While the rest of the state's electorate tends to be solidlyRepublican, the 2nd district is much more closely divided between the Republican andDemocratic parties.[4] In the 2010s, the district became known as a swing district; it was one of two districts with a margin of less than 5% in all elections held after the2010 census. Since2000, it has backed the electoral winner of the presidential election with the exceptions of2012 and2024.
Since 1992,Nebraska is one of only two states in theUnited States that distributes theirelectoral votes forpresident by bothcongressional district and statewidepopular vote (the other beingMaine). In the2008 United States presidential election, Democratic presidential candidateBarack Obama targeted the district as a strategy of breaking a potential electoral-vote tie.[5] He won the district's electoral vote by a margin of 3,325 votes over RepublicanJohn McCain, who won the state's other four electoral votes.[6] Obama's victory in the 2nd district meant that Nebraska's electoral delegation was split for the first time ever, and the first Nebraskan electoral vote for a Democrat since 1964.[6] However, he subsequently failed to win the district in2012 againstMitt Romney.[7] In 2014, longtime RepresentativeLee Terry, a Republican, was ousted by Democratic challengerBrad Ashford, one of only two Republican incumbents that cycle to lose their seat.[8]
In2016, RepublicanDonald Trump won only a plurality of the 2nd district over DemocratHillary Clinton; he won only 2% over Clinton, a sharp reduction of Romney's seven-point advantage over Obama. RepublicanDon Bacon also bested one-term Democrat Brad Ashford to win the seat and has held the seat since. In2020, Trump notably targeted the district in a fashion similar to Obama as DemocratJoe Biden polled at an advantage in the district.[9] Trump's campaigning in the district drew criticism after rally attendees were left stranded in freezing temperatures due to transportation issues.[10] Biden ultimately won in the district over Trump by six points, nearly matching Romney's margin over Obama.[11]Precious McKesson cast the electoral vote, making her the first woman of color in the state to cast an Electoral college ballot.[12][13] On August 17, 2024, Nebraska native and Minnesota GovernorTim Walz campaigned in the district to win it over once again.[14] Democrats have nicknamed the district the 'blue dot' from its depiction on electoral maps surrounded byred states.[15]
According to the APM Research Lab's Voter Profile Tools[16] (featuring the U.S. Census Bureau's 2019 American Community Survey), the district contained about 473,000 potential voters (citizens, age 18+). Of these, 80% are White, 9% Black, and 6% Latino. Immigrants make up 5% of the district's potential voters. The median income among households (with one or more potential voters) in the district is about $73,400, while 8% of households live below the poverty line. As for the educational attainment of potential voters in the district, 40% hold a bachelor's or higher degree.
During redistricting in 2011, state lawmakers removed the city ofBellevue — an area with a large minority population — and Offutt Air Force Base from the district, and moved them to a district including Omaha's Republican-heavy suburbs in western Sarpy County. The move was criticized by Democrats as agerrymander meant to dilute the urban vote due to its support of Obama in 2008.[17]
Following its support of Joe Biden in the 2020 election, State SenatorLou Ann Linehan proposed a new map that would again dilute the Democratic vote by splitting the city of Omaha into two separate districts, and adding heavily Republican-leaning Sarpy and Saunders Counties.[18][19] State SenatorJustin Wayne proposed an alternative map that would restore the map to its pre-2011 movement by adding Bellevue back to the district and remove areas that lean Republican. Linehan's congressional redistricting plan passed the committee 5–4 on a party-line vote, but failed a cloture vote following a filibuster; both maps received bipartisan criticism for splitting Douglas and/or Sarpy counties.[19] The legislature ultimately passed a map that kept Douglas County intact, while retaining rural parts in western Sarpy County and adding the rural Saunders County. The resulting maps have again been criticized as gerrymanders, and both Linehan's and the final maps have again been characterized as diluting urban voters.[20]
^Sanderford, Aaron (November 15, 2022)."In Nebraska's Sea of Red, few felt splash from 'Republican wave'".Nebraska Examiner. RetrievedMarch 20, 2023.Nebraska's most competitive congressional race in the Omaha area is starting to settle into a pattern that nearly matches the district's 4 percentage point GOP registration advantage. An analysis of 2nd District election results and voting patterns show U.S. Rep. Don Bacon did not secure more votes this year than in 2020 or 2018.
^Curry, Tom (November 2, 2008)."Is Obama-Terry the winning ticket in Omaha?". NBC News. Archived fromthe original on May 21, 2014. RetrievedNovember 20, 2008.If the national electoral vote tally is close, then the one electoral vote in Omaha would loom large. But with Obama apparently ahead in competitive states such as Virginia, the presidency may not hinge on Omaha's vote.
^Walton, Don (November 7, 2012)."Romney wins 2nd District electoral vote". Lincoln Journal Star. RetrievedDecember 12, 2022.Republican nominee Mitt Romney appeared to have won the battle for Nebraska's only competitive presidential electoral vote Tuesday night. [...] Romney held comfortable leads in both the 1st District, which includes Lincoln, and the vast 3rd District, as well as statewide.
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