 Hurricane Juan at peak intensity south ofNova Scotia on September 27 | |
| Meteorological history | |
|---|---|
| Formed | September 24, 2003 (2003-09-24) |
| Dissipated | September 29, 2003 (2003-09-29) |
| Category 2 hurricane | |
| 1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS) | |
| Highest winds | 105 mph (165 km/h) |
| Lowest pressure | 969mbar (hPa); 28.61 inHg |
| Overall effects | |
| Fatalities | 8 |
| Damage | $200 million (2003USD) |
| Areas affected |
|
IBTrACS /[1] | |
Part of the2003 Atlantic hurricane season | |
Hurricane Juan was a significanttropical cyclone which caused extensive damage to parts ofAtlantic Canada, being the tenth named storm and the sixth hurricane of the2003 Atlantic hurricane season. Juan formed southeast ofBermuda on September 24 from atropical wave that had tracked across the subtropicalAtlantic Ocean. It tracked northward and strengthened over the warm waters of theGulf Stream, reaching Category 2 strength on theSaffir-Simpson hurricane scale on September 27. The hurricane peaked in intensity withsustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h) that same day, losing some strength as it raced over cooler waters toward the coast ofNova Scotia, before makinglandfall betweenShad Bay andProspect in theHalifax Regional Municipality early on September 29 as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph (160 km/h).[2] Juan retained hurricane strength while travelling through Nova Scotia, though it weakened into a Category 1 hurricane overPrince Edward Island. Juan was eventually absorbed by anotherextratropical low on September 29 nearAnticosti Island in the northernGulf of Saint Lawrence.
Juan inflicted extensive damage across central Nova Scotia and into Prince Edward Island, with lesser damage east and west of the storm centre. Most of the damage occurred as a result of the intense winds that buffeted the region. Juan's passage resulted in eight fatalities and over CA $300 million (US$200 million) in damage. It was described as the worst storm to hit Halifax since the1893 San Roque hurricane.[3][1] On account of its destructiveness, the nameJuan was retired from further use in the North Atlantic basin in 2004.
Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depressionA largetropical wave accompanied by a broadarea of low pressure moved off the coast ofAfrica on September 14, 2003. It initially tracked westward and remained disorganized due to unfavourable upper-levelwind shear.[2][4] On September 20, theconvection around the system greatly increased during interaction with the circulation of a large upper-level low, though unfavorable conditions caused the activity to remain disorganized. The system as a whole moved to the northwest around the upper-level low and developed a mid-level circulation. It interacted with afrontal zone,[2] and became better organized on September 23 while located 450 mi (720 km) south ofBermuda.[5] Later that day, a low-level circulation developed within the system, though its involvement with the proximate frontal zone prevented it from being classified atropical depression.Deep convection increased near the centre on September 24, and the system quickly developedbanding features and distinctoutflow. Based on the increase in organization, theNational Hurricane Center (NHC) classified it as Tropical Depression Fifteen later that day while it was located about 345 miles (555 km) southeast of Bermuda. Operationally, the agency did not initiate storm advisories until 27 hours after the time of its formation determined by post-hurricane season analysis.[2]
Initially, the depression possessed a combination oftropical andsubtropical characteristics; it remained attached to a nearby frontal zone, though the organization of theconvection and a warm core within the system resulted in classification as atropical cyclone.Forecasters had predicted the depression would only slowly strengthen and reach a peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h).[6] However, the depression steadily organized and had strengthened into Tropical Storm Juan by early September 25.[2] Juan moved northwestward at around 10 mph (16 km/h) in response to a developingsubtropical ridge to its east.[7] On September 26, aneye feature developed, andvery deep convection increased around the circulation.[8] The cloud pattern continued to consolidate, and Juan attained hurricane status later on September 26 while located 165 mi (266 km) southeast ofBermuda.[2] The hurricane moved into an area of warm waters and light wind shear, allowing for additional strengthening; by September 27, Juan had attained a peak intensity of 105 mph (169 km/h) while located 635 mi (1,022 km) south ofHalifax, Nova Scotia. At this peak strength, the eye of the hurricane was distinct and embedded within a well-defined and roundcentral dense overcast.[9]
Hurricane Juan remained at peak intensity for over 24 hours. After moving northwestward for an extended period of time, it turned and accelerated to the north.[2] Theeye became less distinct on September 28, and the hurricane weakened slightly. Due to its fast forward motion, Juan had little time to weaken over significantly colder waters before makinglandfall betweenShad Bay andProspect (near Halifax) on September 29 with winds of 100 mph (160 km/h).[2][10] It weakened quickly while rapidly moving across the southernCanadian Maritimes and crossing theNova Scotia peninsula as a hurricane. Juan had diminished to a tropical storm as it moved overPrince Edward Island by early September 29. The storm tracked northwards across theNorthumberland Strait, making landfall near the community ofBorden-Carleton and crossed Prince Edward Island in less than an hour.[3] Later that afternoon, the storm was absorbed by a largeextratropical low over the northwesternGulf of Saint Lawrence.[2]
During Juan's formative stages, the Bermuda Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning late on September 25, and kept the advisory for the island until the next day.[2] Due to the potential for strong winds,The Causeway was closed, ferry service was cancelled, and some schools were closed.[11] However, winds on the island remained below gale-force.[12]
The first advisories were issued by theCanadian Hurricane Centre on September 26, although at that time they broadly suggested the possibility existed for wind and rain acrossAtlantic Canada.[13] As Juan approached on September 27, warning broadcasts on local media inAtlantic Canada were changed accordingly. The public andemergency officials in the expectedlandfall area were told to make preparations for a potentialdisaster, after theCHC bulletins indicated the possibility existed for significant wind damage andflooding from both heavyrain andstorm surges, as well aspower outages.[14]
On the morning of September 28, reports indicated that Juan would make landfall either as a tropical storm or marginal Category 1 hurricane.[15]Weather broadcasts up to that time gave every indication that the storm would weaken prior to landfall. By 6 p.m.ADT (2100UTC), additionalwarnings had been issued since Juan was expected to make landfall as a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane.[16] Most businesses in the areas affected wereclosed on Sundays, which meant that preparations could not be made at the last minute.[17] Although no large-scaleevacuations were made, local evacuations for low-lying areas were issued on the evening of September 28. In all, several hundred people were affected by these evacuations.Utility workers also stood on standby before the storm hit, preparing for large-scalepower outages.[18]
Hurricane Juan's maximum sustained wind speed at landfall inNova Scotia was measured at 160 km/h (100 mph).[2] The urban concentration surroundingHalifax Harbour bore the brunt of the highest sustained winds and strongest windgusts during the storm; some unofficial estimates have placed gusts as high as 145 mph (233 km/h).[19] Wave-riderweather buoys off the entrance ofHalifax Harbour snapped their moorings after reportedly recordingwaves in excess of 65 ft (20 m). Significanterosion occurred on the populated shores of the harbour, particularly in theBedford Basin where residential properties andrailway tracks received most of the wave action.Storm surges of 5 to 7 feet (1.5 to 2.1 m) were reported in the harbour; it was the highest surge ever recorded in Halifax Harbour.[20]Rainfall was fairly light due to the fast movement and dry air on the southern side of the storm. There were no rainfall reports greater than 51 millimetres (2 in).[21]
Juan caused widespread structural andvegetation damage across the region, particularly in and around theHalifax Regional Municipality. Extensive damage totrees was reported, which blocked many streets and knocked downpower lines. Many homes and businesses suffered property damage, particularly roof damage on structures, and some weaker structures were destroyed.[3] HRM estimated that 31% of residential homes suffered some degree of damage and 27% of homes had enough damage to warrant aninsurance claim.[22] InDowntown Halifax, erosion-control boulders the size ofgarbage cans were hurled fromHalifax Harbour ontoboardwalks andparking lots andpiers. TheVictoria General Hospital experienced roof and water damage and was evacuated during the storm, as were numerous tall apartment buildings and other multi-family residences.[23]Billboards andsigns were also destroyed, and dozens of vehicles were crushed by trees and other debris.[3] The city's cherishedPoint Pleasant Park andPublic Gardens suffered massive loss of trees and remained closed for months.[24][25]
Juan set an all-time maximum wind gust speed record at theHalifax Stanfield International Airport; during the peak of the storm, a gust reached 143 km/h, a record which still stands to this day. Another high windspeed occurred at theMcNabs Island autostation, which recorded a 2-minute sustained wind of 151 km/h, with gusts to 176 km/h. Hurricane-force gusts extended as far east asBeaver Island, where gusts reached 132 km/h. The hurricane was strong enough to destroy theanemometers at Shannon Hill,Chebucto Head and Sambro Island, even though the Sambro Island instrument had survived a 193 km/h storm some years earlier.[26]
The hurricane caused severe damage to shipping inHalifax Harbour. A visiting recreationalschooner namedLarinda was sunk at the wharf beside theMaritime Museum of the Atlantic and a harbour tour ketchMar was driven ashore in Eastern Passage on the opposite side of Halifax Harbour. Another harbour tour vessel, the tern schoonerSilva, broke from hermoorings and caused extensive damage to the Cable Wharf on theHalifax Waterfront. Dozens of smalleryachts were also driven ashore; extensive damage occurred toyacht clubs in theBedford Basin andNorthwest Arm. Dozens ofcontainers were knocked off twocontainer ships at the South EndContainer Terminal.Wharves on theHalifax andDartmouth waterfront suffered large amounts of damage and severalrailcars were washed into the harbour at the Dartmouthrailway yard; one of the tracks for the double-track main line was washed out in several places along the Bedford Basin near Millview.Coastal flooding was also reported aroundHalifax Harbour as a result of thestorm surge,[20] although inlandflooding was minor asrainfall was not heavy due to Juan's fast forward movement.[3]
Less severe property damage was recorded west of the storm's track intoSt. Margarets Bay andMahone Bay. In addition toHalifax Regional Municipality's urban core, the town ofTruro and all of ruralColchester County as well as the western part ofPictou County experienced property damage andpower outages from falling trees; numerousbarns and other agricultural buildings were damaged east of the storm's path, including a replica of theHector inPictou Harbour.[3] The severity of property damage in the metropolitan areas ofHalifax andDartmouth of Halifax Regional Municipality initially led someforecasters to believe that Juan was likely a Category 3 hurricane; however, the sustained wind reports did not justify that suggestion. Many of the deciduous trees in centralNova Scotia still had leaves, which magnified the effects of wind damage.[27] Overall, the number of damaged trees was estimated to be in the millions.[3]
Juan claimed six lives (two directly) in Nova Scotia. Both of the direct deaths were due to fallen trees; one was a Halifaxparamedic and the other was a motorist inEnfield.[3][28] Three of the four indirect deaths were as a result of ahouse fire started bycandles whenelectricity was cut, and the fourth was in relief work after the storm.[3]
The storm maintained Category 1 strength as it tracked across Nova Scotia and into the Northumberland Strait, weakening to a tropical storm as it emerged into theGulf of Saint Lawrence.Wind gusts of 86 mph (138 km/h) were reported inCharlottetown[1] and 67 mph (108 km/h) in theMagdalen Islands in theGulf of Saint Lawrence.[2]
Damage was also reported inPrince Edward Island as a result of the storm, particularly around Charlottetown, where its waterfront sustained heavy wave damage topleasure craft andsea walls, as well as significant damage to the olderurban forest in that city's downtown core. Extensive tree damage was also reported across theisland, as well as structural damage to weaker buildings, such asbarns andsilos.[3] The hurricane left portions of the island without power.[29] The narrow path meant that damage was quite localized; little damage was reported inNew Brunswick or western Prince Edward Island.[30] Voting in thePEI general election on September 29 was also disrupted, though more than 80% of voters made it topolling stations.[31]
Two deaths were reported in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence off the remoteAnticosti Island inQuebec. They were fishermen from New Brunswick operating near Anticosti Island.[3]
In the hours following the storm astate of emergency was declared in Halifax Regional Municipality and parts of neighbouringEast Hants Municipal District andColchester County. TheGovernment of Nova Scotia requested that thefederal government deploy 600Canadian Forces personnel to assist local authorities inHRM with clean-up in the urban area and to assist utility crews withelectrical power restoration.[32] Many utility workers, especially those employed byNova Scotia Power and the dozens of crews fromMaritime Electric andNB Power who responded under mutual assistance agreements, worked intensively for almost three weeks.[3] Nova Scotia power reported that they had restored power to the last of their affected customers by October 12, 2 weeks after the storm had passed.[3]
The devastatedPoint Pleasant Park remained closed for clean-up after the storm before re-opening in June 2004, nine months after the storm hit, with a damagedshoreline and almost 85% of its trees removed. A revitalization andreforestation program began in 2005.[33]
The Government of Nova Scotia pledged $10 million (2003CAD) in relief money after the hurricane hit, and private contributions were also made quickly after the storm hit.[34]Prince Edward Island also pledged $200,000 (2003CAD) immediately after the hurricane hit,[35] and the federal government also announced their own package.[36] TheMayor of Toronto at the time,Mel Lastman, also contributed $50,000 (2003CAD) to replace damaged trees in Prince Edward Island.[37]
Hurricane Juan alerted residents, governments, utilities, and emergency management agencies throughoutAtlantic Canada to improve preparations for devastating events such as hurricanes, especially with climatological data pointing to possible increased frequency of major ocean storms andextratropical cyclones. In addition to Juan, three other storms —Fabian,Isabel andKate — had a significant effect on land or offshore inCanada during the2003 Atlantic hurricane season.[38]
Preparations and planning have been underway since 2003 and were first tested whenHurricane Ophelia was forecast to brush nearNova Scotia in early September 2005.[39] Hurricane Juan has also resulted in several changes to theMeteorological Service of Canada'sCanadian Hurricane Centre, which has relocated from a vulnerable and exposed location in an office building inDartmouth, Nova Scotia, to a more secure location that can withstand hurricane damage.CHC'shurricane warning system has also been improved; traditionally, CHC did not issue standard hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings, just high wind andheavy rainfall warnings, which were often not heeded by local residents. Beginning in the2004 Atlantic hurricane season, CHC began using standard hurricane warnings for storms potentially affecting Canada.[40]
Hurricane Juan lent its name to a severeblizzard that struck Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island a few months later in February 2004 which quickly became known asWhite Juan because the paralyzing effects of the massive snowfall evoked the recent hurricane.[41]
At the request ofEnvironment Canada, theWorld Meteorological Organization retired the nameJuan in the spring of 2004, and it will never again be used for a North Atlantic tropical cyclone. It was replaced withJoaquin for the2009 season.[42][43][44]
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