TheIowa State Fair Straw Poll[a] is an informal poll for presidential and Iowa congressional candidates. The poll has been conducted by theIowaSecretary of State with results posted to their website.[1][2] It was begun in 2015 after theRepublican Party of Iowa announced it would no longer hold its officialIowa Straw Poll given that a majority of presidential candidates declined to participate.[3]
In 2015, the State Fair poll foundDonald Trump to be the most favoredGOP candidate among 677 votes cast, defeatingBen Carson and Sen.Ted Cruz (Texas). Cruz went on to win the Iowa GOP caucuses, defeating Trump by 4 percent. On theDemocratic side, out of a little more than 1,000 votes total,Hillary Clinton was the most popular Democrat defeatingBernie Sanders 49 percent to 45 percent.[4] Clinton went on to defeat Sanders in the Democratic state primary by less than 1 percent.[5]
Source of results:Iowa Secretary of State[6]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Hillary Clinton | 1 | 1,338 | 49.19% | 1 | 49.84% | -- | -0.65% |
| Bernie Sanders | 2 | 1,217 | 44.17% | 2 | 49.59% | -- | +5.42% |
| Martin O'Malley | 3 | 127 | 4.67% | 3 | 0.54% | -- | -4.13% |
| Lincoln Chafee | 4 | 20 | 0.74% | Withdrawn | |||
| Jim Webb | 5 | 18 | 0.66% | Withdrawn | |||
Source of results:Iowa Secretary of State[7]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Donald Trump | 1 | 1,830 | 29.91% | 2 | 45,427 | 24.30% | -1 | -5.61% |
| Ben Carson | 2 | 1,185 | 19.37% | 4 | 17,395 | 9.30% | -2 | -10.07% |
| Ted Cruz | 3 | 543 | 8.88% | 1 | 43,165 | 27.64% | +2 | +14.24% |
| Carly Fiorina | 4 | 459 | 7.50% | 7 | 3,485 | 1.86% | -3 | -5.64% |
| Marco Rubio | 5 | 370 | 6.05% | 3 | 43,165 | 23.12% | +2 | +17.07% |
| Scott Walker | 6 | 324 | 5.30% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Jeb Bush | 7 | 312 | 5.10% | 6 | 5,238 | 2.80% | +1 | -2.30% |
| Bobby Jindal | 8 | 225 | 3.68% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Mike Huckabee | 9 | 188 | 3.07% | 9 | 3,345 | 1.79% | -- | -1.28% |
| Rand Paul | 10 | 182 | 2.97% | 5 | 8,481 | 4.54% | +5 | +1.57% |
| John Kasich | 11 | 160 | 2.62% | 8 | 3,474 | 1.86% | +3 | -0.76% |
| Rick Perry | 12 | 137 | 2.24% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Chris Christie | 13 | 66 | 1.08% | 10 | 3,284 | 1.76% | +3 | -0.68% |
| Rick Santorum | 14 | 65 | 1.06% | 11 | 1,783 | 0.95% | +3 | -0.11% |
| Lindsey Graham | 15 | 39 | 0.64% | Withdrawn | ||||
| George Pataki | 16 | 24 | 0.39% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Mark Everson | 17 | 8 | 0.13% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Jim Gilmore | 18 | 1 | 0.02% | 12 | 12 | 0.01% | +6 | -0.01% |
In 2019, theState Fair saw a record-setting attendance of just under 1.2 million people over the course of its 11-day run. The Straw Poll result was published on August 19, 2019. On the Republican side, in total 1,976 votes were cast for 2 candidates. On the Democratic side, there were 24 candidates listed in the presidential poll and 2,118 votes cast.[2][8]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Joe Biden | 1 | 374 | 17.7% | 4 | 26,291 | 14.9% | -3 | -2.8% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 2 | 364 | 17.2% | 3 | 32,589 | 18.5% | -1 | +1.3% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3 | 292 | 13.8% | 2 | 37,572 | 21.3% | +1 | +7.5% |
| Bernie Sanders | 4 | 215 | 10.2% | 1 | 43,581 | 24.7% | +3 | +14.5% |
| Kamala Harris | 5 | 178 | 8.4% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Cory Booker | 6 | 129 | 6.1% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Tulsi Gabbard | 7 | 101 | 4.8% | 9 | 341 | 0.2% | -2 | -4.6% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 8 | 73 | 3.5% | 5 | 22,454 | 12.7% | +3 | +9.2% |
| Tom Steyer | 9 | 60 | 2.8% | 7 | 3,061 | 1.7% | +2 | -1.1% |
| Andrew Yang | 10 | 58 | 2.7% | 6 | 8,914 | 5.1% | +3 | +2.4% |
| Beto O'Rourke | 11 | 46 | 2.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Marianne Williamson | 12 | 33 | 1.6% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Steve Bullock | 13 | 33 | 1.6% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Julian Castro | 14 | 32 | 1.5% | Withdrawn | ||||
| John Delaney | 15 | 26 | 1.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 16 | 22 | 1.0% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Michael Bennet | 17 | 19 | 0.9% | 10 | 164 | 1.0% | +7 | -0.1% |
| Bill de Blasio | 18 | 18 | 0.9% | Withdrawn | ||||
| John Hickenlooper | 19 | 14 | 0.7% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Jay Inslee | 20 | 11 | 0.5% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Tim Ryan | 21 | 7 | 0.3% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Seth Moulton | 22 | 5 | 0.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Joe Sestak | 23 | 4 | 0.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Wayne Messam | 24 | 4 | 0.2% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Donald Trump | 1 | 1,902 | 96.26% | 1 | 31,421 | 97.14% | -- | -0.88% |
| Bill Weld | 2 | 74 | 3.74% | 2 | 425 | 1.31% | -- | -2.43% |
Source of results:Iowa Secretary of State[9]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | |
| Joe Biden | 1 | 732 | 66.97% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 2 | 205 | 18.76% |
| Marianne Williamson | 3 | 156 | 14.27% |
Source of results:Iowa Secretary of State[9]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | Actual caucus results | Difference | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Votes | Percentage | Place | Percentage | |
| Donald Trump | 1 | 1,501 | 42.47% | 1 | 56,260 | 51.01% | -- | +8.54% |
| Ron DeSantis | 2 | 541 | 15.31% | 2 | 23,420 | 21.23% | -- | +5.92% |
| Tim Scott | 3 | 392 | 11.09% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4 | 331 | 9.37% | 4 | 8,449 | 7.66% | -- | -1.71% |
| Perry Johnson | 5 | 220 | 6.23% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Nikki Haley | 6 | 133 | 3.76% | 3 | 21,085 | 19.12% | +3 | +15.36% |
| Asa Hutchinson | 7 | 120 | 3.40% | 6 | 191 | 0.17% | +1 | -3.23% |
| Mike Pence | 8 | 97 | 2.74% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Doug Burgum | 9 | 96 | 2.72% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Will Hurd | 10 | 37 | 1.05% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Ryan Binkley | 11 | 27 | 0.76% | 5 | 774 | 0.70% | +6 | -0.06% |
| Francis Suarez | 12 | 23 | 0.65% | Withdrawn | ||||
| Larry Elder | 13 | 16 | 0.45% | Withdrawn | ||||
 | Parts of this article (those related to the comparison with the caucuses) need to beupdated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. Last update: February 2024(February 2024) |
Source of results:Iowa Secretary of State[9]
| Candidate | Straw poll results | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Votes | Percentage | |
| Chase Oliver | 1 (tied) | 27 | 18.88% |
| Raymond Dude Wagner | 1 (tied) | 27 | 18.88% |
| Aaron Avouris | 3 (tied) | 11 | 7.69% |
| Melissa Biondi | 3 (tied) | 11 | 7.69% |
| Hugo Valdez Garcia | 5 | 10 | 6.99% |
| David Reed DeSilva | 6 (tied) | 8 | 5.59% |
| Jon Stewart | 6 (tied) | 8 | 5.59% |
| David Dunlap | 8 (tied) | 6 | 4.20% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 8 (tied) | 6 | 4.20% |
| Kevin Babicz | 10 (tied) | 5 | 3.50% |
| Charles Griffith Ferry | 10 (tied) | 5 | 3.50% |
| Antonio Gagnon | 12 (tied) | 4 | 2.80% |
| Mike ter Maat | 12 (tied) | 4 | 2.80% |
| Russell DeLeon | 14 (tied) | 3 | 2.10% |
| Lars Mapstead | 14 (tied) | 3 | 2.10% |
| Joshua Rodriguez | 16 (tied) | 2 | 1.40% |
| Nathan J. Vaught Jr. | 16 (tied) | 2 | 1.40% |
| Seymour Art Lee | 18 | 1 | 0.70% |
| Beau Lindsey | 19 (tied) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Kevin Tucker | 19 (tied) | 0 | 0.00% |