyd Bangor Conwy Môn   Leader Jane Dodds Anthony Slaughter Dan Thomas Party Liberal Democrats Green Reform Leader since 3 November 2017 December 2018 5 February 2026 Last election 1 seat, 4.3% 0 seats, 4.4% 0 seats, 1.1% Current seats 1 seat 0 seats 2 seats Leader's seat before Mid and West Wales None None Standing in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Caerdydd Penarth TBC
Blank election map
Incumbent First Minister Eluned Morgan Labour

The2026 Senedd election is due to be held on 7 May 2026^[1][2] to elect 96 members to theSenedd (Welsh Parliament;Welsh:Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventhdevolvedgeneral election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election followingreforms to the voting system, which increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopt aparty-list voting system, reduce thenumber of constituencies to sixteen, and shorten its term from five years to four.^[3][4] The election will be held on the same day aslocal elections inEngland andelections to theScottish Parliament.

In the2021 Senedd election, Welsh Labour won another government with just one seat short of their first-ever majority.^[5] At the2022 Welsh local elections, the Welsh Conservatives suffered losses to Plaid Cymru and Labour.^[6] In the2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales,Labour won the most seats and theConservatives were wiped out losing all their Welsh seats.^[7]

In September 2025, following theAngela Rayner tax scandal that led to her resignation and aLabour Party deputy leadership election, the subsequentcabinet reshuffle, and the dismissal ofPeter Mandelson asBritish ambassador to the United States over the latter's association withJeffrey Epstein, criticisms of Starmer's leadership became more prominent within the Labour Party. MPs reportedly viewed underperformance in the2026 United Kingdom local elections and next Senedd election as a likely catalyst for a leadership challenge.^[8] Polls have suggested a neck and neck battle betweenPlaid Cymru andReform UK.^[9] The 2026 vote is considered to be seismic forWelsh politics,^[10] and is being touted as the "most consequential Senedd election since 1999".^[11]

The 2026 Senedd election will use a new electoral system following the approval of theSenedd Reform Act. The Senedd will have 96 members, all elected throughclosed party listproportional representation (using theD'Hondt method) in16 six-member constituencies. The 16 constituencies werecreated by pairing up the32 Westminster constituencies.^[12][13] Parties can nominate up to 8 candidates on their list in each constituency.^[14]

In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns during the term, they will be replaced by the member below them on their party's list rather than aby-election being held. In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in1999, the Senedd has been elected through theadditional member system, and had 60 members, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by thefirst past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those usedfor Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for aclosed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by theD'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The new electoral system would be ready to be used only for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.^[15] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.^[16]

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women; however, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.^[17]

MSs who have announced their retirement are initalics.

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NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election who are seeking re-election are bolded.^[18]

On 2 February 2025,Welsh Labour leaderEluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition withPlaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition withReform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here", and also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them.^[39] This election has been described as pivotal for thepremiership of Keir Starmer.^[40] Morgan warned that a "threat to the United Kingdom will become real" if Plaid and the Green Party gain a majority in the Senedd, calling for furtherdevolution, calling it the "best way to lower the temperature and raise trust."^[41]

A day later, Plaid Cymru leaderRhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different."^[42] In April 2025, Reform UK leaderNigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.^[43]

Following the election of Zack Polanski as Green Party leader in September 2025, the party's popularity rose sharply,^[44].Their positive relationship with Plaid Cymru could lead to collaboration of some sort, which has both not been confirmed nor ruled out.^[45]

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.^[46][47]

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:

• 2026 Scottish Parliament election
• Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

• Next Senedd election

• 2020s elections in Wales
• General elections to the Senedd
• 2026 elections in the United Kingdom

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