 | |
| Agency overview | |
|---|---|
| Formed | 1979; 46 years ago (1979) |
| Jurisdiction | United States Government |
| Parent agency | Office of the Director of National Intelligence |
TheNational Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979 and reporting to theDirector of National Intelligence, bridges theUnited States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Trends" report every four years beginning in 1997, for the incoming President of the United States. Their work is based on intelligence from a wide variety of sources that includes experts inacademia and theprivate sector. NIC documents and reports which are used bypolicymakers, include theNational Intelligence Estimate and the Global Trends reports. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best available information, that is unvarnished, unbiased and without regard to whether the analytic judgments conform to current U.S. policy.
Global Trends is an important analytical projects produced for the incoming US president, which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day andInauguration Day. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years. The Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the Intelligence Community. In 1997, the Office of the NIC Director released the first Global Trends report, "Global Trends 2010".[1]
WhenWalter Bedell Smith becameDirector of Central Intelligence in 1950, he establishedOffice of National Estimates (ONE), whose sole purpose was to produce National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). There were two components in ONE, a staff which drafted the estimates and a senior body, the Board of National Estimates, which reviewed the estimates, coordinated the judgments with other agencies, and negotiated over their final form.[2] The ONE consisted of a group of intelligence professionals, complemented by retired military officers, diplomats, and academics. Though ONE, which reported to the DCI, was officially outside of the CIA, many ONE members came from the agency.[3]
The National Intelligence Council (NIC), which was established in 1979, also reports to theDirector of National Intelligence. The NIC bridges theUnited States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States, according to a February 2, 2007 DNI report.[4]
The report combines "traditional national security challenges" with "social trends that have clear security implications".[5]
In 2011, NIC members included "18 senior analysts and national security policy experts", who were appointed by the Director of National Intelligence. The NIC support the work of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and theNational Security Council. Congress may at times request that the NIC prepare "specific estimates and other analytical products" to inform "consideration of legislation", according to aCongressional Research Service (CRS) report.[6] The NIC also "provides the U.S. intelligence community's best judgments on crucial international issues".[6]
The NIC has a Chairman and Vice Chairman, as well as a Vice Chairman for Evaluation, a Director of Strategic Plans and Outreach, a Director of Analysis and Production Staff, a Special Adviser, and National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) and Deputy National Intelligence Officer for different subject matters includingAfrica,East Asia,Europe,Latin America,Near East,South Asia,Russia andEurasia. Issues includeeconomics andglobal issues, science and technology, intelligence assurance, military issues,transnational threats, warning,weapons of mass destruction andnuclear proliferation, and cyber.
The first director of the NIC wasRichard Lehman, (1979–1981) who served during the tenure of then PresidentJimmy Carter.
One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president which is usually delivered to the incoming president between Election Day andInauguration Day. The Global Trends reports assess critical drivers and scenarios for global trends with an approximate time horizon of fifteen years.[7] While the Global Trends analysis provides a basis for long-range strategic policy assessment for the White House and the intelligence community, it is proscribed by law to not provide any policy recommendations.[8]
The goal of the report is to examine "longer-term impacts" of "current changes" on the "world of the future"—twenty years ahead.[8]
The first Global Trends report was released in 1997,[1] and the most recent, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World'" was released in March 2021.[9] The NIC's Strategic Futures Group, under the direction of Maria Langan-Riekhof, led the publication of the "Global Trends 2040" report, working with 18 organizations that make up the United States Intelligence Community. This includes theNational Security Agency andC.I.A.[8]
Previous reports include "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress" in January 2017,[10] "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" in 2012,[11] "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World", "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future", "Global Trends 2010" in 1997,[1] and "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts" in December 2000.[12]
In December 2004, the NIC published a report on its 2020 Project, titled "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future".[13] Developed in consultation with "non-governmental experts around the world," the report examined possible scenarios evolving out of global trends shaping international politics and economics. Particular emphasis was put on the increasing role ofChina andIndia on the global stage, as well as the evolution ofradical Islamic terrorism worldwide.[14] Considerations are made for the potential proliferation ofweapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the use ofbiological andchemical weapons in future terrorist attacks.
At the beginning thePresidency of Donald Trump in January 2017, theObama administration released its report titled, "Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress", which "highlighted the risk of a pandemic and the vast economic disruption it could cause."[5][10]
In their April 15, 2021 article about the March 2021 report, "NIC Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World", theNew York Times editorial board cited experts in Washington saying "they do not recall a gloomier" NIC Global Trends report.[8] TheTimes listed headings such as "Competitive Coexistence", "Separate Silos", "Tragedy and Mobilization", and "A World Adrift" and questions if we will heed the report's warnings "at a time when states and societies are turning inward and political discourse has become poisonous."[8] According to the report, "Nationalism and polarization have been on the rise in many countries, especially exclusionary nationalism. Efforts to contain and manage the virus have reinforced nationalist trends globally as some states turned inward to protect their citizens and sometimes cast blame on marginalized groups."[9]: 12 [5]
 | This section needs to beupdated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(October 2025) |
| Name | Term start | Term end | President |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Lehman | 1979 | 1981 | Jimmy Carter |
| Henry Rowen | July 8, 1981 | September 1983 | Ronald Reagan |
| Robert Gates | September 1983 | April 18, 1986 | |
| Frank Horton III | September 1986 | September 1987 | |
| Fritz Ermarth | 1988 | January 20, 1993 | |
| George H. W. Bush | |||
| Joseph Nye | February 20, 1993 | September 15, 1994 | Bill Clinton |
| Christine Williams | September 15, 1994 | June 1, 1995 | |
| Richard N. Cooper | June 1, 1995 | January 1997 | |
| John C. Gannon | July 22, 1997 | June 2001 | |
| George W. Bush | |||
| John L. Helgerson | August 3, 2001 | April 26, 2002 | |
| Robert Hutchings | February 2003 | January 2005 | |
| Thomas Fingar | June 13, 2005 | December 1, 2008 | |
| Peter Lavoy | December 1, 2008 | July 6, 2009 | |
| Barack Obama | |||
| Chris Kojm | July 6, 2009 | July 2014 | |
| Greg Treverton | September 8, 2014 | October 28, 2016 | |
| Amy McAuliffe | October 28, 2016 | October 27, 2019 | |
| Donald Trump | |||
| Neil Wiley | October 28, 2019 | January 21, 2021 | |
| Avril Haines | January 21, 2021 | January 20, 2025 | Joe Biden |
