| Formation | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Founded at | Imperial College London,Faculty of Medicine |
| Headquarters | London, England |
| Services | Reports relating to theCOVID-19 pandemic to inform governments and public health agencies around the world |
| Membership | 50 scientists |
Leader | ProfessorNeil Ferguson |
| Affiliations | MRC GIDA,Jameel Institute |
TheImperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group of experts fromImperial College London studying theCOVID-19 pandemic and informing thegovernment of the United Kingdom, and governments and public health agencies around the world.[1][2][3] The team comprises scientists from theMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, theJameel Institute, theImperial College Business School and the Department of Mathematics.[4] The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is led by ProfessorNeil Ferguson, Director of the Jameel Institute and MRC GIDA.[5][6]
On 16 March 2020 the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two-thirds of the time.[7] On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published.[8] It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised withCovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates.[8] As of 2 May 2021, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has produced 43 reports.[9]
| Population infected by country | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICCRT's model projection for 28 March[8] | WHO lab-confirmed 29 March | |||||
| Country | Infected (95%range) | Infected (mean %) | Cases (est.) | Cases | Detected (% of pop.) | |
| Austria | 0.36%–3.1% | 1.1% | 99000 | 8291 | 0.09% | |
| Belgium | 1.3%–9.7% | 3.7% | 428400 | 9134 | 0.08% | |
| Denmark | 0.40%–3.1% | 1.1% | 63600 | 2201 | 0.04% | |
| France | 1.1%–7.4% | 3.0% | 1956800 | 37145 | 0.06% | |
| Germany | 0.28%–1.8% | 0.72% | 603300 | 52547 | 0.06% | |
| Italy | 3.2%–26% | 9.8% | 5928600 | 92472 | 0.15% | |
| Norway | 0.09%–1.2% | 0.41% | 22200 | 3845 | 0.07% | |
| Spain | 3.7%–41% | 15% | 7015100 | 72248 | 0.15% | |
| Sweden | 0.85%–8.4% | 3.1% | 312500 | 3447 | 0.03% | |
| Switzerland | 1.3%–7.6% | 3.2% | 276400 | 13152 | 0.15% | |
| United Kingdom | 1.2%–5.4% | 2.7% | 1830700 | 17093 | 0.03% | |
| Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on 29 March, 10amCentral European Time. | ||||||
| Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies.[10] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unmitigated Scenario | Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week | Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week | ||||
| Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | |
| East Asia & Pacific | 2,117,131,000 | 15,303,000 | 92,544,000 | 442,000 | 632,619,000 | 3,315,000 |
| Europe & Central Asia | 801,770,000 | 7,276,000 | 61,578,000 | 279,000 | 257,706,000 | 1,397,000 |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 566,993,000 | 3,194,000 | 45,346,000 | 158,000 | 186,595,000 | 729,000 |
| Middle East & North Africa | 419,138,000 | 1,700,000 | 30,459,000 | 113,000 | 152,262,000 | 594,000 |
| North America | 326,079,000 | 2,981,000 | 17,730,000 | 92,000 | 90,529,000 | 520,000 |
| South Asia | 1,737,766,000 | 7,687,000 | 111,703,000 | 475,000 | 629,164,000 | 2,693,000 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1,044,858,000 | 2,483,000 | 110,164,000 | 298,000 | 454,968,000 | 1,204,000 |
| Total | 7,013,734,000 | 40,624,000 | 469,523,000 | 1,858,000 | 2,403,843,000 | 10,452,000 |
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