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TheFourth Moscow Conference,[1] also known as theTolstoy Conference[2] for its code nameTolstoy,[3] was a meeting in Moscow betweenWinston Churchill andJoseph Stalin from 9 to 19 October 1944.
According to Churchill's memoirs, Churchill made a secret proposal on a scrap of paper to divide postwar Europe into Western and Soviet spheres of influence.[4] Stalin, apparently examined the scrap of paper and pondered it for a moment, wrote a large check in blue pencil and handed it back to Churchill.[4] Churchill commented: "Might it not be thought rather cynical if it seemed we had disposed of such issues, so fateful to millions of people, in such an offhand manner? Let us burn the paper". Stalin counselled, however, to save the historic scrap of paper. Churchill called the scrap of paper a "naughty document",[5] which came to be known as the "Percentages agreement".
These originally-proposed spheres of influence that Churchill were nominated to Stalin in percentages:
The US ambassador to the Soviet Union, representing President Roosevelt,Averell Harriman, was not present for the discussions, but Churchill informed Roosevelt on 10 October of an agreement after more deliberations. However, it is not certain to what extent the true details were made known at the time.[4] Roosevelt was conditionally supportive but was ultimately unhappy with the level of US influence in the Balkans, specifically Bulgaria, which was the sticking point for the discussion. That resulted in the original percentages being haggled over for some days.[4]
A significant consequence of the agreement was theCold War, according to Resis,[4] because of its prewar imperialist thought of Churchill and Stalin. It removed the free choice of Eastern Europe and Mediterranean peoples from choosing their own path forward free from Nazi occupation.
The proposed percentage division was never mentioned atYalta Conference or other meetings.[6]Norman Naimark states that it "confirmed that Eastern Europe, initially at least, would lie within the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union".[7] However, the British historianAndrew Roberts stated:
Stalin agreed that the Soviet Union would enter the war against Japan, and the British agreed to return to the Soviets all former Soviet citizens who had been liberated from the Germans.[9]
There has never been a confirmation of this agreement and the sole source is Churchill's memoirs.[10] As early as 1958, the authenticity of Churchill's claim has come into question.[11]
The chief representatives for theSoviet Union at the conference wereJoseph Stalin, the Soviet premier, andVyacheslav Molotov the Soviet foreign minister. TheUnited Kingdom's principal representatives wereWinston Churchill, the prime minister, andAnthony Eden, the foreign secretary. TheChief of the Imperial General Staff, Field MarshalSir Alan Brooke was also present, as were theUnited States ambassador to Moscow,Averell Harriman, and GeneralJohn R. Deane, head of the United States Military Mission in Moscow as observers.
Also at the conference were delegations from both the London-basedPolish government-in-exile and the communist Lublin-basedPolish Committee of National Liberation.[12][13]
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